Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2010-04-29 09:49:14
Ausgabe 89
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36713115/ns/us_news-environment/
Zitat:
Manmade emissions of carbon dioxide are making our oceans more acidic — and thus threatening corals and shellfish — at a rate unseen in at least 800,000 years, a blue-ribbon panel of scientists reported Thursday.
[...]
"The average pH of ocean surface waters has decreased by about 0.1 unit — from about 8.2 to 8.1 — since the beginning of the industrial revolution," the scientists said in noting earlier research. Moreover, models project "an additional 0.2-0.3 drop by the end of the century, even under optimistic scenarios," they added.

"It is important to note that the concentration of atmospheric CO2 is rising too rapidly for natural ... processes to maintain the pH of the ocean," the experts stated. "As a consequence, the average pH of the ocean will continue to decrease as the surface ocean absorbs more atmospheric CO2."


Soweit nichts Unerwartetes oder Neues, aber neu ist die Untersuchung über die Auswirkung auf Austern:

Zitat:Brian Gaylord, a biological oceanographer at the Bodega Marine Laboratory of the University of California at Davis, looked at the impact of more acidic oceans on larval and juvenile Olympia oysters.
Even with small changes in acidity, seawater becomes corrosive to the shells of marine organisms. "Similar to what happens in carbonated soda, increasing carbon dioxide in seawater makes it more acidic," he said in a statement summarizing his research,

His testing used lab seawater with present-day CO2 ocean concentrations, as well as lab seawater that used higher CO2 levels that scientists say could occur by 2100.

In the higher CO2 environment, the larval shells at day 9 of their growth were 16 percent smaller than those reared in the present-day seawater conditions.

A week later, the difference was 41 percent and the smaller oysters never caught up.

"One and a half months after being transferred back to normal seawater, juveniles that had come from the high carbon dioxide environment were still 28 percent smaller than oysters reared for the entire experiment in control conditions," Gaylord said.


Austern in saurerem Seewasser wuchsen in den ersten 16 Tagen 41% weniger als die in der Kontrollgruppe, und holten das auch nicht auf, als sie in normales Meerwasser gesetzt wurden.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/04/15/tech/main6398470.shtml
Zitat:Researchers are warning of a new blight on the ocean: a swirl of confetti-like plastic debris stretching over thousands of square miles in a remote expanse of the Atlantic Ocean.

The floating garbage - hard to spot from the surface and spun together by a vortex of currents - was documented by two groups of scientists who trawled the sea between scenic Bermuda and Portugal's mid-Atlantic Azores islands.

The studies describe a soup of micro-particles similar to the so-called Great Pacific Garbage Patch, a phenomenon discovered a decade ago between Hawaii and California that researchers say is likely to exist in other places around the globe.

"We found the great Atlantic garbage patch," said Anna Cummins, who collected plastic samples on a sailing voyage in February.


Der Pazifik (siehe Floating rubbish dump 'bigger than US') hat nicht mehr alleine die zweifelhafte Ehre, eine Plastikmüllhalde zu sein.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/business/energy-environment/26iht-green.html
Zitat:True, in terms of carbon dioxide — which is at the center of public attention these days — ships are a comparatively efficient mode of commercial transport, with far fewer emissions per ton of goods per kilometer than heavy trucks or aircraft.

But with shipping volumes up about 50 percent in the past 20 years, and now accounting for about 90 percent of global trade, that is a lot of CO2 emissions: 3 percent of the global total, comparable to the level of a major national economy, according to the International Chamber of Shipping.

Perhaps even more worrying, though, is the other nasty stuff contained in bunker fuel, like nitrogen, sulfur and particulate matter — tiny particles that can penetrate deep into the lung when inhaled. Academic studies have estimated that 15 percent of global nitrogen oxides and between 5 and 8 percent of global sulfur oxide emissions are attributable to oceangoing ships. Health experts have long linked such pollution to respiratory illnesses, cardiopulmonary disorders and lung cancers, particularly among people who live near heavy ship traffic.


Zitat:The problem — from the point of view of those who breathe it — is that bunker fuel is cheap, giving shippers a huge incentive to use it: Cleaner fuel can cost twice as much, depending on the quality. Moreover, the price of oil has risen again as the global economy has begun to recover, sending up fuel bills, which make up about 20 or 30 percent of shipping companies’ operating costs.

Ok, es ist dreckig, aber wenigstens ist es billig!!!

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/smog-in-a-rural-valley-a-mystery-is-solved/
Zitat:The smog in California’s San Joaquin Valley has puzzled scientists for years. Even though the region is largely rural and agricultural, its smog levels exceed those of densely populated cities like Los Angeles.

Some have speculated that animal waste or pesticides are the cause: both emit ozone, a primary ingredient in smog. But a recent study published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology suggests that the primary culprit is actually cattle feed.

Researchers found that animal feed is the largest emitter of ozone in the valley, at 25 tons per day, followed by motor vehicles at 14 tons.


Smog durch Tierhaltung - faszinierend.

http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/apr2010/2010-04-26-01.html
Zitat:Nearly one million people around the world died from exposure to radiation released by the 1986 nuclear disaster at the Chernobyl reactor, finds a new book from the New York Academy of Sciences published today on the 24th anniversary of the meltdown at the Soviet facility.
[...]
Their findings are in contrast to estimates by the World Health Organization and the International Atomic Energy Agency that initially said only 31 people had died among the "liquidators," those approximately 830,000 people who were in charge of extinguishing the fire at the Chernobyl reactor and deactivation and cleanup of the site.

The book finds that by 2005, between 112,000 and 125,000 liquidators had died.
[...]
Drawing upon extensive data, the authors estimate the number of deaths worldwide due to Chernobyl fallout from 1986 through 2004 was 985,000, a number that has since increased.

By contrast, WHO and the IAEA estimated 9,000 deaths and some 200,000 people sickened in 2005.


http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/04/21/f-vp-stewart.html
Zitat:Consider that on any given week 30 to 40 sophisticated warships from more than a dozen nations — the U.S., Canada, the European Union and Asia, including China — are scouring the Red Sea and Indian Ocean for these small-boat corsairs.

But no matter how many destroyers, frigates and accompanying helicopters are deployed, an estimated 1,500 pirates in hundreds of smaller craft are sailing circles around them.

Instead of decreasing, as expected, pirate attacks appear to be enjoying an unprecedented bonanza.

Today, as many as 200 commercial ships are being attacked each year, with up to 50 being hijacked along with all their crews.

Most shipping owners quickly pay up the demanded ransoms, which have earned pirates an estimated $150 million a year, according to international shipping authorities.


Zitat:As Admiral Mark Fitzgerald, commander of all U.S. Naval Forces in Europe and Africa complained recently: "We could put fleets of ships out there, we could put a World War II-size fleet of ships out there and we still wouldn't be able to cover the whole ocean."

The admiral is right about the sheer vastness of the area now threatened. By using larger mother ships, the pirate carry their fast attack boats well beyond East African shores.

Recently there have been sea-hijackings close to India and as far south as Mozambique.

This month, a South Korean super-tanker, with $200 million worth of crude oil, was seized by pirates over 600 nautical miles off the coast of Africa.


600 nautical miles = 1000 KM.

Zitat:
So far this year alone, Somali pirates have held 20 captured vessels and 242 crew, while the price of freeing them was negotiated.

The pirates themselves face relatively low risk if caught. As few countries want to try them and house them in their jails, they are generally released at sea. Little wonder there's no shortage of those willing to sign on.

Frustrated by the inability to destroy piracy, the U.S. is now calling on allies to go after the profits from the crime.

It believes there are seven large syndicates operating in Somalia, Kenya, Dubai and Lebanon, which organize these pirates. These syndicates have been buying up prime real estate in regional cities from Nairobi to Addis Ababa.

Bei dieser Gelegenheit möchte ich auch auf die Weltkarte der Piraterie 2009 von www.icc-ccs.org hinweisen:

http://www.icc-ccs.org/index.p [verkürzt] ation.googlemap&Itemid=261
Piraterie auf den Weltmeeren
Der Rollover zeigt die Karte von 2008 - man sieht, Piraterie ist ein Wachstumsmarkt.


http://www.arpllp.com/core_files/The%20Absolute%20Return%20Letter%200410%281%29.pdf
Zitat:Another argument frequently put forward by the inflationary camp is that
governments will be forced to inflate their way out. They have no
alternative because they cannot afford otherwise. I am not convinced it is
that simple. Morgan Stanley published a very interesting research report
recently in which they made the observation that nearly half of all US
budget outlays are now effectively indexed to inflation 2 . The obvious
implication of this simple fact is that it is no longer possible for the US
government to inflate its way out of its deep deficit hole, however tempting
that may be. We should also learn from the Japanese experience.

They have made repeated attempts to inflate their debt away in recent
years but have found it much more difficult than anybody would have
anticipated. The inescapable conclusion is that when you need inflation the
most, it is the hardest to engineer whereas, when you don’t want it, you can
have it in spades
.


Laut MS sei fast die Hälfte der Ausgaben im US-Budget inflationsgekoppelt. Das und die Tatsache, daß auch Japan es in 20 Jahren nicht geschafft hat, Inflation herbei zu führen, läßt darauf schließen, daß Inflation nicht kommt, wenn man sie braucht, sondern wenn man sie nicht braucht Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/0,1518,689534,00.html
Zitat:Die Deutsche Bank hat große Probleme mit Fonds, die vor allem in Gewerbe-Immobilien in den USA investieren. Im Dezember musste sie nach SPIEGEL-Informationen den Rreef America Reit III mit frischen Krediten retten, der seinen Investoren einen Verlust von mindestens 65 Prozent bescherte.

Die Deutsche Bank ist an dem 2,6-Milliarden-Dollar-Fonds, der unter anderem in Wolkenkratzer in Philadelphia und Büros im Silicon Valley investiert hatte, mit knapp zehn Prozent beteiligt. Das restliche Geld sammelte Rreef, die US-Anlagegesellschaft der Deutschen Bank, bei US-Pensionsfonds ein. Diese beklagen vereinzelt einen Verlust von bis zu 82 Prozent.


http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/0,1518,689302,00.html
Zitat:Nach Fehlinvestitionen in den USA, Deutschland und Japan hat ein internationaler Fonds einer Immobilientochter von Goldman Sachs Chart zeigen einem Zeitungsbericht zufolge nahezu sein gesamtes Eigenkapital eingebüßt.

Von 1,8 Milliarden Dollar (1,3 Milliarden Euro) seien beim Whitehall Street International nur noch 30 Millionen Dollar übrig, berichtete die "Financial Times Deutschland" ("FTD"). Goldman Sachs als größter Anteilseigner habe 436 Millionen Dollar in den Fonds investiert. Ein Sprecher der Bank wollte den Bericht nicht kommentieren.


http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/0,1518,688950,00.html
Zitat:Es ist ein Schock für Anleger der US-Großbank Morgan Stanley: Ein Immobilienfonds des Instituts hat laut einem Zeitungsbericht wahrscheinlich rund zwei Drittel seiner Gelder verloren. Dies entspreche 5,4 Milliarden Dollar, schreibt das "Wall Street Journal". Als Grund gibt die Zeitung "misslungene Investments" an.

Wie gut, daß die Krise vorbei ist, sonst würde ich mir Sorgen machen, weil dieses Stützen von irgendwelchen Fonds mich so an Bear Stearns im Sommer 2007 erinnert...

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/:abnehmende-liquiditaet-iberische-banken-trocknen-aus/50107377.html
Zitat:Der Flächenbrand in Südeuropa schlägt jetzt voll auf die Banken in Spanien und Portugal durch: Sie kommen wegen der Schuldenkrise beider Länder am Kapitalmarkt nicht mehr an frische Liquidität heran.

Der Grund sind die steigenden Risikoaufschläge auf spanische und portugiesische Staatspapiere, die auch die Kosten für Pfandbriefe und Anleihen der Banken in die Höhe treiben - so sehr, dass die Institute Neuemissionen von Schuldtiteln gar nicht erst wagen.

Selbst der Handel mit bereits umlaufenden Bankanleihen aus Spanien und Portugal stockt. "Der Handel ist zur Zeit extrem schwierig. Die Lage erinnert stark an die Situation, als der Markt von der US-Hypothekenkrise getroffen wurde", sagte Michael Arnold, Händler der BHF-Bank.

Zitat:Das Schicksal von Lehman Brothers dürften sie zwar nicht erleiden. Das US-Haus war kollabiert, weil kein anderes Institut mehr bereit war, Liquidität zu stellen und Lehman nicht auf Geld der US-Notenbank zurückgreifen konnte. Die iberischen Institute dagegen können Wertpapiere bei der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) einreichen und erhalten dafür Liquidität, um ihre Geschäfte am Laufen zu halten. Dass sie keine privaten Käufer finden und Anleiheverkäufe scheuen, ist aber ein dramatisches Zeichen des Vertrauensverlustes.
Wie stark ihre Refinanzierung von der Zentralbank abhängt, zeigen Daten vom März: Im vergangenen Monat hatten spanische Banken 15,7 Prozent aller EZB-Gelder abgesogen, die die Notenbank zur Verfügung stellte. Vor Beginn der Finanzkrise vor drei Jahren waren es noch weniger als fünf Prozent gewesen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7632366/Maastricht-madhouse-fuels-EMU-wide-contagion-from-Greece.html
Zitat:The relief rally fizzled shortly after Greece folded its bad poker hand and invoked aid. Bond risk as measured by Markit's 5-year credit default swaps jumped to fresh records of 280 for Portugal and 177 for Spain. Irish CDS contracts rose 13 points to 185.

This was an entirely logical response to the twisted events that are unfolding. The rescue obliges countries in trouble to go deeper into trouble. Portugal must come up with €774m as its share of the EU's initial €30bn package. Ireland must find €491m, Spain €3.7bn.


Gna... 16% der Griechenland-Rettung sollen die drei anderen Pleitekandidaten auftreiben. Ob das funktionieren kann? Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

Zitat:Yields on 10-year Portuguese bonds hit 4.94pc, a whisker shy of the 5pc rate that Lisbon must relend to Greece. Meanwhile, safe-haven Germany can borrow at just over 3pc. The bail-out cost falls hardest on those that can least afford it. It deepens the North-South divide that lies at the root of Europe's crisis.

In der Tat: Ausgerechnet für die anderen Pleitekandidaten ist das Geschäft keines...

Zitat:No country in Western Europe has defaulted since the Second World War. More than €7 trillion has been lent to Club Med states, banks and homeowners in the belief that it cannot happen. EMU shut the warning signals, disguising risk. What investors overlooked is that currency risk mutates into default risk in a monetary union.
[...]
A country such as Portugal with total debt of 300pc of GDP, a current account deficit of 11.2pc, and a budget deficit of 9.4pc should not think it has the luxury to trim spending at a leisurely pace. Portugal has an ugly choice. If it tightens hard to soothe bond markets, it too risks depression. EMU's Faustian Pact is closing in.

Lehman war Kleinkram verglichen mit Südeuropa.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,689766,00.html
Schäuble im Spiegel-Interview - das ich übrigens nicht auf Deutsch gefunden habe:
Zitat:Schäuble: I'm a firm believer in the monetary union. At the time, I felt exactly the same way as the current president. The only problem is that the world has changed. The capital market has become globalized to a degree that we couldn't have imagined at the time. And we have experienced a financial crisis from which we in Europe must draw a clear lesson: We cannot allow the bankruptcy of a euro member state like Greece to turn into a second Lehman Brothers.

SPIEGEL: You are exaggerating. In past years, it's happened again and again that a country couldn't pay its debts, and yet that hasn't led to a collapse of the global financial system. Why should this be different in Greece's case?

Schäuble: Because Greece is a member of the European monetary union. Greece's debts are all denominated in euros, but it isn't clear who holds how much of those debts. For that reason, the consequences of a national bankruptcy would be incalculable. Greece is just as systemically important as a major bank.


WOW. Es gibt also keinen Weg herauszufinden, wer der Gläubiger der Griechen ist.
Woran könnte das liegen? Inkompetenz vielleicht? Sehr geehrter Herr Schäuble, es wäre ihre Aufgabe gewesen, dafür zu sorgen, daß in den Finanzmarkt Transparenz kommt.

Abgesehen davon: Die Konsequenzen eines Staatsbankrotts sind natürlich kalkulierbar. Und im Falle Griechenlands sowieso.

Zitat:Schäuble: You know, many things can happen very quickly in times of crisis. It was the same thing during the financial crisis two years ago. Just think how quickly international cooperation happened and the bailout laws were enacted.

Don't you mean "how long nothing at all has happened"?

Zitat:SPIEGEL: Now German taxpayers will play a particularly important role. Does the Greece package jeopardize your budget planning?

Schäuble: Not at all. We're talking about a loan, which will earn a decent rate of interest. If all goes well, the German state will even turn a profit.

SPIEGEL: You don't even believe that yourself. If Greece is unable to repay its debts in full, it will come at the taxpayers' expense.

Schäuble: The risk is manageable. The package will consist of loans issued by the (German state bank) KfW, which the federal government guarantees. We don't need a supplementary budget for that. However, we will introduce a law that will have to be ratified by (the German parliament) the Bundestag.


KfW: SIV / Repo 105 / Schattenhaushalt des deutschen Staats => sofort abschaffen!

Gruß, Uwe


http://defensetech.org/2010/04/23/german-soldiers-in-afghanistan-wear-their-protest-on-their-sleeve/#axzz0m8JRgJ9e
Nicht ganz die offizielle Lesart, glaube ich
Zitat:Afghan commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal is in Germany at the moment where he might need to help the government there with a bit of messaging on Afghanistan.
German troops have been buying up badges saying “I Fight For Merkel,” an ironic jab at German Chancellor Angela Merkel who they say has failed to explain why German troops are fighting and dying in Afghanistan. The protest badges have reportedly sent shock waves through the Bundeswehr leadership.

McChrystal ist zwar eben nicht ein Afghane, aber sei's drum: Bundeswehrtruppen scheinen ein Problem damit zu haben, ihre Meinung linientreu politisch korrekt auszudrücken.

http://www.ftd.de/politik/deutschland/:aufgeschobene-gesetze-arbeitslose-muessen-auf-griechen-warten/50103095.html
Zitat:Die Auswirkungen der Misere des Mittelmeerstaats haben Deutschland längst erreicht. Für eventuelle Hilfen an das schuldengeplagte Griechenland riskiert die Bundesregierung einen Konflikt mit den Ländern und gebeutelten Langzeitarbeitslosen.

Die gesetzliche Grundlage für die Hilfen soll als Änderungsantrag an ein ganzes Bündel anderer Gesetze gehängt werden, die eigentlich in dieser Woche im Bundestag verabschiedet werden sollten. Zu diesen Gesetzen, die nun auf unbestimmte Zeit warten müssen, zählen die Härtefallregelungen für Hartz-IV-Empfänger und das Zukunftsinvestitionsgesetz, das den Ländern Investitionen aus dem Konjunkturpaket II erleichtern sollte.
[...]
Nun sollen alle Gesetzesvorhaben warten, bis Griechenland einen Antrag auf Hilfe stellt. Dies könnte möglicherweise noch Wochen dauern. Danach müsste auch zum Griechenland-Gesetz erneut eine Anhörung stattfinden und am Ende auch der Bundesrat zustimmen. Andererseits zeigen die Vorbereitungen der Bundesregierung auch, dass Hilfen für Griechen immer näher rücken.


Was in aller Welt hat Griechenland mit Hartz IV zu tun?

Außer daß beide irgendwie durch die inkompetente deutsche Politik verquickt werden, natürlich?


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/failed-bund-auction-having-spillover-effects-europe
Zitat:Germany's €3 billion ($4.03 billion) offer of its 30-year bund was undersubscribed at an auction Wednesday, something analysts traced to a possible combination of pricing terms, European debt jitters and heavy market supply.

The German government sold €2.458 billion of the 4.75% July 2040-dated bund at an average yield of 3.83%. Its €3 billion offer, however, attracted only €2.752 billion in bids.

The German debt agency played down the failure to get a full allotment, the first for any German government bond for more than a year. "Underbidding happens once in a while—we don't have a problem with it," Joerg Mueller, a spokesman at the agency, said. Mr. Mueller dismissed some speculation in the markets that higher inflation expectations may have generated disappointment in the yield on offer.


Nun, immerhin muß noch nicht, wie in den USA, die eigene Notenbank 80% des Rotzes aufkaufen.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2010-04/27/content_9781451.htm
Zitat:Over 40 percent of the Bolivian territory is affected by desertification caused by climate change, population increase and indiscriminate forest felling, the Science and Technology Ministry said Monday.

The ministry said in a statement that the problem is becoming more serious each year, which puts at risk the food security of the country.

"The desertification in Bolivia affects 41 percent of the national territory, 439,432 square km, where 77 percent of the national inhabitants live, some 6.4 million people," the ministry said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=a8CAU0AUv184
Zitat:Inflation in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unexpectedly slowed in April as prices for vacation homes and package holidays fell after the Easter break, offsetting the impact of higher energy costs.

The inflation rate, calculated using a harmonized European Union method, fell to 1 percent from 1.2 percent in March, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists had expected it to rise to 1.3 percent, the median of 23 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey showed.

Oil prices have risen 67 percent in the past year as the global economy pulled out of a recession. Still, growth in Europe remains muted as companies cut costs to bolster profits and higher unemployment makes consumers reluctant to spend. The earlier timing of Easter this year also made holiday-related services cheaper in comparison with April last year.

“The Easter bunny effect, when Germans went on holiday, was in March and now we’re seeing the absence of that,” said Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Group in Brussels. “The broader picture is that this year is about deflationary, not inflationary, trends.”

Consumer prices fell 0.1 percent from March, today’s report showed.


Wir haben also fallende Preise und Inflation gleichzeitig Bild: Lächelndes/zwinkerndes Gesicht

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=51089
Zitat:An opinion survey of Afghanistan's Kandahar province funded by the U.S. Army has revealed that 94 percent of respondents support negotiating with the Taliban over military confrontation with the insurgent group and 85 percent regard the Taliban as "our Afghan brothers".

The survey, conducted by a private U.S. contractor last December, covered Kandahar City and other districts in the province into which Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal is planning to introduce more troops in the biggest operation of the entire war. Those districts include Arghandab, Zhari, rural Kandahar and Panjwayi.

Afghan interviewers conducted the survey only in areas which were not under Taliban control.

Zitat:Fifty-eight percent of the respondents in the survey said the biggest threat to their security while traveling were the ANA and ANP checkpoints on the road, and 56 percent said ANA/ANP vehicles were the biggest threat. Only 44 percent identified roadside bombs as the biggest threat – the same percentage of respondents who regard convoys of the International Security Assistance Force – the NATO command under Gen. McChrystal – as the primary threat to their security.

Zitat:More than half the respondents (53 percent) endorsed the statement that the Taliban are "incorruptible".

"Corruption" is a term that is often understood to include not only demands for payments for services and passage through checkpoints but violence by police against innocent civilians.


Angesichts der Prozentzahlen könnten Zweifel an der Legitimität der ganzen Sache aufkommen...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canadas-brewing-debt-storm/article1537623/
Zitat:Now, mortgage rates are beginning to creep up and the Bank of Canada is poised to retreat from the record-low interest rates it adopted to fight the recession and spur recovery.
[...]
Household debt has surged three time faster than income in recent years and now stands at a record high of more than $1-trillion. Put another way, Canadians owe about $1.47 for every dollar of disposable income. Even more remarkably, they took on more debt during the slump – a first for a recession – because borrowing was so cheap.
[...]
For some, the trouble has already begun. John Silver, who runs Community Financial Counselling Services in Winnipeg, has seen his caseload increase 20 per cent from last year. “We re seeing more people coming in with more stress with regard to their debt,” he said.
[...]
Most of the increased debt, roughly 70 per cent, has been in mortgages, reflecting the still hot housing market in much of the country. That has left many households struggling to meet monthly payments on hefty mortgages and more susceptible to rising rates. Families in Vancouver, for example, spend about 68 per cent of their disposable income on the cost of maintaining their house, compared to less than 40 per cent 10 years ago.
[...]
    * 68%: Average amount of disposable income households in Vancouver spend on the cost of a home
* 44%: Average in Toronto
* 35%: Average in Calgary
* 36%: Average in Montreal
* 30%: Average in Ottawa
* 21%: Percentage of Canadians who say they can’t manage their debt load
* 147%: Debt-to-income ratio in Canada, a record high
* 157%: Debt-to-income ratio in the United States
* 70%: Percentage of debt held in mortgages in Canada

Auch da wurde getanzt, so lange die Musik spielte.

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/15042010/6/finance-canada-home-resales-rise-march-new-listings.html
Zitat:Sales of existing homes in Canada climbed 1.4 percent in March from the month before, while a rise in new listings pointed to a more balanced housing market, the Canadian Real Estate Association said on Thursday.

The industry group said a total of 43,621 homes changed hands on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, boosted by strong activity in the Toronto and Ottawa markets, which more than offset a decline in activity in Vancouver that was possibly due to the Winter Olympics.

The increase in listings has created less of a buying frenzy than last year when demand was high and supply was short -- which pushed prices higher and fed debate about whether there was a housing bubble in the making.

"After a blistering supply-starved recovery, Canada's housing market is gradually returning to balance," said Robert Kavcic, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Nearly 100,000 homes were listed during March, up 20 percent from a year ago, CREA said, bringing the total new listings to a first-quarter record of 233,402.


März 2010 gegenüber Februar 2010: +1.4% Verkäufe = 43621 Verkäufe.
März 2010 gegenüber März 2009: +20% mehr Angebot auf dem Markt.

Der Tag, an dem diese Blase platzt(e), ist entweder gerade vorbei oder in den nächsten 12 Wochen.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2010/04/15/list-this/

Zitat:There’s now every reason to believe listings will continue to climb in all markets. As I have explained previously, people list when markets fall and sit on properties while they rise. They consistently sell into cascading markets, allowing supply to overwhelm demand, resulting in falling prices. And this is where we are finally headed. Pretty much on schedule.

Several days ago I gave you the timetable for the next year. Two mortgage rate increases in as many weeks confirmed it. The listings avalanche cements it. Next week mortgage regulations tighten, knocking out a mess of first-timer newbies. In June the prime and variable rate loans jump. In July the new taxes hit. And by Christmas we`ll be feeling our vultch juices flowing.

The big question cannot be answered yet, however: Will this be a quick 15% or 20% market correction over 12 or 18 months? Or are Canadians starting into a Yankee-style slow real estate grind which can churn lower for the next five years, taking those areas where prices soared the most down as much as 70%?


That ain't good news.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ako1i0EAZpfQ
Zitat:Chilean industrial output declined the most in at least a decade in March, falling to a six-year low following the devastating Feb. 27 earthquake that shuttered factories and closed ports.

Industrial production declined an unexpected 17.4 percent last month from March 2009, when Chile was suffering its deepest recession in a decade. Industrial sales fell 8.9 percent over the same period, the National Statistics Institute said today..

The decline in output was more than double the 7.3 percent median drop expected by economists in a Bloomberg survey. The February quake, the fifth-largest in a century, and a following tsunami killed more than 400 people and caused almost $30 billion of damage, President Sebastian Pinera said.


http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gZ8v5kE8uqrXTz9ptw-lOAtUBFlQD9F71I1G0
Zitat:China's demand for oil rose 12.8 percent in March as the Chinese economy returned to rapid growth and refining capacity expanded, according to a report Tuesday.

Apparent oil demand rose to 8.12 million barrels per day over the year ago March according to an analysis of official data by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

It was the seventh month in a row of double-digit increase in demand for China. But it was short of the all-time high in February of 8.5 million barrels per day.

Platts said the increase was helped by new refining capacity at state-owned companies like Sinopec, PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corp.

Also driving demand was the resurgence of the Chinese economy, which posted gross domestic product growth of 11.9 percent in the first quarter. Industrial production and gasoline demand were also up during that time.


März 2009: 7.2 Mio. Barrel.
Februar 2010: 8.5 Mio. Barrel.
März 2010: 8.12 Mio. Barrel.

Frage: Wächst der Ölbedarf in China nun 75000 Barrel pro Monat, oder fällt er um 380000 pro Monat? Oder ist das der übliche Zahlenmüll der Ölwirtschaft?


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article7099417.ece
Zitat:Doctors in southern China are working around the clock to fulfil a government goal to sterilise — by force if necessary — almost 10,000 men and women who have violated birth control policies. Family planning authorities are so determined to stop couples from producing more children than the regulations allow that they are detaining the relatives of those who resist.

About 1,300 people are being held in cramped conditions in towns across Puning county, in Guangdong Province, as officials try to put pressure on couples who have illegal children to come forward for sterilisation.


China - Vorbild bei der Umsetzung der Menschenrechte. Ahem.

Zitat:Zhang Lizhao, 38, the father of two sons, aged 6 and 4, said that he rushed home late last night from buying loquats for his wholesale fruit business to undergo sterilisation after his elder brother was detained. His wife had already returned so that the brother would be freed.

Geiselnahme außerdem.

Zynisch betrachtet ist es allerdings erfreulich, daß China das Experiment mit der Überalterung der Gesellschaft zwei Generationen laufen läßt - das gab es sonst m.W. noch nirgends.


http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/:nach-kreditflut-chinas-groesste-geldhaeuser-brauchen-70-mrd-dollar/50100044.html
Zitat:Die Kreditflut des vergangenen Jahres fordert Tribut: Die vier größten börsennotierten chinesischen Banken werden laut eines hochrangigen Managers 480 Mrd. Yuan (70 Mrd. $) an frischem Kapital aufnehmen müssen. Nur so könnten Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC ), China Construction Bank , Bank of China und Bank of Communications die strengen Eigenkapitalanforderungen des Landes erfüllen, schreibt ICBC-Präsident Yang Kaisheng in einem Gastbeitrag für den 21st Century Business Herald.

Das Kapital müsse stets mindestens 11,5 Prozent der risikogewichteten Aktiva ausmachen - und das angesichts geschätzter 15.000 Mrd. Yuan an neuen Darlehen, die die Banken in den nächsten fünf Jahren ausreichen würden, so Yang in dem am Dienstag veröffentlichten Beitrag. "Wir müssen einen neuen Weg für nachhaltiges Wachstum finden, dabei aber den Kapitalbedarf begrenzen."


Naja, was sind schon 70 Mrd. Dollar?

Dafür müssen ja nur 22 Mio. durchschnittlich verdienende Chinesen ein Jahr arbeiten (2008)...

Zitat:Die Institute der Volksrepublik müssen ihre Kapitalbasis aufbessern, nachdem sie im vergangenen Jahr auf Geheiß der Regierung eine Rekordsumme von 9590 Mrd. Yuan an Krediten vergeben hatten.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-china-realestate-20100426,0,3213754,full.story
Zitat:[Hefei]Hundreds of miles inland from the booming real estate markets of Beijing and Shanghai, an unlikely property fever is gripping this middling industrial outpost.

Rows of half-completed apartment buildings rise over former farmland, each crowned with yellow construction cranes that seem to outnumber trees in parts of this dusty city of 5 million residents.

Taxi drivers boast of owning multiple flats for investment. Billboards hawk developments with names such as Villa Glorious and Rich Country. Frenzied crowds pack sales events with bags of cash, buying units that exist only on blueprints. Average home values in Hefei soared 50% last year.

China's real estate rush, once confined to a handful of leading cities, has spilled into the hinterlands with a ferocity reminiscent of American expansion into exurbs like the Inland Empire.


Fieber tritt im Allgemeinen während der Bekämpfung einer Infektion ein, daher wären Begriffe aus der Psychiatrie passender.

Der Rest in Stichworten:

  • All this in a city where many residents are barely a generation removed from working the fields. The average annual income here is $2,000.
  • Xi Zhou, a cameraman for a local news channel, paid $50,000 for his 900-square-foot unit in December. He figures it's now worth $80,000.
  • "For people of my generation, property is all we talk about," said Xi, 27 [...] "I felt a lot of pressure to buy because the longer I didn't, the more likely I wouldn't be able to afford anything."
  • About 15% of the city's residents are now estimated to be construction workers.
  • For the local government, it's a small price to pay for the city's mad march from backwater to metropolis.

"This time it's different"?

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-04/27/content_9780111.htm
Zitat:China's property market has started to cool down after the government introduced new regulation policies, with the country's four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Guangzhou all seeing their property trading volume go down, the Shanghai Securities News reported Tuesday.

Property trading volume went down 64 percent last week from a week earlier in Shenzhen, down 45 percent in Beijing, down 38 percent in Shanghai, and down 2 percent in Guangzhou.


Ob das noch rechtzeitig kommt?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=ajsv6gEJ15Nw
Zitat:China will announce in August a new stimulus package of possibly 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion), the China Business newspaper reported on its Web site, citing unidentified sources.

The plan, from China’s National Development and Reform Commission, will likely cover nine industries including information technology and new energy, the report said.


Selbst wenn das nur ein Wunschtraum sein sollte: Wieso in aller Welt sollte der chinesische Staat das tun wollen, wenn doch der Aufschwung prima läuft?

http://www.commodityonline.com/crops-weather/Colombia-faces-gas-shortages-on-El-Nino-2010-04-26-27676-3-1.html
Zitat:Colombia is facing acute shortage of natural gas mainly on droughts caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon.

The phenomenon sent dam levels across Colombia to historic lows, are forcing officials to evaluate deficiencies in the natural gas sector.

As thermo power generators have increased demand for the clean burning fuel because of low hydrology, the country has faced widespread difficulty in coordinating supply.
[...]
Storage facilities are inadequate in Colombia and the internal and exports markets for both natural gas and thermo-fired power remain insufficient to increase investment.


El Nino -> Zu wenig Wasser in dem Stauseen -> zu wenig Gas, um das aufzufangen.
Was da wohl herauskommt? Vielleicht "zu wenig Strom"?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=a8gThfnzMF70
Zitat:The Czech government is delaying its planned sale of international bonds after credit-rating downgrades in Greece, Portugal and Spain triggered a surge in emerging-market borrowing costs.

“We are waiting for better conditions” on the market before selling the euro-denominated bonds, Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Fuksa said in an interview in Prague today.

Investor concern that a European Union-led bailout package won’t stop Greece’s debt crisis from spreading sent the euro toward its weakest level against the dollar in a year as emerging-market stocks plunged for a second day. Czech bonds fell the most in 11 weeks, lifting the yield on 3.8 percent koruna notes due 2015 by 15 basis points to 2.726 percent, from a five-year low of 2.556 two days ago.


Warten auf bessere Bedingungen hat in dieser weltweiten Wirtschaftskrise noch niemandem geschadet, oder?

Oder vielleicht doch auffällig vielen?


http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/analytics/?doc=25944
Zitat:According to results of the April 2010 general government budget deficit and debt notification[1], which were prepared in conformity with methodology of European System of Accounts ESA’95, the general government deficit in 2009 reached 1,188.7 mln lats or 9.0 % of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the general government sector debt was 4783.4 mln lats or 36.1 % of GDP.

Und wie war die Vorhersage?
Zitat:Compared to provisional data of the Treasury, which indicated general government budget deficit of 892.1 mln lats (6.7% of GDP) in 2009, according to methodological requirements of ESA’ 95, calculated budget deficit is more by 296.6 mln lats or 9.0% of GDP.

Naja, nicht ganz akkurat.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8605736.stm
Zitat:At the same time, Latvia's housing market collapsed in spectacular fashion. Prices have fallen by more than two-thirds in just under three years, well and truly bursting the bubble.

Wohnimmobilien in Lettland: 2/3 Wertverlust in weniger als 3 Jahren.

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=91466
Zitat:Officials at state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, can do little more than watch from the sidelines as oil majors break deep-drilling records on the U.S. side of the Gulf of Mexico.

The recent startup of the massive Perdido offshore drilling hub -- a joint-venture of Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSB), Chevron Corp. (CVX), and BP Plc (BP) -- even has some Mexicans fearful that oil from the Mexican side could seep over and get sucked up in what has been dubbed locally as "the drinking straw effect.

"Perdido is a floating complex 200 miles from the Texas coast that can be fed with oil and gas from nearby deposits. The first ones -- Great White, Silvertip, and Tobago -- are expected to reach average daily output of 100,000 or more barrels of oil equivalent.

As Pemex doesn't have the technology to drill anywhere near the depth of the deep-water experts, and under Mexican law can't share risk with them, government officials found themselves on the defensive as Perdido went on stream.

Zitat:Pemex "has no plan, no technology, no anything to show for the last 10 years," he said.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/9018/inequity-in-power-outages/
Zitat:The official residences of elected officials as well as government office buildings seem to have little to no power cuts while the rest of the country suffers through up to 18 hours of power outages in some rural areas. It is perhaps because of this lack of personal experience with long spells without power that the government seems to be somewhat insensitive to the extreme levels of frustration that the energy crisis has begun to breed within the population at large.

Perhaps the government underestimates the seriousness of the issue so it might be helpful to explain it in terms that they would understand. The PPP government seems to have accomplished a great deal politically in the first two years in office. However, if it hopes to have even the remotest chance of winning re-election in 2013, it must resolve the energy crisis.


Die Energiekrise in Pakistan geht also munter weiter, und welch Wunder: nicht jeder ist gleichermaßen von der Stromabschaltung betroffen: Diejenigen, die in erster Linie für die Behebung des Mangels verantwortlich sind, haben genug Strom Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=161947
Das kommt ganz klar aus einem alternativem Universum:
Zitat:Provincial Minister for Population Welfare Punjab Neelam Jabbar Ch. has said that the government is paying full attention to develop the alternative fuels such as ethanol and bio-diesel to overcome the energy crisis in the country.

While talking to various delegations, Neelam Jabbar Ch. said that the world was moving about new fuel technologies and Pakistan could not afford to lag behind and be continued on traditional energy sources.

She said that ethanol and bio-diesel could help in achieving import substitution and also enable to escape the hazards of oil price validity.


Ich bin gespannt, wo Pakistan die gewaltigen Anbauflächen finden will, die die Produktion von Biodiesel und Ethanol so erfordern.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\04\23\story_23-4-2010_pg12_1
Zitat:The government’s announcement to cut down city’s power quota from 650 megawatts (MW) to 350MW under the national energy policy has left the citizens in a state of shock, despair and uncertainty.

The policy has declared the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) would face a slash of 300MW to cope with the energy crisis currently prevailing across the country.


Das ist nicht unbeeindruckend.

http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/metropolitan/12-lahore+traders+agree+to+close+shops+at+8pm--bi-03
Zitat:After three days of hectic negotiations between the government and traders, most of the Lahore's traders associations have agreed to shut their businesses at 8pm.

However, it is on the condition that they are given uninterrupted power supply for 4 hours before they close shops. According to the agreement, wedding halls will close at 10pm.


Ich dachte, es gälte diese Gleichung:
längere Öffnungszeiten = mehr Umsatz = mehr Gewinn = mehr Steuern = mehr Geld für Öl und Kraftwerke?

*Das* Land hat eine schwierige Zukunft.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=ahGjA9sAvbas
Zitat:President Dmitry Medvedev agreed to spend $40 billion to cement Moscow’s ties with Kiev after five years of tension by cutting gas prices to Ukraine in return for an extended Russian naval presence in the Black Sea.

Russia will cut the natural-gas prices it charges Ukraine by 30 percent in a deal that obliges Ukraine to import more gas from its neighbor to the east. As part of the accord, Russia will keep its Black Sea Fleet base 25 years longer than the existing lease allows.
[...]
The $40 billion is to be considered “investment aid” in Ukraine’s economy, Yanukovych said. The lease on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet base on the Crimean peninsula was extended until 2042, with the possibility of a five-year extension.

“This is a geopolitical success,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine. “The naval base itself isn’t worth that much, but it’s a sign that Russia will remain the major power in the post-Soviet space.”


Gas gegen Flottenbasis - da war sogar "oil for food" irgendwie sympatischer.

http://blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/2010/04/russia-teaches-eu-a-lesson-in-its-ukraine-gas-for-naval-base-deal/
Zitat:If the Greek debt crisis is teaching the European Union some harsh lessons about the design of its monetary union, no less serious is the message coming from Ukraine about the effectiveness of EU foreign policy. Viktor Yanukovich, Ukraine’s newly elected president, agreed a deal with President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia last week that gave Moscow a 25-year extension of the right to station its Black Sea fleet in Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. In return, Ukraine secured a 30 per cent cut in the price of Russian gas deliveries.

This deal illustrates how Russia deploys hard political and economic power in a way that the EU can never match. Economically speaking, Ukraine is on its knees right now. The prospect of cheaper gas was too enticing to refuse. The Kremlin spotted its chance and went for it.

The accord surely puts paid to any prospect that Nato might one day embrace Ukraine as a member. How on earth could Nato contain a country that hosts a foreign naval base - a base, moreover, that was used by Russia as recently as August 2008 to support its military incursion into Georgia?


Damit ist die Gefahr, daß die Ukraine Mitglied der Nato wird, erst mal gebannt.

Wobei Tony Barber aber richtig liegt, wenn er das für ein Meisterwerk russischer Politik und ein Versagen der EU-Außenpolitik hält, daß die Ukraine näher an Rußland rückt.

Gemeint ist übrigens das: Russia Pays Ukraine $40 Billion to Halt ‘Gas War’


http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article212704.ece
Das ist aus der Reihe "Nachrichten aus einem freundlichen Paralleluniversum":
Zitat:"I think that peak demand will come before peak of supply," Reuters quoted Ibrahim Al-Muhanna, advisor to Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi, saying in answer to questions at a conference in Paris.

"The demand in emerging economies will take time to peak but definitely it will peak maybe this decade or early next decade," he said.


http://www.risk.net/energy-risk/news/1602907/saudi-arabia-global-oil-exports-wane-post-2010
Und hier dann mal eine Nachricht aus diesem Universum:
Zitat:Saudi Arabia’s long-standing status as a swing producer of crude oil could be drawing to a close according to the head of national oil company Saudi Aramco.

Global oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer alongside Russia, will start to wane in the coming years as domestic demand surges and spare capacity drops, warned Khalid al-Falih, chief executive officer of Saudi Aramco in a speech published on the company's website.

Domestic energy demand is expected to increase by almost 250%, from about 3.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2009 to about 8.3 million b/d by 2028, which will eventually affect the country's ability to export oil, he said.


http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15868601&source=hptextfeature
T
Zitat:HE queues at Spanish employment offices have never been longer. For the first time since military service was scrapped in 2001, the army is near full strength. Picking up a gun and risking roadside bombs in Afghanistan is one answer to the problem faced by the 4m Spaniards who are jobless. Unemployment rose again in March, a month when it usually drops. The 36,000 extra jobless were fewer than in March last year, but they still helped push the unemployment rate even closer to 20%.

Irgendwie ist das ja schon zynisch Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

Zitat:Spaniards are worried. As many as 42% say that unemployment has affected their lives. Some 3.2m are now on unemployment benefit. More than 400,000 long-term unemployed draw just €426 ($570) a month. Their numbers will rise as the more generous benefits, based on previous earnings, run out after two years. Things are particularly grim for immigrants and the young. Some 40% of under-25s are unemployed, twice as many as in other hard-hit European countries. Sebastián Mora, secretary-general of a Roman Catholic charity, Caritas, talks of a crisis of despair. Caritas’s workload of those needing its help has doubled in two years.

Zitat:Mr Carluccio points out that a two-tier labour market is matched by two-tier education. Spain equals other European countries in numbers with university-level education, but a shocking 30% of Spaniards leave school with no qualifications—worse than elsewhere. These people find it hardest to get work. You can see why so many apply to the army, says Mr Carluccio; you don’t need a master’s degree.

Zusammenfassung: Hoher Anteil Ungebildeter in der Bevölkerung und hohe Arbeitslosigkeit => viel Militär.
Das klingt irgendwie bekannt... Hm, Ägypten? USA? UK?

http://www.theengineer.co.uk/channels/process-engineering/uk-energy-production-down-6-in-2009/1001566.article
Zitat:Total energy production in the UK in 2009 was 166.8 million tonnes of oil equivalent, 5.8% lower than 2008, according to the Energy Trends and Quarterly Energy Prices report by the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

According to the official data, between 2008 and 2009 coal and other solid fuel consumption fell by 14.2%, while consumption of oil and gas fell by 3.5% and 7.2%, respectively. Primary energy consumption fell for the fifth consecutive year, and at its fastest rate since 1980.
Coal production last year – including an estimate for slurry – was 1.0% down on 2008 at 17.9 million tonnes. Deep mined production was down 7.1% while opencast production was up 3.6%. Imports of coal in 2009 as a whole were 12.9% down on 2008 at 38.2 million tonnes.


6% sind ein gewaltiger Einbruch.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a0s.a.8XZc4c
Zitat:Uruguay and the World Bank are working to reach agreement on a five-year package of financial support that would total about $700 million, Economy Minister Fernando Lorenzo told reporters in Montevideo.

Uruguay is a “model of macroeconomic stability,” World Bank Vice President Pamela Cox said.


Aha. Und trotz der makroökonimischen Stabilität braucht Uruguay einen Weltbankkredit?
Sehr merkwürdig.

http://austin.bizjournals.com/austin/stories/2010/04/19/daily57.html
Zitat:U.S. electricity demand fell 4.2 percent last year, the largest drop in 60 years, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

In the agency’s “State of the Markets Report 2009,” only three of the 11 recessions in the past 60 years have resulted in a drop in electric demand, and officials said in the report “falling power demand is rare.”


http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/generation-y-the-broke-generation
Zitat:According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in March the national rate of unemployment in the United States was 9.7%, but for Americans younger than 25 it was 18.8%. In fact, according to a Pew Research Center study, approximately 37% of all Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 have either been unemployed or underemployed at some point during the recession.

Things are even worse for those under the age of 20. According to a new report based on U.S. Census Bureau data, only 26 percent of American teens between the ages of 16 and 19 had jobs in late 2009 which represents a record low since statistics began to be kept back in 1948.


So weit, so schlecht.

Zitat:But the inability to get good jobs is only part of the story....

*The Pew Research Center study also found that only 61% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 are covered by some form of a health plan.

*According to a National Foundation for Credit Counseling survey, only 58% of those in "Generation Y" pay their monthly bills on time.

*Not only that, but according to a November MetLife poll, nearly 70% of those in "Generation Y" are not building up a cash cushion, and 43% are accumulating too much credit card debt.

*According to Fidelity Investments, those in Generation Y have more than three credit cards on average, and 20 percent of them carry a balance of at least $10,000.


http://wcbstv.com/local/jobs.employment.queens.2.1657008.html
Zitat:Desperate times call for desperate measures – even if it means camping out in the rain for a chance at a job application.

Hundreds of job-seekers did just that in Queens in the hopes of landing a coveted union job.
[...]
After three days of sleeping on the street, he left with one of just 750 job applications handed out for a position as an elevator technician apprentice -- a secure job with pension and benefits and an earning potential up to $40 an hour.
[...]
More than 1,000 eager applicants began lining up as early as Friday morning armed with a variety of skills -- and warm blankets.
[...]
The union plans to hire about 75 people -- and possibly more depending on the economy.


NY 2010: 75 Stellen, 750 Leute durften Bewerbungen abgeben, Hunderte mehr noch nicht mal das, und dafpr haben mehr als 1000 Leute da kampiert...

Wenn das nicht mal der ersehnte Aufschwung ist.


http://www.summitdaily.com/article/20100425/COLUMNS/100429897/1078&ParentProfile=1055
Zitat:Climate scientists are predicting a 10-to-30 percent reduction in flow for the Colorado — a stark contrast to the rosy assumptions that underlay the Colorado River Compact when it was signed 88 years ago. Researchers from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography recently predicted that Lakes Mead and Powell have a 50 percent chance of going dry by 2021. These days, Lake Mead is at 45 percent capacity and Lake Powell is at 57 percent capacity.

Farther south, water shortages are predicted for northern Arizona communities, including Flagstaff, by 2050. The Central Arizona Project, which provides water to Phoenix and Tucson, may run short of water as early as 2012.

And farther downstream, Mexico is looking at a disaster along its stretch of the river due to inadequate flows, prompting one Mexican official to declare, “We are clearly on a collision course with a catastrophe,” according to the Los Angeles Times.


Tja.

Und die Abhilfe?

Zitat:Water shortages in the Lower Basin will be greatly exacerbated by proposals to build giant pipelines. Las Vegas, which gets 90 percent of its water from Lake Mead, wants to build a $4 billion pipeline to central Nevada to pump groundwater from beneath several valleys in the Great Basin. This 300-mile pipeline is likely to lower groundwater levels, threatening a national park, national wildlife refuges, an Indian reservation, and local ranchers and farmers. The resulting loss of surface flora is not just a cosmetic problem; it could result in huge dust storms that blanket Salt Lake City.

Wasser von anderswo holen.

Mich deucht, das endet nicht wirklich gut.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/28/214916/do-you-notice-the-end-of-zirp/
Zitat:But examine this chart, mapping the overnight Fed Funds rate in the US over recent months:
Overnight Fed Funds rate
The official range, established in December 2008, may remain at “zero to 0.25 per cent” – but the actual price of money is most definitely trending higher.

In fact, a little over 20 basis points is now typical in overnight trade. That might be a small rise, in nominal terms, from the 10 bps or so seen earlier in the crisis – but it’s certainly a shift away from the zero interest rate policy.


interessant - aber wir werden sehen, wie das im Gefolge der Griechenland/EU-Krise weitergehen wird.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-24/aig-may-be-on-the-hook-in-lawsuits-against-goldman-sachs-board.html
Zitat:American International Group Inc. may be required to pay to defend lawsuits against Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s top executives, including Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, under directors and officers insurance policies held by the company.

AIG, which was rescued from collapse by the U.S. government, sold so-called Side A directors and officers’ coverage to New York-based Goldman Sachs, according to a person with knowledge of the policy.
[...]
“If it were a derivative suit against Goldman, defense costs would be covered, and I’d prefer not to be a primary on the policy,” said John Degnan, vice chairman and chief operating officer of AIG competitor Chubb Corp., while answering a question about Goldman Sachs on an April 22 earnings call.


AIG, der große staatliche Versicherer in den USA, darf unter Umständen für die Verteidigung des Führungspersonals von Goldman Sachs zahlen.

http://reason.com/blog/2010/04/23/gm-pays-back-tarp-loans-withta
Zitat:The bottom line seems to be that the TARP loans were "repaid" with other TARP funds in a Treasury escrow account. The TARP loans were not repaid from money GM is earning selling cars, as GM and the Administration have claimed in their speeches, press releases and television commercials. When these criticisms were put to GM’s Vice Chairman Stephen Girsky in a television interview yesterday, he admitted that the criticisms were valid:

Government misery.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/sports/28racing.html?hp
Zitat:Over the past two years, for example, the number of mares bred nationally has dropped 20 percent, and the number of stallions standing stud has fallen even more, by 25 percent, according to The Jockey Club. Money bet on horse races, known as the handle, is off nearly 30 percent, to $12 billion in 2009, a major decline for a once-reliable source of revenue for local governments.
[...]
Lately, however, horsemen have been betting their farms and losing. There are 265 farms of more than 20 acres for sale here in the four counties of horse country — up from 199 listed last year — and that is not counting the more than 60 “pocket listings” Mr. Kirkpatrick said he and his peers had not put on the multiple listings service.
[...]
“Even if you’re O.K. financially, you don’t want to be flamboyant or ostentatious and spend money on a yearling,” said Nick Nicholson, chief executive of the Keeneland Association, which has had a 50 percent drop in sales from more than $800 million in 2007. “We have a minimum bid of $1,000, and we’ve seen more horses go through the ring and not get bid on at all than we ever had.”

These days it is far cheaper to get a date with a blue-blooded stallion. The top of the market for stallions like Dynaformer is $150,000, according to BloodHorse.com. Smarty Jones, who nearly swept the Triple Crown in 2004, once stood for $100,000, but today he can be had for $10,000.


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred-sales/results/2010/1/25/barretts-equine-limited-january-2010-mixed-sale
http://www.bloodhorse.com/hors [verkürzt] imited-january-2007-mixed-sale
Ein Update zu Re: Alles wird gut!!!27! - Pferdepreise:

Year Offered Sold RNA Gross Average Median High
2010 447 273 174 $1,987,000 $7,278 $3,200 $ 65,000
2009 284 202 82 $1,232,400 $6,101 $3,600 $ 50,000
2008 489 354 135 $2,225,900 $6,288 $3,200 $120,000
2007 535 437 98 $4,168,400 $9,539 $4,500 $560,000
2006 540 440 100 $3,479,500 $7,908 $3,500 $300,000
2005 582 492 90 $3,213,100 $6,531 $3,500 $ 72,000
2004 629 517 112 $4,057,300 $7,848 $3,500 $425,000
2003 596 524 72 $4,431,000 $8,456 $4,000 $110,000

-29% bei den Medianpreisen seit 2007.
-52% bei den Umsätzen.

Aua.

Interessant ist vielleicht noch die Einzelstatistik zu den Zuchtstuten:


Year Offered Sold RNA Gross Average Median High
2010 155 91 64 $ 480,900 $5,285 $2,200 $ 65,000
2009 103 73 30 $ 340,600 $4,666 $2,200 $ 40,000
2008 203 139 64 $ 779,800 $5,610 $3,000 $120,000
2007 197 149 48 $1,200,700 $8,058 $3,700 $ 97,000
2006 219 164 55 $1,085,000 $6,616 $3,000 $280,000
2005 276 229 47 $1,357,500 $5,928 $3,000 $ 42,000
2004 280 228 52 $1,247,100 $5,470 $3,100 $ 45,000
2003 266 225 41 $2,163,200 $9,614 $4,500 $110,000

-60% Umsatz, -40% Medianpreis, -39% Zahl verkaufter Tiere - kein Anzeichen für einen langfristigen Wachstumstrend.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-cover-side18-2010apr18,0,5480872.story
Zitat:Overall office vacancy in Los Angeles County reached 17.6% in the first quarter, up from 14.3% a year earlier, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The average rent landlords asked for dropped to $2.60 a square foot per month from $2.82 in last year's first quarter.

Die Durchschnittsmiete in Groß-LA von $2.6 pro Quadratfuß entspricht so um die 10 EUR pro Quadratmeter - was etwa die Durchschnittsmiete in der Düsseldorfer *City* ist (Umland/Nebenlagen: etwa die Hälfte).
Da ist noch Luft für den weiteren freien Fall.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/24/number-of-the-week-103-months-to-clear-housing-inventory/
103: The number of months it would take to sell off all the foreclosed homes in banks’ possession, plus all the homes likely to end up there over the next couple years, at the current rate of sales.
Häuservorrat in den USA
Alles wird gut, irgendwann, wenn all das verfallen ist...

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/26/opinion/26krugman.html
Zitat:of AAA-rated subprime-mortgage-backed securities issued in 2006, 93 percent — 93 percent! — have now been downgraded to junk status.

Wann werden eigentlich die Ratingagenturen aus dem Verkehr gezogen?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+creditwritedownsnews+%28Credit+Writedowns%27+News+Feed%29
Zitat:The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.

"By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.

It adds: "While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/25/AR2010042503518.html
Zitat:Two Illinois lawmakers say violence has become so rampant in Chicago that the National Guard must be called in to help.
[...]
The request comes amid a recent surge in violent crime, including a night last week that saw seven people killed and 18 wounded, mostly by gunfire.

Fritchey says Chicago has had 113 homicide victims this year. He says the police department has done a commendable job, but its resources are stretched thin.


http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/04/13-4
Zitat:The budget for the 2011 fiscal year, which has to be voted by Congress by this Oct. 1, looks to be about $3 trillion, not counting the funds collected for Social Security (since the Vietnam War, the government has included the Social Security Trust Fund in the budget as a way to make the cost of America's imperial military adventures seem smaller in comparison to the total cost of government). Meanwhile, the military share of the budget works out to about $1.6 trillion.

That figure includes the Pentagon budget request of $708 billion, plus an estimated $200 billion in supplemental funding, called "overseas contingency funding" in euphemistic White House-speak), to fund the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, some $40 billion or more in "black box" intelligence agency funding, $94 billion in non-DOD military spending, $100 billion in veterans benefits and health care spending, and $400 billion in interest on debt raised to pay for prior wars and the standing military.

The 2011 military budget, by the way, is the largest in history, not just in actual dollars, but in inflation adjusted dollars, exceeding even the spending in World War II, when the nation was on an all-out military footing.

Military spending in all its myriad forms works out to represent 53.3% of total US federal spending.


Da hat commondreams.org einen gewissen Realitätsverlust, schließlich sind die 3000 Mrd. Dollar im US-Budget eben nicht alle durch Steuern gedeckt. Laut http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Receipts_-_FY_2007.png sind nur 2100 Mrd. Dollar Steuern herein gekommen...
was das Militärbudget dann auf 76% der Steuereinnahmen aufblasen würde.

Imperial Overstretch, anyone?


http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0420/guard-recruiters-forged-reenlistment-papers/
Zitat:Washington State National Guard recruiters repeatedly forged re-enlistment papers in a desperate attempt to hold on to soldiers in the run-up to the Iraq war surge, a local news channel's investigation has found.

In one case, a soldier found himself fighting against deployment to Iraq after re-enlistment papers with his signature on it appeared -- even though he never signed any such papers, reports Chris Ingalls at KING channel 5 news in Seattle.

And in another case, a sergeant who had signed up for a one-year tour of duty was shocked to discover his enlistment papers stated he had signed up for two years.


Der Dienst für Uncle Sam scheint nicht ganz beliebt zu sein.

http://www.glgroup.com/News/China-lines-up-100000-bbl-day-using-hard-earned-U.S.-Dollars-47955.html
Zitat:Venezuela will ship 100,000 bbl/day of crude oil to China for 10 years to pay off a $20 billion loan. The per barrel price was not specified but their average basket price is around $75/bbl. President Hugo Chavez announced the oil-for-credit agreement on Saturday night. Venezuela has been working for some time to foster relations with China. The loan will be used for highways, infrastructure as well as investments in the oil industry. Venezuela currently ships 460,000 bbl/day to China.

Venezuela bekommt 20 Mrd. Dollar von China, China bekommt 10 Jahre lang 100000 Barrel Öl pro Tag.
Meiner Rechnung nach kommt das auf 54 Dollar pro Barrel, nicht auf 75 Dollar, und ist ein verdammt guter Preis.

Oder anders gesagt: Chavez steht das Wasser bis weit über den Hals.


http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2010/04/201041691014575757.html
Zitat:As the international community focuses on defeating al-Qaeda in Yemen, millions of ordinary people in the country on the south-west tip of the Arabian Peninsula are quietly starving as vital deliveries of UN food aid are severely cut due to a lack of funding.

By the end of June 2010, analysts predict, the WPF will have no food to distribute to Yemen's millions of hungry.

There are fears that this will debilitate the nearly one in three Yemenis - over seven million people - who struggle daily to find enough food to live a healthy and productive life, leading to rates of malnutrition that are the third highest in the world.

Zitat:Meanwhile, the 'Triple F crisis' - rising food prices, falling fuel revenues, and cuts to remittance flows due to the financial crisis - has increased poverty here by nearly 25 per cent since 2006, wiping out decades of development.
Gruß, Uwe

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