Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2010-04-09 15:26:59
Ausgabe 88
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://www.bis.org/publ/othp09.pdf
BIS Working Paper über die Schuldenentwicklung diverser Länder:
Zinszahlungen
Schulden als Prozentsatz des BIP
Rot: weiter wie bisher.
Grün: Kleine Anpassungen
Blau: Kleine Anpassungen, bei Einfrieren der altersbedingten Ausgaben.

Ob da die demographische Entwicklung berücksichtigt ist?


http://www.cmavision.com/images/uploads/docs/CMA_Global_Sovereign_Credit_Risk_Report_Q1_2010.pdf
Die 10 unsichersten Staatsanleihen

http://www.world-nuclear.com/info/reactors.html
Geschätzter weltweiter Uranbedarf 2010: 68646 Tonnen.
Atomstrom 1.4.2010: 374127 MWe
Atomstrom inkl. im Bau befindlicher Reaktoren: 425369 MWe.
Atomstrom inkl. geplanter Reaktoren: 583301 MWe.
Atomstrom inkl. "PROPOSED" Reaktoren: 946476 MWe.

http://www.world-nuclear.com/info/uprod.html
Geschätzte weltweite Uranproduktion 2008: 43853 Tonnen.

http://www.world-nuclear.com/info/inf75.html
Known Recoverable Resources of Uranium 2007: 5469000 Tonnen.
Reichweite bei derzeitigem Verbrauch: 80 Jahre.
Reichweite inkl. im Bau befindlicher Reaktoren: 70 Jahre.
Reichweite inkl. geplanter Reaktoren: 51 Jahre.
Reichweite inkl. "PROPOSED" Reaktoren: 31.5 Jahre.

Nun kann man sicherlich auf der Welt noch mehr Uran finden, aber das wird sicherlich teurer zu produzieren als die offensichtlichen, leicht erreichbaren Lager.

Davon ab gibt's sicherlich auch noch andere Abnehmer für Uran als nur die Reaktoren - irgendwann werden die Atommächte ihr friedensstiftendes Overkillpotential ja mal modernisieren wollen, oder so... und auch Flugzeugträger, U-Boote und Eisbrecher wollen gefüttert werden.


http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-69628968.html
Zitat:Deutsche Reeder und Schiffsfinanzierer stehen am Abgrund. Die Charterraten decken nicht mal die Kosten. Und weitere Schiffe für 60 Milliarden Dollar sind bereits bestellt.
...
Und die Krise frisst sich gerade in die Fundamente deutscher Banken. Institute wie die HSH Nordbank, die Commerzbank, die Nord/LB, die KfW-Tochter Ipex und die DVB Bank sind die größten Schiffsfinanzierer der Welt (siehe Grafik). Beinahe 100 Milliarden Euro Schiffskredite stehen in ihren Büchern.

Die Graphik

Zitat:Für viele Schuldner geht es ums Überleben, von Gewinnen spricht schon lange niemand mehr. Die Charterraten liegen je nach Schiffstyp bis zu 80 Prozent unter den Höchstständen vor der Krise. Sie sind "auf einem schmerzhaft tiefen Niveau", schreibt der Hamburger Schiffsmakler Harper Petersen & Co., "die meisten Reeder verlieren weiterhin Geld". Weltweit dümpeln rund 500 Schiffe ohne Aufträge in den Häfen.

Zitat:Deutsche Reeder haben knapp tausend Schiffe bestellt, die noch nicht ausgeliefert sind. Darunter sind allein rund 300 Containerriesen mit einem geschätzten Wert von etwa 30 Milliarden Euro.

Nicht gut, das Verhältnis. Gar nicht gut...

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/versicherungen/:parkdepots-finanzaufsicht-verdaechtigt-versicherer/50097013.html
Zitat:Die Finanzaufsicht BaFin misstraut dem Geschäftsgebaren deutscher Lebensversicherer. In einem Schreiben an alle Gesellschaften, das der FTD vorliegt, verlangt die Behörde detaillierte Daten über sogenannte Kapitalisierungsgeschäfte.

Anleger zahlen dabei einen festen Betrag in einen gut verzinsten Lebensversicherungsvertrag ein, den sie kurzfristig und ohne Verluste kündigen dürfen. Diese Kapitalanlagen sind selbst in der Branche umstritten. Für die Versicherer sind sie entscheidend, um mehr Neukunden zu gewinnen. Kritiker monieren, dass damit die Gewinne der Bestandskunden sinken. Nur so könnten Versicherer höhere Zinsen als Banken anbieten. Bei einer langen Niedrigzinsphase könnten Versicherer nicht alle Zusagen erfüllen.


Am Wochenende meinte ich noch zu einer Bekannten, daß die Lebensversicherer in einer Krise stecken...

Etwas älter, aus dem Oktober 2009:
http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/ [verkürzt] t-um-versicherer/50023022.html
Nettoergebnis deutscher Lebensversicherer

Zitat:Bei heute abgeschlossenen Verträgen beträgt die Garantie 2,25 Prozent, in der Vergangenheit lag sie aber auch schon bei vier Prozent. Im Durchschnitt haben die Gesellschaften Zinsgarantien von rund 3,4 Prozent auf Kundenguthaben zu bedienen - bei Laufzeiten von zwölf Jahren und mehr.

Die BaFin befürchtet offenbar, dass einige Anbieter bei lang anhaltenden niedrigen Erträgen aus den Kapitalanlagen kaum in der Lage wären, diese Garantien dauerhaft zu bedienen. Dann käme mancher Lebensversicherer in eine Schieflage. In Japan führten Deflation und Niedrigzinsen in den 1990er-Jahren zu einer Reihe spektakulärer Zusammenbrüche von Lebensversicherern.


http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20100406/vancouver_100406/20100406?hub=Canada
Dies ist ganz bestimmt keine Immobilienblase:
Zitat:Vancouver's super-hot real estate market has hit an expensive milestone, with the average price of a home reaching $1 million for the first time.

More than 1,300 single detached homes were sold in greater Vancouver last month, for a whopping total of $1.35 billion.
[...]
The $1-million average includes high-end homes. But the average price for a single, standard detached home in the city reached $800,341, the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Tuesday. That's up from $650,000 a year ago.


Nichts, was ich in den letzten Monaten über Kanada las, stimmte mich vorbehaltslos optimistisch. Dies auch nicht.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awXzP6Qfum3Q
Zitat:China’s finance ministry failed to draw enough demand at sales of 273-day and 91-day treasury bills today after the central bank tightened control on money supply to restrain inflation, according to traders at two banks.

The ministry sold 15.81 billion yuan ($2.3 billion) of 273- day bills compared with the planned amount of 20 billion yuan and issued 14.25 billion yuan of the 91-day bills versus the target of 15 billion yuan, according to the traders at Bank of China Ltd. and BOC International Holdings Ltd., who declined to be identified before an official announcement.


Soso, China kann keine kurz laufenden Anleihen platzieren. China, nicht Griechenland.

Warum?

Zitat:China’s central bank yesterday sold of three-year bills for the first time since June 2008, helping drain cash from the financial system. The sale of longer-maturity debt signaled policy makers are tightening monetary policy, reducing investor demand for shorter-dated government securities, said Chen Jianheng, an analyst in Beijing at China International Capital Corp.

Einen Tag vorher gab's 3 Jahre laufende Anleihen.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/07/drought-southern-china
Trockenheit
A solitary man and an ox cart travel across an area where locals went fishing less than a year ago in Damoguzhen County, Yunnan

Zitat:Until last summer, Damoguzhen was home to a lake that stretched across a mile-wide expanse of water in Yunnan, a southern Chinese province famed for its mighty rivers, moist climate and beautiful views.

Today, it joins 310 reservoirs, 580 rivers and 3,600 pools that have been baked dry by a once-in-a-century drought that is evaporating drinking supplies, devastating crops and stirring up political tensions over dam construction, monoculture plantations and cross-border water management in south-east Asia. Linking specific weather events to human-caused climate change is impossible, but the drought is consistent with what climate scientists expect to see more of in future.

Zitat:It is a similar story across the region. Older villagers say reservoirs and irrigation channels are dry for the first time in their lives. Mountain communities have to walk hours each day to secure drinking supplies. Rationing has been introduced in many areas, affecting more than 20 million people, 15m animals and 2m hectares of farmland.

With its mighty rivers and steep gorges, south-west China is the world's biggest hydro-electric powerhouse, but reservoir levels have fallen so low this year that 60% of dams report a decline in electricity output. This forces industrial estates and cities to burn more coal and emit more carbon to make up the shortfall.


http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article211185.ece?WT.mc_id=rechargenews_rss
Ein kleines Update zu Länderdomino: Ecuador (Ecuador ist in finanziellen Schwierigkeiten) und Texaco Toxic Past Haunts Chevron as Judgment Looms (Ecuador möchte 27 Mrd. Dollar von Chevron für Umweltschäden aus Texacozeiten):
Zitat:A report by the plaintiffs said an Ecuadorean man who had worked for Chevron and secretly videotaped a judge in the lawsuit discussing bribes told an acquaintance he had enough evidence to jeopardise the US oil company's case, according to a Reuters report.

The report, made public yesterday, adds another twist to a 17-year-old case brought on behalf of indigenous peoples for polluting the Ecuadorean jungle near where they live. Damages could be as much as $27 billion, and a ruling on the case from the court in Ecuador is due this year. The original defendant in the case, Texaco, merged with Chevron in 2001.

Diego Borja, one of the two men who secretly videotaped an Ecuadorean judge in the case during a discussion of bribes, now receives a monthly sum from Chevron and lives near its headquarters in San Ramon, California, according to Santiago Escobar, who says he has known Borja for 15 years.


Womit ich ja Schwierigkeiten habe ist dieses "secretly videotaped"... ein Unternehmen wie Chevron sollte niemanden auf Bestechungstour in einem solch vielbeachteten Prozess schicken, der so blöde ist, das nicht zu vermeiden.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5427bfe4-40f0-11df-94c2-00144feabdc0.html
Zitat:Greece will this month launch a multibillion-dollar bond in the US in its hunt for new investors, selling itself for the first time as an emerging market country as demand for its debt dwindles in Europe. Morgan Stanley is being considered to handle the deal after Goldman Sachs’ plans to sell Greek bonds to US and Asian investors this year fell through amid rumours that the Chinese had shunned Athens’ debt. George Papaconstantinou, Greece’s finance minister, would lead a roadshow to the US "after April 20" but in contrast with plans at the start of the year he would not travel on to Asia, one official said.

Griechenland als "emerging country". Can't make this up...

Zitat:"Greece is an emerging market and a Balkan country, and the fact that it’s a eurozone member is not a contradiction. It’s an issue of performance, not belonging," Nikos Mourkogiannis, a London-based economist and restructuring consultant, said. Greece’s 10-year benchmark yields are about 6.5 per cent compared with Brazil’s at 4.9 per cent, Mexico’s at 4.8 per cent, Poland’s at 5.5 per cent and Hungary’s at 6.6 per cent. Greece last raised money in dollars in June 2008 when it issued $1.5bn of five-year notes.

Griechenland erinnert mich aber weniger an ein auftauchendes U-Boot als ein Absaufendes...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/04/euro-bonds-spreads-greece-at-record.html
Spreads von EU-Staatsanleihen gegenüber Deutschen
Quelle: Atlanta FED, http://www.frbatlanta.org/docu [verkürzt] ts/finhighlights/FH_040710.pdf

Warum die es für sinnvoll halten, .uk mit einzuschließen?


http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/banks-write-down-836440bn-in-loans-2129309.html
Zitat:THE 11 banks and building societies operating in Ireland have written down almost €40bn of bad loans over the past two years of property and economic crisis, according to figures compiled by the Irish Independent.

The figure represents 7.5pc of a Bloxham Stockbrokers estimate of a total of €533bn of lending outstanding by the six state-guaranteed banks and the country's five main foreign-owned lenders.


Und diese Summe von 40 Mrd EUR sind nur 7.5% der ausstehenden Kredite der 11 Institute. Wow.

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/04/07/municipal-finance-datapoint-of-the-day-latvia-edition/
Zitat:Municipalities have incredibly high wealth-to-sophistication ratios, which makes them prime targets for banks such as Deutsche, which contrived to collect a whopping 46% of the total expense of the bridge in Riga as interest payments.

Der das Zitat einleitende Satz ist wunderschön, besser kann man das gar nicht ausdrücken.
Aber worum geht es?

Riga, die lettische Stadt, wollte eine Brücke bauen. Der Staat sagte "nein, ihr dürft keinen Credit aufnehmen". Die Deutsche Bank eilte zu Hilfe, zu äußerst großzügigen Konditionen, lieh dem Bauunternehmen das nötige Geld und schloß mit Riga ein CDS ab - Riga garantierte also den Kredit.
Daß das dann irgendwann aufflog, und Eurostat und/oder Rechnungshof das für einen Kredit an Riga hielten, naja, Schwamm drüber.

Aber der wirklich interessante Aspekt ist der: Die Deutsche Bank contrived to collect a whopping 46% of the total expense of the bridge in Riga as interest payments. 46% der Gesamtausgaben bekam die Deutsche als Zinsen...


http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=232816
Zitat:AMID the energy crisis in the country, the Sui gas authorities are all set to launch a campaign against the use of gas generators by domestic consumers that will certainly add to the miseries of people who are already fed up with loadshedding.

The Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd (SNGPL) has initially scrutinised a list of about 6,000 domestic consumers who are ‘illegally’ using gas for standby power generation. The authorities will start checking of illegal gas-powered generators during house-to-house search and will cut connection on the spot. The SNGPL has warned that users of gas generators should register with gas authorities if they want to avoid action.


"Illegale" Stromerzeugung aus Gasgeneratoren... Warum bloß?

Im Grunde ist das die logische Fortsetzung von Energiekrise in Pakistan, Update: 11000 Megawatt Bedarf, 7000 Erzeugung.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print1.asp?id=232480

Zitat:
According to the official figures, there was not even a single day during the last week when the power shortfall came down from 5,000MW, rather sometimes, it went above 6,000MW. It showed that one the temperature of the City abnormally went high as compared to the previous years while the generation of the National Grid of Pepco was standing where it was in the last year. Another reason, which Pepco gave, was the low hydel generation in comparison with the last year, which Wapda authorities kept on denying.

Oops, statt einer Verbesserung gab's eine Verschlechterung... wer hätte das gedacht?

Zitat:Throughout the last one year, the minister for Water and Power and the Pepco managing director kept on claiming that loadshedding would end on Decmber 31, 2009 as 3,000MW of power would be generated by the induction of IPPs and RPPs but nothing happened.

With the start of the year 2010, the Pepco authorities again started claiming that loadshedding would end soon by the induction of 1,500-2,000MW power but that too did not happen. By the end of March 2010, the Engro Power (225MW) was inducted in the national grid but it was just peanuts vis-a-vis the current demand of around 16,000MW. Moreover, with the induction of Engro, there was not at all any decrease in loadshedding duration; rather it crossed the duration of 12 hours a day.


Zitat:A traffic warden on the Jail Road told this correspondent that it happens almost 10-12 times in day that the traffic got jammed on the Shadman-Jail Road square and that was only because the traffic signals stopped functioning due to loadshedding.

The shortfall between the demand and supply of Pepco’s national grid was still standing around 5,000MW on Saturday evening and loadshedding of over 12 hours was still being observed in Lahore negating the Pepco officials’ claims of nine and 11 hours of loadshedding in the urban and rural areas of the City.


Seufz.

http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/03/uk-housing-benefit-of-weaker-currency.html
Zitat:A weak sterling has caused the housing market to be awfully attractive to investors outside the U.K. An example can be seen below, comparing the change in the price index in both local currency (sterling), as well as the dollar.

Chart: UK-Hauspreise in Pfund und Dollar

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8608935.stm
UK Household savings
Zitat:The household saving ratio in the UK in 2008 was 1.7% of total resources, the lowest recorded since 1970, and well below the 7.6% average for that period.

An einen von der Binnennachfrage getriebenen britischen Aufschwung mag ich nicht glauben.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/167431/-1trillion-pensions-timebomb
Zitat:TAXPAYERS are facing a £1trillion “black hole” in funding to cover the generous pensions of Britain’s army of public sector workers, business chiefs warn today.

A damning report by the Confederation of British Industry calls on ministers to tackle the huge bill to look after millions of state employees in old age, which works out at a staggering £40,400 for every household in the UK.


40.400 Pfund pro Haushalt betragen die ungedeckten Pensionslasten der britischen Staatsangestellten. Das ist beeindruckend.

Zitat:
To compound the problem, the state workforce has grown by almost a million over the past decade to hit 6.1 million, or one in five workers. The depth of the funding crisis was underlined by a separate study revealing that local authority deficits have soared to almost £60billion.
[...]
Public sector pensions currently cost the taxpayer £14.93billion a year, a rise of 38 per cent in a decade. But more than five million people, including civil servants, teachers, NHS staff and members of the Armed Forces, are in schemes for which no money has been set aside.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aBvgaN.jjqt8
Das kommt jetzt offenbar aus der Abteilung für Neusprech:
Zitat:Ukraine said Russia agreed to consider proposals to cut the price of natural gas exports, President Viktor Yanukovych said in a statement.
[...]
Ukraine will pay $330 per 1,000 cubic meters in the second quarter for Russian gas, up from $305.68 in the first quarter, Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported today. Oleksandr Kolodiy, a spokesman for the Fuel and Energy Ministry, declined to immediately comment.

http://www.ftd.de/sport/fussball/news/:verzug-bei-em-vorbereitungen-uefa-stellt-ukraine-ultimatum/50098339.html
Zitat:Uefa-Präsident Michel Platini und hat EM-Gastgeber Ukraine ein Ultimatum bis Mitte Juni gestellt: Der Co-Organisator der Fußball-EM 2012 habe jetzt noch zwei Monate Zeit, den Rückstand bei den Vorbereitungen aufzuholen, sagte der Franzose am Donnerstag nach einer zweitägigen Tour durch die vier ukrainischen Ausrichterstädte. Indirekt drohte er den Osteuropäern damit erneut mit dem EM-Entzug. "Wir können keine Zeit mehr verlieren. Die Ukraine hat zwei Monate Zeit, deutliche Fortschritte zu zeigen", so Platini nach einem Treffen mit Präsidenten Viktor Janukowitsch, der prompt sofortige Besserung gelobte.

Zitat:Obwohl die Ukraine seit Monaten kurz vor dem Staatsbankrott steht, will die Regierung in diesem Jahr rund 100 Mio. Euro für die Vorbereitungen der EM 2012 zur Verfügung stellen. Sogar Janukowitsch hatte eingeräumt, die gegenwärtige Infrastruktur sei in "katastrophaler Verfassung". Sein Land werde jetzt "den höchsten Gang" einlegen und den "Rückstand wettmachen".

Wenn man aus dem Stand heraus den höchsten Gang einlegt, ist garantiert, daß man nicht schnellstmöglich fertig wird...

http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2010/04/employment-vs-population-growth.html
Zitat:The good news is non-farm payrolls jumped by 162,000 in March. The thing to keep in mind is that the population has grown by 211,000 per month (on average) over the past 10 years.

USA: Bevölkerungswachstum versus Arbeitsstellenwachstum

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/04/09/199151/the-illustrative-maiden-lane-i-portfolio/
Zitat:
For simplicity’s sake we’ve translated long-term credit ratings from Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, into Moody’s ones, using a table along these lines. You can see a detailed definition of Moody’s ratings here, but suffice to say that anything below the Baa3 level is deemed non-investment grade.

Why focus on non-investment grade?

Because Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke was very clear in April 2008, in his testimony to the US Congress, that the assets taken from Bear Stearns to collateralise the Fed’s $29bn loan were “entirely investment grade, entirely current and performing.” Taxpayers were not getting junk.

After a brief glance at a few bonds, we now know that’s not true.

Based on ratings data for the 1,000-or-so CUSIPS, we’ve found 10 bonds that were sub-investment grade when Bernanke made that statement. Admittedly, it’s not a lot out of 1,000, but it also means Bernanke’s statement wasn’t true. It either was all investment grade, or it wasn’t. Clearly, it wasn’t.


Aufstellung nach Rating
Graphisch
Nach meiner Lesart ist der von Bear Stearns übernommene Müll damit noch deutlich schlechter als der von AIG Übernommene.

http://alephblog.com/2010/04/06/thoughts-on-maiden-lane-ii/
Zitat:The average credit rating is B-, with a downward tendency. 56.7% of the portfolio is rated CCC and below, and 71.2% of the portfolio is rated B and below.
[...]

Year Principal $K Percentage
2000 503 0.0%
2001 1,657 0.0%
2002 690 0.0%
2003 112,273 0.3%
2004 747,871 2.2%
2005 5,630,124 16.3%
2006 17,635,093 51.0%
2007 10,251,954 29.7%
2009 168,547 0.5%
Total 34,548,712

The average vintage is mid-2006, which is lousy for any debt portfolio on residential real estate in the US. I would expect bad performance from a portfolio with these characteristics.

Compared to ML III, ML II has better collateral, but worse vintage years. Both are messes. I am not saying that the Fed will necessarily lose money on either one, but I question the valuations on the assets.

Maiden Lane II: Müll, den die Fed AIG abgenommen hat.


http://alephblog.com/2010/04/04/thoughts-on-maiden-lane-iii/
Zitat:
  • The average rating on the bonds in the portfolio is B-, with 61% rated CCC or lower. (Composite rating of Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch.)
  • 98.3% of the portfolios are some type of CDO.
  • On average, the deals owned were originated in 2006, with 73% between 2005 and 2007, and 96% between 2004 and 2008.


Maiden Lane III - der Müll, den die Fed AIG abgenommen hat - ist in der Tat Müll: 61% der Anleihen sind CCC oder schlechter geraten.

... aber sonst ändert sich nichts? Doch, doch...

http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/snapmain.htm

Zusammengetragen aus den verschiedenen Tabellen dort:

SUPPLEMENTAL NUTRITION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM:  AVERAGE MONTHLY PARTICIPATION (PERSONS)
(Data as of March 30, 2010)
FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 2005..2009
Personen 25,717,830 26,672,294 26,468,563 28,409,880 33,722,293 +31%
Haushalte 11,197,377 11,734,491 11,789,594 12,728,981 15,232,105 +36%
$/Person+Monat 92.57 94.32 95.63 101.52 124.45 +34%

33 Mio. von 309 Mio. Amerikanern erhalten also Ernährungsbeihilfen... und das Programm kostete 2009 insgesamt 76% mehr als 2005. Das ist mal eine beeindruckend wachsende Industrie...

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2010/04/bond_yields
Zitat:Kit Juckes of the Ecu group points out that the yield on the 30-year treasury bond yield has moved above its 100-month average. This average has been trending down since the mid-1980s so this is quite a moment (as of last night's close, the yield was 4.84% and the average was 4.71%).

This suggests the long post-Volcker period of declining yields has finally ended. [...] And, as the Greeks are discovering, rising bond yields add to the problems of a government with a weak economy and huge deficit.


Yields of 30 Y US treasuries

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/10/04/US_CNSMRC0410.gif
US consumer credit
Aber das Deleveraging ist ganz bestimmt vorbei!11!!

http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2010/04/08/us-long-term-debt-most-costly-since-before-lehmans/
Yields of 30y US treasuries
Zitat:Long-term debt is costing the US government more than at any time in recent history. The latest auction on 30-year US Treasuries secured the highest yields since August 2007 - 4.77 per cent.

Diese Marktverzerrung nähert sich also dem Ende.

http://www.fcnp.com/commentary/national/6234-the-peak-oil-crisis-countdown-at-the-guri.html
Zitat:Most Americans have never heard of Venezuela's great Guri dam. Completed in 1978 with 20 generators and 10,200 MW of generating capacity, at one time it had the most generating capacity of any hydro dam in the world.

10200 Mw - durchaus beeindruckend.

Zitat:The rainy season in Venezuela which refills the reservoirs runs from June to October. The summer of 2009 it was a catastrophe. Rainfall was only about one third of normal so that by last fall alarm bells began sounding as it looked as if the water could fall to the level where the dam would have to shut down most of its generating capacity.

Zitat:The length of any shutdown would be dependent on rainfall in the Guri's watershed. This week 600 m3 of water per second is flowing into the Guri reservoir and 4300 m3 per second are being released to generate power at the Guri and downstream dams. At the height of the summer rainy season, up to 12,000 m3 /second can flow into the Guri reservoir. However, unless heavy rains begin in the next six weeks or so, much of the dam's power production will have to be shut down somewhere around the end of May.

Mit anderen Worten, Venezuela kann ab Ende Mai ein echtes Problem mit der Stromerzeugung der Wasserkraftwerke bekommen.
Nun gut, aber Venezuela hat viel Öl, und kann sicherlich ein bissel mehr Öl verstromen?

Zitat:If this happens, the Chavez government will have a very serious problem. The country has already been enduring rolling blackouts for months in an effort to reduce electricity consumption. Major industrial enterprises have been closed. There is much unemployment and the whole nation was forced to take a week off work over Easter to reduce power consumption. A recent currency devaluation has run up prices of imported goods and the first signs of social unrest are starting to appear. Should electricity production drop 50 percent or more, there is no telling where all this would lead in terms of oil exports and the cohesiveness of the Venezuelan society.

Nein, offensichtlich nicht: Dieser Musterstaat des modernen Sozialismus hat keine Reserven [footnote]was auf alle Musterstaaten des Sozialismus zutraf, soweit ich weiß.[/footnote]

Wie der Ölpreis reagieren wird, wenn Chavez wegen Wahlen mehr Öl im Inland verbrauchen läßt?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=atnu8kBn2P3g

Zitat:Venezuela’s largest thermoelectric plant has been idled since April 5 amid an electricity crisis as President Hugo Chavez plans to extend mandatory conservation measures through November.

The Planta Centro power plant, which has total generating capacity of 2,000 megawatts, has been completely offline for three days, the national grid operator said today on its Web site. The plant is conducting maintenance work and will restart a 350-megawatt turbine tomorrow morning, with another turbine coming online April 15, Electricity Minister Ali Rodriguez said.

Chavez declared an electricity crisis in February and ordered companies and residences to cut power use by 20 percent to avert a collapse of the grid after a drought drained water from hydroelectric reservoirs. Venezuela depends on hydropower for more than two-thirds of its energy needs.

“We’re going to extend the presidential electricity emergency decree, probably for another six months,” Rodriguez said today at a press conference in Caracas. “We’ll progressively reduce rationing, but I can’t say when.”


Und dabei ist Venezuela ein _so_ reiches Land.

http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/03/03/en_eco_art_venezuela-recession_03A3521851.shtml
Zitat:The data published by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) at the end of the fourth quarter of 2009 make clear that the recession has deepened despite the recovery in oil prices.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, the price of the Venezuelan oil basket averaged USD 70.20, thus leaving far behind a decline due the global financial crisis. However, the Gross Domestic Product fell by 5.8 percent.

The statistics show that in the fourth quarter of 2009, private consumption declined 6.7 percent, investment plummeted 19.6 percent, government spending slightly increased by 2.1 percent, although it was the smallest increase in the past seven years. The only positive data was the surge of Venezuelan oil exports (56.2 percent), due to the rebound in oil prices.


Den Daten fehlt natürlich das letzte bischen Genauigkeit - und hoffentlich sind sie bereits annualisiert...

Laut US Department of State (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35766.htm) hat Venezuelas BIP 2009 insgesamt 2.9% verloren, laut http://www.eluniversal.com/201 [verkürzt] ia-venezolana_02A3517091.shtml rund 3.3%.

Gruß, Uwe

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