Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2009-09-29 16:14:26
Ausgabe 87
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/09/climate-change-alps-leave-europe-dry.php?dcitc=th_rss_travel
Zitat:Temperatures in the Alps are increasing at a rate more than twice the global average, according to a recent report by the European Environment Agency, "Regional climate change and adaptation: The Alps facing the challenge of changing water resources." The change has serious ramifications not only for the alpine climate itself, but also for the broad swath of Europe that relies on the water these "cherished but endangered mountains" collect and deliver.

Europe's Water Supply Threatened
As the changing global climate affects precipitation and snow-cover patterns in the Alps, it also impacts the amount of water these "water towers of Europe" can provide to millions of people in lowland areas. The vulnerable region is home to most of the headwaters of major rivers, including the Danube, Rhine, Po, and Rhone, and its glaciers provide 40 percent of Europe's fresh water.
[...]

Zitat:Plant Species at Risk

The Alps, which traverse Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Liechtenstein, Slovenia, and Switzerland, host at least 4,500 plant species, more than a third of the flora recorded in Europe, including ferns, conifers, and flowering plants and almost 400 endemic species. According to the EEA, "the tree line is projected to shift upward by several hundred meters... restrict[ing] the alpine zone to higher elevations, severely threatening the alpine flora." Cold-water fish species including greyling, brown trout, perch, and Danube salmon are also already showing signs of stress from warmer water temperatures.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20327273.800-climate-change-may-trigger-earthquakes-and-volcanoes.html?full=true
Zitat:FAR from being the benign figure of mythology, Mother Earth is short-tempered and volatile. So sensitive in fact, that even slight changes in weather and climate can rip the planet's crust apart, unleashing the furious might of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and landslides.

Zitat von Mehr Wasser -> mehr Beben:The researchers focused on the Easter microplate - the tectonic plate that lies beneath the ocean off the coast of Easter Island - because it is relatively isolated from other faults. This makes it easier to distinguish changes in the plate caused by climate systems from those triggered by regional rumbles. Since 1973, the arrival of El Niño every few years has correlated with a greater frequency of underwater quakes between magnitude 4 and 6.

The team is confident that the two are linked. El Niño raises the local sea level by a few tens of centimetres, and they believe the extra water weight may increase the pressure of fluids in the pores of the rock beneath the seabed. This might be enough to counteract the frictional force that holds the slabs of rock in place, making it easier for faults to slip. "The changes in sea level are tiny," says Day. "A small additional perturbation can have a substantial effect."

Zitat von Weniger Wasser -> mehr Vulkanausbrüche:Small ocean changes can also influence volcanic eruptions, says David Pyle of the University of Oxford. His study of eruptions over the past 300 years with Ben Mason of the University of Cambridge and colleagues reveals that volcanism varies with the seasons. The team found that there are around 20 per cent more eruptions worldwide during the northern hemisphere's winter than the summer (Journal of Geophysical Research, DOI: 10.1029/2002JB002293). The reason may be that global sea level drops slightly during the northern hemisphere's winter. Because there is more land in the northern hemisphere, more water is locked up as ice and snow on land than during the southern hemisphere's winter.

Zitat von Mehr Regen -> Vulkanausbruch:Small changes in rainfall can also trigger volcanic eruptions. In 2001, a major eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano on the Caribbean island of Montserrat was set in motion by particularly heavy rainfall. This destabilised the volcano's dome enough for it to collapse and unleash magma within. Now it seems even typical tropical rain showers could trigger an eruption. And climate models suggest that many regions, including parts of the tropics, are likely to get wetter with climate change.

Klingt widersprüchlich? Ist es aber nicht.


http://7thspace.com/headlines/321601/unusual_arctic_warmth_tropical_wetness_likely_cause_for_methane_increase.html
Zitat:Unusually high temperatures in the Arctic and heavy rains in the tropics likely drove a global increase in atmospheric methane in 2007 and 2008 after a decade of near-zero growth, according to a new study. Methane is the second most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, albeit a distant second.

NOAA scientists and their colleagues analyzed measurements from 1983 to 2008 from air samples collected weekly at 46 surface locations around the world. Their findings will appear in the September 28 print edition of the American Geophysical Union’s Geophysical Research Letters and are available online now.

“At least three factors likely contributed to the methane increase,” said Ed Dlugokencky, a methane expert at NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. “It was very warm in the Arctic, there was some tropical forest burning, and there was increased rain in Indonesia and the Amazon.”


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8279654.stm
Zitat:In a dramatic acceleration of forecasts for global warming, UK scientists say the global average temperature could rise by 4C (7.2F) as early as 2060.
[...]
The finding was presented at an Oxford University conference exploring the implications of a 4C rise.

The results show a "best estimate" of 4C being reached by 2070, with a possibility that it will come as early as 2060.


4° bis 2060.

Alles wird warm.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=abvAze6O9_d0
Zitat:The average world ocean temperature from June through August was the warmest since 1880 for any Northern Hemisphere summer, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

The summer ocean surface temperature was 62.5 degrees Fahrenheit (16.95 Celsius), which is 1.04 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average, the agency said today in a statement. The combined land and ocean surface temperature for the period was 61.2 degrees Fahrenheit, the third-warmest on record.


http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/sep2009/2009-09-25-02.asp
Eigentlich kann man den Artikel ganz zitieren, lesenswert ist jedes einzelne Wort:
Zitat:
This new analysis of the latest, peer-reviewed science indicates that many predictions at the upper end of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change's forecasts are becoming more likely. Some events thought likely to occur in the long-term are already happening or will happen far sooner than had previously thought, the report shows.
[...]
The growth in carbon dioxide emissions from energy and industry has exceeded even the most fossil-fuel intensive scenario developed by the IPCC at the end of the 1990s. Global emissions were growing by 1.1 percent each year from 1990-1999 and this accelerated to 3.5 percent per year from 2000-2007.

Yet the scientists documented in the Compendium suggest that it may still be possible to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change, but only if there is immediate, cohesive and decisive action to both cut emissions and assist vulnerable countries to adapt.
[...]
The observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is raising concern among some scientists that warming of between 1.4 and 4.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial surface temperatures could occur.

This exceeds the range of between one and three degrees perceived as the threshold for many "tipping points," including the end of summer Arctic sea ice, and the eventual melting of Himalayan glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet.
[...]
The report indicates losses of tropical and temperate mountain glaciers affecting from 20 to 25 percent of the world's population in terms of drinking water, irrigation and hydro-power.
[...]
Management alternatives suggested include large-scale translocation or assisted colonization of species; eco-agriculture, in which landscapes are managed to sustain a range of ecosystem services, including food production; and the use of biochar, biologically-derived charcoal that is mixed in soils, increasing fertility and potentially locking up carbon for centuries.

Experts increasingly agree that active protection of tropical forests is a cost-effective means of cutting global emissions. An international mechanism of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, REDD, is likely to emerge as a central component of a new agreement in Copenhagen.


http://www.physorg.com/news169699401.html
Zitat:China's giant panda could be extinct in just two to three generations as rapid economic development is infringing on its way of life, state media said on Monday, citing an expert at conservation group WWF.

The problem is that the pandas' habitat is being split up into ever smaller patches, preventing the animals from roaming freely for mating partners and in turn endangering their gene pool, the Global Times reported.

"If the panda cannot mate with those from other habitats, it may face extinction within two to three generations," said Fan Zhiyong, Beijing-based species programme director for WWF. "We have to act now."

The risk of inbreeding is increasing, threatening to reduce the panda's resistance to diseases and lowering its ability to reproduce, the paper said.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090916/wl_nm/us_food_wfp_1
Zitat:Food aid is at a 20-year low despite the number of critically hungry people soaring this year to its highest level ever, the United Nations relief agency said Wednesday.
[...]
To date the WFP has confirmed $2.6 billion in funding for its 2009 budget of $6.7 billion.

Ja, kein Wunder, wir mußten ja hungrige Bankster retten.

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/baltic-dry-index-continues-leading-the-stock-market-2943.html
Zitat:While the Baltic Dry Index is a leading economic indicator, lately, it has been also behaving as a leading indicator of the stock market.

I hinted towards this early in the year when it looked like it had put in a significant bottom and I wondered if the Baltic Dry Index would lead the stock market higher. Of course, we now know it certainly did.

The index measuring international shipping rates around the world bottomed in early December 2008 three months ahead of the stock market (green arrows):
Baltic Dry versus S&P 500


Korrelation?

http://www.greenercomputing.com/news/2009/08/07/developing-nations-may-reuse-more-electronics-thought
Zitat:What the researchers found suggests that, at least in one country, imported electronics are not immediately destined for meltdown or other polluting and poisonous dismantling practices, as has been shown in China and other countries: In Peru, Williams said in an article from ACS, "At least 85 percent of discarded computers imported to Peru are reused, as opposed to going directly to recycling. [... Thus,] the image of the trade in e-waste as mainly being about dumping unusable junk is, at least for Peru, inaccurate."

Also from the article, written by Kellyn S. Betts:

The researchers determined that once the computers entered the country, they were generally handled in a very efficient way by the country's reuse and recycling sector in a "reverse supply chain". In the metropolitan capital Lima, the team documented that informal and formal businesses act together to generate a "highly dynamic flow [that] reuses and recycles almost every part and material found in a computer," Williams says.


Das könnte man für vorbildlich halten.

http://www.futurespros.com/news/commodities---futures-news/interview-when-will-we-hit-peak-oil -try-2009---macquarie-84926
Zitat:Peak oil supply will be hit this year after the economic crisis and low prices in the first quarter of 2009 slashed much needed investment, a senior executive at Australian investment bank Macquarie said.

"This is our view -- capacity has pretty much peaked in the sense that declines equal new resources," Iain Reid, head of European oil and gas research at Macquarie, told Reuters.

http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/09/18/not-your-average-peak-oil-theory-from-macquarie/

Zitat:Under a slide titled ‘Not your average peak oil theory’, he writes that there is no shortage of oil reserves, but problems of access, technology and risk. Meanwhile, there are three mini-trends: resource nationalism; new oil supplies being technologically challenging; and much of the easy oil in politically difficult regions.

Here’s the most alarming graph:
Ölförderung versus Nachfrage


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6211872/Debt-deflation-laboratory-of-the-Baltics.html
Zitat:
Property prices in Estonia's Hanseatic capital of Tallinn have fallen by 59pc from their peak in the Baltic boom, a remarkable state of affairs for an EU country nestled against Russia on the most dangerous fault line in Europe.

Cost per sq.m has dropped from €1,611 (£1,455) to €669 since April 2007, according to Ober-Haus Real Estate Advisors. Swedbank says up to 30pc of its mortgages in Estonia are in negative equity. Recent loans are in euros – not the local kroon.
[...]
The economy will contract by 14.5pc this year, twice as bad as Iceland (OECD forecasts). Industrial production has fallen 28pc. The unemployed receive half their former pay for a few months, then benefits fall to £12 a week. The shock awaits this winter. Chief victims will be ethnic Russians on the lower rungs of industry.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akSrdZo5NyeY
Zitat:Foreign direct investment in China fell for a tenth straight month in July as companies stalled expansion plans amid the global financial crisis.

Investment declined 35.7 percent from a year earlier to $5.36 billion, the Commerce Ministry said at a briefing in Beijing today. That compared with a 6.76 percent drop in June.

The situation for foreign direct investment in China remains “severe” even as “positive signs” have emerged in the past two months, Vice Commerce Minister Fu Ziying said last week. Japan emerged from its worst postwar recession in the second quarter, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo, and a Bloomberg survey of users shows confidence in the world economy surged to a 22-month high in August.


http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/autoindustrie/:Ende-der-Abwrackparty-Pleitewelle-bei-Zulieferern-in-Sicht/554576.html
Zitat:Fast einem Viertel - genau 23 Prozent - der mittelständischen Autozulieferer in Deutschland droht nach Berechnungen von Branchenbeobachtern die Pleite.

"Bei rund 750 mittelständischen Automobilzuliefern sind 170 Unternehmen in Deutschland in die Kategorie 'akut insolvenzgefährdet' einzuordnen", schreibt Professor Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, Direktor des Center Automotive Research an der Universität Duisburg-Essen, in einer Gemeinschaftsstudie mit der Unternehmensberatung Struktur Management Partner.

Das unter anderem vom deutschen Branchenverband VDA erhoffte Ende der Talfahrt in der Autoindustrie sei nicht in Sicht, lautet das Fazit der Untersuchung. "330 Unternehmen oder 44 Prozent aller Zulieferer sind nach Einschätzung der Banker 'gefährdet, aber rettbar' - und nur ein Drittel aller Zulieferer, also 250 Unternehmen, sind aus Bankersicht problemlos", heißt es in der Studie.


67 Prozent sind also gefährdet, und davon ist ein Drittel hin.

Zitat:"In Deutschland beobachten wir mittlerweile unter Einrechnung der Abwrackprämie Spitzenrabatte von 58 Prozent. Das Preisgefüge im deutschen Gebrauchtwagenmarkt ist zerstört, die Reparaturleistungen der kleinen Werkstattbetriebe gehen zurück, und der Gewöhnungs-Effekt an Mega-Rabatte wird den Automarkt in Europa noch längere Zeit in seinen Gewinnaussichten verschlechtern", heißt es in der Studie. Die Margen seien hauchdünn - und rote Zahlen in der deutschen Autobranche im nächsten Jahr wahrscheinlich.

Hey, das klingt ja wie, äh, dieses Gespenst mit D am Anfang... dieses Wort, was man nicht kennt in D-Land...

Zitat:Dudenhöffer bekräftigt in dem Papier seine Prognose, dass die Zulassungszahlen in Deutschland 2010 um eine Million auf 2,7 Millionen Pkw sinken werden.

Auf dem Weltmarkt für Autos sehe es ebenfalls düster aus. Allein China weise ein stabiles Wachstumsmuster auf - aber das Land steht derzeit nur für 13 Prozent der weltweit verkauften Autos. Audi beispielsweise teilte am Montag mit, im September ein zweites Werk in China mit seinem dortigen Partner First Automobile Works zu eröffnen.

Die übrigen Fahrzeugmärkte seien dagegen fragil, schreibt der Auto-Experte. Die Pkw-Verkäufe in Europa - einschließlich der EU-Erweiterungsstaaten und Ost-Europa mit Russland - dürften 2010 auf rund 15,3 Millionen sinken.

In Westeuropa würden 2010 seit langer Zeit mit 11,9 Millionen Pkw-Verkäufen weniger als 12 Millionen Pkw zugelassen. "Unter Ende der Talfahrt stellt man sich eigentlich etwas anderes vor", lautet das Fazit.


Mir ist ja nicht ganz klar, warum Opel gerettet werden muß. Um irgendwoanders Produktionskapazitäten stillegen zu müssen, in einem Konzern, der nicht sowieso schon wackelt?

http://www.reuters.com/article/internal_ReutersNewsRoom_BehindTheScenes_MOLT/idUSTRE58M40B20090923
Zitat:The German army has identified a series of wind park projects as a threat to national security and blocked investments worth 1.5 billion euros because it fears spinning wind turbines will interfere with its radar systems.

The Bundeswehr has launched an investigation into the impact of the wind turbines planned for northern Germany's coastal area amid concerns they could compromise air defense -- because they could in theory provide a shield for enemy aircraft.


vielleicht müßte man der Bundeswehr mal den Saft abstellen, damit die Leute dort verstehen, wofür man Windparks baut...

http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2009/09/10/Irans-oil-revenue-plummets/UPI-75331252597579/
Zitat:Revenue from Iranian oil exports plunged 51 percent in the first five months of the Iranian year due in part to the global economic recession, officials said.

Hamid Hosseini, who heads the Iranian Oil Product Exporters Union, said revenue from the export of Iranian oil products was $1.57 billion for the first five months of the Iranian year, down from $3.26 billion in the same reporting period in 2008, state-funded broadcaster Press TV reports.


Ergo: circa 300 Mio. pro Monat.

http://www.upi.com/Energy_Reso [verkürzt] screpancies/UPI-38201253740655/

Zitat:Massive discrepancies between Iran's oil revenues and official statistics over the last four years are being covered in the national press.
[...]
The newspaper reported that the $25 billion shortfall in official statistics inside the government widened following the publication of statistics by the Central Bank about Iran's imports and exports during the last few years, highlighting that the statistical difference by the Central Bank and the Oil Ministry during the four-year period of Iran's ninth government is over $27 billion.

Huh?
4 Jahre a 12 Monate a 300 Mio. macht laut meiner Rechnung... 14.4 Mrd.
Wie in aller Welt können davon 27 Mrd. fehlen?

http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article192697.ece
Zitat:Iran will be short of around 200 million cubic metres per day of gas this winter due to rapid growth in demand, a daily newspaper reported Iran's oil minister as saying.

Iran has bought its first diesel cargoes for six months in September to supplement gas it is burning in power plants.

The country sits on the world's second-largest gas reserves but has failed to develop them fast enough to meet domestic demand.
[...]
"It seems because of the protective (subsidy) policies, in all fields, waste is prevalent ... Growth in gas consumption in the first half of the current year exceeded average consumption in the corresponding period last year by 30%."

Earlier this year, Iranian officials were so confident gas supplies would be sufficient to meet demand that they allocated no money from the federal budget for diesel imports.

Then, officials said increased output from the world's largest pure gas field at South Pars would be enough to meet demand.

Mirkazemi said Iran's gas industry was lacking around $16 billion in funding.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8279290.stm
Zitat:The Garden of Eden is in danger of turning into a dustbowl. The legendary Eden was in Mesopotamia, the land between two rivers - the Tigris and the Euphrates. For hundreds of miles between their lower reaches there is fabulously fertile farmland.

[...]
Zitat:The Tigris - and the Euphrates to the west - are 50% to 70% lower than they were 10 years ago.

At the National Centre for Water Management in Baghdad, senior engineer Zuhair Hassan Ahmed showed me graphs recording the levels of the two rivers over the past 10 years.

The "water year" starts in October. The hand-drawn lines for 2008 and 2009, for the Tigris and the Euphrates, confirm that their levels are well below the mean.

And Mr Ahmed explains that drought in Iraq is only part of the problem. The shortage of water for each river, he tells me, is caused mainly by lack of rain and snowmelt in the mountains of Turkey where the rivers rise.

Another factor is a series of dams on the Euphrates in Turkey and Syria, reducing flow before the river enters Iraq.


http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017972.shtml
Zitat:Seasonally adjusted Irish merchandise exports fell by 8% in July, relative to June 2009 and imports hit a new low point for recent years. June 2009 exports increased by 5% relative to May 2009 while imports decreased by 9%, according to the CSO.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017971.shtml
Zitat:Initial estimates of Irish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP) for Q2 - - the second quarter - - of 2009 show year on year declines in both measures. Compared with the corresponding quarter of 2008, GDP at constant prices was 7.4 per cent lower while GNP was 11.6 per cent lower. The CSO said today that on a quarterly basis the seasonally adjusted estimates show no change in GDP compared with the previous quarter while there was a small decline of 0.5% in GNP, signalling that the economy remained in recession.

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017950.shtml
Zitat:Irish net emigration has resumed for first time since 1995. The number of emigrants from the State in the year to April 2009 is estimated to have increased by over 40% from 45,300 to 65,100, while the number of immigrants continued to decline over the same period, from 83,800 to 57,300. These combined changes have resulted in a return to net outward migration for Ireland (-7,800).

http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1017949.shtml
Zitat:There were 1,938,500 persons in Irish employment in the second quarter of 2009, an annual decrease of 174,300 or 8.2%. This compares with an annual decrease in employment of 7.5% in the previous quarter and a decline of 0.1% in the year to the second quarter of 2008. The unemployment rate rose to 11.6%. Non-Irish nationals who were in employment fell 59,600.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqeTAJ5shNg0
Zitat:Ireland plans to spend 54 billion euros ($79 billion) buying real-estate loans to purge the country’s financial system of the toxic assets that are crippling what was once Europe’s fastest-growing economy.
[...]
In what may be the biggest financial gamble in 87 years as a sovereign state, the government will spend about 28 percent of the country’s gross domestic product for 2008 to become the owner of loans for property developments that are plunging in value. Ireland is suffering the worst economic slump of any developed nation since the Great Depression, according to the Economic & Social Research Institute in Dublin.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDNRNO_7POaI
Zitat:The office vacancy rate at the end of the second quarter was 21 percent in Dublin, compared with 8 percent in London and 10 percent in Berlin, according to CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. As many as 35,000 new homes are now vacant, estimates Davy, the country’s largest securities firm, up from 20,000 18 months ago.

“We are familiar with the specter of the ghost village that have seven or eight housing developments but hardly a house sold,” said Joan Burton, finance spokeswoman of the opposition Labor Party. “All of us have been in NAMA-land.”


In absoluter Kurzform: In Irland ist alles so, wie es vor dem Boom war, nur mit mehr Leerstand und mehr miesen auf den Konten.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8279832.stm
Zitat:Japan's core consumer prices dropped 2.4% in August year-on-year, the fourth successive month of record falls.

Official figures showed core prices, which exclude those of volatile fresh food, fell for a sixth month in a row.

The record fall for August was due to lower petrol and other energy costs as well as weak domestic demand.

http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/09/deflationary-spiral-in-japan.html
Econompicdata hat dazu dies:
japcpi.png


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/20/world/asia/20tuna.html
Zitat:Just a decade or two ago, each boat here could routinely catch three or four tuna a day, fishermen say. Now, they say Oma’s entire fleet of 30 to 40 boats is lucky to bring in a combined total of a half-dozen tuna in a day.

Ein Rückgang um 90%.

Und wer ist Schuld?

Zitat:The problem, they say, is that all the fish are being taken by big trawlers that come from elsewhere in Japan, or farther out to sea from Taiwan or China. Some of these ships even use helicopters to spot schools of tuna, which they scoop up in vast nets or catch en masse with long lines of baited hooks.

Und was wird dagegen getan?

Zitat:Fishing experts say the overfishing is a result of a broader failure by the Tokyo authorities to impose effective limits on catches in its waters. Indeed, Japan, which consumes some 80 percent of the 60,000 tons of top-grade tuna caught worldwide, has lobbied hard against efforts to limit tuna catches, such as are now being proposed by European countries for the Atlantic Ocean.

Nichts.

Warum sollte man auch etwas gegen die Vernichtung der Umwelt tun? Wenn man es nicht selber macht, würden es ja Andere tun.


http://www.vancouversun.com/news/aims+improve+ties+between+residents+industry+wake+bombings/2035555/story.html
Zitat von umsortiert:Öl und Gas bringen das nicht das Beste im Menschen hervor: Den Bombenleger...
There have been six explosions targeting EnCana Corp. gas projects in northeastern B.C. since October last year, when an anonymous letter was sent to the Dawson Creek newspaper, warning EnCana to stop drilling and leave the area, about 600 kilometres northwest of Edmonton.

In the wake of six bombings targeting natural-gas pipelines on the B.C.-Alberta border, the B.C. government announced Friday a package of reforms aimed at improving relations between the oil and gas industry and residents.


Siehe auch Re: Alles wird gut!!!55! - Kanada: Angriff auf Gasproduktion.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5771
Zitat von Zum Ausmaß:The oil sands underlie 140,800 square kilometres, or 21% of the province of Alberta. Updated figures from the Alberta government’s Department of Energy show that the mining portion of this land base will be approximately 4,750 square kilometres, and that 99% of the mineable area has already been leased.

Zitat von Renaturisierung:Reclamation of boreal forest lands after development is quite a challenge for the industry, and the boreal ecosystem will never be fully restored. While wetlands occupy about 40-50% of the landscape before development, reclamation projects are returning the landscape to a predominantly upland, forested ecosystem. Reclamation of peatland (a type of wetland) ecosystems is still undemonstrated.

renaturisiert wird, aber anders...

Zitat von CO2:Oil sands development is carbon-intensive. The production and upgrading required to produce synthetic crude oil from oil sands mining results in greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 62 to 164 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per barrel. In situ development, which is generally more carbon-intensive than mining, results in emission rates between 99 and 176 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per barrel. Although there is a high degree of variation, industry average emissions for oil sands production and upgrading are estimated to be 3.2 to 4.5 times as intensive per barrel as conventional crude produced in North America.

Zitat von Wasser:Producing a barrel of synthetic crude oil from the oil sands by mining requires two to four barrels of fresh water after taking into account water recycling. Companies are currently licensed to withdraw over 590,000,000 cubic metres of water per year, which is roughly equivalent to what a city of 3 million people would require. Water for oil sands mining is pumped from the Athabasca River, a river that fluctuates seasonally as well as year to year, and withdrawing water during natural low flow periods (which occur primarily in the winter) has the potential to harm aquatic life in the river. This water cannot be returned to the river system because it becomes toxic in the extraction process and must be retained in tailings ponds.

Zitat von Abwasser:The liquid tailings, a by product of the oil sands mining process, contain naphthenic acids, unrecovered hydrocarbons and trace metals, making it toxic to aquatic organisms and mammals.
[...]
There are currently over 720 billion litres of toxic tailings on the landscape in the Athabasca oil sands area. These ponds cover an area of more than 130 square kilometres. By 2040 these tailings are expected to occupy 310 square kilometres, an area nearly the size of Vancouver. No tailings ponds have been reclaimed to date.
[...]
A dominant plan for reclaiming liquid tailings at mine closure is to deposit them in end pit lakes. Tailings would be dumped into old mine pits and capped with water from the Athabasca River. This method is unproven. The concern is that the water and tailings layers will mix and there is also some fear that the end pit lakes will be unable to sustain aquatic life. However, many mining projects to date have been approved based on dealing with tailings in this manner. A fully realized end pit lake has not yet been constructed.

Endlagerung auf kanadisch, genauso überlegt wie anderswo.

http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/kenia380.html
Zitat:
In Kenia hat der Kahlschlag der Wälder verheerende Folgen. Mit der Abholzung der Bäume blieb der Regen aus. Die Region um den Mau-Wald war einst die grüne Lunge Kenias. Jetzt ist sie zum größten ökologischen Problem des Landes geworden.
[...]
Luftaufnahmen zeigen, dass etwa ein Drittel der Bäume im Mau-Wald verschwunden ist. Über ihren Wipfeln hatte sich sonst kühle Luft gebildet. Die stieß mit warmer Luft vom einigen hundert Kilometer entfernten Victoria-See zusammen. Die Folge: Regen. Aber jetzt gibt es keine kühlen Luftmassen und folglich auch keinen Regen mehr. Die zwölf Flüsse, die im Mau-Wald entspringen, führen kaum noch Wasser. Dadurch können sie auch die Seen der Umgebung nicht versorgen.
[...]
Die Versorgung von mehr als fünf Millionen Menschen mit Wasser ist gefährdet.
[...]
Und auch die kenianischen Wildparks sind bedroht. Die legendäre Tierwanderung in der Maasai Mara, ein Schauspiel, das jedes Jahr Tausende Touristen lockt, wird diesmal wohl ausfallen. Der Fluss, den Gnus und andere Wildtiere alljährlich überqueren, führt kein Wasser. In vielen Regionen des Parks überleben die Elefanten, Zebras und Gazellen nur, weil Wildhüter sie mit Wasser versorgen, sagt Anne Kahiya von der Parkbehörde. Doch selbst das ist nicht ganz einfach. "Wir nutzen unsere Bohrlöcher. Aber auch von denen sind viele schon ausgetrocknet. Wir pumpen für eine kurze Zeit Wasser herauf, aber dann kommt nichts mehr und wir müssen warten, bis sie sich wieder auffüllen." Bald könnte das Wasser auch dort endgültig versiegen, befürchtet Kahiya. Dann werden die Tiere Zuflucht in anderen Parks suchen - oder sterben.

Auch die BBC hat etwas darüber:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8057316.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8055553.stm

Und natürlich hat sie auch Bilder. Das hier war mal ein See:
Ehermaliger See

Die Bauern werden nun umgesiedelt, aber sind sie die Schuldigen? Oder viel mehr weitere Opfer?

http://www.survival-international.de/nachrichten/308

Zitat von Von 2001:Die Heimat der Ogiek, der Mau Wald, steht unter dem Schutz des kenianischen Forstgesetzes. Unter dem Vorwand, die Umwelt vor den Aktivitäten der Ogiek zu schützen, haben Regierungen schon zu Kolonialzeiten versucht, sie aus dem Wald zu vertreiben und die Behörden versuchen bis heute, sie aus ihren ursprünglichen Gebieten zu verjagen. Die Ogiek haben es immer wieder geschafft zurückzukehren, doch nun sind sie der bisher schlimmsten Bedrohung ausgesetzt.

Obwohl das Volk der Ogiek den Wald immer schonend genutzt hat, behauptet Kenias Regierung, er müsse vor diesen Jägern und Sammlern geschützt werden. Inzwischen hat die Regierung fast 60.000 ha des betroffenen Waldes für die private Nutzung frei gegeben. Nicht die Ogiek, sondern vor allem Unternehmer wie Teeplantagenbesitzer und Holzfäller sowie Siedler aus anderen Gegenden des Landes werden davon profitieren. Drei einflussreiche Holzfällerunternehmen – Pan African Paper Mills, Raiply Timber und Timsales Ltd. – haben ihre Arbeit bereits aufgenommen.


Mich dünkt, die Ogiek haben verloren, die Holzfäller gewonnen, und alles wird gut.

Immerhin, so lernt die Welt vielleicht, wie man Urwälder regeneriert...


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=aVfWjXfxdu9U
Zitat:Lithuania’s recession, the deepest in the European Union, is close to bottoming out and the economy may start growing next year if trade demand continues to gain strength, central bank Governor Reinoldijus Sarkinas said.

Under positive external conditions, a recovery, even if at very low growth rates, may begin next year,” Sarkinas said in an interview in Vilnius yesterday.

The government of Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius expects the economy to contract 4.3 percent next year as the Baltic state adapts to tough austerity measures needed to comply with euro adoption terms. Lithuania, like neighboring Latvia and Estonia, pegs its currency to the euro inside the exchange rate mechanism, obliging the government to deflate the economy to stay competitive instead of relying on a weak litas.


Naja, dann wünsche ich euch mal sehr positive externe Bedingungen, aber ganz ehrlich: ich glaube nicht, daß sie kommen, und ich glaube nicht, daß eine schwache Erholung für einen so fürchterlich gebeutelten Staat sich anders anfühlt wie eine Fortsetzung der Depression.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5768
Zitat:at the beginning of the year Cantarell was producing 862,000 bd and at the end of July this was down to 588,000 bd. The graph plotting decline continues to show a linear decent at the rate of 35,000 bd per month or roughly 100,000 bd every three months – giving it just 17-months at that rate (ending right at the end of next year) until there is nothing left. Somewhere in there the drop is likely to stabilize, but suddenly and soon the questions as to where the replacement hundreds of thousands of barrels are going to come from is going to stop being an almost academic exercise.

Cantarell-Förderung
Und die Auswirkungen auf den großen Nachbarn?
US-Ölimporte aus Mexiko
Ein Gutes hat das ja: Wenn mehr Öl aus weiter Ferne herbei geschafft werden muß, liegen weniger Tanker still herum Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

http://www.pennenergy.com/index/articles/display/8973023650/s-articles/s-oil-gas-journal/s-volume-107/s-Issue_29/s-General_Interest/s-Special_Report__Pemex__PDVSA__Petrobras__how_strategies__results_differ.html
Zitat:Ku Maloob Zaap (KMZ) adjacent to Cantarell in the Gulf of Campeche is the largest source of new production growth. It recently overtook Cantarell as Mexico’s biggest producer, with record output of 814,000 b/d in April. The KMZ complex produced 740,000 b/d of crude in 2008, up from 550,700 b/d in 2007. Production has doubled in the last 3 years with a nitrogen reinjection program similar to one at Cantarell. Pemex expects KMZ production to peak at 820,000 b/d before declining to 810,000 b/d next year.

KMZ: "before declining ... next year". Oops - Peak auch da.

Zitat:The Chicontepec basin with 29 distinct fields spread over 2,400 sq miles northeast of Mexico City is potentially a large contributor to Pemex’s future production. It contains 54% of Mexico’s non-Cantarell proved reserves. Pemex plans to invest $11 billion over the next 4 years at Chicontepec. It currently produces 30,000 b/d, but Pemex hopes to increase production to 700,000 b/d by 2017. Pemex estimates Chicontepec contains possible reserves of 17.7 billion boe.

Most Chicontepec crude is heavy, some as heavy as 18° gravity. The reservoir is highly fractured and at low pressure, and the region lacks infrastructure for large-scale development. Low permeability makes extraction difficult. On top of that, some analysts suggest Pemex systematically exaggerates the recoverable oil in the basin.


30000 b/d jetzt, 700000 in 2017, in einem extrem schwierigen Gebiet. Naja, für mich klingt das, als bräuchte Mexiko hohe Ölpreise um nur alleine die Förderkosten herein zuz bekommen.

Zitat:Many industry observers believe Mexico’s oil production has peaked and will continue to decline. In March, EIA forecast Mexico will produce 2.9 million b/d of oil in 2009 and 2.7 million b/d in 2010. Last year Mexico enacted legislation to reform its oil industry so Pemex could better curb the production decline. The reform permits Pemex to create incentive-based service contracts with private companies. Pemex received greater autonomy under the reforms, including the ability to issue its own debt and establish more flexible mechanisms for procurement and investment.

Was für eine schlechte Ausgangsbasis: Mexiko hat drei Waren für den Export: Arbeitskraft (momentan in den USA nicht benötigt), Drogen/Kriminalität (nicht gewünscht) und Öl (davon immer weniger), und verbraucht gleichzeitig immer mehr Öl selbst.
Um es auf den Punkt zu bringen: Der Export von Menschen und Drogen wird massiv zunehmen.

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=344490&CategoryId=14091
Zitat:Mexican state oil giant Petroleos Mexicanos said the value of its crude exports during the first eight months of the year totaled $15.4 billion, 55.5 percent less than in the same period of 2008.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSN2551766420090925
Zitat:Mexican oil production fell again in August but state oil company Pemex said it had some early indications the rapid fall in output at its giant Cantarell field may be slowing.

Mexico pumped 2.542 million bpd in August, a decline of 7.9 percent on a year ago but production at Cantarell edged higher for the first time in more than two years.
[...]
The Cantarell unit, which includes the giant field along with several nearby satellite reservoirs, produced 650,154 bpd in August, up from 646,557 bpd in July, according to the energy ministry. Output at Cantarell was 34 percent below what it yielded in August 2008.


Cantarell auf dem Weg der "Besserung", aber...
Zitat:Chincontepec produced 30,706 bpd in August, down from 32,405 bpd in July. The area produced around 29,000 bpd at the end of 2008 and Pemex has forecast that Chicontepec production will reach nearly 80,000 bpd by the end of this year.

keine gute Nachricht aus Mexiko ohne eine Schlechte dabei.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/28/content_12122787.htm
Zitat:Around September, the inhabitants of Upper Mustang, where the maximum temperature used to be about nine degrees Celsius, would start getting ready to migrate to the lower altitudes with their livestock.

However, this time it is so hot that there is no such preparation so far.
[...]
In several places, farmers have cut down the apple orchards since the fruit they produced were invested with larva. Now, they are trying to grow vegetables and corn -- crops usually associated with lower altitudes and warm temperatures.

Winter snowfall, once a regular feature, has now become a rare event, leading to the decline of snow deposits, and exposing the black rocks of high mountains where permanent snow cover used to be a key feature.
[...]
To the worry of the local people, water sources are drying up and livestock, particularly goats, are dying in large numbers due to diseases linked to unusually dry and warmer weather.


http://www.business24-7.ae/Articles/2009/9/Pages/26092009/09272009_6fd3730d4fa243f9a7c5afe4f20f2d69.aspx
Zitat:Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, wants to keep crude prices from rising to the record of $147.27 a barrel seen last year, said the kingdom's oil minister.

Ali Al Naimi also said $75 a barrel was a fair price for oil and he saw no need for Opec to change production levels ahead of the group's next meeting in December, according to a transcript of an interview with a US television channel.


Hm, ja, 75 Dollar sind ein fairer Preis. Jedenfalls fair insofern, daß es sich nicht lohnt, in der Tiefsee zu bohren...

http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/buff/2009/09/21/no-recovery-until-2016-says-extra-gloomy-report-on-spanish-property-market/
Zitat:The annual report on the Spanish property market by real estate market analysts R.R. de Acuña & Asociados has just been released. Considered one of the most influential annual reports on the sector, it’s not hard to see why hard pressed developers, banks, and Spanish property investors might not want to read it this year.

Zitat von Ein Auszug, ich hab' insbesondere die separate Aufführung der Küstenregion gestrichen::
  • At end of 2008 the supply of property for sale or under construction was 1,623,042, of which roughly 580,000 were resales, 500,000 newly built but unsold, and 470,000 under construction and nearing completion.
  • Annual demand estimated as follows: 233,000 in 2008, and 218,000 in 2009.
  • That means there are some 1,6 million homes on the market, whilst demand in the next few years is expected to run at around 220,000 homes. At current levels of demand it will take 6 to 7 years for the real estate sector to recover. So it could take until 2016 for the market to digest the current property glut.
  • The only way developers and banks will get rid of the glut of property in the medium term is selling at a loss.
  • After falling 1.83% in 2008, overall prices will fall 9.55% in 2009, 9.32% in 2010, and 4.81% in 2011, a cumulative fall of just under 25.5% in nominal terms.
  • Thanks to long lead times in the construction business, the full economic impact of the collapse in residential construction is yet to be felt. The darkest hour for the Spanish economy will come in the second half of 2010, when unemployment could reach 25%.
  • Developers will go out of business in greatest numbers during 2010 and 2011. “It gets increasingly harder for developers to refinance with assets they either can’t sell or which are already mortgaged, and are increasingly devalued,” said Fernando Rodríguez y Rodríguez de Acuña, who predicts that 75% of developers will be wiped out in the next 5 years by a combination of too much debt, the market slump, and “bad management”.

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe [verkürzt] ion-unsold-properties-in-spain/
Edward Hugh fügt dazu:

Zitat:
Personally I would only add two further points of my own.

Firstly the estimate of 25% unemployment by the end of next year contained in the report may well be on the low side, especially if the Spanish government is running out of funding for the stimulus programmes. Spanish INEM employment department officials have already leaked estimates that if the Plan E type projects are not renewed, then we could see something like 700,000 additional unemployed in October and November of this year alone. If these warnings turn out to be realistic then my feeling is that we will hit 25% unemployment around Easter, and then start heading up towards 30%. We should break through the 30% level around the turn of 2010/11 or by the spring of 2011, depending on a lot of factors which are still hard to see at this point.
[...]
My second observation is merely anecdotal, but the Acuña & Asociados report places a lot of emphasis on the coastal situation, which has, to some extent, already been “factored in” by most participants, however quite by chance I have talked with a number of people in recent days who have stressed with me just how serious the situation is in the satellite towns around Madrid, built as they have been for Ecuadorians who never arrived, or Romanians who have already left. I think this element is yet awaiting a proper accounting, and the cost is unlikely to be small.


Ich kann da keine Spur einer positiven Nachricht drin entdecken.

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-country-briefings/three-million-unsold-homes-in-spain-update/
Update zu Three Million Unsold Properties In Spain?:

Zitat:Spanish property portal idealista.com have done a bit of digging, and here is what they found. Going through the official Ministery of Housing data they were able to locate 22 “black spots” (towns or cities with over 25,000 inhabitants) where the price of housing has already reputedly fallen by more than 30% from the December 2007 peak. This compares with the official average price fall of only 8% for the whole of Spain. And incredibly (see the chart below) no less than nine of these “black spots” are in the Autonomous Community of Madrid - that’s roughly 40% of the most severely affected areas nationally are in only one community.

Oops - ein Preissturz mehr als 30% von 2007-12 bis 2009-09.

Wenn ich mir die Liste auf http://www.idealista.com/news/archivo/2009/09/17/0102112-gobierno-destapa-22-puntos-negros-precio-vivienda-nueva-ha-desplomado ansehe, glaube ich eher nicht, daß die offiziellen 8% Immobilienpreisverfall irgendetwas mit der Realität zu tun haben...


http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2009/09/24/Ukraine-seeks-new-natural-gas-suppliers/UPI-97731253826491/
Zitat:Izvestia reported Thursday that Bogdan Sokolovsky, Ukrainian presidential representative for international energy security issues, said that in his opinion, the Cabinet of Ministers should resolve the issue of transporting Turkmenistan natural gas bound for Ukraine via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Russia.

Ukraine currently imports all of its natural gas from Russia, and in the last several years has been involved in pricing disputes with Moscow.

Urging his colleagues to look beyond the present arrangement to diversify Ukraine's natural gas supplies Sokolovsky said, "Russia and Ukraine have the intergovernmental agreement of Oct. 4, 2001, which includes an item on transit of Russia's gas via Ukraine. This document is effective in the period up to 2013," an arrangement which he said causes "discomfort" for Ukraine as it constrains its supply options.


Spätestens 2013 wird die Frage der europäischen Gasversorgung wieder interessant - falls die Ukraine nicht zwischendurch wieder einen Anfall von Pleite bekommt. Und warum sollte sie nicht?

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1925796,00.html
Zitat:By any quantifiable standard, the city is on life support. Detroit's treasury is $300 million short of the funds needed to provide the barest municipal services. The school system, which six years ago was compelled by the teachers' union to reject a philanthropist's offer of $200 million to build 15 small, independent charter high schools, is in receivership. The murder rate is soaring, and 7 out of 10 remain unsolved. Three years after Katrina devastated New Orleans, unemployment in that city hit a peak of 11%. In Detroit, the unemployment rate is 28.9%. That's worth spelling out: twenty-eight point nine percent.

Zitat:For its part, Detroit must address the fact that a 138-sq.-mi. city that once accommodated 1.85 million people is way too large for the 912,000 who remain. The fire, police and sanitation departments couldn't efficiently service the yawning stretches of barely inhabited areas even if the city could afford to maintain those operations at their former size.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/16/business/16gret.html?_r=1&ref=business
Zitat:WITH outsized and corrupting corporate pay packages under scrutiny, you might think that companies would be rushing to tamp down their compensation plans. Making sure that pay actually rewards long-term performance, for example, seems a fairly obvious way to allay shareholder fears that managers are lining their pockets rather than safeguarding their companies.

But a study of changes made in pay practices by 191 of the nation’s largest companies this year shows that where pay is concerned, enlightenment remains a long way off. In other words, meet the new pay, same as the old.
[...]
The biggest shock? Instead of seeing a greater reliance on long-term incentive programs, the Reda report found that changes in these companies’ plans made short-term incentive pay a bigger part of the compensation pie. Let me say that again: The plans — despite the calamities that short-term profiteering has visited on our economy — made short-term incentives a bigger component of compensation.
[...]
Mr. Reda said he suspected that the increased reliance on short-term incentive pay that he found was a result of the precipitous declines in many of these companies’ share prices. Indeed, he found that the greater the drop in a company’s stock price, the more likely that its pay program was changed.

There were a variety of changes made to incentive pay that wound up skewing companies’ total packages toward short-term performance. First were the adjustments made to long-term incentive grants, like decreasing the value of awards or dispensing the same number of shares regardless of a decline in their value.

Among short-term incentive programs, some companies moved to discretionary plans, widened payout ranges or lowered performance hurdles.

The end result was a greater reliance over all on short-term incentive pay. And that invites riskier behavior among executives, Mr. Reda said.


Change we can believe in, indeed.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/08/weak-consumer-spending-will-last-for.html

US-Einzelhandelsumsätze, inflationsbereinigt, 1967 bis jetzt


Ich bleib' derweil mal bei meiner Prognose, daß Preissteigerungen in der nächsten Zeit kein Problem sind.

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressReleasesMolt/idUSTRE58G6I720090917
Zitat:About 40 percent of all U.S. junk bonds outstanding in late 2008 will likely default by 2013 as government aid measures end and a wall of corporate debt comes due, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Thursday.

By contrast, the cumulative five-year default rate was about 30 percent in the last two default cycles, Bank of America said in a report.


Überraschung: Junk bonds sind nicht die beste Investition in schlechten Zeiten.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/hotel-revpar-off-183-percent.html
Hotelertrag pro Raum in den USA:
Zitat:Overall the U.S. industry’s occupancy fell 8.6 percent to end the week at 59.6 percent. Average daily rate dropped 10.5 percent to finish the week at US$98.34. Revenue per available room for the week decreased 18.3 percent to finish at US$58.57.

Und hier die Hotelauslastung:
Hotalauslastung in den USA

Warum das wichtig ist?

Zitat:
After Labor Day business travel becomes far more important for the hotel industry than leisure travel, and so far there is no evidence that business travel is recovering significantly

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-mass-layoffs-total-events-2009-9
Wir wissen ja, das Schlimmste ist vorbei, aber...
Zitat:We're still looking for a glimmer of hope on the employment front. There are green shoots of various size and scope everywhere, but seemingly not here. Anyway, we didn't find any in the BLS's latest survey of mass layoffs -- defined as distinct events of 50 or more employees getting whacked at a single company. After some glints of hope in July, it just spiked right back up in August.

Das Schlimmste ist vorbei?


http://market-ticker.org/archives/1439-WARNING-Deflationary-Collapse-Dead-Ahead.html
Karl Denninger, sowieso selten durch Zurückhaltung auffallend, hat sie hier ganz aufgegeben.
Zitat:The fact of the matter is that you have been lied to for the last decade about our economic state, and if we do not divert from the road we are on our economy, our monetary system and our government WILL COLLAPSE.

Not "might collapse."

Not "might get bad."

WILL COLLAPSE.


Er garniert das mit der folgenden Graphik über das US-BIP im Verhältnis zu den Gesamtschulden der USA:
GDP <-> US-Gesamtschulden

Zitat von Und weiter:You think so eh? Debt outstanding will be six times greater in 20 years. GDP will be three times greater, but having started from a much lower level, will of course continue to lag.

Do you really believe that those interest payments can be made?

http://market-ticker.org/archi [verkürzt] lationary-Collapse-Ticker.html
In diesem (im gleichen Stil geschriebenen) Text geht er dann auf diverse Kritik ein, die das so nicht glauben wollte:

Zitat:It also drew critics, chief among them being people who claimed that "debt isn't really growing at that percentage beyond GDP."

Oh yes it is.

In fact, I was being rather reasonable, in that I was using time periods going all the way back to the 1950s.

But - let's focus in on "closer to today", specifically, 1990 forward.

I think we can all agree that the 1990s were tremendously good times for GDP, and were not nearly so destructive for debt, right?

Ok.

Well, I hate people telling me they think I'm being unrealistically "doom and gloomish", so I "de-theoreticalized" that chart a bit, and picked on more-recent times where the growth rates were pretty darn good and some of the really-expansive debt periods, particularly from the 70s, were not included.

Here are the ugly facts - not conjecture, not assumptions, not going back 50 years data, current and unassailable facts.

During the period from 1990 onward, GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 5.361%1. Debt during the same period, nearly 20 years, grew at a compound annual rate of 7.9401%.

It is worse if you look at 2000 onward - there GDP growth was 5.25% on an average annual basis, while debt growth was 8.6279%.

I thus have "recast" the 20-year forward graph for you in two forms - one assuming we can maintain the 1990 onward rates (which are more favorable) and the second assuming that the 2000 onward rates are what we face going forward.


Zuerst die optimistischere Vorhersage (USA wächst und verschuldet mit den Werten der 90er Jahre):
Optimische Vorhersage
Und dann die weniger positive (die Zahlen der 2000er):
Pessimistische Vorhersage

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2810407720090928
Zitat:Standard & Poor's on Monday cut its ratings on MBIA Inc (MBI.N) and its structured finance insurance arm, MBIA Insurance Corp, citing an expectation the company will continue to take significant losses from insuring risky loans.

S&P cut MBIA Insurance two notches to BB-plus, one step below investment grade, from BBB. MBIA Inc was also cut one notch to BB-minus, three steps below investment grade, from BB.

The outlook for both companies is negative, indicating additional downgrades may be likely over the next one-to-two years.


S&P ist schnell wie immer.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/163386-commercial-real-estate-boom-not-before-early-next-decade?source=feed
Zitat:During the second quarter of 2009, CRE sales were $5.2 billion compared to $30.7 billion in the year-earlier quarter and drastically down from $114.7 billion in the second quarter of 2007. In the first half of 2009, CRE sales were $16 billion -- down 80% year over year, and down 93% compared to the first half of 2007. The decline is primarily due to the credit-constrained market, which has virtually shut down avenues like mortgage lending and other loans essential for real estate sales and refinancing.

2007-Q2: $114 Mrd.
2008-Q2: $30 Mrd.
2009-Q2: $5 Mrd.

Wenn diese Tendenz anhält, kann man an dieser Stelle nächstes Jahr "Mio." schreiben.

Ahem, wie paßt das eigentlich zur Inflationsgefahr?


http://seekingalpha.com/article/163166-if-housing-were-priced-in-gold?source=feed
Eine interessante Betrachtung der Entwicklung der US-Immobilienpreise:
Zitat:At the peak in 2005, the median home price equaled 490 ounces of gold. The present median price is worth about 160 ounces of gold, or roughly the same valuation as 1988.

Median USA-Hauspreis im Verhältnis zu Gold

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=a63JiZ2hVDwA
Zitat:Luxury hotel owners risk defaulting on their debt as the recession cuts occupancies and the credit crunch constrains refinancing.

Loans secured by more than 1,500 hotels with a total outstanding balance of $24.5 billion may be in danger of default, according to Realpoint LLC, a credit rating company that tracks commercial mortgage-backed securities. Some of the biggest loans, put on the company’s watch list because of late payments, decreasing occupancies or cash flow, were made to luxury properties where rooms can cost more than $850 a night.

“All segments are showing signs of distress but the luxury segment carries much higher loan balances and is more clearly affected,” Frank Innaurato, managing director of CMBS analytical services at Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Realpoint, said in a telephone interview.


Wer hätte das gedacht? Luxushotels in Schwierigkeiten, weil die Räume für 850 Dollar pro Nacht leer bleiben?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afkUuSJuBgtw
Hinweis: Hog=Schwein.
Zitat:Hog futures, the second-worst commodity investment of 2009, may fall 33 percent by yearend from 44.65 cents a pound on Aug. 14. U.S. exports plunged 20 percent in the first half and are heading for the first annual decline since 1990 after the H1N1 virus outbreak in April led to import restrictions in China and Russia. Tyson Foods Inc. idled slaughterhouses, and U.S. hog farmers haven’t been profitable in a year.

Swine flu will contribute to an 11 percent drop in global pork trade this year, even after scientists said the meat is safe to eat, United Nations data show. Slumping exports, the global recession and improvements in breeding methods left U.S. inventories in June at a record high level for the month.

“What do we do with all these hogs?” said David Kruse, a commodity trading adviser at CommStock Investments Inc. in Royal, Iowa. “The industry is just not structured to modify production in response to reduced demand. The industry is basically structured to go broke. It will produce hogs until it runs out of money.”
[...]
Farmers are losing $30 to $35 on every pig they sell this month and may not make money until May, Grimes said. Producers have been unprofitable for 20 of the 22 months through July, and more than 5,000 of them may need to exit the business, he said. Only then would the breeding herd shrink by the 10 percent needed to spark a turnaround, he said.
[...]
Total U.S. shipments sank 20 percent through June from a year earlier to 1.985 billion pounds, the government said Aug. 13. Wholesale pork plunged 44 percent to 52.52 cents a pound since prices set a record of 94.41 cents in August 2008. Only natural gas performed worse than hogs this year on the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials, dropping 42 percent.


Aus irgendeinem Grund überrascht mich das nur wenig.
Gruß, Uwe

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