Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2009-08-16 17:08:34
Ausgabe 86
Anhängeworldtrade_custom.jpg (80 KB)
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Als Einstimmung eine Darstellung des Welthandels seit 1970:
Weltweite Exporte seit 1970

(Quelle)

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8200680.stm
Zitat:One of the largest glaciers in Antarctica is thinning four times faster than it was 10 years ago, according to research seen by the BBC.

A study of satellite measurements of Pine Island glacier in west Antarctica reveals the surface of the ice is now dropping at a rate of up to 16m a year.

Since 1994, the glacier has lowered by as much as 90m, which has serious implications for sea-level rise.
[...]
Calculations based on the rate of melting 15 years ago had suggested the glacier would last for 600 years. But the new data points to a lifespan for the vast ice stream of only another 100 years.


Im Grunde genommen nichts Neues: ein großer Gletscher in der Antarktis schmilzt. Kennt man ja...

Und daß er (siehe URL) 3cm zum Meeresspiegel beitragen wird, und das Eis hinter ihm noch mal 20 bis 30cm, ist auch nicht _so_ neu.

Zitat von Aber:"This is unprecedented in this area of Antarctica. We've known that it's been out of balance for some time, but nothing in the natural world is lost at an accelerating exponential rate like this glacier."

dieser Gletscher hält sich nicht an die Vorhersagen, er wagt es schneller zu schmelzen (und insbesondere hat er die Frechheit, nicht linear, sondern exponentiell zu schmelzen).

Zitat von Und:Professor Box told BBC News: "The science community has been surprised by how sensitive these large glaciers are to climate warming. First it was the glaciers in south Greenland and now as we move further north in Greenland we find retreat at major glaciers. It's like removing a cork from a bottle."

anderswo (Arktis) sieht es ähnlich aus.

http://global-warming.accuweather.com/2009/08/second_warmest_july_on_record.html
Zitat:NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) has determined that July of 2009 was the second warmest July globally, since records were kept going back well over a hundred years.

The global land-ocean temperature anomaly for July 2009 was +.60 Celsius or +1.08 F. Only July of 1998 (a strong el nino year) was warmer.

The image below shows the July 2009 anomalies across the globe (warm is red, cool is blue). Clearly the reds and oranges far outweigh the blues on this map.

Abweichung von Durchschnittstemperatur, Juli 2009.


Die restlichen Graphiken auf der Seite lohnen sich auch. Sie zeigen, daß sich die Pole durchaus stärker erwärmen als der Rest.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/06/news/economy/detroit_food/?postversion=2009080712
Zitat:In this recession-racked town, the lack of food is a serious problem. It's a theme that comes up again and again in conversations in Detroit. There isn't a single major non-discount chain supermarket in the city, forcing residents to buy food from corner stores or discount chains. Often less healthy, less varied, or more expensive food.

Zitat:But the food crunch is intensifying, and spreading to people not used to dealing with hunger. As middle class workers lose their jobs, the same folks that used to donate to soup kitchens and pantries have become their fastest growing set of recipients.

"We've seen about a third more people than before," said Jean Hagopian, a volunteer at the New Life food pantry, part of the New Life Assembly of God church in Roseville, a suburb some 20 miles northeast of Detroit.


Zitat:Across metro Detroit, social service agencies are reporting a huge spike in demand for food assistance.

Gleaners, an agency that distributes excess food donated from food processors, says their distribution is up 18% from last year. Michigan Department of Human Services, which handles federal food assistance like food stamps, WIC checks and such, has seen a 14% spike in applications since October. Calls to the United Way's help line have tripled in the last year.


Zitat:There have been plenty of people struggling in Detroit for a long time. What makes this recession different is the type of people coming in. It's no longer just the homeless, or the really poor.

Now it's middle class folks who lost their $60,000-a-year auto job, or home owners who got caught on the wrong side of the real estate bubble.


http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/the-wildebeest-river-is-running-dry-1769959.html
Zitat:The animals' stampede through the Mara river is one of nature's most spectacular events. But now the watercourse is drying up, a sign of the damage being done to Africa's fragile eco-system
[...]
But this year there is something missing – the water. "This is the first year we've ever seen the river this low," says Will Deed, who works with the Mara Conservancy, a not-for-profit group which manages one third of this huge reserve.

"In parts there's just small channel, one or one-and-a-half feet deep." In the same stretches of the river last year the water was as deep as five feet and "the wildebeest and zebra were up to their chests or necks, or even swimming," he adds.


Bild: Fluß Mara trocken


Ich weiß aber nicht, in wieweit das nur ein vorübergehendes Phänomen war - im Forum sind gerade ein paar anders aussehende Bilder gewesen. Z.b. dieses:



Angriff beim Mara River Crossing


http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/new-el-ni241o-threatens-world-with-weather-woe-1766555.html
Zitat:A new El Niño has begun. The sporadic Pacific Ocean warming, which can disrupt weather patterns across the world, is intensifying, say meteorologists.

So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record.
[...]
At present, forecasters do not expect this El Niño to equal that of 1998, but it may be the second-strongest, and concerned groups, from international insurance companies to commodity traders, to aid agencies such as Oxfam, have begun to follow its progress anxiously. Its potential for economic and social impact is considerable.
[...]
El Niño is a periodic warming of the normally cold waters of the eastern tropical Pacific, the ocean region westwards out from South America along the line of the equator. Since the Pacific is a heat reservoir which drives wind patterns around the world, the change in its temperature alters global weather. An El Niño is defined by ocean surface temperatures rising by more than 0.5C above the average.

This El Niño is well beyond that, says the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service. "Sea surface temperatures remain +0.5 to +1.5 above average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean," the centre reported last week. "Observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through the northern hemisphere winter of 2009-10."

The last El Niño was in 2006-07 and, at its peak, sea surface temperatures averaged about 0.9 degrees above normal. But this is a stage which has already been reached by this one.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090729/sc_afp/climatewarmingarcticcarbon_20090729180716
Zitat:Climate change is speeding up the release of carbon dioxide from frigid peatlands in the sub-Arctic, fuelling a vicious circle of global warming, according to a study to be published Thursday.

An increase of just 1.0 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) over current average temperatures would more than double the CO2 escaping from the peatlands.

Northern peatlands contain one-third of the planet's soil-bound organic carbon, the equivalent of half of all the CO2 in the atmosphere.

Peat is an accumulation of partially decayed vegetation found in wetlands or peatlands, which cover between two and three percent of the global land mass. While present in all climate zones, the vast majority of peatlands are found in sub-Arctic regions.

A team of European researchers led by Ellen Dorrepaal of the University of Amsterdam artificially warmed natural peatlands in Abisko, in northern Sweden, by 1.0 C over a period of eight years.

The experimental plots exhaled and extra 60 percent of CO2 in Spring and 52 percent in Summer over the entire period, reported the study, published in the British journal Nature.


Bis 2050 prognostiziert sind übrigens 2°, nicht ein lausiges Grad.

Anders gesagt: es wird dringend Zeit für eine andere Aufbewahrung des CO2s - der Torf mag nicht mehr...


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8188409.stm
Im Grunde genommen ist meine Reaktion "ach nee?", aber schön, daß das mal jemand sagt:
Zitat:The use of geo-engineering to slow global warming may increase the risk of drought, according to a paper in Science journal.

Methods put forward include reflecting solar radiation back into space using giant mirrors or aerosol particles.

But the authors warn that such attempts to control the climate could also cause major changes in precipitation.

They want the effect on rainfall to be assessed before any action is taken.

Gabriele Hegerl of the Grant Institute at University of Edinburgh and Susan Solomon of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at Boulder, Colorado, write that "if geo-engineering studies focus too heavily on warming, critical risks associated with such possible "cures" will not be evaluated appropriately".


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8188166.stm
Zitat:A study in the journal Science shows that extinctions tend to "cluster" on evolutionary lineages - wiping out species with a common ancestor.

The finding is based on an examination of past extinctions, but could help current conservation efforts.

Researchers say that this phenomenon can result in the loss of an entire branch of the "tree of life".


Auch das rechtfertigt ein "Ach nee?", denn wer hätte schon gedacht, daß verwandte Arten verwandte Verwundbarkeiten haben könnten? Aber vielleicht bringt das irgendwen zum Nachdenken, wenn genug Menschenaffen ausgestorben sind...

Die 4 Stadien einer typischen Bärenmarktrally]


Dies muß aber keine typische Bärenmarktrally sein...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6035300/Theres-no-quick-fix-to-the-global-economys-excess-capacity.html
Zitat:Excess plant will hang over us like an oppressive fog until cleared by liquidation, or incomes slowly catch up, or both. Until this occurs, we risk lurching from one false dawn to another, endlessly disappointed.

Justin Lin, the World Bank’s chief economist, warned last month that half-empty factories risk setting off a “deflationary spiral”. We are moving into a phase where the “real economy crisis” bites deeper – meaning mass lay-offs and drastic falls in investment as firms retrench. “Unless we deal with excess capacity, it will wreak havoc on all countries,” he said.

Mr Lin said capacity use had fallen to 72pc in Germany, 69pc in the US, 65pc in Japan, and near 50pc in some poorer countries. These are post-War lows. Fresh data from the Federal Reserve is actually worse. Capacity use in US manufacturing fell to 65.4pc in July.


Da kann man dann wohl auf eine Pleitewelle gigantischem Ausmaßes wetten.

http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/08/eurozone-gdp-upside-surprise.html

Eurozone, BIP im 2. Quartal


Bulgarien, Tschechei, Dänemark, Irland, Spanien, Luxemburg, Malta, Polen, Slowenien fehlen.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/04/65156/the-debt-inflation-myth-debunked-by-ubs/
Zitat von UBS economist Paul Donovan:The problem with the idea of governments inflating their way out of a debt burden is that it does not work. Absent episodes of hyper-inflation, it is a strategy that has never worked. Government debt: GDP burdens tend to be positively correlated with inflation. Market mythology has created the idea that inflation will help reduce government debt ratios. The facts do not support the myth. OECD government debt rises as inflation rises. Meaningful reductions in government debt will require a low inflation future.

Die Idee, daß Regierungen ihren Weg aus der Verschuldung mit herausinflationieren können, ist laut UBS falsch - jedenfalls Inflation kleiner als Hyperinflation.

UBS chart of inflation vs change in government debt (as % of GDP)
Die Graphik zeigt die Entwicklung der Staatsverschuldung (in % des BIP) nach Inflation.

Warum? Weil der Staat zwar inflationieren kann, aber eben auch eine Menge Altschulden rollen muß, und für die dann auch einen zusätzlichen Inflationszins zahlen muß.

Zitat:The higher debt service cost becomes a problem for a government that is pursuing an inflation strategy because government debt does have to be rolled over. Unless a government is willing to pursue hyper-inflation as a strategy, raising inflation will not reduce the government debt burden. Indeed, history indicates that the reverse result will be achieved.

Das heißt aber natürlich auch, daß von den vier möglichen Wegen zur Staatsentschuldung, nämlich Inflation, Hyperinflation, Währungsreform und Staatsbankrott, der Mildeste nicht gangbar ist (der theoretische Fünfte - nämlich vernünftiges wirtschaften - ist ja leider nur theoretisch).

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=125471&d=14&m=8&y=2009
Direkt aus Tausend und einer Nacht berichtet uns Arabnews:
Zitat:In recent weeks the Saudi crude production capacity — as per the earlier pronouncements — and despite skepticism of some — touched the 12 million barrels a day mark. This was achieved by carrying out developments at three of its oil fields and extends Saudi spare capacity to almost 4 million bpd. Indeed this was done at a cost — but indeed should go a long way in soothing the nerves of the otherwise jittery market.

In welchem Paralleluniversum produziert ihr denn so viel?

Zitat:In the meantime, it is also a known that Saudi Aramco wants to improve its oil recovery rate to 70 percent from 50 percent over the next 20 years by focusing on enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques and other new technologies.

Ja, ich möchte auch so vieles. Manchmal 6 unmögliche Dinge vor dem Frühstück. Ok, falsches Märchen.

Zitat:The OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin (ASB) for 2008 released recently now claims that proven oil reserves of the group has gone up by more than 75 billion barrels in 2007 to reach 1.02 trillion barrels in 2008. The main source of the increase is Venezuela increasing its reserves to 172 billion barrels, a rise of about 73 billion barrels over 2007, the ASB said.

wenn man im Jahr nur so rund 30 Mrd. Barrel Öl verbraucht, aber 75 Mrd. findet, reicht das Öl für die Ewigkeit, bis zum Ende des Universums. Wenn. Und wenn man überhaupt welches gefunden hat.

Zitat:
Venezuela claims that at “$50 a barrel, a portion of the Orinoco tar sands becomes commercially viable; enough to bring the country’s proven reserves up to 312 billion barrels”.

Kinder, das Orinoco-Gebiet kann man nicht so relativ straflos in eine Mondlandschaft verwandeln wie es die Kanadier mit ihren Ölsand-Gebieten tun (und auch da bin ich mal auf die Gesamtbilanz gespannt). Der Orinoco ist eure Wasserversorgung.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html
Eine positive Nachricht: Die IEA kann zugeben, daß sie Fehler gemacht hat.
Zitat von Eine schlechte: die neue Prognose sieht schlechter aus:The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong.

6.7% versus 3.7% ist eine ganze Menge.

Zitat von Und ganz korrekt stellt die IEA fast, dass die Marktmacht der Produzentenländer eher wächst:"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future," he said.

Zitat von Peak Oil?:In its first-ever assessment of the world's major oil fields, the IEA concluded that the global energy system was at a crossroads and that consumption of oil was "patently unsustainable", with expected demand far outstripping supply.

Oil production has already peaked in non-Opec countries and the era of cheap oil has come to an end, it warned.


Hey, das böse Wort "Peak", das offizielle Stellen im Zusammenhang mit Öl bisher nicht kannten...
Daß das jetzt gebraucht wird heißt wohl, daß es demnächst lichterloh brennt, äh, dunkel und kalt wird (bei den Ärmeren jedenfalls).

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSN0740835120090807?sp=true
Zitat:The amount of crude oil being stored at sea has risen sharply over the last two weeks, particularly in the U.S. Gulf, due to a price incentive for oil companies to hold stocks on board vessels, traders and analysts said on Friday.

Several industry sources estimated that there were 70 million barrels of oil being stored at sea. While the estimates vary from around 60 million to 100 million barrels, most sources agree offshore storage levels rose by around 10 million barrels in the last two weeks alone.


Irgendwie gefällt mir der Gedanke ja nicht, daß das Öl ausgerechnet im Hurricane-Gebiet in Tankern gelagert wird...

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,grossbild-1623479-641513,00.html
Der Spiegel hat eine wunderschöne Graphik über die Charterraten für Containerschiffe:
Containerschiffs-Charterraten
Zitat:In 2008, roughly 500 million standard containers (TEU) were transported on the world's oceans -- twice as many as at the turn of the millennium.
Year after year, new and ever more massive ships were built, ports were expanded and new scheduled service introduced. The cargo capacity of the world's combined container fleet increased from 4 million TEUs in 2000 to 12.5 million today.

2000: 4 Mio. TEU Transportkapazität Weltweit.
2009: 12.5 Mio.

2008: 500 Mio. TEU transportiert.
2000: rund die Hälfte.

Eine der beiden Zahlen hat sich von 2000 auf 2008 verdoppelt - die andere verdreifacht. Die Überkapazität war also bereits vor Ausbruch der Krise da...

Und wo wird das Problem wohl am meisten weh tun? In China? Den USA? Den Niederlanden? Japan? Singapur? Nein...

Zitat:Germans own 35 percent of the container ships in operation worldwide, and close to 60 shipping banks and financiers are headquartered in Hamburg. Hamburg-based Hapag-Lloyd became one of the world's leading shipping line operators.
[... viel weiter unten ...]
Roughly 1,644 of the 4,619 container ships worldwide are German-owned.

Deutschland und dort insbesondere Hamburg.

Zitat:Shipping line operators alone are expected to suffer combined losses of $20 billion in 2009.

Davon fallen dann 7 Mrd in Deutschland an. Hm...

Aber Vorsicht mit dem Mitleid - das scheint doch nicht hundertprozentig angebracht:

Zitat:Shipping companies currently receive only about $500 to ship one container from Asia to Europe -- about $300 less than they need to cover their costs. A year ago, shipping companies were still collecting more than $1,500 per container.

Vor einem Jahr noch hätten satte Gewinne von $700 pro Container anfallen sollen, die eigentlich locker ausreichen müßten, $300 Verlust pro Container für eine Weile abzufedern.
Wenn man das Geld denn noch hätte, klar.

Und ein Abschnitt zur HSH Nordbank aka Nordbundesland-Mordbank:

Zitat:HSH Nordbank, the world's largest shipping lender, has outstanding ship construction loans worth €33 billion on its books. The bankers are seeking to allay concerns. "We already increased the equity ratio we require from shipping companies seeking financing 18 to 24 months ago," says Harald Kuznik, the head of the ship financing division at HSH Nordbank. The bank has also increased its risk reserves twentyfold -- from 0.05 percent to 1 percent of credit volume.

33 Mrd. Schiffsbaukredite ausstehend, Risikovorsorge nun 330 Mio. Das ist immerhin viel besser als vorher, aber immer noch rund 3 Mrd. zu niedrig...

Zur Zukunft:

Zitat:A Glut of New Ships

But the real problems are still ahead for German shipping companies. The 1,550 new ships that were on order in mid-2008 are to be delivered in the next few years. The major Asian shipyards are unwilling to accept cancellations.

Some ship financiers have already decided to forfeit down payments already paid to the shipyards, which can amount to up to 40 percent of the total price, because they lack the additional millions needed to take delivery of the ships on order. Most others are trying to negotiate with the shipyards to at least delay construction, in the hope that the situation will improve significantly in a few years.

The orders for new container ships now on the shipyards' books represent a total capacity of 5.3 million TEUs, or about 50 percent more than current worldwide container fleet capacity. Even if global trade recovers by next year, this glut of new ships will create enough excess capacity to depress shipping prices.
[... viel weiter unten ...]
Lucien Wong, the chairman of the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, reported in April that roughly 450 container ships are now idle worldwide -- about 10 percent of the global fleet.


Wollen wir mal festhalten: rund 10% der weltweiten Containerschiffe sind derzeit mangels Nachfrage stillgelegt. Gleichzeitig kommen in den nächsten paar Jahren mehr als 50% der noch in Betrieb befindlichen Kapazität hinzu.

Welche Auswirkungen könnte das, nach dem Gesetz von Angebot und Nachfrage, wohl haben? Steigende Frachtraten, vielleicht?


http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article185798.ece
Zitat:Gas transit from Central Asia and Russia through Ukraine towards Europe fell 37.1% in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period a year ago.

The State Statistics Committee did not give figures for the volume of gas transported through Ukrainian territory but according to last year's statistics, 74 billion cubic metres of gas was sent through Ukraine.

In the full year of 2008, some 120 billion cubic metres of gas was transited through Ukraine. Russia sends 80% of its gas exports to Europe through its southern neighbour.


Hm, müßten nach einem relativ harten Winter nicht einige Reserven wieder aufgefüllt werden? Verstehe ich da irgendetwas falsch?

Zitat:Europe and the former Soviet region have slashed their gas consumption this year as the global economic crisis hits their industries and production slows, reported Reuters.

Aber das kann nicht 37% ausmachen - oder? Die Heizungen waren doch eher stärker gefordert als in 2008.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d11ae554-88fd-11de-b50f-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:China’s carbon emissions will start falling by 2050, its top climate change policymaker said, the first time the world’s largest emitter has given such a time-frame.

2050.

http://www.ftd.de/politik/international/:China-Im-Reich-der-Sch%F6nrechner/549825.html
Der Zweifel wird Mainstreamthema...
Zitat:Das von den chinesischen Provinzbehörden angegebene Bruttoinlandsprodukt übersteigt den von der Zentralregierung veröffentlichten Wert deutlich. Addiert man die Angaben der 31 Provinzen und Stadtverwaltungen für das erste Halbjahr, ergibt sich ein BIP von 15.376 Mrd. Yuan (1564 Mrd. Euro) . Das nationale Statistikamt hingegen meldete 13.986 Mrd. Yuan (1422 Mrd. Euro) .

Auf 7,1 Prozent beläuft sich laut Statistikamt das BIP-Wachstum, doch bis auf sieben Provinzen meldeten alle Regionen höhere Werte.


übrigens beträgt der Unterschied zwischen den beiden Milliardenzahlen ziemlich genau 10%. Das beschreibt die Unsicherheit der chinesischen Wirtschaftszahlen schon recht gut: zwischen 8% Wachstum und -2% Wachstum ist alles drin.

Aus irgendeinem Grund erfüllt mich das nicht mit großer Zuversicht für China.

Zitat:So meldete die "Global Times", die Öffentlichkeit habe mit "Scherzen und Sarkasmus" auf Zahlen des Statistikamts reagiert, denen zufolge im ersten Halbjahr in Chinas Städten das Durchschnittsgehalt um 13 Prozent auf umgerechnet 2142 $ gestiegen sei. Bei einer Onlineumfrage gaben 88 Prozent der Teilnehmer Zweifel an der Genauigkeit zu Protokoll. Die staatliche Zeitung "China Daily" zitierte aus einer Umfrage, in der sogar 91 Prozent an Regierungszahlen zweifeln.

Also, 13% ist durchaus glaubhaft. Die ganzen billigen Jobs fallen weg, und die gut bezahlten Jobs in Regierung und KP fallen mehr ins Gewicht Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

http://www.aei.org/docLib/08-EO-Aug-2009g.pdf
Eines meiner Lieblingsthemen in der letzten Zeit ist China. Und zwar nicht etwa wegen gehobenem Interesse an China, und noch nicht mal wegen China selbst - was mich richtiggehend fasziniert ist die Bereitschaft der Welt, die chinesischen Zahlen und Behauptungen zu glauben. Ich meine, wir wissen eigentlich alle, wie sehr die Zahlen in der westlichen Welt getürkt sind - und im Grunde genommen weiß auch jeder, daß man Zahlenwerken aus Ländern, in denen eine noch geringere Bereitschaft zur Offenlegung von Zahlen und Verhältnissen herrscht, erst recht nicht trauen darf - aber aus irgendeinem Grund wird den Zahlen geglaubt.
Hm.

Zitat:
Once China had announced its 8 percent growth target, it began to disburse funds directed at a sharp increase in public works spending. It is important to understand that the disbursal of funds is recorded as GDP growth. So the government can easily control the pace of growth by the pace at which it releases funds that have already been allocated in the stimulus package to the creation of higher production or growth numbers. Funds disbursed for fixed-asset investment bx state-owned enterprises or provincial governments are counted as having been spent when they are disbursed. In fact, the funds go out to the state-owned enterprises and provincial governments and may be held until actual projects are identified and undertaken.

In Kurzform: die BIP-Zahlen Chinas werden nicht errechnet, sondern entschieden. Sobald der Staat Geld zahlt (an Staatsunternehmen überweist), wird der Betrag dem BIP angerechnet - unabhängig davon, ob und wann der Empfänger damit irgendetwas tut.

Zitat:The same convention, counting production and shipments as de facto outlays by end-users, is employed with respect to retail sales data in China. Shipments to retailers are counted as retail sales on the apparent assumption that ultimately all goods shipped will be sold at some point in the future. China’s nominal retail sales have been rising at a rate of about 15 percent year-over-year during the first half of 2009 because that is the rate at which shipments to retailers have been occurring. There is very little direct data available to measure actual sales by recipients of the retail shipments to ultimate consumers.

Und so sieht das beim Konsum-Anteil des BIPs aus: der errechnet sich nicht aus den Verkäufen der Händler, sondern aus deren Einkäufen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-relaxes-onechild-rule-to-beat-pension-crisis-1760714.html
Zitat:Fears that an ageing population could be left unable to support itself mean that China's biggest city and financial centre, Shanghai, is overhauling the decades-old One Child Policy and encouraging couples to have a second baby.

Many couples will be excluded from the new diktat, but if both parents were an only child, like most newly-weds in the city, they will be encouraged to conceive again, in an effort to ensure that the city's workforce is not outnumbered by its pensioners.


Ob das noch rechtzeitig kommt?

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iVUyEQJXsOKYC2ik3XDwBCTecJEg
Zitat:China Tuesday warned of a "grave" situation in the jobs market with millions of graduates and migrant workers yet to find work as companies continue to struggle with the effects of the global slump.
[...]
Wang said around 147 million migrant workers had moved to cities for jobs by June but more than four million had yet to find one.

Moreover, three million university graduates, including those who had left last year, were still unemployed, he said.

China's urban registered unemployment rate stood at 4.3 percent in the second quarter, unchanged from the first three months and up from 4.2 percent at the end of 2008, Wang said.
[...]
However, the actual jobless figure may be much bigger than the official rate, which does not include migrant workers and university graduates.


Man beachte: das ist die Arbeitslosenquote in den städtischen Regionen, und schließt Universitätsabgänger und Wanderarbeiter aus.

http://msn.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-04/110220319.html
Zitat:SMEs' H1 Electricity Use Down 50%
» First-half electricity use by small and medium-sized enterprises fell almost 50 percent year-on-year, as these companies were more exposed to the economic downturn, the National Bureau of Statistics said on August 3.
» SMEs saw power consumption plunge 48.9 percent year-on-year, against a 5.9 percent industry-wide drop.
» UBS Securities chief economist Wang Tao said SMEs were the first to be hit with falling orders when the global economy began to slide, causing them to cut output more sharply than larger enterprises.

In der ersten Jahreshälfte haben kleine und mittlere Unternehmen in Chinas 48.9% weniger Strom verbraucht als im gleichen Zeitraum des Vorjahres.
Dagegen sind insgesamt in der Industrie 5.9% weniger Strom verbraucht worden.

Da dürfte es nun eine Menge Arbeitsplätze in kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen nicht mehr geben.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aoZ1GQC.j0Hw
Zitat:China’s power demand rose 6 percent in July as the government’s stimulus spending boosted economic growth and increased industrial use of electricity.

Power consumption rose to 342 billion kilowatt-hours last month, the National Energy Administration and the China Electricity Council said separate statements today. Power demand between January and July fell 0.9 percent to 2 trillion kilowatt-hours.

Industrial production climbed 10.8 percent in July after a 10.7 percent advance in June, the statistics bureau said earlier this week. Power production expanded for the second month in July as China recovered from the economic slowdown helped by the government’s 4 trillion-yuan ($585 billion) spending, according to the statistics bureau.


Juni auf Juli: +6% = +342 Mrd. KWh.
Januar auf Juli: -0.9%.

Das wäre mal eine gute Entwicklung. Alleine, mir fehlt irgendwie der rechte Glaube.


http://www.gata.org/node/7672
GATA ist nicht wirklich eine seriöse Quelle, aber:
Zitat:Keiser's documentary may be sensational for getting an acknowledgement from the German central bank, the Bundesbank, that Germany's gold reserves are actually in the custody of the United States. This is a detail the Bundesbank long has denied to others who have inquired and is potentially a matter of great controversy in Germany. It raises the question of whether the German gold reserves are actually intact at all or whether they have been used by the U.S. government as part of its long-time gold price suppression scheme or have been comingled and diminished with the gold reserves of other countries held in the United States.

http://www.derwesten.de/nachrichten/waz/wirtschaft/2009/8/10/news-128690311/detail.html
Zitat:Die Wirtschaftskrise bescherte der wachstumsverwöhnten deutschen Hotelbranche in der ersten Jahreshälfte einen Dämpfer, weil ausländische Gäste und Geschäftsreisende wegbleiben. Erst im Juni füllten sich die Betten wieder: Urlaub im eigenen Land liegt im Trend.

Bundesweit verbuchten die Hotels und Pensionen nach Angaben des Statistischen Bundesamtes im ersten Halbjahr einen Rückgang um zwei Prozent bei den Übernachtungen. Besonders betroffen sind, so der Hotelverband Deutschland, Flughafenhotels, 5-Sternehotels und die Regionen, die vor allem Geschäftsreisende empfangen. Denn viele Firmen streichen wegen der Krise Tagungen, Kongresse, Feiern und Ausflüge.

Zwar waren die deutschen Hotels insgesamt im Juni sogar besser besucht als im Vorjahr, weil die Deutschen wieder mehr Urlaub im eigenen Land machen, etwa an der Ostsee. Aber eine Sprecherin des Hotelverbands warnt: „Wir haben noch einen sehr steinigen Weg vor uns. Selbst die beste Reisesaison kann die Ausfälle bei den Geschäftsreisen nicht ausgleichen.” Deswegen rechnet sie für die Gesamtbranche aufs Jahr gesehen mit fünf Prozent weniger Umsatz und „erhöhtem Preiswettbewerb”, wenn auch nicht mit einem Preiskrieg.


Zitat:„NRW ist mit seinen Geschäftszentren, Banken und seiner Industrie eher ein Ziel für Geschäftsreisende als für Urlauber”, sagt der Sprecher des Dehoga in NRW. Deswegen blieben hier im ersten Halbjahr mehr Zimmer leer als in vielen anderen Bundesländern. Die Auslastung sank um mehr als zehn Prozent (Bund: 7,3 Prozent), in Düsseldorf und Essen sogar um fast fünfzehn. Der Sprecher: „2008 war wegen vieler Messen ein Jahr mit Maximalauslastung, jetzt haben wir das Gegenteil plus Wirtschaftskrise und die Schweinegrippe.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/5949155/Plague-strikes-French-oysters.html
Zitat von Austernsterben in Frankreich:Scientists have yet properly to determine what has caused up to 90 per cent of baby and juvenile oysters, due to be eaten by Christmas 2010, to have died.
[...]
The deaths have come in two waves. The first, in May, hit the Mediterranean - including Corsica and the Etang de Thau, a salt-water lake near Montpellier – and also the west coast in the bay of Arcachon. The second struck oyster farmers all the way as far as Normandy.

Zitat von Und letztes Jahr war es anders, aber nicht besser:Last year, France's oyster industry – Europe's largest – was hit by its worst crisis since the native European or "Portuguese" oyster was all but wiped out 30 years ago. Since then almost all oyster farms in Europe have been restocked with the Pacific "creuse" oyster from Japan and British Columbia.

"This year is different, as it has come in two waves," said Sebastien Chantereau, from the national shellfish producers' body, the Comité National de la Conchyliculture. "Although each was less violent than the one that struck last July, together the damage is roughly the same. If we have one more wave between now and September it will be a total catastrophe," he told the Daily Telegraph.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8197287.stm
Zitat:Parts of India are on track for severe water shortages, according to results from Nasa's gravity satellites.
The Grace mission discovered that in the country's north-west - including Delhi - the water table is falling by about 4cm (1.6 inches) per year.
Writing in the journal Nature, they say rainfall has not changed, and water use is too high, mainly for farming.

Zitat:About a quarter of India is experiencing drought conditions, as the monsoon rains have been weaker and later than usual.
But weather and climatic factors are not responsible for water depletion in the northwestern states of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab, according to the Nasa study.
"We looked at the rainfall record and during this decade, it's relatively steady - there have been some up and down years but generally there's no drought situation, there's no major trend in rainfall," said Matt Rodell, a hydrologist at Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center near Washington DC.
"So naturally we would expect the groundwater level to stay where it is unless there is an excessive stress due to people pumping too much water, which is what we believe is happening."


Zitat:"Over the six-year timeframe of this study, about 109 cubic kilometres of water were depleted from this region - more than double the capacity of India's largest reservoir is gone between 2002 and 2008," Dr Rodell told the BBC.
The northwest of India is heavily irrigated; and the Indian government's State of the Environment report, published on Tuesday, noted that irrigation increased rice yields seven-fold in some regions compared to rain-fed fields.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8196861.stm
Zitat:The State of the Environment report says that at least 45% of India's land area is "degraded due to erosion, soil acidity, alkalinity and salinity, water logging and wind erosion".

It blames deforestation, over grazing, forest fires and the indiscriminate use of agro-chemicals.

The report also warns of a potential water crisis in the country, pointing out that in the past, a combination of rainfall and surface and groundwater supplies were sufficient for the population.

But now it says that rainfall has become more erratic, groundwater supplies are becoming more depleted and surface water is becoming more polluted.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/16de2e94-7d22-11de-b8ee-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss&nclick_check=1
Zitat:India has plans to add about 100 warships to its navy over the next decade as it seeks to modernise its armed forces, and develop its low-cost shipbuilding capabilities.

Captain Alok Bhatnagar, director of naval plans at India’s ministry of defence, said on Thursday that 32 warships and submarines were under construction in the country’s shipyards. Work on 75 more ships, including aircraft carriers, destroyers, frigates and amphibious vessels, would begin over 10 years.


Ohne Worte.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iraq-dust30-2009jul30,0,3137832.story
Zitat:Decades of war and mismanagement, compounded by two years of drought, are wreaking havoc on Iraq's ecosystem, drying up riverbeds and marshes, turning arable land into desert, killing trees and plants, and generally transforming what was once the region's most fertile area into a wasteland.

Falling agricultural production means that Iraq, once a food exporter, will this year have to import nearly 80% of its food, spending money that is urgently needed for reconstruction projects.
[...]
This summer and last have seen more than twice as many dusty days as the previous four, he said. And 35% of the time, dust is reducing visibility to less than three miles, the point at which it is normally considered unsafe to fly. On many of those days, visibility was zero, delaying flights, disrupting military operations and sending thousands of people to hospitals with breathing problems.

"The lack of available water is a huge issue and it's having a huge effect on Iraqi society," said Silverman, social science advisor for strategic communications with the Army's Human Terrain System, a program that links social scientists and anthropologists with combat brigades. He emphasized that he was not speaking on behalf of the military.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8196812.stm
Zitat:Japanese wholesale prices were down by a record 8.5% in July compared with a year earlier, highlighting the growing deflationary pressure in the economy.

Weak demand during the downturn and the fall in the price of oil have put downward pressure on prices.
[...]
Recent data showed consumer prices had fallen by a record 1.7% in the year to the end of June.


http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/08/global-demand-freefall-waning-japanese.html

Japanische Exporte nach USA und China

http://www.google.com/hostedne [verkürzt] ERLcfGYFHR3q1grHfn_kAD99K2JSG2

Zitat:Japan's exports in June fell by the smallest margin in six months, adding to evidence that global demand is recovering as the recession loosens its grip.

Hach, dieser Optimismus... "so wenig gefallen sind die japanischen Exporte schon seit 6 Monaten nicht mehr".

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/caisse-de-depot-takes-57-billion-hit/article1248307/
Zitat:The troubled Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, still reeling from a disastrous 2008, failed to find its footing the first half of this year, as risky commercial real estate loans and private equity investments led to more than $5-billion in writedowns at the provincial pension fund manager.

The Caisse took the unprecedented move of announcing interim financial results Tuesday – indicating that an overall writedown of $5.7-billion on real estate and other investments completely wiped out gains on stocks in the first half of the year – in part to quell growing rumours about trouble in its property portfolio.

The Caisse, which manages the assets of 25 provincial funds including the Quebec Pension Plan, was stung by criticism last fall that it was too secretive, when it continuously rejected calls to reveal the extent of the damage it suffered as a result of October's stock market meltdown.
[...]
The Caisse was badly bruised in 2008 by its oversized position in currency and futures contracts and third-party asset-backed commercial paper holdings, posting a $40-billion loss last year, equal to a return of minus 25 per cent.
[...]
The writedowns this year erased the 5-per-cent return that the Caisse had earned on other investments to June 30, leaving it with “neutral” overall performance, Mr. Sabia said. “No one here thinks that neutral returns is what we should be aiming for,” he told reporters on a conference call. “There's a lot of work to do in repositioning the Caisse and changing our strategies, and we're going to continue to do that.”


Die Abschreibungen (im Wesentlichen auf Immobilien) in Höhe von 5.7 Mrd. Dollar (kanadische, vermute ich) haben die ganzen sonstigen Gewinne des ersten Halbjahres ausgeglichen.

Interessant, daß zwei Jahre nach Beginn der Krise der Manager von 25 kanadischen Fonds immer noch massiv in Sachen investiert ist, die einen hohen Abschreibungsbedarf haben. Ob das Zeug ist, das zwei Jahre lang niemand haben wollte? Also ganz wertlos ist?


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=al8yFTQFlI0Q
Zitat:“The nation is in a serious water, food and energy crisis,” Prime Minister Raila Odinga said in Parliament in Nairobi today, according to an e-mailed copy of his speech. “Thirst combined with hunger is taking a heavy toll on the lives and health of our people.”

Kenya’s corn production may fall 65 percent below consumption this year, putting 10 million Kenyans at risk of hunger or food insecurity, said Odinga.

Zitat:Armed forces and police officers will be deployed in 11 districts, which are facing imminent humanitarian disasters, to deliver emergency rations of food, water and medicine for up to three months, he said.

Drought has cut hydropower generation by 46 percent, leading to the start of scheduled power-rationing last week as generation dropped to 900 megawatts. This is 200 megawatts below peak demand, he said.

Kenya will maintain load-shedding until at least mid- October when 222 megawatts of new generating capacity will be added to the grid and the short rains start, he said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a8U0aGhDyw68
Zitat:Latvia’s economy shrank an annual 19.6 percent last quarter, the European Union’s second-steepest output slump after neighboring Lithuania, as manufacturing and retail sales plunged.

The contraction, the worst since quarterly records began in the Baltic nation in 1995, gathered pace after gross domestic product shrank 18 percent in the first quarter, the central statistics office in Riga said today, citing preliminary figures. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of eight economists was for a 22 percent decline. The final report will be released on Sept. 8.

“The steepest decline is behind us,” said Andris Vilks at SEB AB’s Latvian unit, who had estimated an 18 percent contraction for the second quarter. “The third and fourth quarters may see a decline of about 12 percent to 15 percent.”


Q1: -18%
Q2: -19.6%
Vorhersage Q3+4: -12% bis -15%

Aua.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=ajZkOJvyO.EM
Zitat:Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico’s state- run oil company, needs oil to average above $70 a barrel to sustain a $19.5 billion investment plan this year aimed at developing deep-sea wells, Energy Minister Georgina Kessel said.
[...]
Latin America’s largest oil producer plans to spend a record amount this year and $20 billion annually next year through 2012 to fund exploration in waters deeper than 500 meters (1,640 feet) and at its Chicontepec development. Output is slumping as production at Cantarell, the company’s largest field, drops at a rate twice as fast as Pemex forecast after last year falling the most since 1942.

"to fund exploration" ist nur leider nicht gleichbedeutend damit, daß sich die Exploration auch auszahlt.

http://www.petroleumworld.com/story09081409.htm
Zitat:Mexico's state oil company Pemex recently revised its 2009 production forecast down to 2.65 million b/d from 2.75 million b/d, but the company's forecasts are usually taken with a grain of salt given its repeated inability to meet its own predicted production levels. According to BNamericas, analysts believe the drop could be even more severe.

National production averaged 2.59 million b/d in the second quarter of the year and 2.67 million b/d in the first quarter.
[...]
Even before Pemex revised its outlook to 2.65 million b/d for 2009, consultancy IPD Latin America was expecting the company to be producing less than 2.5 million b/d going into next year, managing director John Padilla told BNamericas.

George Baker, director of Houston-based consultancy Baker & Associates, said Pemex would be following statistical trends if it finished the year with production of 2.5 million b/d.


Naja, wenn schon die Opec Märchen erzählt, darf Mexiko das doch auch, oder?

http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/11/mexico-oil-theft-business-energy-drugs.html
Zitat:Smuggling billions of dollars worth of narcotics across the Rio Grande apparently isn't enough for Mexican cartels. In recent years, they have expanded their activities in kidnapping, extortion, people smuggling and, of all things, petroleum siphoning.

The Mexican state-owned oil monopoly Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, estimates some $720 million worth of oil products were stolen from it in 2008, slightly higher than 2007. The robberies have sapped the oil behemoth--the second-largest exporter to the U.S.--for years. But the number of discovered clandestine taps into national pipelines has steadily climbed in recent years, adding to frustrations over falling production at its prize field Cantarell.


Ich halte eine enge Verbindung von Öl und Kriminalität für überhaupt nicht überraschend - insbesondere in Anbetracht der Gewinne der Ölunternehmen...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOSBW1cN6CjE
An und für sich nichts Besonders: Polen verkauft Anteile an Staatsunternehmen, um den Staatshaushalt nicht ganz so schnell zu ruinieren.
Zitat:Poland’s Cabinet approved a plan to sell stakes in state-owned companies including KGHM Polska Miedz SA and Grupa Lotos SA in an effort to finance its budget deficit after tax revenue slumped and public debt soared.

“The plan acknowledges the need to speed up privatization,” said Prime Minister Donald Tusk at a press conference in Warsaw today. The budget “requires a cash injection to cover basic spending.”

Aber die Begründung ist interessant:

Zitat:President Lech Kaczynski has said he would veto any attempt to raise taxes as a way of increasing budget revenue, while his twin brother and leader of the main opposition party, Jaroslaw, has ruled out cooperating on measures to augment revenue.
[...]
“The legislative route is virtually impossible for the government, so privatization is the only way out,” Gomulka said by phone. “Union protests have been a big factor in the lack of privatization in recent years -- but the situation has got so bad now this constraint might have been lifted.”

Wer regiert da eigentlich? Der noch nicht abgesägte Kaczynski mit dem schon Abgesägten?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/6011832/Russias-economy-contracts-11pc-as-Putin-model-hits-dead-end.html
Zitat:Russia's economy shrank at an annual rate of 11pc in the second quarter and has yet to show any signs of durable recovery, despite the rebound in the price of oil.

President Dmitry Medvedev blamed the country's reliance on energy and commodity exports, saying the economy "crumbled" as the global crisis hit.

"We can't develop like this any further. It's a dead end," he told party leaders. "We're hovering in place, and the crisis brought this home. We will have to make decisions on changing the structure of the economy. Otherwise our economy has no future. The situation is outrageous and has been for a long time. We continue to ship raw timber for export, and processing isn't being developed."

The slump has played havoc with state finances. The Kremlin's war chest is vanishing fast as the budget deficit rises to 9.4pc this year. While there are still funds to cover $80bn (£48bn) of stimulus measures, the picture could turn ugly if there is a second leg to the global downturn. The World Bank says unemployment may reach 13pc this year as household spending "collapses".


Nein, auch in Rußland sind die Aussichten nicht gut.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/business/global/15iht-euro.html?_r=1
Zitat:The Spanish economy contracted sharply in the second quarter, official data showed Friday, confirming that a nascent recovery in Germany and France has yet to percolate throughout the euro area.

Gross domestic product declined 1 percent from the previous quarter, when it shrank 1.9 percent, the Madrid-based National Statistics Institute said in a preliminary estimate. From a year earlier, G.D.P. contracted 4.1 percent.

The statistics stood in contrast to data Thursday showing stronger-than-expected performances by the French and German economies, each of which grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the first quarter.


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6793174.ece
Arbeitslosigkeit in .UK
Zitat:Nearly one million young people are out of work as British unemployment hits a 14-year high, new figures showed today.

Official data revealed that youth unemployment has soared, with more than 700,000 18 to 24-year-olds and 206,000 16 to 17-year-olds jobless.

In the three months to June, the number of 16 to 17-year-olds in work dropped to only 28.6 per cent, from 34 per cent a year earlier. The employment rate for people aged 18 to 24 dropped to 59.8 per cent, from 64.1 per cent.

The figures formed part of what economists described as a "ghastly" set of employment data, which showed that the jobless total had hit a 14-year high of 2.44 million and that the jobless rate had reached a 13-year-high of 7.8 per cent.
[...]
The number employed fell by a record 271,000.
[...]
"Even if the economy does return to growth in the third quarter, we suspect unemployment will rise for the rest of this year and much, if not all, of 2010."


Europas neues Armenhaus.

http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14167834
Ich bin mir nicht sicher, in wieweit ich dem Artikel glauben soll, aber...
Zitat:IN THE frigid opening days of 2009, Britain’s electricity demand peaked at 59 gigawatts (GW). Just over 45% of that came from power plants fuelled by gas from the North Sea. A further 35% or so came from coal, less than 15% from nuclear power and the rest from a hotch-potch of other sources. By 2015, assuming that modest economic growth resumes, a reasonable guess is that Britain will need around 64GW to cope with similar conditions. Where will that come from?

North Sea gas has served Britain well, but supply peaked in 1999. Since then the flow has fallen by half; by 2015 it will have dropped by two-thirds. By 2015 four of Britain’s ten nuclear stations will have shut and no new ones could be ready for years after that. As for coal, it is fiendishly dirty: Britain will be breaking just about every green promise it has ever made if it is using anything like as much as it does today. Renewable energy sources will help, but even if the wind and waves can be harnessed (and Britain has plenty of both), these on-off forces cannot easily replace more predictable gas, nuclear and coal power. There will be a shortfall—perhaps of as much as 20GW—which, if nothing radical is done, will have to be met from imported gas. A large chunk of it may come from Vladimir Putin’s deeply unreliable and corrupt Russia.


wenn das stimmt, produziert Großbritannien 26.5 Gigawatt aus Gas, und wird 2015 17.7 Gigawatt weniger aus eigenem Gas produzieren können.
=> Mehr Strom aus Kohle, mehr Gasimporte.

http://www.freep.com/article/20090807/BUSINESS01/908070382
Zitat:When General Motors Co. emerged from bankruptcy, it was freed of obligations for polluted properties at discarded plant sites that will require millions of dollars to clean up.

GM’s unusual, government-engineered bankruptcy allowed the Detroit automaker to emerge as a new company — and to shed billions in liabilities, including claims that governments had against GM for polluting.

Environmental liabilities estimated at $530 million were left with the old GM, which has only $1.2 billion to wind down.

Administrative fees and other claims will soak up that money, and state and local officials told the Free Press they fear the cleanups will be shortchanged.
[...]
GM said the issue rested with Motors Liquidation Co. — what’s left of the old GM — which declined to comment.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GMAC-Financial-posts-wider-2Q-apf-3377000851.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=8daf12bbfac3cc99af8f421da0f7747a&ccode=1
... wie gehabt:
Zitat:GMAC Inc. said Tuesday it posted a wider second-quarter loss of $3.9 billion as it shifted from being primarily an auto and mortgage loan company to an online, retail bank.

In the year-ago period, the company posted a loss of $2.48 billion.

Revenue during the quarter fell 28 percent to $1.27 billion from $1.76 billion.

The bulk of the latest quarterly loss stems from a $1.6 billion charge related to the company's mortgage business. GMAC also incurred a $1.2 billion tax charge on its conversion from a partnership, or LLC, to a privately held corporation. The company remains a preferred lender to General Motors Co.

Excluding those charges, GMAC said its second-quarter loss was about $400 million.


Inkl. aller Abschreibungen: -3.9 Mrd. Dollar
Darunter: 1,6 Mrd. Abschreibungen (Hypotheken) und 1.2 Mrd. Abschreibungen (Steuer).
Exklusive solcher Sondereffekte: 400 Mio Verlust, bei Einnahmen von 1270 Mio.

Das sind ja grundsolide Zahlen...

Aber keine Sorge, die gehen so schnell nicht pleite:

Zitat:In addition to $7.5 billion injection, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took the rare step of allowing the junk-rated company to gain access to its debt guarantee program. GMAC will be allowed to issue as much as $7.4 billion in FDIC-backed debt. The FDIC guarantees the debt that GMAC would issue in case the company defaults on payment.

Die FDIC - selbst nicht gerade reich mit Kapital gesegnet - garantiert für bis zu 7.4 Mrd. Dollar Anleihen von GMAC. Oder war's der Steuerzahlen, der den Kopf hinhält?

http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2007.pdf

Anteil der 10% Topverdiener am Gesamteinkommen


Der Anteil der oberen 10% am Einkommen der USA hat 2007 das Niveau von 1929 wohl knapp übertroffen.

Anteil der 0.01% Topverdiener am Gesamteinkommen


Und das ist der Anteil der oberen 0.01%.

http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/08/average-income-of-population.html

Durchschnittliches Wocheneinkommen versus Lohn


Durchschnittliches Wocheneinkommen in den USA, im Verhältnis zur Lohnentwicklung, inflationsbereinigt und auf die Gesamtbevölkerung bezogen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aRU6ZUwzT9iA
Wo wir gerade bei den steigenden chinesischen Löhnen waren:

Zitat:Household income in the U.S. is weakening as the influence of the government’s stimulus plan wanes, prompting economists, Federal Reserve officials and a Nobel laureate to warn that consumer spending may struggle.
[...]
Wages and salaries, which drive recoveries in spending, fell 4.7 percent in the 12 months through June, the biggest drop since records began in 1960, according to Commerce Department figures released yesterday. The Obama administration’s tax cuts, extended jobless benefits and a one-time Social Security bonus have helped mask the damage done by the worst employment slump since the Great Depression.

Personal incomes, which include interest income, dividends, rents and other payments as well as wages, tumbled 1.3 percent in June, more than forecast and the biggest drop in four years, yesterday’s Commerce report showed. Excluding the effects of the stimulus plan, June incomes would have dropped 0.1 percent after no change in May, according to the report. In May, one-time additional payments to Social Security recipients boosted incomes 1.3 percent.
[...]
The savings rate in June fell to 4.6 percent as incomes dropped, yesterday’s Commerce Department report showed. The rate, which reached a 14-year high of 6.2 percent the previous month, is likely to keep climbing, Rosenberg said. A rate as high as 15 percent can’t be ruled out, he said.


Löhne und Gehälter: -4.7% (über ein Jahr gerechnet)
Einkommen insgesamt: -1.3%.
Sparquote: gefallen.

Zitat:“This is a different consumer than we had in the past 20 years,” Rosenberg said. “People are going to increasingly be putting more money into cookie jars, rather than into buying more cookie jars.”

Ja, der amerikanische Konsument...

Gallup hat eine schöne Graphik über den Konsum:
Amerikanischer Konsum laut Gallup, Durchschnitt von 14 und 3 Tagen
31.7.2008: um die 100$
31.7.2009: um die 60$

Zitat:Gallup's consumer spending measure tracks the average dollar amount Americans report spending or charging on a daily basis, not counting the purchase of a home, motor vehicle, or normal household bills. Respondents are asked to reflect on the day prior to being surveyed and results are presented here in both a 3-day and 14-day rolling average.

Das ist als Tendenzanzeige durchaus brauchbar.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-gdp-vs-government-spending-2009-7
Zitat:Today's better-than-expected -1% GDP was tempered, somewhat, by the staggering 11% spike in Federal Government spending (hello stimulus!). Today's chart looks back at the Y/Y GDP change with the same number sans government spending. As you can see from the divergence, the government boost provides a big help.

Graphik dazu
und trotz der 11% Mehrausgaben der Regierung fällt das BIP der USA...

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/08/military-vs-non-military-durable-goods.html
Entwicklung militärischer verses nichtmilitärischer langlebiger Güter
Zitat:However, the chart is misleading in once sense. Military spending accounts for only 8% of durable goods orders. Then again, military spending was only 3% in 2000 according to the article.

Anders gesagt: Ohne gewaltige Fehlallokation von Resourcen zum Militär hin ginge es den USA-Zahlen noch schlechter...

Ob es eine kluge Idee ist, daß ein überexpandiertes Beinahe-Imperium mit gravierenden inneren Problemen noch mehr Geld in das schwarze Loch "Militärmaschinerie" steckt?


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=adBYDzUMt68k
Zitat:Almost half of U.S. homeowners with a mortgage are likely to owe more than their properties are worth before the housing recession ends, Deutsche Bank AG said.

The percentage of “underwater” loans may rise to 48 percent, or 25 million homes, as prices drop through the first quarter of 2011, Karen Weaver and Ying Shen, analysts in New York at Deutsche Bank, wrote in a report today.

As of March 31, the share of homes mortgaged for more than their value was 26 percent, or about 14 million properties, according to Deutsche Bank. Further deterioration will depress consumer spending and boost defaults by borrowers who face unemployment, divorce, disability or other financial challenges, the securitization analysts said.

“Borrowers may also ‘ruthlessly’ or strategically default even without such life events,” they wrote.


Mir scheint, bei der Deutschen Bank hat sich noch nicht herumgesprochen, daß sich die Lage stabilisiert Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/foreclosures.html
Nur für den Fall, daß meine Leserschaft glauben sollte, die Probleme auf dem US-Hausmarkt seien Geschichte:
Deliquencies and Foreclosures
Zitat:90 day delinquency rate: "everything 3 months late or more. Likely includes most all Foreclosures in Process. The categories are not separate."

Foreclosure Rate is actual foreclosures in process: "Everything with NOD and Trustee's Sale filing."

REO Rate: "Everything foreclosed but still held by bank or servicer. This category is separate from other two."

Ja, ich hab' mitbekommen daß die US-Hauspreise sich stabilisieren. Schön.
Bloß, was heißt das? Um es kurz und knapp zu sagen: Wenig.

  1. eine Schwalbe macht noch keinen Sommer.
  2. Die Hauspreise in Detroit _können_ im unteren Preissegment ($1500) nicht mehr nennenswert fallen. Nein, wirklich nicht. Ja, Detroit ist im Case-Shiller-Index enthalten. Und ja, das stabilisiert den Gesamtindex etwas - bloß nicht die anderen Städte.
  3. Steigende Arbeitslosigkeit führt ausgesprochen selten zu mehr Hauskäufen.
  4. Wenn man sich obige Graphik ansieht, könnte man auf den Gedanken kommen, daß eigentlich viel mehr Häuser im Stadium "Foreclosure" sein müßten. Richtig, dem ist auch so. Sie müßten - das wird oft deshalb nicht gemacht, um die Hauspreise nicht weiter zu destabilisieren. Aber _irgendwann_ kommen auch diese Häuser wieder auf den Markt. Und so lange hübschen sie die Statistik auf (nicht die Realität, aber die Statistik).

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE57C0M620090813?sp=true
Zitat:U.S. home loans failed at a record pace in July despite ongoing federal and state programs to avoid foreclosures, which have severely strained housing and the economy.

Foreclosure activity jumped 7 percent in July from June and 32 percent from a year earlier as one in every 355 households with a loan got a foreclosure filing, RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

Filings -- including notices of default, auction and bank repossession -- have escalated with unemployment.

"July marks the third time in the last five months where we've seen a new record set for foreclosure activity," James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac's chief executive, said in a statement.


Erst waren es Rekordpreise, jetzt sind es Rekordzwangsversteigerungen. Naja, Hauptsache Rekord...

http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/2009/08/jailhouse-diet.html
Durchschnittliche Länge der Arbeitslosigkeit (USA)
Zum einen ist das natürlich ein neuer Rekord, und ein Beweis mehr, daß der Jobmarkt in den USA längst nicht die Talsohle dieser Krisr erreicht hat.

Zum Anderen zeigt diese Graphik aber auch, daß sich die Dinge auf dem Arbeitsmarkt der USA schon lange schlechter entwickeln: Die mittlere Länge der Arbeitslosigkeit nimmt seit den späten 60ern zu.

Die restlichen Graphiken im Artikel müßten auch zur Dämpfung verfrühten Optimismus beitragen.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZKwTlyVwvxo
Das Problem der Option-ARM-Resets wird nicht so groß wie befürchtet (Re: Alles wird gut!!!51! - Hypothekenresets):
Zitat:The wave of “option” adjustable- rate mortgages recasting to higher payments, projected by some economists to represent a looming source of foreclosures that will hurt housing markets over the next few years, will be smaller than “feared” because many borrowers will default before their bills change, Barclays Capital analysts said.
[...]
About 40 percent of borrowers with option ARMs are already delinquent, and “many” of the others will start missing payments before their obligations change, the Barclays mortgage- bond analysts wrote in a July 24 report. Recasts of securitized option ARMs will peak at about $6 billion a month in mid-2011 and include “volumes lower than feared” overall, they said.

Bis 2011 sind die längst mehrheitlich Pleite...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aX39_VW6pf3U
Bloomberg ist etwas pessimistisch:
Zitat:The U.S. economy may be just as sluggish during the next 20 years as Japan’s economy was in the last 20, according to Comstock Partners, a money manager founded and run by Charles Minter.

Stimulus programs and a surging money supply aren’t likely to “solve a problem of excess debt generation that resulted from greed and living way beyond our means,” the firm wrote yesterday in an unsigned report on its Web site. “We could wind up with a lost couple of decades.”

The CHART OF THE DAY shows U.S. total debt and gross domestic product since 1952, along with the ratio between them, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. The ratio rose in the first quarter to 372 percent even as household borrowing dropped for a second straight quarter, an unprecedented streak.


Die dazu gehörige Graphik

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6797072.ece
Nicht jeder erfolgreiche Einwanderer ist in den USA gerne gesehen:
Zitat:The greatest threat to America’s fragile drinking-water system is not terrorism or climate change, according to scientists, but an invasion of tiny, zebra-striped molluscs, each one barely the size of a thumbnail.

The quagga mussels first came to America in the ballast of ships from Ukraine and other parts of Eastern Europe in the 1980s. It was not until recently, however, when the molluscs turned up in Lake Mead, which supplies drinking water to Las Vegas and other large desert cities, that the catastrophic scale of the invasion became clear.
[...]
There are now believed to be at least three trillion of them in Lake Mead, and scientists say it is only a matter of time before they spread throughout the West’s vast network of reservoirs and aqueducts, causing damage estimated at billions of dollars.

At the Hoover Dam there are sometimes 55,000 mussels per square foot in the intake towers, hampering the facility’s electricity-generating equipment.
[...]
Apart from their ability to reproduce at an astonishing rate — a female quagga mussel can produce as many as one million eggs a year — the molluscs can attach themselves to almost anything, clogging drains and pipes and ruining boat engines.

They also feast on phytoplankton, which is an important food source for zooplankton, and so can radically change the ecosystem within a lake.

The mucus-wrapped excretion of the mussels can eventually turn a lake more acidic. Emergency measures already in place include the decontamination or quarantine of boats travelling in infested areas, and the use of sniffer dogs that can identify mussels.


http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc090810.htm
Zitat:When markets crashes are coupled with changes in the fundamentals that supported the preceding bubble - as we observed in the post-1929 market, the gold market of the 1980's, and the post-1990 Japanese market, and currently observe in the deflation of the recent debt bubble - they typically do not recover quickly. Indeed, the hallmark of these post-crash markets is the very extended sideways adjustment that they experience, generally for many years.

Graphik: Crashdauer (1929, Gold, Nikkei)

Gruß, Uwe

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