Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2009-03-14 19:32:21
Ausgabe 84
Anhängedubai.jpg (29 KB),pallet_x_10000.jpg (36 KB)
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Zur Einstimmung ein Blick auf Dubai:


Dubai im Nebel
Quelle

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://www.economist.com/science/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13271832&source=features_box_main
Zitat:At a scientific conference on climate change held this week in Copenhagen, four environmental experts announced that sea levels appear to be rising almost twice as rapidly as had been forecast by the United Nations just two years ago. The warning is aimed at politicians who will meet in the same city in December to discuss the same subject and, perhaps, to thrash out an international agreement to counter it.

The reason for the rapid change in the predicted rise in sea levels is a rapid increase in the information available. In 2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change convened by the UN made its prediction that sea levels would rise by between 18cm and 59cm by 2100, a lack of knowledge about how the polar ice caps were behaving was behind much of the uncertainty. Since then they have been closely monitored, and the results are disturbing. Both the Greenland and the Antarctic caps have been melting at an accelerating rate. It is this melting ice that is raising sea levels much faster than had been expected. Indeed, scientists now reckon that sea levels will rise by between 50cm and 100cm by 2100, unless action is taken to curb climate change.


Das Thema wird sogar USA-tauglich.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/4976275/Amazon-rainforest-at-risk-of--ecological-catastrophe.html
Zitat:Climate change could kill the Amazon rainforest even if deforestation and emissions are curbed, scientists at the Met Office fear.

Even small rises in temperature could destroy large swathes of the jungle, they believe.

Changing rainfall patterns already under way could leave up to three quarters of the forest dry and withered by the middle of the next century.

The result would not only be an ecological "catastrophe" but could also turn the global weather system on its head, the researchers said.

The findings were presented to the climate summit in Copenhagen by scientists at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre in Exeter, which specialises in climate prediction and research.

The team has calculated that if, as widely anticipated, the world’s average temperature rises by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from the pre-industrial levels of around 14C (57F) by the middle of the century, then between 20 and 40 per cent of the Amazon’s trees will disappear.

If the more pessimistic predictions of a 3 degree C rise are correct, then as much as 75 per cent of the forest will be destroyed by 2150.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7921936.stm
Zitat:
Climate change is already having an impact on European bird species, according to British scientists.
[...]
"Overall, the trend is towards net loss," said a spokesman for the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), which contributed to the study.
[...]
The researchers found birds that are expected to do well as temperatures rise had indeed increased in number since the 1980s.

But some 75% of species studied by the researchers had declined in the same period.

The study compared the change in population numbers of bird species over the last two decades with the projected change in their ranges and found a strong link.
These shifts in species territory are thought to be associated with climate change.

Of the 122 species included in the study (out of 526 species that nest in Europe), 30 are projected to increase their range, while the remaining 92 species are anticipated to experience a contraction in their territory.

Das heißt allerdings nicht, daß die Artenvielfalt zurückgehen muß - es wird viele, viele Zuwanderer geben.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7936137.stm
Zitat:Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are acidifying the oceans and threaten a mass extinction of sea life, a top ocean scientist warns.

Dr Carol Turley from Plymouth Marine Laboratory says it is impossible to know how marine life will cope, but she fears many species will not survive.

Since the Industrial Revolution, CO2 emissions have already turned the sea about 30% more acidic, say researchers.

It is more acidic now than it has been for at least 500,000 years, they add.
...
Laboratory tests suggest starfish may be wiped out before the end of the century if current emissions trends continue.

Scientists fear mussels may not be able to cope, either. Oysters may be less vulnerable, and farmed oysters may fare better than wild oysters.


http://www.physorg.com/news155848204.html
Zitat:Rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the resulting effects on ocean water are making it increasingly difficult for coral reefs to grow, say scientists. A study to be published online March 13, 2009 in Geophysical Research Letters by researchers at the Carnegie Institution and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem warns that if carbon dioxide reaches double pre-industrial levels, coral reefs can be expected to not just stop growing, but also to begin dissolving all over the world.

besuchen Sie die Korallenriffe, so lange sie noch stehen.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/mar/11/us-carbon-cuts
Die Realitäten in der Politik:
Zitat:Rajendra Pachauri, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said domestic political constraints made it impossible for the US president to announce ambitious short-term climate targets similar to those set by Europe. And he questioned the value of a new global climate deal without such a US pledge.

Obama has said the US will work to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. Europe has pledged to cut them by 20-30% on 1990 levels by 2020. The IPCC says developed nations should aim for 25-40% cuts by then to avoid dangerous climate change.

Speaking on the fringes of a high-level scientific conference on climate change in Copenhagen, Pachauri told the Guardian: "He [Obama] is not going to say by 2020 I'm going to reduce emissions by 30%. He'll have a revolution on his hands. He has to do it step by step."


http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/03/global-stimulus-as-percent-of-gdp.html
Zitat:Many countries have announced plans to implement a sizeable discretionary fiscal stimulus to boost aggregate demand. To date, the G-20 countries have adopted (or plan to adopt) fiscal stimulus measures amounting on average to around ½ percent of GDP in 2008, 1½ percent of GDP in 2009, and about 1¼ percent of GDP in 2010. For 2010, however, most G-20 countries have not yet announced fiscal packages, so the current estimate should be viewed as tentative.

Stimuli für 2008 bis 2010 verglichen


http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE52966Z20090310
Zitat:Private equity company Blackstone Group LP (BX.N) CEO Stephen Schwarzman said on Tuesday that up to 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed by the global credit crisis.

"Between 40 and 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed in little less than a year and a half," Schwarzman told an audience at the Japan Society. "This is absolutely unprecedented in our lifetime."


"45% sind weg, und unsere Kunden durften sogar daran teilhaben". Ob das Blackstones Kunden und Aktionären wenigstens ein gutes Gefühl verschafft?

Andererseits habe ich keinen Zweifel daran, daß Blackstones Aktionäre sowieso Idioten etwas anders gestrickt sind...

Zitat von Nochmal mein Lieblingssatz über Blackstone:Blackstone said at the time of its IPO that it may continue to have net losses ``for a number of years'' because of the cost of buying stakes from executives. (Quelle)

http://www.joc.com/node/409860
Internationale Containerschiffahrt:
Zitat:Idled ocean container capacity on March 2 reached a record 1.35 million TEUs with 453 ships without work as carriers continue to axe services in the face of collapsing cargo volumes and tumbling freight rates across all trade routes.

The jobless figure, up from 392 vessels of 1.1 million TEUs two weeks ago, is equivalent to 10.7 percent of the world cellular container ship fleet in capacity terms, according to AXS-Alphaliner, the Paris-based consultant.

This is the highest unemployment rate in the history of container shipping and is three times the 3.5 percent jobless figure in the depth of the 2002 bear market.

The idled fleet has nearly tripled since the beginning of the year when it stood at 210 ships of 550,000 TEUs. In late October the jobless fleet totaled 70 ships of 150,000 TEUs.


Zusammenfassung der stillgelegten Containerschiffkapazitäten:
[in]
Spätoktober 2008: 70 Schiffe, 150000 TEUs (Container).
Anfang 2009: 210 Schiffe, 550000 TEUs.
Vor zwei Wochen: 392 Schiffe, 1100000 TEUs.
Jetzt: 453 Schiffe, 1350000 TEUs.
[/in]

http://www.ogj.com/articles/article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_ID=354768
Kann der Ölpreis weiter fallen? Ja, er kann...
Zitat:Deutsche Bank analysts Lucas Herrmann, Elaine Dunphy, and Adam Sieminski said four simple observations can be made. First, cash operating costs are very low. On average the cash cost of extracting a barrel of oil in the mature and higher-cost, non-OPEC markets of Russia, UK, Norway, and Alaska is about $15/bbl—greatly below the current oil price. Only in the Canadian oil sands do average cash costs of about $28/bbl approach the prevailing $35-40/bbl price of West Texas Intermediate.

Second, the analysis found that lower oil prices would shut in much oil production. Looking at the marginal cash cost curves within these mature regions, a modest 700,000 b/d of production would be cash negative with an oil price of $30/bbl, including 400,000 b/d of oil sands production. However, at a $20/bbl WTI oil price this rises towards a more substantial 3.5 million b/d.

The third observation is that decline rates could curtail supply quickly. Past oil-price collapses have been associated with a sharp increase in the decline rates observed in mature basins. Using past production curves as a proxy, Deutsche Bank estimates that as much as 1.5 million b/d of supply could be lost to accelerated decline over the next 2 years within the US onshore, Alaska, Canada, UK, Norway, and Russia.

Finally, the analysts see that new supply projects are being postponed. Within the growth regions, the rise in costs and taxes in recent years suggests that the average oil price necessary to achieve a 15% rate of return is now $68/bbl in Angola, $62/bbl in the US Gulf of Mexico, $60/bbl in deepwater Nigeria, and around $60/bbl in Brazil, although this depends heavily on the scale of the development considered.


Das eigentliche Problem ist also, daß der derzeitige Preis nicht ausreicht, neue Felder zu erschließen.

Auf der positiven Seite aber lohnt sich ein Preisdumping für niemanden - so viele derzeitige Wettbewerber bekäme man auch mit $20 nicht aus dem Markt gedrängt.


http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/09/japan-reconsidered/
Krugman über Japan bzw. die USA:
Zitat:For a decade or so Japan’s lost decade has been the great bugaboo of modern macroeconomics. Economists constantly warned that you mustn’t do X or you must do Y, because otherwise we’ll turn into Japan. And policymakers congratulated themselves in advance for not being like their Japanese counterparts, who dithered and drifted, refusing to make hard decisions.

Well, I’m sure I’m not the only person to notice this: Japan doesn’t look so bad these days.

For one thing, the famed sluggishness of Japanese policy — the refusal to face up to banking system losses and pour in the funds needed to recapitalize the system, the refusal to let zombie banks die, the stop-go nature of fiscal policy, with concerns about rising debt warring with concerns about the economy — all of that seems entirely comprehensible now, doesn’t it? Even with the knowledge of what happened to Japan to motivate us, so far we’re following exactly the same path.

And given what the next couple of years are likely to look like, Japan’s lost decade — yes, growth was slow, but there wasn’t mass unemployment or mass suffering — is actually starting to look pretty good. We may or may not be about to face our own lost decade, but the sheer misery millions of Americans will face in the near future probably exceeds anything that happened in Japan during the 90s.

I still hope we can do better than the Japanese did, but it’s not at all obvious that we will.


http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=83310
Zitat:A 25-year-old man we will call Shakir has told IRIN he rues rejecting an offer of “work” from a Taliban agent whereby he would get 500 Afghanis (about US$10) a day for carrying out attacks on government offices in Farah Province, southwestern Afghanistan.
[...]
Shakir was deported from Iran three times in 2006-2008 and his efforts to find a job in his home district of Pushtroad have been unsuccessful. “I cannot marry and start a family because I have no money… Wherever I go [for work] I return empty-handed,” he said.

“The Taliban pay 500-1,000 Afghanis [$10-20] for a day of action against government and American forces,” said Lutfullah, 23, from Helmand Province.

By contrast, government employees get less than $2 a day.


Für die Regierung zu arbeiten bringt 2$ am Tag, gegen sie zu arbeiten 10 bis 20. Mich dünkt, der Verlierer zahlt schlechter.

Wie dämlich muß man eigentlich sein, um glauben zu können, daß man unter diesen Umständen gewinnen kann?


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/world/americas/21argentina.html?_r=1
Zitat:Cows are dying by the thousands in the baking sun, and crops are being lost before their seeds even break the soil.

Argentina’s worst drought in more than 50 years is magnifying the country’s chances of suffering another economic crisis, and the lost farming revenue will complicate the government’s efforts to meet more than $18 billion in debt obligations this year, economists said.
[...]
Argentine ranchers have lost an estimated 1.5 million head of cattle, said Ernesto Ambrosetti, the chief economist at the Institute of Economic Studies at the Argentine Rural Society. Ricardo Theill, a dairy farmer in Ceres, in Santa Fe Province, told a radio station last week that he lost 106 cows in three hours when they abandoned their parched pasture, gorged on soybean plants and died from indigestion.
[...]
The United States Department of Agriculture last week dropped its estimate of Argentina’s corn crop to 13.5 million tons, down 35 percent from the department’s estimate last year.


Argentinien: Kornernte -35%, Rinderzahl -1.5 Millionen.

Und dann sind da noch die Staatsfinanzen:

Zitat von none:A separate problem is that the country’s supply of dollars is falling as demands increase and capital flight continues, said Daniel Kerner, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a risk consulting firm. That could add pressure on the government to tap Central Bank reserves or to severely devalue its exchange rate. Last year, Argentines pulled out about $25 billion from the country, Mr. Kerner said.

Though most economists say they believe the government can squeak by and avoid another crippling default on its debts, sidestepping a major devaluation of the currency, the peso, will be a more delicate dance.

For now, the Kirchner government appears committed to gradually devaluing the peso to avoid stoking a widespread panic.

With the cash that the government seized from private pension funds and other instruments, it can shave down a $10 billion financing gap this year to a more manageable $2 billion, said Esteban Medrano, an economic adviser at LatinSource, a consulting firm.

He said a steep drop in production could be offset somewhat by millions of tons of grains that farmers stored last year when they were battling the government.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9Ih4pDxaIK4&refer=home
Zitat:China’s trade surplus plunged in February as exports fell by a record, adding pressure on the government to spur domestic consumption to prop up the world’s third-biggest economy.

The trade gap narrowed to $4.8 billion, about an eighth of the amount in the previous month, the customs bureau said in a statement. Exports tumbled 25.7 percent from a year earlier. Imports fell 24.1 percent.

Plus:

Zitat:Plunging exports and imports forced 20,000 small- and medium-sized companies in China’s Guangdong province to close since October, shedding 2 million jobs, the Nanfang Daily newspaper reported last month.

Alleine 2 Mio. Jobs gingen in der Provinz Guangdong seit Oktober verloren.

http://www.platts.com/Oil/News/8410420.xml?S=printer&src=Oilrssheadlines1
Zitat:China's crude imports dived to a 26-month low in February, as Beijing Wednesday announced more gloomy trade data which shows that the world's
third-largest economy has taken a harder-than-expected hit from the deepening
global economic downturn.

According to preliminary figures released by the Chinese customs Wednesday, the country imported 11.73 million mt (3.08 million b/d) of crude oil last month.

The volume was the lowest since the Chinese customs tallied 11.56 million mt of crude imports in December 2006.

China's February crude imports represented a 17.9% decline from 14.29 million mt recorded in the same month in 2008. The volume was also 8.5% less than January's 12.82 million mt.

In the first two months of 2009, the country imported 24.55 million mt (3.06 million b/d) of crude, falling 13% on the year.


Ich weiß, ich rede permanent die Dinge schlecht, aber wie in aller Welt China ein Wirtschaftswachstum bei rückläufigem Ölimport hinbekommen haben will, erschließt sich mir nicht. Es ist ja nicht so, daß China plötzlich zur Dienstleistungsgesellschaft mutiert wäre...

http://www.pekingduck.org/2009/03/chinas-luxury-mall-calamity/
Einkaufszentren in Peking:
Zitat:Today I visited Beijing’s most stunningly dysfunctional, catastrophic mall, called The Place, and all I could think about was what I wrote back in 2006. Made to look kind of like Versailles on the outside, The Place is an irrational maze of stores and eateries that seems to have been designed to turn off and turn away customers. It has stairways that lead nowhere, unmarked elevators that take you to surprising places, not to mention a generally chintzy feeling created by all the faux marble and Grecian columns; it always looked pompous, but now it’s looking seedy and run-down as well.

The Place is around the corner from my office, and this was my first trip back in about two months, I was shocked at what I saw. Fifty percent of the eateries in the basement were boarded up. The cheap food court, too, was gone, covered up with ugly blue boarding, making the basement especially grim and dreary. The two good restaurants there, Ganges and Master Kong Chef’s, were still thriving. The few others that remained seemed to be just hanging on.

That same night I went by The Village, which seemed so cool when it first arrived and now seems so unnecessary aside from the Apple store and a couple of restaurants. Same thing as The Place: lonely clerks looking plaintively out the store windows, eyes begging you to come in and buy something. But no one does. There is simply too much stuff, too many stores, and no buyers. Do you have to be a rocket scientist to conclude this is unsustainable? And to top it off, they are now finishing the second Village mall down the street, across from the Poppa Bear of all disaster malls, 3.3. All I can say is, WTF??

I’m predicting The Place and many of its sister ghost malls, shunned by customers overwhelmed by so many malls to choose from, each selling the same crap that no one can afford nowadays, are going to experience a catastrophe, if they haven’t already, and will ultimately become burnt-out, boarded-up shells. In turn, this is going to throw a lot of fuel on China’s current financial crisis. Real estate will be further cheapened, and the general misery unique to times of deflation will set in. Brother, can you spare a dime?


Ähnlich erfolgreich wie das South China Mall...

Ich hab' eben locker und leicht 20 Minuten nach Bildern von "The Place" und "The Village" gesucht, und abgesehen von diversen interessanten Nachtaufnahmen nicht viel Interessantes gefunden - aber was ich gefunden habe, zeigte wenige bis keine Menschen.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=af5CvJkFtc8k&refer=china
Die Deflation ist in China eingezogen:
Zitat:China’s consumer prices fell for the first time since 2002 as food, clothing and fuel costs declined, threatening growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

Consumer prices dropped 1.6 percent in February from a year earlier, when they reached an 11-year high, the statistics bureau said today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 10 economists was for a 1 percent decline. Producer prices fell 4.5 percent, the most in a decade.


Da stellt sich glatt die Frage, ob das eine kurzfristige Korrektur oder ein Jahre währender Trend wird.

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,609868,00.html
Zitat:Der massive Gewinneinbruch beim Autokonzern Daimler trifft auch die Stadt Sindelfingen. Wegen Gewerbesteuerrückzahlungen gerät die Kommune finanziell in die Bredouille. Dabei geht es um einen Betrag von 37 Millionen Euro - deutlich mehr als erwartet.

Der Sindelfinger Haushaltsentwurf sei nur noch "ein Werk für den Papierkorb", teilte die Stadt am Mittwoch mit. Der Etat sei nicht genehmigungsfähig, es gelte ab sofort eine Haushalts- und Stellenbesetzungssperre.


Ähnliches wird man noch von anderen Städten zu hören bekommen: Unter anderem Eisenach, München, Dingolfing, Rüsselsheim, Bochum, Köln, Saarlouis, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart/Sindelfingen und Dresden.

http://www.ftd.de/technik/it_telekommunikation/:Marode-Infineon-Tochter-Qimonda-stoppt-Produktion-in-Dresden/487046.html
Qimonda geht's wirklich nicht gut:
Zitat:Die Suche nach einem Investor war vergeblich: Deshalb stellt der insolvente Speicherchiphersteller seine Produktion in Dresden ein. Die Beschäftigten haben die Hoffnung aber noch nicht augegeben.

Der vorläufige Produktionsstopp soll ab 1. April gelten. Allerdings werde eine Rumpfmannschaft eine mögliche Wiederaufnahme der Fertigung gewährleisten, teilte die Infineon-Tochter am Freitag mit.

An Qimonda hätten "verschiedene Investoren Interesse bekundet; verbindliche Angebote liegen jedoch noch nicht vor. Es steht erwartungsgemäß fest, dass es bis Ende März keine abschließende Lösung geben kann", sagte Insolvenzverwalter Michael Jaffé nach einer Sitzung des Gläubigerausschusses.


http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,609519,00.html
Zitat:Vor der Verabschiedung des Rettungspakets für die schwer angeschlagene HSH Nordbank haben schleswig-holsteinische Politiker vor einem Staatsbankrott ihres Landes gewarnt. Der stellvertretende CDU-Parteivorsitzende Rasmus Vöge sagte der "Bild"-Zeitung, Schleswig-Holstein sei wegen der HSH Nordbank "quasi bankrott". Jetzt müsse es darum gehen, weiteren Schaden vom schleswig-holsteinischen Steuerzahler abzuwenden.

Auch der FDP-Fraktionsvorsitzende im Kieler Landtag, Wolfgang Kubicki, erklärte, mit den Milliardenhilfen für die HSH übernehme sich Schleswig-Holstein. "Dem Land droht die politische Handlungsunfähigkeit. Das käme einem politischen Bankrott wie in Island gleich", sagte Kubicki laut der Zeitung. Der FDP-Politiker erwartet dem Bericht zufolge, dass die HSH Ende 2009 bereits weiteres Eigenkapital von mindestens drei Milliarden Euro benötigt.


Da stellt sich die Frage: Hinken unsere Politiker der Entwicklung einfach nur weit hinterher, oder sind sie Gegenindikatoren?

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,609643,00.html
Zitat:Ole Schröder, der Chef der CDU-Landesgruppe Schleswig-Holstein im Bundestag, sagt: "Als einzige Landesbank hat die HSH Nordbank ein tragfähiges Geschäftsmodell."

Wenn das Geschäftsmodell darin besteht, Bundesländer in die Pleite zu treiben...

http://www.faz.net/s/Rub1C361F33FC404444A08B1CFAE205D3E4/Doc~EB754EE9461774D84B2E9D35656B25489~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html?rss_aktuell
Zitat:Mythos 1: Opel ist ein gesundes Unternehmen

Zwar heißt es oft, Opel stehe gut da. Doch das kann nicht sein. Im europäischen GM-Geschäft sind allein im dritten Quartal 2008 Verluste in Höhe von rund einer Milliarde Euro angefallen - und Opel ist für etwa 80 Prozent des GM-Geschäfts in Europa verantwortlich.


Ich weiß nicht, ob ich den GM-Zahlen überhaupt irgendwie glauben möchte (ich habe halt ein tief sitzendes Mißtrauen Zahlen aus dem Hause GM), und das dritte Quartal 2008 ist sicherlich kein Gutes gewesen, aber an dem Argument ist etwas dran.

Zitat:Mythos 2: Opel ist ein eigenständiges Unternehmen

Opel ist alles andere als unabhängig. Opel ist integraler Bestandteil des General-Motors-Konzerns - und das schon seit dem Jahr 1929. Damals wurde Opel ein 100-prozentiges Tochterunternehmen von GM. Die Verflechtungen sind über Jahrzehnte gewachsen und deshalb eng.


das sind immerhin 80 Jahre... und wer weiß, an wie vielen Stellen Opel auf GM angewiesen ist? Wieviele technische Abhängigkeiten? Wieviele Knebelverträge? Und wieviele wirtschaftliche Abhängigkeiten?
Um das Geflecht aufzulösen, und zwar so, daß GM und Nachfolgeunternehmen wirklich draußen sind, könnte eine Insolvenz durchaus das richtige Mittel sein.

Zitat:Mythos 3: Opel wird gebraucht

(Image) Weder bei den älteren Kunden, die sich erinnern, dass es lange Zeit an der Qualität haperte. Noch bei den Jungen. Der Autoexperte Stefan Bratzel von der Fachhochschule Bergisch Gladbach hat herausgefunden, dass die 18- bis 25- Jährigen die Marke Opel nicht schätzen: In einer Studie heißt es, dass Opel eine "besonders uninteressante Marke" sei.


So ungerne ich das auch sage, aber der letzte Opel mit Mythoscharakter war der Manta.

Zitat:Mythos 4: Opel baut tolle Autos für die Zukunft

Keine Frage, der neue Opel Insignia ist ein guter Wagen, wenn man der Auszeichnung "Auto des Jahres 2009" glauben darf. Doch selbst wenn Opel davon viele Fahrzeuge verkauft: Für die nähere Zukunft wird das dem Unternehmen wenig bringen. In der Autoindustrie zählt Volumen, also eine hohe Produktionszahl, damit die Stückkosten sinken. Und dies wird Opel mit dem Insignia nicht erreichen können. Zwar könnten Marken wie Corsa und der Astra für mehr Auslastung in den Fabriken sorgen - besonders weil solche Modelle wegen der Abwrackprämie derzeit sehr gefragt sind. Doch gerade in diesem Modellsegment ist die Opel-Konkurrenz meist besser aufgestellt. So hat etwa VW mit dem neuen Golf ein aktuelleres Produkt im Markt. Und der neue Astra von Opel lässt auf sich warten.


Zumal man die Marktverzerrung durch die Abwrackprämie besser heraus rechnen sollte: Da scheint an Kleinwagen verkauft zu werden, was überhaupt noch lieferbar ist.

Zitat:Mythos 5: Politiker können Opel retten

krisengeplagte Unternehmen durch Staatseingriff zu stützen hat selten funktioniert. Greift der Staat ein, wird der Niedergang der Unternehmen häufig nur hinausgezögert, jedoch nicht verhindert.


Absolut richtig.

Zitat:Mythos 6: Opel geht es ohne GM besser

Im vergangenen Jahr verkaufte Opel gemeinsam mit der Schwestermarke Vauxhall 1,5 Millionen Autos. Das ist im Vergleich zur Konkurrenz zu wenig. Opel ist zu klein. Dabei ist gerade der europäische Automarkt besonders hart umkämpft. Ohne Kooperationen mit anderen Herstellern, die helfen, die Kosten zu senken und die Auslastung zu sichern, kann Opel nicht überleben. Bei einer Trennung von GM und Opel stellt sich die Frage, wie Opel weitermachen will: Zwar hat das Unternehmen auch Vorteile gegenüber GM, zum Beispiel ist es gut bei der Entwicklung umweltfreundlicher Fahrzeuge, doch GM hat bisher mit seinen Aufträgen dafür gesorgt, dass Opel in den Bereichen Forschung und Entwicklung und in der Produktion viele Aufträge erhält. Das würde bei einer Trennung von GM entfallen. Und neue Arbeit ist nicht in Sicht.


Ich weiß nicht recht, ob das stimmt, 1.5 Millionen sollten eigentlich reichen - bei Fiat hieß es damals, die Grenze wäre bei einer oder 1.2 Mio.
Aber ob Opel auf die 1.5 Millionen käme, ist eine andere Frage. Laut GM-Zahlen sah's 2007 in Europa so aus:
[in]
Country*                   Opel/Vxh  Chevrolet   Saab
Units Units Units
United Kingdom 384,372 18,356 23,642
Germany 299,239 25,590 4,168
Russia 66,329 189,492 757
Italy 187,128 44,925 4,362
Spain 136,153 28,503 5,361
France 112,337 8,819 3,368
Netherlands 56,303 9,022 3,064
Belgium & Luxembourg 56,980 5,728 3,202
Ukraine 13,574 46,519 14
Sweden 13,366 2,712 24,913
Turkey 33,220 4,963 98
Poland 29,211 5,204 490
Portugal 30,787 3,073 257
Romania 19,684 13,090 157
Greece 24,056 7,009 1,107
Austria 25,706 3,191 372
Hungary 21,430 7,235 322
Switzerland 22,295 3,613 2,202
Ireland 18,353 1,587 1,087
Denmark 15,435 3,199 1,433
Croatia 12,850 2,530 13
Norway 9,976 675 2,515
Finland 6,397 1,779 1,546
Czech Republic 5,651 3,150 82
Slovenia 6,837 1,170 12
Serbia-Montenegro 5,102 2,492 19
Bulgaria 4,316 2,684 40
Slovakia 3,565 1,076 18
Macedonia 1,018 1,709 -
Latvia 1,637 693 85
Estonia 1,517 450 127
Lithuania 1,834 175 81
Bosnia-Hercegovina 569 349 -
Albania 78 53 -
Misc. Other Europe 3,124 1,302 138
Other FSU 401 5,017 -
Total Europe 1,630,830 457,134 85,052
*Sorted by Total GM units.
[/in]
So rund 600000 Verkäufe fanden in Ländern statt, die derzeit ökonomische Todeszone sind, und deren Erholung eine Weile dauern wird (Großbritannien, Rußland, Spanien, Ukraine), und darüber hinaus sind noch etliche andere Namen in der Liste stabiler oder gar steigender Umsatzzahlen vollkommen unverdächtig.

Zitat:Mythos 7: Die Krise ist schuld an Opels Misere

Gerne wird behauptet, die Krise habe die schlechte Lage von Opel erst verursacht. Das ist nicht richtig. Zwar stimmt es, dass Opel allein im Januar dieses Jahres 23 Prozent weniger Autos als im Vorjahreszeitraum verkauft hat. Doch Opel schwächelt schon seit Jahren. Das Grundproblem ist, dass die Zulassungen in Deutschland seit langem zurückgehen und der Automarkt gesättigt ist. Diese Probleme der Autohersteller wurden durch die Finanzkrise zwar verschärft, doch die Überkapazitäten, das rückläufige Branchenwachstum und die verfehlte Modellpolitik haben mit der Finanzkrise nichts zu tun.


Laut dem Kraftfahrtbundesamt (eine meiner Meinung nach fürchterlich schlecht gemachte Seite) sind das die Opelverkaufszahlen der letzten Jahre
[in]

2007 285267 9,01 %
2006 334479 9,65 %
2005 347960 10,41 %
2004 334491 10,24 %
2003 332781 10,28 %
2002 337535 10,38 %
2001 396214 11,86 %
2000 411193 12,17 %
[/in]
Und wenn man mal davon ausgeht, daß der deutsche Verbraucher nicht plötzlich die Autos, der er jahrelang nicht wollte, doch zu mögen beginnt, dann ist auch nicht anzunehmen, daß Opel in Zukunft nennenswert steigende Marktanteile haben wird.

Daneben ist da noch das Problem der Überkapazitäten auf dem Markt.

Gruss, Uwe


http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:Handelsschiffbau-unter-Druck-Thyssen-stoppt-Bau-von-vier-Schiffen/486144.html
Zitat:Die Krise der Containerschifffahrt hat nun auch ThyssenKrupp mit Wucht getroffen. Bei den Werften in Kiel und Emden müsse der Bau von vier Handelsschiffen mit sofortiger Wirkung gestoppt werden, teilte die Werftensparte ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) mit.

Die Auftraggeber hätten keine Finanzierungszusagen von Banken. Nach FTD-Informationen aus Schifffahrtskreisen wurden die Schiffe von Buxpower in Auftrag gegeben, einer Investmenttochter des deutschen Reedereiriesen NSB Niederelbe aus Buxtehude. NSB war für eine Stellungnahme nicht zu erreichen. TKMS wollte auf Anfrage nicht sagen, wer die Schiffe bestellt hatte.


Zeit wird's ja.

http://www.property-report.com/property-news-top-stories.php?id=2394&date=110309
Zitat:More than 50 percent of Dubai´s residential projects due for completion between 2009 and 2011 have now either been put on hold or cancelled, according to Jones Lang LaSalle.

und das sind noch zu wenige Projektabbrüche.
Zitat:An estimated additional 190,000 new units were expected to enter Dubai´s property market between 2009 and 2011.

However, Jones Lang LaSalle estimates that this will now be reduced to 90,000 units.


Diese 90000 zusätzlichen Wohneinheiten sind 90000 mehr Gründe, warum die Preise weiter verfallen werden.

Und verfallen tun sie, wobei der Mirror nicht ganz die Nachrichtenquelle ist, der ich äußerste Genauigkeit bei der Recherche unterstellen würde:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/03/08/celebs-losing-80k-a-week-on-their-dubai-mansions-115875-21180367/

Zitat:Celebs who bought the properties in their droves over the last few years have seen prices halve, with pads worth £3.2million in October now on the market for £1.6million.

Das ist schon ein beachtlicher Wertverfall - 50% in weniger als 6 Monaten.
Zitat:
Jack Whisker, of luxury agents Dream Property Dubai, said: "The Dubai market has fallen off a cliff.

"The credit crunch hit us suddenly because all the foreign investors lost confidence.

"It has hit the higher-value properties the hardest. Fourbedroom villas worth £3million a couple of months ago are now being sold for £1.5million."


Mit starkem Verfall der Preise hatte ich ja gerechnet, aber das ist mehr als stark.

http://www.kippreport.com/kipp/office-vacancies-in-dubai-more-than-double-says-jones-lang-lasalle/
Zitat:Office space vacancies have more than doubled in Dubai to 16 percent from 7 percent since July 2008, says a report by property consultant Jones Lang LaSalle. The report, published on Monday, states that an additional 4.7 million square feet of office space have come onto the market since the second half of 2008, bringing the total to 29.5 million square feet.

2008-07: 7% Leerstand.
2009-03: 16% Leerstand.
Und dank der fortschrittlich geregelten Aufenthaltserlaubnisse in Dubai (erlauben Aufenthalt für einen Monat nach Jobverlust) und dem dadurch bedingten Einsetzen der Massenflucht von Ausländern wird das nicht viel besser werden...

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/GMABig/Story?id=7037513&page=2
Zitat:Though 90 percent of Dubai's population is foreign workers, the government is reportedly canceling 1,500 work visas per day. Most people are given just a month to find a new job. There has been a mass exodus as a result.

1500 pro Woche = 78000 pro Jahr = rund 3.5% der Bevölkerung.
Plus Angehörige. Plus all diejenigen, die so gehen. Oops.
Sind das vielleicht die Leute, für die gerade Wohnungen auf den Markt kommen?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ahmed-shihabeldin/has-dubais-overblown-bubb_b_168044.html
Zitat:As one cab driver, who came to Dubai 30 years ago to work as a fisherman, told me, "Business is not good like before. Too many people are leaving," he said. "Even when I drive home to Ajman (a neighboring emirate) there is little traffic. Little traffic and little business."

A short stroll from the beach into the main shopping strip near JBR confirmed the difficult realities facing Dubai. In the middle of the day, I walked around the new Saks Fifth Avenue store in the complex for 15 minutes without anyone else in there - it was like I was P.Diddy for a minute - on my own private shopping spree (with prices slashed up to 70%).


Leere Einkaufszentren auch dort. Naja, warum auch nicht...

Und dann ist da noch dieses Goldstück in der Bilderserie im Artikel:

Zitat:New media laws introduced in the UAE threaten to fine those who knowingly publish stories that damage the UAE's reputation or have a negative effect on the economy.

daher weise ich darauf hin, daß alles gut werden wird in Dubai. Nur wann?

http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/dubai-laesst-rechnungen-platzen;2197226
Zitat:„Wir rechnen für 2009 mit einem Rückgang im zweistelligen Bereich“, sagte Felix Neugart, Referatsleiter für den Mittleren Osten und Nordafrika beim DIHK, dem Handelsblatt. „Die Ursache liegt im stark abnehmenden Baugeschäft, insbesondere in Dubai.“
[...]Im vergangenen Jahr hatten deutsche Lieferungen in den Golfstaat noch einen Wachstumsschub von 40 Prozent verzeichnet. Außerhalb Europas war die arabische Halbinsel mit einem Gesamtvolumen von 17,8 Mrd. Dollar der viertgrößte Exportmarkt für Deutschland nach den USA, China und Russland.

Schön war's, so lange die Musik noch spielte...

Zitat:Dubais Konjunktur, die am Tropf der Immobilien-Wirtschaft hängt, leidet derzeit unter einem akuten Kapitalmangel. In der Folge sitzen zahlreiche deutsche Baufirmen auf unbezahlten Rechnungen. "Mein Finanzchef läuft derzeit nur noch dem Geld hinterher: Es ist die nackte Katastrophe", klagt der Leiter eines großen Bauzulieferers. Die Außenstände seines Unternehmens summierten sich bereits auf einen hohen zweistelligen Millionenbetrag in Euro.

Nach Einschätzung von Oliver Parche von der Außenhandelskammer in Dubai hat sich die Zahlungsmoral in der Glitzer-Metropole seit Oktober letzten Jahres dramatisch verschlechtert. [...] Kaum ein Firmenchef möchte sich jedoch namentlich dazu äußern - aus Sorge, künftig bei öffentlichen Aufträgen in Dubai nicht zum Zuge zu kommen.

Zitat:Wie viele Projekte in Dubai gekippt oder verzögert wurden, ist eines der bestgehüteten Geheimnisse. Ein großes Bauunternehmen in der Region schätzt, dass in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten Vorhaben im Gesamtwert von 75 Milliarden Dollar auf Eis liegen - die meisten davon in Dubai. [...]

Fachleute rechnen nun mit heftigen Entlassungswellen. Nach Informationen aus dem indischen Generalkonsulat werden Vorbereitungen getroffen, um 300 000 Bauarbeiter aus Dubai abzuziehen. Mehr als 50 Prozent der 1,6 Millionen Einwohner zählenden Stadt besteht aus Indern, die zum großen Teil im Bausektor tätig sind.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/47a29716-0dc1-11de-8ea3-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:The cost of borrowing in European corporate bond markets reached record highs on Tuesday, a sudden worsening in sentiment that threatens to stymie the rush of issuance seen so far this year.

The main index of European investment grade corporate bonds saw spreads hit the highest levels on Tuesday, reaching 478bp, driven mainly by further investor aversion from financial companies, especially their more junior bonds.


Um das mal in ein Verhältnis zu setzen: Die Spreads für "investment grade" Unternehmensanleihen aus der Eurozone sind nun doppelt so hoch wie die Spreads für "High Yield" Junkanleihen Ende Juni 2007 gewesen sind (241 Basispunkte, laut
Quelle).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=akSi61xkAdT8&refer=europe
Zitat:Finland’s forest industry -- once a pillar of the Nordic nation’s economy -- may be collapsing as the global recession stifles demand and exacerbates years of plunging prices for commodities and products.
[...]
“When jobs vanish, it’s certain that those who want to work will move away,” said Timo Tyrvaeinen, chief economist at Aktia Bank Oyj in Helsinki. “We have ghost towns, lost villages -- lots of them -- throughout the country.”

The forest industry’s share of Finland’s economy has halved in three decades to 3.8 percent as exports fell to 15 percent of total shipments from 42 percent. In January, production slumped 35 percent from the same month a year earlier, the most on record, Finland’s statistics agency said March 10.


Forstwirtschaft: -35%, und das alleine wird 1.3% des finnischen BIPs fressen.

http://www.tatamotors.com/our_world/press_releases.php?ID=412&action=Pull
Nicht ansatzweise so schlimm wie im Dezember:
Zitat:Tata Motors’ domestic sales for the month of January 2009 were 35,704 nos., the highest in the last 3 months. Domestic commercial vehicle sales at 17,373 nos. were the highest since October 2008, while domestic passenger vehicle sales at 18,331 nos. were the highest since May 2008. The company’s total sales (including exports) were 36,931 vehicles, also highest in the last 3 months.

Im Dezember wurden insgesamt 25219 Autos verkauft, im Januar 36931. Schon besser, wenn auch immer noch schlecht:
Zitat:As a result, January 2009 domestic sales nos. were 30% lower than that of January 2008.

Zitat von Die Exporte sind allerdings weiter gesunken:The company's sales from exports at 1,227 vehicles in January 2009 declined by 70% compared to 4,147 vehicles in January 2008.

Januar 2008: 4147 Autos exportiert, Dezember 2008 1325, Januar 2009 1227.

http://in.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idINBOM315620090206?sp=true
Zitat:Tata Motors Ltd, India's top bus and truck maker, has been late in making some vendor payments, its managing director said, but did not disclose the outstanding dues or say when the payments would be made.

The Economic Times newspaper had earlier reported on Thursday that Tata Motors owed more than 12 billion rupees ($245 million) in delayed payments to vendors. [ID:nBOM135248]

"That is not a correct number," managing director Ravi Kant told reporters at a news conference.

"Yes, there is a delay... there would be a delay. I'm telling you we are in a difficult situation... the whole industry is," he said, but declined to say what amount of payments were delayed.

"There is a liquidity problem, banks are not lending."


Tata Motors zahlt Rechnungen verspätet. Nein, nicht weil sie insolvent wären, nur weil die Banken nichts leihen. Aha.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=ayC.URfvbnJI&refer=china
Zitat:“The market has collapsed,” Chief Executive Officer Tony Tyler said in a Bloomberg TV interview today in Hong Kong. “We can fill flights, but we’re filling them at very low fares, fares that are frankly not sustainable in the long run.”
[...]
“A lot of companies have been cutting down on travel,” said Jim Wong, an analyst at Nomura International Ltd. in Hong Kong. “The situation is deteriorating very rapidly.”

Cathay Pacific and its Hong Kong Dragon Airlines Ltd. unit carried 1.8 million passengers last month, a decline of 7.4 percent from a year earlier, it said yesterday. Freight volume dropped 17 percent.


-7.4% trotzt niedrigerer Preise - da kann man nur hoffen, daß die Situation nicht wirklich "deteriorating very rapidly" ist.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/6c1a6eb2-fc8b-11dd-aed8-000077b07658.html
Ein Update zu Re: Alles wird gut!!!53! - Hebelung japanischer Privatinvestoren:
Zitat:Foreign-currency-denominated assets held by Japanese households peaked at Y63,000bn (£476bn) at the end of July, before falling back by a dramatic Y15,000bn in the three months to the end of October. Online traders confirm there were big aggregate losses on their customers’ accounts as the yen soared.

Anlagen japanischer Haushalte in Fremdwährungen verfielen zwischen 2008-07 und 2008-10 um 23%.

Wenn die in Re: Alles wird gut!!!53! - Hebelung japanischer Privatinvestoren erwähnten 20fach gehebelten Investoren dabei waren: Prost Mahlzeit.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTCZ_f77WEqw&refer=home
Nach -26.7% im November und -35% im Dezember habe ich es für wahrscheinlich gehalten, daß sich die japanischen Exporte noch etwas verschlechtern - aber daß die Fallgeschwindigkeit dermaßen konstant bleibt, hatte ich für unwahrscheinlich gehalten...
Zitat:Japan’s exports plunged 45.7 percent in January from a year earlier, resulting in a record trade deficit, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe smothered demand for the country’s cars and electronics.
[...]
Exports to the U.S. tumbled an unprecedented 52.9 percent from a year earlier, and shipments to Asia and Europe also posted the largest-ever declines as the global recession deepened. The collapse is likely to force Japanese companies to keep firing workers and closing factories, worsening an economy that shrank the most in 34 years last quarter.
[...]
Shipments to Europe slid 47.4 percent in January from a year earlier, the Finance Ministry said. Exports to China fell 45.1 percent and those to Asia dropped 46.7 percent.

Oh, oh, oh - wenn man daran denkt, wie ähnlich sich die Bedingungen für die deutsche und japanische Wirtschaft sind, dann...

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/japans-exports-collapse-in-january/
Edward Hugh hat das graphisch umgesetzt:
Graphik: Japans Exportentwicklung
und:
Graphik: Wert von Japans Exporten
und schließt:

Zitat:And while talk from the Bank of Japan of possible share purchases saw Japanese stocks rebound from quarter-century lows and the yen was trading at its weakest level since last November the Japanese government has still been unable to pass the stimulus package that could help encourage domestic spending in the absence of export demand. Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling to get approval from the opposition-controlled upper house to spend 10 trillion yen to aid companies and households. But while the politicians dither, Tokyo burns, or almost.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/59fcb4bc-0ea9-11de-b099-0000779fd2ac.html
Zitat:Japan’s economy shrank 3.2 per cent in the final three months of last year, revised government data showed on Thursday, confirming the sharpest contraction since the oil crisis in 1974.

The fall in gross domestic product (GDP) for the October-December quarter in real, price-adjusted terms was slightly smaller than economists’ forecasts for a 3.3 per cent contraction, which was the same as the initial estimate.

3.2% wären gut, auf das Jahr gerechnet. Aber...
Zitat:The revised figure translates into an annualised contraction of 12.1 per cent, against the previous reading of a 12.7 per cent contraction, the same size fall forecast by economists.
[...]
The euro zone economy shrank 1.5 per cent in the same period while the United States contracted an annualised 6.2 per cent.

12.1% annualisiert ist alles andere als gut.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aU9GHnz7ClHo&refer=home
Zitat:The funding crunch for Japanese businesses is intensifying as foreign-currency financing dries up, forcing larger firms to turn to the nation’s state policy bank for emergency loans, the head of the lender said.

“Not just automakers, but electrical and chip companies, and also other manufacturers, are coming to us in large numbers,” Hiroshi Watanabe, chief executive officer of the Tokyo-based Japan Bank for International Cooperation, said in a March 10 interview. As part of a government program, the bank is lending to “essentially blue-chip firms that are having trouble with cash flow.”

The bank, known as JBIC, has received requests for emergency loans totaling as much as $40 billion since the end of 2008, almost four times its original budget for the fiscal year that ends March 31, Watanabe said. Companies are struggling with a shortage of foreign-currency funding, he said.


http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?at_code=436656
Zitat:Walk the streets of Myungdong, the famous shopping district in Seoul this winter. There are hundreds of Japanese tourists peering in show windows of fashion boutiques holding piles of shopping bags, Korean sales staff hawking them in perfect Japanese, top Korean restaurants overflowing with Japanese cuisine hunters turning away their loyal Korean customers... You would have been almost transported to middle of Shinjuku, Tokyo.

Seoul has always been a favorite destination for Japanese leisure travelers hunting for a handy weekend trip but cheap Korean won is drawing Japanese visitors in droves to Seoul this winter.

Korean won has dropped to 1,600 won per one 100 yen recently, about 50 percent cheaper than a year ago. Won has unanimously depreciated against US dollar and other major currencies in the wake of global financial crisis but the drop was particularly dramatic against Japanese Yen.


Dank gesunkenem Won und gestiegenem Yen kaufen die Japaner wo? In Korea, anderthalb Flugstunden von zuhause.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/18/20090311/tbs-norway-pension-fund-loses-71-5-bln-e-5268574_1.html
Zitat:Norway's state pension fund, one of the world's biggest investors, lost 71.5 billion euros last year on its portfolio, wiping out nearly a decade of returns, the central bank said on Wednesday.

The central bank said the fund's holdings tumbled 633 billion kroner (71.5 billion euros, 90.5 billion dollars) in value last year as the global financial crisis took a heavy toll.

The negative return of 23.3 percent is the worst result since the fund was created in the early 1990s and wiped out almost all the gains it made in the past decade.


10 Jahre Gewinne, weg in einem Jahr...

http://www.kuna.net.kw/NewsAgenciesPublicSite/ArticleDetails.aspx?id=1979976&Language=en
Polen betteltsucht in Kuweit nach GeldPartnern für die Euro 2012...
Zitat:Poland has 25 billion euro to invest in preparation for co-hosting the Euro 2012 Football Championship, and it is in search for "true partners" to implement these projects, said Polish Minister of Sports and Tourism Miroslaw Drzewiecki on Tuesday.

In an interview with KUNA on the sidelines of his visit, the minister said, "We (Poland) are not looking for funds, but for true partners with whom to implement specific infrastructure development projects in major Polish cities in preparation for hosting the Euro 2012 Football Championship." As to the aim of his visit, he said that it was to boost tourism exchange between the two countries, but "most importantly" to assist in preparations for hosting the championship in 2012 alongside the Ukraine, for which 25 billion euro had been allocated on the Polish side.

Ich würde ja annehmen, daß Polen und die Ukraine andere Probleme haben als Fußballstadien...

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,609705,00.html
Zitat:Die Finanzkrise hat auch das Machtzentrum Russlands erreicht: Präsident Dmitrij Medwedew hat angekündigt, 100 der 1500 Posten im Kreml zu streichen. Aufgrund der massiv einbrechenden Staatseinnahmen müsse die Regierung beim Sparen "bei sich selbst anfangen".

Moskau - Bis Anfang März solle jede Abteilung Vorschläge machen, wo Posten gestrichen und noch weiter gespart werden könne, sagte Natalja Timakowa, Sprecherin von Kremlchef Dmitrij Medwedew, am Dienstag nach Angaben der Agentur Interfax. 100 der insgesamt 1500 Stellen, so die Anweisung des Präsidenten, müsse die Präsidialverwaltung streichen. Bis 2011 sollten zudem die Ausgaben reduziert werden. Genauere Angaben zu den Sparplänen machte die Sprecherin jedoch nicht.


Wie ... antizyklisch?

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL569180620090305
Zitat:Russia banned investment of its $83.7 billion National Wealth Fund in bonds issued by foreign government agencies such as Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N), the Finance Ministry said on Thursday.

The ministry said earlier on Thursday it had also banned investment of its $136.3 billion Reserve Fund in foreign government agencies' bonds.

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/06/russia-says-no-to-the-agencies/
Auch Brad Setser hat etwas dazu geschrieben:

Zitat:
That isn’t exactly news. Those who follow the TIC data closely had little doubt that Russia was reducing its Agency portfolio.

But the fact that Russia explicitly indicated its sovereign fund would shy away from illiquid Agencies is news. It underscores that most sovereign investors — sovereign funds as well as central banks — are shifting into the Treasury market. And it also highlights just how amorphous the distinction between sovereign wealth funds and central bank reserves really is.


Russland: Treasuries/Agency Holdings
Zitat:The only thing we truly know for sure is that Russia had reduced its holdings of short-term Agencies to close to zero by the end of December. And that fact alone suggests Russia was also selling off its portfolio of longer term Agencies.

And while Russia is no doubt an extreme case, it is by no means atypical.


http://www.joc.com/node/410091
Zitat:The First Container Terminal in St. Petersburg, Russia’s biggest box terminal, reported traffic in February plunged 27.3 percent from a year ago as imports collapsed.

The terminal handled 61,301 TEUs in February, taking volume for the first two months of the year to 124,608 TEUs, a drop of 24.7 percent on the same period in 2008.

The decline “is a direct result of the unfolding economic downturn which is affecting Russian importers in every possible way,” said Egor Govorukhin, vice president sales and marketing at National Container Co., the terminal’s owner.


Aber das sind reichlich gute Zahlen, um Vergleich zu dieser hier:
Zitat:NCC’s terminal at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk saw traffic in the first two months fall 12 percent to 20,909 TEUs and its UTC terminal in Ukraine was down 60 percent at 33,148 TEUs.

Allerdings ist das möglicherweise nicht das ganze Ausmaß der Probleme, denn:
Zitat:NCC is performing better than rival terminal operators with its share of the Russian box market rising to 40 percent in January from 28.8 percent in December, Govorukhin said, citing government figures. Russian container traffic totalled around 3.5 million TEUs in 2008.

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/sovenias-economy-falls-off-the-roof-while-slovakia-slides-into-recession/

Slowakei: BIP


Zitat:The Slovak economy slowed further in the fourth quarter of last year with real GDP growing by 2.5 percent year on year. Whole year GDP for 2008 was 6.4 percent with total GDP reaching €67.33 billion. Economic growth had been 6.6 percent in the third quarter, and while there is no official data for seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter growth, I estimate the economy may well have contracted by around 1.5%.


Und damit wären die noch gut bedient, wo doch Exporte um 30% gefallen sind und die Produktion ebenfalls um 30% eingebrochen ist...

Slowakei: Exporte


Zitat:
Part of the problem is the drop in export demand for Slovakia’s car driven economy, and the country posted a trade deficit in January, as drop in demand was made worse by the suspension of gas deliveries from Russia. Exports slumped 29.9 percent on the year in January, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, and the biggest drop at least since 2006 when the statistics office began compiling data under the current methodology. Imports were down 22.4 percent.

The trade deficit totalled 279.5 million euros ($361 million), following a revised deficit of 341.6 million euros in December. Slovakia posted a trade surplus of 42.3 million euros in January 2008.


Slowakei: Industrieproduktion


Zitat:The drop in the demand for exports has obviously hit industrial production which decreased by 27 % year-on-year in January reach the biggest drop since the statistics office began compiling data in 1999. Manufacturing output fell 32,7 %.

Zitat:Slovakia’s government has cut its forecast for economic growth in 2009 to 2.4 percent from 4.6 percent, but this seems very optimistic indeed, and I think it will be hard for the economy not to contract.

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/sovenias-economy-falls-off-the-roof-while-slovakia-slides-into-recession/

Sloweniens BIP


Zitat:
Slovenia’s economy contracted for the first time in more than 15 years in the fourth quarter of 2008, and is almost certainly heading for quite a deep recession as a construction boom came to an end while demand dropped for exports to other economies in the European Union. Gross domestic product shrank 0.8 percent year on year following a revised 3.9 percent expansion in the previous quarter. More astonishingly, quarter on quarter GDP contracted a seasonally adjusted 4.1 percent. Only Estonia and Latvia contracted at a faster rate.

Annualisiert ist das ein gewaltiger Absturz um 16%.

Sloweniens Industrieproduktion


Zitat:Industrial output and exports seem both to be very badly affected, and according to seasonally adjusted data industrial production last December was down by 4.1% over November, while year on year it decreased by 22.1%. Manufacturing output was down by 4.2% on the month and 22.2% year on year.


Sloweniens Bau


Zitat:Construction activity has been very badly hit, and in January 2009 fell by 20.7% on the year. New buildings decreased by 29.8% while civil engineering only fell by 10.2%, reflecting the impact of government counter cyclical spending.


http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/2009/03/gilt-market-explosion.html

UK: Staatsanleihenmarkt


Zitat:The UK government is now building up public sector debt at the fastest rate in peace time. This fiscal year, it intends to borrow almost ₤130 billion. It is extremely likely to borrow a similar amount next year. Moreover, this borrowing doesn't include the ₤1.2 trillion of taxpayer's money that is now on the line, guaranteeing bank assets and recapitalizing the banks.

http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/2009/03/blog-post.html
Graphik: Was britische Banken dem Ausland schulden
Oder: Kapitalflucht aus Großbritannien...

Zitat:Of course, UK banks also own foreign assets. However, the stock of these assets are $633 billion less than the amount of liabilities (we will deal with this issue in a later post). The key point here is that on a net basis; UK banks owe money to people who live overseas.

http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/2009/03/uk-trade-data-exports-down-imports-down.html
UK: Importe und Exporte
Zitat:The ONS also published UK trade data for January. While UK exports didn't fall off a cliff like those in China; a strong downward trade is emerging. Since last summer, export earnings are down 9.6 percent; despite the huge sterling depreciation.

Imports are also down by around 10 percent. Ominously, the UK is doing its bit to reduce Chinese exports.

Interestingly, the UK deficit in goods and services remains broadly unchanged.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1161317/House-prices-drop-55-leave-Britain-bankrupt.html?ref=patrick.net
Zitat:House prices could slump by another 55 per cent, a respected City forecaster warns.

It also predicts a deep recession lasting throughout next year and a 'very real probability' that Britain will go bankrupt.

The report leaked yesterday from financial analysts Numis Securities says that the collapse in house prices is not 'anywhere near over'.

They have already fallen 21 per cent from their peak, but the report says they will slump further by up to 55 per cent if the over-correction in prices is as bad as in the early 1990s.


Liebe Briten: Die Rezession der frühen 90er war nichts im Vergleich zu der, die ihr in den nächsten Jahren durchmachen werdet.

Zitat:But the Numis report is scathing about the Government's response to the recession and warns it may end up needing a 1970s-style bailout from the IMF.

'The bankruptcy of the UK is a very real probability as the UK government is trying to stimulate a greater debt burden in a grossly over-indebted economy,' it says.


http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/2009/03/uk-diving-head-first-into-depression.html
Graphik: Produktionsindex, Großbritannien
Zitat:It just gets uglier. Today, the ONS released January UK production data. The index is down 11.4 percent compared to January 2008.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/JPM-BAC-FRE-FNM-foreclosures-housing/index/a/21590
Zitat:According to RealtyTrac, a firm that sells default data, foreclosure filings rose in February to nearly 300,000, up 6% from the month before. This figure is the third highest for any month since the housing market turned south in 2005.

In fact, Rick Sharga, executive vice president at RealtyTrac, told Bloomberg he believes the country’s biggest lenders have yet to list over 700,000 bank-owned homes.

als wären die 300000 alle aus dem Februar kommenden Zwangsversteigerungen nicht schon schlimm genug, um die Preise weiter nach unten zu treiben: 700000 Immobilien sind noch gar nicht auf dem Markt. Au.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123672707657288607.html

Zitat:One of the houses, a four bedroom built in 2006 that was seized by a lender in a foreclosure action, is listed for sale at $229,900. Meanwhile, in the same housing development, D.R. Horton Inc. is trying to sell a new house that looks nearly identical for $299,000, or 23% more.

Or consider Pulte Homes Inc.'s predicament in Henderson, Nev., near Las Vegas. The builder is trying to sell a new, four-bedroom house for $214,990, while a home owner is trying to dump a similar house, which Pulte built two years ago, for $149,999. That price is less than the owner's mortgage under a "short sale" approved by the lender.

In many markets, "we are no longer competing with other builders. We are competing with foreclosures," said Steve Ruffner, president of the Southern California division of KB Home.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090312/ap_on_bi_ge/foreclosure_rates_3
Um die 300000 mal ins richtige Licht zu rücken:

Zitat:Despite halts on new foreclosures by several major lenders, the number of households threatened with losing their homes rose 30 percent in February from last year's levels, RealtyTrac reported Thursday.

Nationwide, nearly 291,000 homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice last month, up 6 percent from January, according to the Irvine, Calif-based company. While foreclosures are highly concentrated in the Western states and Florida, the problem is spreading to states like Idaho, Illinois and Oregon as the U.S. economy worsens.

Obwohl einige der größere Hypothekengeber derzeit keine Zwangsversteigerungen durchführen, ist deren Zahl in den vergangenen 12 Monaten um 30% gestiegen.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/fed-household-net-worth-cliff-dives-in.html
Die Nettowerte der US-Haushalte im freien Fall:
Zitat:Hit by the double whammy of declining home prices and a falling stock market, U.S. households saw their net worth fall by $11.2 trillion, or 18%, to $51.5 trillion at the end of 2008, wiping out five years of gains ...

USA: Household net worth
CR hat noch ein paar "schöne" Graphiken auf dieser Seite, die zu betrachten sich lohnen könnte: Den Anteil des Eigenkapitals an den hyoothekenbelasteten Häusern, und die Entwicklung der Hauswerte und Hypothekenschulden.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Household-net-worth-plunges-18/story.aspx?guid={7B31D9B5-2D6A-4C46-9154-5FE53946117A}

Zitat:Hit by the double whammy of declining home prices and a falling stock market, U.S. households saw their net worth fall by $11.2 trillion, or 18%, to $51.5 trillion at the end of 2008, wiping out five years of gains, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. In the fourth quarter alone, household net worth fell by $5.1 trillion, a record 31% annualized decline. At the same time that their assets were falling, households were taking on less debt, deleveraging their balance sheets after five years of double-digit growth in debt. In the fourth quarter, households paid off more debt than they took on for the first time since at least 1952.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/retail-sales-some-possible.html

Zitat:This shows that retail sales fell off a cliff in late 2008, but have been stable the last three months.

USA: Einzelhandelsumsatz

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/us-trade-exports-and-imports-decline.html
Zitat:[T]otal January exports of $124.9 billion and imports of $160.9 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $36.0 billion, down from $39.9 billion in December, revised. January exports were $7.6 billion less than December exports of $132.5 billion. January imports were $11.5 billion less than December imports of $172.4 billion..

USA: Importe und Exporte im Januar 2009

Zitat:The graph includes both goods and services. The import and export of services has held up pretty well; most of the collapse in trade has been in goods. Imports of goods has declined by one third from the peak of last July!

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/la-port-import-traffic-collapses-in.html
Zitat:Earlier today the Census Bureau reported that both imports and exports continued to decline in January. But February is looking even worse.

USA: Hafen Los Angeles im Februar 2009
Zitat von none:This graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the port of Los Angeles in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Inbound traffic was 35% below last February and 35% below last month.

The Port of Los Angeles put up a special message explaining the collapse:
[in]
Contributing factors:

  • Continued worldwide economic crisis contributing to a decline in trade volumes.
  • Consumer sales are down due to high unemployment rates.
  • 15 less vessel calls this February due to this decline and the consolidation of services in order to fill up the existing services.
  • Chinese factories closed for an extended periods of time (beyond the normal time period) for Chinese New Year.
  • Due to the lack of volume and Chinese New Year, Maersk 6700 TEU/week vessel did not make any calls in LA during the month of February (which is traditionally a low volume month).
  • Anticipate this year’s volumes will continue to be below last year’s volumes because sales are still slow with most economists predicting there will not be any recovery before the second half of the year.

[/in]
We have to be careful because of the impact of the Chinese New Year on trade, but it does appear trade collapsed in February.

http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2009/03_WTR/030509_Traffic.aspx
Zitat:Rail freight traffic throughout North America was off sharply during February, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported today.

U.S. rail carload traffic in February 2009 fell 14.5 percent (188,487 carloads) compared to February 2008 to 1,109,035 carloads, the AAR said. U.S. rail intermodal traffic (which is not included in carloads) fell 18.7 percent (167,608 trailers and containers) to 726,343 units in February.


http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2009/03_WTR/031209_Traffic.aspx
Zitat:Freight traffic on U.S. railroads during the first week of March remained down in comparison with a year ago, the Association of American Railroads reported today.

U.S carload freight totaled 275,105 cars, down 15.0 percent from the comparison week in 2008, with loadings down 11.9 percent in the West and 19.5 percent in the East.

Intermodal volume of 180,047 trailers or containers was off 12.7 percent from last year, with container volume falling 6.0 percent and trailer volume dropping 34.0 percent.


2009-02: -14.5% bzw. -18.7% gegenüber 2008-02.
2009-03-W1: -15,0% bzw. -12.7% gegenüber 2008-03-W1.
Bodenbildung bei -15%? Jedenfalls sieht das schon deutlich positiver aus als USA: Eisenbahntransporte / 3 Wochen im Januar 2009.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/02/24/picked_the_wron.html
Den Amerikanern geht's so schlecht, daß sie noch nicht mal Geld für Alkohol haben:
Graphik: US-Alkohol-Konsum versus allgemeinem Konsum

http://www.creditflux.com/Distressed/2009-03-12/Cumulative-high-yield-defaults-could-hit-50-says-Goldman-Sachs
Goldman Sachs über den Junk-Markt:
Zitat:In a research report published last week, Goldman Sachs increased its default projections and decreased its forecast recovery rates. It says it expects the 12-month trailing high-yield default rate to hit 13.9% by the end of this year and to peak at 14% in the second quarter of 2010. Five-year cumulative defaults will reach 45.8% by the end of 2013, according to the report.

However, the analysts add that a deeper recession could push annual defaults to 17% and the cumulative five-year default rate to 50.8%.

Goldman expects recovery rates to fall to 12.5% by the end of 2009, implying five-year cumulative losses of 37%, or as much as 44.7% in the firm's deep recession scenario.


Goldman Sachs sagt also klar und deutlich "Finger weg von Schrottanleihen" (warum denke ich gerade an Infineon?).

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Budget-deficit-widens-10-receipts/story.aspx?guid={E595148D-3756-4F39-A1A6-773ABA0039A8}
Zitat:The U.S. federal government budget widened to $192.8 billion in February as tax receipts plunged to the lowest level in 14 years, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday. It's the second largest monthly deficit on record, exceeded only by $237.2 billion gap in October. For the first five months of the fiscal year, the deficit has increased by a half trillion dollars to a record $764.5 billion. Outlays were flat compared with a year earlier at $280.1 billion, while receipts dropped 17% to $87.3 billion, the lowest since February 1995. In February, individual income taxes fell 64% to just $8.7 billion. That's the lowest monthly total for individual income taxes since May 1985

Wenn ich richtig verstehe, was in dem Fall einfach nicht sein darf, haben die USA im Februar Steuereinnahmen von 87.3 Mrd. Dollar gehabt und 280 Mrd ausgegeben.

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2009/0316/080_harvard_finance_meltdown.html
Forbes hat eine Geschichte über den Absturz des Harvard-Fonds:
Zitat:Behind the scenes, though, a different story was unfolding. In a glassed-walled conference room overlooking downtown Boston, traders at Harvard Management Co., the subsidiary that invests the school's money, were fielding questions from their new boss, Jane Mendillo, about exotic financial instruments that were suddenly backfiring. Harvard had derivatives that gave it exposure to $7.2 billion in commodities and foreign stocks. With prices of both crashing, the university was getting margin calls--demands from counterparties (among them, jpmorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs) for more collateral. Another bunch of derivatives burdened Harvard with a multibillion-dollar bet on interest rates that went against it.

It would have been nice to have cash on hand to meet margin calls, but Harvard had next to none. That was because these supremely self-confident money managers were more than fully invested. Ss of June 30 they had, thanks to the fancy derivatives, a 105% long position in risky assets. The effect is akin to putting every last dollar of your portfolio to work and then borrowing another 5% to buy more stocks.

Desperate for cash, Harvard Management went to outside money managers begging for a return of money it had expected to keep parked away for a long time. It tried to sell off illiquid stakes in private equity partnerships but couldn't get a decent price. It unloaded two-thirds of a $2.9 billion stock portfolio into a falling market. And now, in the last phase of the cash-raising panic, the university is borrowing money, much like a homeowner who takes out a second mortgage in order to pay off credit card bills. Since December Harvard has raised $2.5 billion by selling IOUs in the bond market. Roughly a third of these Harvard bonds are tax exempt and carry interest rates of 3.2% to 5.8%. The rest are taxable, with rates of 5% to 6.5%.

It doesn't feel good to be borrowing at 6% while holding assets with negative returns. Harvard has oversize positions in emerging market stocks and private equity partnerships, both disaster areas in the past eight months. The one category that has done well since last June is conventional Treasury bonds, and Harvard appears to have owned little of these. As of its last public disclosure on this score, it had a modest 16% allocation to fixed income, consisting of 7% in inflation-indexed bonds, 4% in corporates and the rest in high-yield and foreign debt.


Die sind in nahezu jede Falle gegangen, die es gegeben hat.

Und dann war da noch das Personal: Der Chef des Fonds verließ den Laden 2005:

Zitat:By September 2005 Meyer himself decided it was time to go. Some people say it was because of the persistent criticism about bonuses, which were reduced near the end of his tenure; others say he had run-ins with former U.S. Treasury secretaries Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin, who assumed Harvard leadership positions at the start of the decade. Meyer denies both reasons and says 16 years at Harvard was simply enough.

Meyer formed his own hedge fund, Convexity Capital, which seems to have held up well in the current market. He took with him the Harvard heads of domestic and international fixed income, and both their staffs, as well as the chief risk officer, chief technology officer and chief operating officer. The survivors were demoralized. "You walked onto the trading floor, and it was just 10% full," says someone who was there at the time. "There was a sense that if you were good, you left."


und nahm reichlich viele Leute in Leitungspositionen mit.

Der nächste kam:

Zitat:Five months later Mohamed El-Erian, now 50, took over. The son of an Egyptian diplomat, he had risen to deputy director of the International Monetary Fund before joining giant bond manager Pimco. He seemed perfect for smoothing relations between HMC and the university. Filling the hole that Meyer left was another matter.
[...]He talked of the "structural advantages" of investing a big endowment backed by an AAA-rated university, such as allowing you to borrow at low rates when making leveraged bets. The former Pimco emerging market superstar also believed that the developing countries offered big profits to smart investors like HMC because they had become less risky thanks to ample dollar reserves and a growing middle class.

So El-Erian upped HMC's exposure to emerging market stocks, which rose from 6% of assets when Meyer left to 11% two years later. He also used total return swaps to bet on developed world stocks and commodities on the cheap, freeing up money for other investments. Tapping former Stanford endowment staffer Mark Taborsky (an "important hire," El-Erian would later write in a book), El-Erian also took money from hedge funds he didn't like and redirected it to ones he thought were winners, putting hundreds of millions into funds in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East.

It's unclear how much of the results--good or otherwise--were El-Erian's doing. He left at the end of 2007, six months before the results came in[...]


Und dann dauerte es 6 Monate bis zur Nachfolgerin:
Zitat:Since July emerging market shares have been a disaster, falling 50%, as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, worse than U.S. stocks. Another problem: El-Erian's insurance has been partly taken off since he left, leaving HMC vulnerable when markets plunged this fall. The total return swaps, which easily could have been terminated, were left alone. The EFG-Hermes Middle East North Africa Opportunities Fund, a hedge fund launched in September 2007 with some $200 million of HMC cash, was down 35% in 2008. El-Erian's big hire, Taborsky, left HMC in September. He's since joined El-Erian at Pimco. El-Erian and Taborsky decline to comment.

By the time Jane Mendillo walked into HMC's offices in July 2008, she figured some changes needed to be made. A former consultant who worked for years at HMC under Meyer, Mendillo got the HMC gig partly as a result of Meyer's recommendation. She had spent the last six years running the $1.6 billion Wellesley College endowment, which was completely outsourced to external managers. Her detractors say that she was ill prepared for Harvard's liquidity crisis and slow to take cognizance of the swap exposure. But they concede that the crisis came fast on the heels of her arrival.


Interessantes Timing: die neue Chefin kommt nach einem halben führungslosen Jahr _mitten während der Krise_.

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/03/to-the-victor-go-the-spoils-who-answers-the-phone-in-the-us-treasury/
Willem Buiter über den derzeitgen Zustand der US-Regierung:
Zitat:Since the Obama administration took over on January 20, the US Treasury has effectively been out to lunch. As widely reported (see e.g. this account in the Financial Times), Sir Gus O’Donnell (as cabinet secretary the top UK civil servant) has attacked the “absolute madness’ of the US spoils system, where a new Federal administration replaces the entire top stratum of the civil service with new officials possessing the right political connections and leanings. Quite a few of these top officials need to be confirmed before they can start working. This can take months. Many of the new officials have no political, government or administrative experience and spend most of their first months in office trying to figure out where the washroom is instead of designing and implementing policy.

It is a system designed to produce protracted policy paralysis. Often this does not matter much. It may even be helpful to the greater good at times - “That government is best which governs least.” - but in times of war and deep economic crisis, when the world we thought we knew may be falling apart, it is not a bad idea to have a government that can both think and act. The current US administration neither thinks nor acts much, judging from the results.


Oder anders gesagt: Fast 2 Monate nach der Regierungsübernahme sind die USA noch nicht handlungsfähig.
B
Zitat:ut the fact that the economic plans of the administration are only half worked out is due to the fact that, except for the Treasury Secretary himself, the entire top of the Treasury is vacant. it is even possible that Geithner has to make his own coffee, a task normally delegated to a Deputy Secretary. This is an insane situation that no self-respecting country should allow to continue.
Sicherlich etwas stark pointiert, aber treffend.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AmEx-paying-card-holders-to-rb-14442536.html
Erst konnten sie nicht genug Kunden haben... und jetzt wollen sie sie loswerden:
Zitat:American Express Co (NYSE:AXP - News), battered by mounting credit card losses, is offering $300 to a limited number of U.S. card holders who pay off their balances and close their accounts, the company said on Monday.

Card holders have until the end of February to accept the offer and must close their accounts in March or April. Each card holder will receive a $300 pre-paid American Express card.


Ich würde ja vermuten, daß die Leute, die man loswerden will, ausgerechnet die sind, die es sich nicht leisten können, eine Kreditkarte abzugeben...

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/02/24/comparing_bank.html
Tier1 und "tangible common equity" für US-Banken - zwei Arten, die Eigenkapitalquote zu messen:
Graphik: Tier1/TCE für US-Banken

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS187680+11-Mar-2009+PRN20090311
Zitat:A Watson Wyatt analysis of pension disclosures for the 100 largest U.S. pension sponsors* has found that aggregate funding fell by $303 billion last year, going from an $86 billion surplus at the end of 2007 to a $217 billion deficit at the end of 2008. Overall, aggregate funding levels decreased by 30 percentage points, from 109 percent funded at the end of 2007 to 79 percent funded by the end of 2008.

Und damit sind die Pensionen nur noch zu 79% gedeckt.

Wodurch das zustande kam? Aktieninvestitionen:

Zitat:Pension plan assets declined by 26 percent in 2008, largely due to significant equity losses. The percentage of a plan's portfolio invested in equities had a direct relationship with investment losses in 2008 -- plans that had less than 20 percent of their portfolio in equities lost an average of 6 percent, while those with an equity allocation of 55 percent to 59.9 percent lost 23.6 percent. Those with an equity allocation of 90 percent or more lost 32.3 percent.

Werden die US-Pensionsfonds vorsichtiger werden?
Zitat:While stated equity targets have not declined significantly, actual equity
allocations at year end were much lower. For the 83 companies that provided
data, the average target equity allocation is 55 percent for 2009, compared
with 58 percent for 2008. However, actual equity allocations fell over the
year, to 48 percent at the end of 2008 from 59 percent the year before. Rather
than a strategy shift, this reallocation was mostly due to the significant
drop in the stock market -- bonds significantly outperformed equities, thereby
automatically shifting funds' asset distribution. It remains to be seen
whether plans will redress this imbalance.

Vielleicht...

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS184784+11-Mar-2009+PRN20090311
Zitat:Milliman, Inc., one of the premier global consulting and actuarial firms, today released the latest update to the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index, which consists of 100 of the nation's largest defined benefit pension plans. In February, pensions lost another $54 billion in assets. These losses were offset by liability decreases of roughly $21 billion, resulting in a net loss of $33 billion in funding status for the month. In the last year alone, the funding ratio for these pensions has fallen from 99.6% to 71.7%.

Februar 2009: US-Pensionsfonds verlieren weiter.

Laut http://www.milliman.com/expertise/employee-benefits/products-tools/pension-funding-study/pdfs/PFI-02-12-09.pdf sind auch im Januar Verlust von 49 Mrd. Dollar angefallen.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/721c3772-0ea7-11de-b099-0000779fd2ac.html
Zitat:Freddie Mac said on Wednesday that a $23.9bn fourth-quarter loss would require it to draw down $30.8bn of capital from the US Treasury, but warned that it would face difficulties paying the government back.
Das ist entweder dreist oder verzweifelt Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht
Zitat:The latest capital infusion will bring the government's stake in Freddie Mac to $45.6bn of senior preferred stock, which pays a dividend of 10 per cent a year. Freddie said its ability to pay the government was limited, noting that it would owe $4.6bn in dividends annually - more than it has earned in most previous years.

Warum bekommt eigentlich AIG mittlerweile bessere Konditionen als Freddie Mac?

Zitat:Freddie tapped the Treasury for $13bn last year, and Fannie said last month it would draw $15bn of assistance from the Treasury after a $25.2bn fourth-quarter loss drove its net worth below zero.

Freddie said yesterday it was likely to record "significant losses" in future periods, which would lead it to require additional funds from the Treasury amid deteriorating economic conditions.


"Nettowert unter Null". Zukunft nicht besser.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE51Q3LB20090227?sp=true
Zitat:Drawn by payments of up to $10,000, an increasing number of women are offering to sell their eggs at U.S. fertility clinics as a way to make money amid the financial crisis.
[...]
Fertility organizations across the country said there had been a growing interest. The Center for Egg Options in Illinois has seen a 40 percent increase in egg donor inquiries since the start of 2008.

New York City's Northeast Assisted Fertility Group said interest had doubled and the Colorado Center for Reproductive Medicine said it had received 10 percent more inquiries


Im November war das Wachstum der Eispenden noch bei etwa 30% (Baby business).

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1881070,00.html
Die kalifornischen Farmen, die am Wasserversorgungssystem des Bundes hängen, werden demnächst für mindestens 2 Wochen kein Wasser bekommen:
Zitat:Federal water managers said Friday that they plan to cut off water, at least temporarily, to thousands of California farms as a result of the deepening drought gripping the state.

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation officials said parched reservoirs and patchy rainfall this year were forcing them to completely stop surface water deliveries for at least a two-week period beginning March 1. Authorities said they haven't had to take such a drastic move for more than 15 years.


Naja, wozu braucht man im März schon Wasser? Wer würde da etwas anpflanzen wollen?

Besser geht's den Farmen, die vom kalifornischen Staat Wasser bekommen:

Zitat:Farms supplied by flows from the state's system of pumps and canals would also see cutbacks but still get 15 percent of their normal deliveries, Snow said.

Die bekommen immerhin noch eine Tasse Wasser für jeden Liter, den sie sonst bekommen hätte - was wohl de fakto heißt, daß sie wenigstens noch genug Wasser bekommen, um Tränen vergießen zu können.

http://www.ftd.de/politik/international/:Schutz-der-Armen-Ch%E1vez-enteignet-US-Reisfabrik/482914.html
Zitat:In Venezuela hat der linksgerichtete Staatschef Hugo Chávez am Mittwoch per Dekret die Enteignung einer amerikanischen Reisfabrik verfügt. Die Fabrik, die dem US- Lebensmittelkonzern Cargill gehört, habe sich nicht an die von der Regierung in Caracas verfügte Preisbindung gehalten, hieß es zur Begründung.
[...]
Präsident Chávez hat für eine Reihe von Grundnahrungsmitteln Festpreise und ein Quotensystem eingeführt. Damit sollen die Lebenshaltungskosten angesichts der steigenden Inflationsrate begrenzt werden. Wegen der sich zuspitzenden Versorgungslage in Venezuela hatte Chávez am vergangenen Wochenende die Besetzung von privaten Reisfabriken durch die Streitkräfte angeordnet. Zur Begründung gab er an, das Volk und vor allem die Armen schützen zu wollen.

Die Verordnung der Festpreise hab' ich wohl übersehen gehabt. Aber wieso eine solche Maßnahme gegen Inflation helfen sollte und nicht einfach dem Schwarzmarkt, erschließt sich mir eh' nicht.
Die heutigen Geldmengen visualisiert das sehr schön - der kleine rote Fleck ist ein Mensch, und auf den Paletten sind Scheine zu einem Wert von 100 Dollar. Insgesamt sind das 1000 Milliarden Dollar.

Graphik: 1000 Mrd. Dollar

Quelle

Gruß, Uwe

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