Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2009-02-02 22:59:16
Ausgabe 80
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Lucy Kellaway von der FT schreibt:

Zitat:The day after I read about the begging woman I was sent something even more upsetting. A banker at Commerzbank e-mailed me to say that he and 499 other senior colleagues had just been summoned to the bank’s headquarters and told to write their ideas on A4 pieces of paper and stick them on the plastic branches of a tree.

In good times I used to delight in stories like these. Aren’t people silly, I used to think with a complacent air of superiority. But now my thinking is different: if banks’ response to the current crisis is to stick bits of paper on fake trees, then the only rational thing for the rest of us to do is to surrender ourselves to panic.


Ebenso gute Gründe für Panik wären das Gerate um Nutzen/Gefahr von Bad Banks, Stimuli, Protektion, Subventionen (-swettläufen) oder die Streiterei um Schuld und Unschuld an der Krise.

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23156017-1702,00.html
Im Pazifik schwimmt eine große Menge Plastikmüll - größer als die USA.

Zitat:"It is endless for an area that is maybe twice the size as continental United States," he says.

Moore, an oceanographer who has made the study of the patch his full-time occupation, believes there is about 100 million tonnes of plastic circulating in the northern Pacific - or about 2.5 per cent of all plastic items made since 1950.

About 20 per cent of the junk is thought to come from marine craft, while the rest originates from countries around the Pacific like Mexico and China.


Naja, was sind schon 100 Mio. Tonnen? In PET-Mehrweg-Literflaschen (70 Gramm pro Flasche, etwa 14000 Flaschen pro Tonne) umgerechnet:

Zitat von none:100 Mio. Tonnen = 100 Mio * 14000 Flaschen
Je Flasche 30cm: 100 Mio * 14000 * 0.3 = 100 Mio. * 4200 Meter.
Macht: 420 Mio Kilometer.
Damit könnten wir fast die halbe Erdumlaufbahn (um die Sonne, 940 Mio Kilometer) auslegen.

Oder, wenn wir typische nicht recyclebare Flaschen (25cm, 30 Gramm) nehmen, kommen wir damit schon 825 Mio Kilometer weit - das reicht von der Sonne bis hinter den Jupiter.

Ist also kein Problem von kosmischer Bedeutung - auf Alpha Centauri ist man sicher vor unserem Müll...

Zitat:Historically, flotsam in the gyres has biodegraded. But modern plastics do not break down like other oceanic debris, meaning objects half a century old have been found in the North Pacific Gyre.

Instead the plastic slowly photodegrades, becoming brittle and disintegrating into smaller and smaller pieces which enter the food chain and end up in the stomachs of birds and other animals.


Yeah, und das ist das Hauptproblem: Das Zeug zersetzt sich nicht.
Zitat:Because the plastic is translucent and lies just beneath the surface, it is apparently undetectable by satellite photos.

"It is not like going to a parking lot after a rugby match. It is not like a landfill," he says.

"The material is breaking down continually. It is photodegrading all the time. It is what I call a kaleidoscope or an alphabet soup. You won't see it from a satellite shot of the ocean. You only see it from the bows of ships," he says.


Man erinnert sich vielleicht noch an Climate scientists: it's time for 'Plan B'? Dieser Vorschlag daraus..
Zitat:Mixing the deep water of the ocean

The Earth scientist James Lovelock, working with Chris Rapley of the Science Museum in London, devised a plan to put giant tubes into the seas to take surface water rich in dissolved CO2 to lower depths where it will not surface. The idea is to take CO2 out of the short-term carbon cycle, cutting the gas in the atmosphere. Critics say it may bring carbon locked away in the deep ocean to the surface.


... hat gewisse Risiken.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7860350.stm

Zitat:* The oceans are thought to have absorbed about half of the extra CO2 put into the atmosphere in the industrial age
* This has lowered its pH by 0.1
* pH is the measure of acidity and alkalinity
* The vast majority of liquids lie between pH 0 (very acidic) and pH 14 (very alkaline); 7 is neutral
Seawater is mildly alkaline with a "natural" pH of about 8.2

Mögliche Folgen?
Zitat:The researchers warn that ocean acidification, which they refer to as "the other CO2 problem", could make most regions of the ocean inhospitable to coral reefs by 2050, if atmospheric CO2 levels continue to increase.

The also say that it could lead to substantial changes in commercial fish stocks, threatening food security for millions of people


Weniger oder vielleicht auch keine Korallenriffe mehr, und nicht nur dadurch auch Auswirkungen auf den Fischfang...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7845173.stm
Piraterie ist gut für die Bewohner der Meere:
Zitat:Piracy off Somalia's coast is a cause of falls in tuna catches in the Indian Ocean - one of the world's richest sources of the fish, experts say.

The head of the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission, Alejandro Anganuzzi, said catches fell by about 30% last year, seriously affecting the industry.


Und das kann man durchaus für eine positive Nachricht halten - die Thunfischbestände wachsen nämlich deutlich negativ.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/02/business/economy/02value.html?_r=1
Zitat:The financial institution that owns the bond calculates the value at 97 cents on the dollar, or a mere 3 percent loss. But S.& P. estimates it is worth 87 cents, based on the current loan-default rate, and could be worth 53 cents under a bleaker situation that contemplates a doubling of defaults. But even that might be optimistic, because the bond traded recently for just 38 cents on the dollar, reflecting the even gloomier outlook of investors.

Der Besitzer hat das Zeug zu 97% vom Nennwert in den Büchern.
S&P bewertet es mit 87% vom Nennwert unter den gegebenen Umständen, und mit 53% bei doppelt so hohen Ausfallraten.
Auf dem Markt wird es mit 38% gehandelt.

Grobanalyse: S&P ist von der Realität ein ganzes Stück weit weg, und irgendjemand hat einen fürchterlich hohen Abschreibungsbedarf.
Und was ist es:

Zitat:The bond is backed by 9,000 second mortgages used by borrowers who put down little or no money to buy homes. Nearly a quarter of the loans are delinquent, and losses on defaulted mortgages are averaging 40 percent. The security once had a top rating, triple-A.

Toxischer AAA-Hypothekenmüll der schlimmsten Sorte ("little or no money").

Nachtrag:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/02/ny-times-example-of-toxic-asset.html
Calculated Risk schreibt dazu:

Zitat:
To be worth even 38 cents on the dollar, this must be a senior tranche. The lower tranches have absorbed most of the losses so far, and that is why S&P is currently valuing the bond at 87 cents on the dollar, but any higher default assumptions, and the value of this bond will plummet. I'm amazed, given that these are no money down 2nds that the loss severity is only 40 percent.

But this illustrates the problem. If the bank marks the bond to market (38 cents), they will have to take huge losses. But if the government even pays the current S&P estimated value, the bank will have to write the bond down further, and the taxpayers will probably take huge losses too. Unless a bank has been very aggressive with their write downs, buying the toxic assets doesn't help - or is a gift from taxpayers to shareholders.


Das wäre übrigens ein Grund für die Deutsche Bank, mit ihren Abschreibungen möglichst lange zu warten: Eine Bad Bank würde eventuell für nicht abgeschriebene Sachen mehr zahlen...

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/02/yes-we-can-have-a-global-depression-if-we-really-contintue-to-work-at-it/
Willem Buiter wird pessimistisch - in einem relativ langem Artikel.
Zitat:I used to be optimistic about the capacity of our political leaders and central bankers to avoid the policy mistakes that could turn the current global recession into a deep and lasting global depression. Now I’m not so sure.

Das Warum, in Auszügen:
Zitat:I used to believe that the unavoidable protectionist and mercantilist rhetoric would not be matched by protectionist and mercantilist deeds. Protectionism was one of the factors that turned a US financial crisis into a global depression in the 1930s.

Zitat:I used to believe that our central bankers would overcome their natural conservatism, caution and timidity to do what it takes to bring to bear the full measure of what the central bank can deliver on a disfunctional financial sector and on a depressed economy, at risk of deflation. Now I’m not so sure.

Zitat:I used to believe that our fiscal policy makers would, when faced with a combination of national and global disaster, manage to come up with a set of national fiscal packages that would be modulated according to national fiscal spare capacity and that would be designed not only to boost domestic and global demand but also to eliminate or at any rate reduce the underlying global imbalances that are an important part of the story of this global crisis.

Ich teile das grundlegende Gefühl dahinter: Zunehmende nationale Alleingänge, zunehmender Protektionismus und Gegenprotektionismus, und insgesamt gesehen diverse im Grunde vollkommen widersinnige "Problemlösungen", die Zeit herausschinden um den Preis, erst mal Schwächere in den Abgrund zu treiben.

Zitat von Fazit:We can go down in history as the generation that created the Great Depression of the Noughties. Just keep on beating the protectionist drums. Keep on the footdragging that prevents effective qualitative and quantitative monetary policy easing in the Eurozone and the UK. And go ahead with unsustainable fiscal stimuli in the US, the UK and elsewhere that will spook markets, push up long-term interest rates and raise the spectre of sovereign default by countries not belonging to the group of usual suspects. Yes we can! I hope we won’t.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/30/51895/spot-the-odd-one-out/
Bankverbindlichkeiten der Eurozonen/G10-Länder, im Vergleich zum jeweiligen BIP, laut Dresdener:
Graphik
Das kann einen schon etwas ins Grübeln bringen.

http://www.mbmclub.com/auto/newsdesk/20090023171024mbmnews.html
Die Häfen in Großbritannien füllen sich:
Zitat:Harbours and anchorages in several parts of the country are filling up with surplus ships as owners lay-up their vessels.

The lay-up area at King Harry Ferry on the River Fal is already so full of dormant ships that Carrick harbourmaster Andy Brigden has had to reject a request to accommodate a further fleet of seven vessels. Southampton, meanwhile, has become the temporary home of four large ships totalling over 300,000 tonnes, and it is reported that additional moorings will be laid to accommodate further arrivals.


Und das wird noch mehr werden:
http://www.seatradeasia-online.com/News/3626.html
Zitat:Since the week before Christmas - just one month ago - the number of ships idling has grown by 90 or 255,000 teu.
Worse is to come. Alphaliner estimates that new build deliveries in 2009 will represent 14% of the current fleet. Another 12% will join in 2010. Despite continued scrapping, the weak demand trends will fall well short of absorbing this net new capacity. Compounding the problem, as pointed out by Alphaliner, is that current bunker prices are reaching the point where the popular coping practice of "slow steaming" becomes uneconomical. In short, the idle fleet will expand considerably.

http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2009-01-29-01.htm
Die IATA hat die Zahlen zum Luftverkehr 2008 veröffentlicht - und sie sind schlecht.
Zitat:In the month of December global international cargo traffic plummeted by 22.6% compared to December 2007. The same comparison for international passenger traffic showed a 4.6% drop. The international load factor stood at 73.8%.

For the full-year 2008, international cargo traffic was down 4.0%, passenger traffic showed a modest increase of 1.6%, and the international load factor stood at 75.9%.

Frachtverkehr 2008:      -4.0%
Frachtverkehr 2008-12: -22.6%
Personenverkehr 2008: +1.6%
Personenverkehr 2008-12: -4.6%

Zitat:“The 22.6% free fall in global cargo is unprecedented and shocking. There is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade. Even in September 2001, when much of the global fleet was grounded, the decline was only 13.9%,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.” Air cargo carries 35% of the value of goods traded internationally.

Freier Fall, in der Tat.

http://econompicdata.blogspot.com/2009/01/cargo-plane-traffic-crash.html
Econompicdata hat das graphisch umgesetzt:
Graphik: Lufttransportcrash


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/02/51932/aerospace-datapoint-du-jour/
Zitat:From Ryanair’s third-quarter results. (FT Alphaville’s calculations).
Proceeds from sales of Boeing 737-800 in Q3 2008 - €26.5m each. (Five aircraft sold for roughly €132.6m)

Proceeds from sales of Boeing 737-800 in Q3 2009 - €21.2m each. (Eight aircraft sold for roughly €169.6m).


20% weniger pro Maschine.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJ3g1_adg13s
Zitat:Australian manufacturing contracted for an eighth month in January as companies received fewer orders and fired workers.

The performance of manufacturing index rose 2.9 points to 36.6 from December, the Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers said in a report released in Canberra today. A reading below 50 signals manufacturing is shrinking.


36.6 ist sicherlich besser als 33.7, aber "contracted for an eigth month" ist der entscheidende Satz.
Zitat:Manufacturing accounts for 10 percent of gross domestic product and employs one tenth of the workforce. Australia’s jobless rate rose to a two-year high of 4.5 percent in December.

sicherlich auch wegen des Rohstoffsektors.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19c25aea-f0f5-11dd-8790-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:More than 20m rural migrant workers in China have lost their jobs and returned to their home villages or towns as a result of the global economic crisis, government figures revealed on Monday.
By the start of the Chinese new year festival on January 25, 15.3 per cent of China’s 130m migrant workers had lost their jobs and left coastal manufacturing centres to return home, said officials quoting a survey from the agriculture ministry.

Mehr als 20 Mio. chinesische Wanderarbeiter haben ihre Jobs verloren und sind in ihre Heimat zurückgekehrt... und das ist noch nicht alles:
Zitat:The figure of 20m unemployed migrants does not include those who have stayed in cities to look for work after being made redundant and is substantially higher than the figure of 12m that Wen Jiabao, premier, gave to the Financial Times in an interview on Sunday. Speaking on a visit to the UK on Monday, Mr Wen said there had been signs at the end of last year the Chinese economy might be starting to recover.

denn diese 20 Mio. enthielten nicht diejenigen, die zwar ihren Job verloren haben, aber am Ort geblieben sind um einen Neuen zu suchen.

Zitat:In the past decade, 6m-7m rural migrant workers a year have left the countryside to man the factories, construction sites and restaurants of booming cities.

Man könnte auf den Gedanken kommen, daß die Krise bisher _mindestens_ die Jobs vernichtet hat, die in drei Jahren geschaffen worden.

Das ist, gelinde gesagt, katastrophal.


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5627687.ece
Zitat:Bankruptcies, unemployment and social unrest are spreading more widely in China than officially reported, according to independent research that paints an ominous picture for the world economy.

The research was conducted for The Sunday Times over the last two months in three provinces vital to Chinese trade – Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. It found that the global economic crisis has scythed through exports and set off dozens of protests that are never mentioned by the state media.


Eines ist mir ja etwas unklar: Ein Unterdrückungsregime wie das in China müßte doch eigentlich wissen, daß man solche Forschungen nicht durchführen läßt, oder?

Der Artikel zählt ein halbes Dutzend (kleinerer) Unruhen auf, und zeigt dann noch auf, daß die Regierung den Sinn für Prioritäten nicht ganz verloren hat, und sich um einen Rechtsanwalt von Migranten kümmert, wie man das erwarten würde:

Zitat:A legal advocate for migrant workers, Xiao Qingshan, told a tale of violent intimidation by the state in collusion with unscrupulous businessmen.

On January 9, Xiao said, 14 security officers from the local labour bureau broke into his office, confiscated 600 legal case files, 160 law books, his computer, his photocopier, his television set and 100,000 yuan in cash.

“That evening I was ambushed near the office by five strangers who forced a black bag over my head and then threw me into a shallow polluted canal,” he said. His landlord has since given him notice to quit his rented home.

Xiao said he was defying bribery and threats to speak to the foreign media because he wants international businesses to know what is really happening in “the workshop of the world”.

http://www.ftd.de/politik/international/:Sorge-vor-Unruhen-Peking-bringt-Milit%E4r-auf-Linie/468889.html

Zitat:Angesichts steigender Arbeitslosenzahlen und einer rapide schrumpfenden Wirtschaftsleistung fürchtet China offenbar Proteste aus der Bevölkerung: Das Militär wurde auf absoluten Gehorsam eingeschworen, der Prozess gegen einen Dissidenten beginnt im Eilverfahren.

Unter dem Eindruck wachsender Unzufriedenheit in der Bevölkerung hat China sein Militär zu absolutem Gehorsam gegenüber der Kommunistischen Partei aufgefordert. Die Forderung wurde bei einem Treffen der zentralen Militärkommission unter Leitung von Präsident Hu Jintao formuliert. Nach einem Bericht der amtlichen Nachrichtenagentur Xinhua trifft die chinesische Verteidigungspolitik auf "komplizierte Veränderungen im internationalen und heimischen Umfeld."


Die Frage ist jetzt nur noch, wann das Regime die Maske endgültig fallen läßt.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7863290.stm
Zitat:A senior family planning official in China has noted an alarming rise in the number of babies with birth defects, a Chinese media report says.
[...]
The coal-mining heartland of Shanxi province had the biggest problem.
[...]
A 2007 commission report said the rate of defects had risen 40% since 2001, from 104.9 per 10,000 births to 145.5 in 2006.

Officials blame emissions from Shanxi's large coal and chemical industry for the problems there.


Na, wer hätte das erwartet?

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:Erster-R%FCckgang-seit-sieben-Jahren-Deutschen-Werften-brechen-Auftr%E4ge-weg/469137.html
Zitat:Die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise hat zu einem drastischen Auftragseinbruch bei den deutschen Werften geführt: Im vergangenen Jahr seien nicht nur die Auftragseingänge auf 46 Bestellungen im Wert von 2,9 Mrd. Euro und damit auf den niedrigsten Stand seit 2001 gefallen, teilte der Verband für Schiffbau und Meerestechnik (VSM) am Montag in Hamburg mit. Darüber hinaus wurden 29 vorhandene Aufträge storniert. Der Auftragsbestand zum Jahresende entwickelte sich damit zum ersten Mal seit sieben Jahren rückläufig.

Mit 172 (Vorjahr: 239) Aufträgen im Wert von 13,3 (15,4) Mrd. Euro sei die Beschäftigung der Werften rechnerisch nur noch für weniger als drei Jahre gesichert, teilte der Verband mit. Hinzu komme, dass wegen der Krise die Finanzierung von 29 Schiffen aus dem Auftragsbestand wackelt.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/02/02/51941/shakeout-in-dubai/
Moody's über Dubai:
Zitat:While Dubai’s economy is more diversified than regional rating peers, it is dependent on cyclical sectors such as real estate, tourism, trade, and financial services. All of these are being adversely affected by the tougher external environment. Furthermore, given its close linkages with regional oil exporters, Dubai’s economy has been affected indirectly by the slump in international oil prices even though oil generates only a small portion of the emirate’s GDP directly. Moody’s continues to believe that the Dubai government is very willing to support the large and systemically important companies that it owns, should it be required. However, the government’s capacity to support seems limited and is likely to be impaired by the worsening economic situation. Unlike most other governments in the GCC, notably that of its oil-rich neighbour Abu Dhabi, Dubai’s government is not known to hold substantial offshore liquid assets that can potentially be tapped to finance fiscal deficits and bolster the operations of the wider public sector.

Also, erstens ist Dubais Diversifizierung in der derzeitigen Krise nichts wert (zyklische und gekoppelte Branchen). Zweitens kann der Staat nicht großartig helfen.

Zitat:Moody’s is aware of the Dubai government’s announcement in November that it held at least $90 billion in assets. Yet the composition of these assets has not been revealed and therefore their liquidity cannot be taken for granted. A request for further information regarding these assets will form a core part of Moody’s ratings review. Moody’s would be reassured if a substantial portion of these assets were liquid and unencumbered, and therefore available should any government-owned company in Dubai require extraordinary assistance with debt repayments in either local or foreign currency.

Und sogar eine unserer Ratingagenturen hat Zweifel an die Liquidität der Dubaischen Auslandsanlagen. Was ja, nach den bisherigen Erfahrungen, ein Hinweis auf einen Totalausfall sein kann.

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/central-europes-manufacturing-and-consumers-in-a-state-of-shock/
Edward Hugh ist wieder für Depressionen gut:
Zitat:Based on back of the envelope type calculations derived from the PMIs I would say their economies were contracting at the following pace in January.

               Q-o-Q  Y-o-Y
Hungary -1.0% -4%
Poland -0.7% -3%
Czech Republic -1.0% -4%


Geschätzte Januar-BIPs von Polen, Tschechien und Ungarn, auf Basis der Einkaufsmanagerindizes.

Warum macht er sich die Mühe zu schätzen?

Zitat:this should give us some general idea of what is happening, something which is badly needed in view of the suddenness of the change.

Im Klartext: Er vermutet einen steilen Fall.

http://ec.europa.eu/competition/sectors/financial_services/financial_crisis_news_en.html

Auf der Seite listet die EU-Kommission auf, welche Hilfen sie in letzter Zeit bewilligt hat.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=as9hl9mW7oGQ
Japanische Industrieproduktion -9.6% im Dezember, nach -8.5% im November.
Zitat:Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese manufacturers cut production an unprecedented 9.6 percent last month, deepening a recession that’s expected to be the worst in the postwar era.

The drop eclipsed the previous record of 8.5 percent decline set in November, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. Economists predicted a month-on-month decrease of 8.9 percent.


http://www.japaneconomynews.com/2009/01/30/japan-consumer-prices-see-02-rise-in-december-flat-when-energy-prices-stripped-out/
Zitat:
According to data released today by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan’s “core” consumer prices rose just 0.2% in December as declining oil prices continue to add deflationary pressure. December was the fifteenth month in which core consumer prices rose.
[...]
* December general nationwide consumer price index: +0.4% (+1.0% in November)
* December general nationwide consumer price index (excluding rent): +0.4% (+1.2% in November)
* December nationwide core CPI (excluding fresh food): +0.2% (+1.0% in November)
* December nationwide consumer price index (excluding fresh food and energy): 0.0 (+0.0% in November)

Mich dünkt, Japan sammelt sehr bald weitere Erfahrungen im Umgang mit Deflation. Naja, einzelne Branchen dürfen schon:

Zitat:These figures are a far cry from the oil-price-induced inflation that was seen over last summer. Let’s take a look at how individual categories contributed to December inflation:

* Fuel, light and water charges +1.8% (Previous: +4.8%)
* Food +3.6% (+3.7%)
* Education +0.7% (+0.7%)
* Clothes and footwear +0.5% (+0.5%)
* Furniture and household utensils +0.2% (+0.2%)
* Housing +0.1% (+0.2%)

* Miscellaneous +0.0% (+0.2%)

* Medical care -0.4% (-0.5%)
* Reading and recreation -0.4% (-0.5%)
* Transportation and communication -5.1% (-2.3%)


http://in.reuters.com/article/asiaCompanyAndMarkets/idINLT36831320090129
Zitat:ABP and two other top Dutch pension funds lost an average of 11.6 percent of their value in the last three months of 2008 due to the credit crisis and for now are sticking to a lower weighting for stock investments.

-11.6% in einem Quartal - nicht gut.
Zitat:ABP and the number three and four Dutch funds PMT and PME said the relative weight of stock investments had fallen due to share price declines, and ABP and PME said they had not increased those weightings again in order to cut investment risks.

Dutch pension funds, which in total managed 736 billion euros in September, usually buy extra stocks when equity markets go down to keep up the weight of share investments relative to other asset classes, Dutch central bank data has shown.

But metal workers fund PME, which managed 18.7 billion euros at the end of December, will keep its weight for stocks at 20 percent of total assets for 2009 from a 38 percent target in 2008.


Den Aktienanteil nicht zu erhöhen ist nicht unbedingt ein Zeichen für Vertrauen in den Aktienmarkt.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1133002/Violent-clashes-Russia-angry-protesters-Putin-resign-economy.html
Zitat:Russia was rocked today by some of its strongest protests yet as thousands rallied across the vast country to attack the Kremlin's response to the global economic crisis.

The marches, complete with Soviet-style red flags and banners, pose a challenge to a government which has faced little threat from the fragmented opposition and politically apathetic population during the boom years fuelled by oil.


Der Artikel ist ein durchaus ein klein wenig reißerisch - aber daß Tausende gegen Putin auf die Straße gehen, ist neu:
Zitat:About 2,500 people marched across the far eastern port of Vladivostok to denounce the Cabinet's decision to increase car import tariffs, shouting slogans urging Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to resign. Many there make their living by importing cars.

http://www.eiu.com/index.asp?layout=VWArticleVW3&article_id=1434203528&refm=vwHome&page_title=Latest analysis&rf=0
Zitat:At mid-2008, when reserves at the Russian Central Bank (RCB), consisting of hard currency and gold, approached US$600bn, the country’s total foreign debt measured US$527.1bn. Even though the hard currency reserves belonged to the government, whereas the bulk of the debt was the responsibility of Russian companies and financial institutions, Russia’s huge commodity exports and its widening current-account surplus acted as an implicit guarantee for creditors. With oil fetching well over US$100/barrel, the amount of debt seemed more than manageable and creditors were only too glad to lend more. In the second quarter alone, foreign debt owed by Russian companies jumped by US$80bn.

Mitte 2008 hatte Rußlands Zentralbank Währungsreserven von ungefähr $600 Mrd, und Rußlands gesamte Auslandsverschuldung betrug $527 Mrd.
Zitat:State handouts cannot continue indefinitely, not least because reserves no longer cover total foreign liabilities: on the basis total debt was US$540bn at the end of September 2008, and that US$73bn was repaid in the fourth quarter, total debt is now US$467bn and private-sector debt US$425bn. Russia entered the crisis with the world’s third largest cache of central bank reserves, but it has been dwindling at an accelerating pace. By mid-January, reserves had declined to just below US$400bn, meaning that more than a third of the total was spent over the past five months.

Januar 2009: Währungsreserven knapp $400 Mrd, Auslandsverschuldung $467 Mrd.
Ergo: Reserven -200, Verschuldung -60 Mrd. Oops.

Ausblick:

Zitat:Foreign banks are already feeling the impact of Russian debt problems. For example, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), in which the UK government was forced to take a 60% stake last year, reportedly wrote off a £2.5bn (US$3.6bn) loan to a Russia oligarch. Other international banks, which are looking forward to debt repayments by their Russian creditors, may discover that they are not getting their money on time or in full.

The defaulted Russian loan was only a small fraction of RBS’s mounting problems, and the size of the total Russian debt pales in comparison to the size of the subprime residential mortgage mess in the US, for example. Still, if Russia now initiates a process of international debt restructuring, it is likely to shake the already troubled global financial system further.


Mehr Probleme...

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/spains-recession-deepens/
Zitat:Spain’s economy is now most evidently, and totally and completely officially, in its first recession since 1993. The final confirmation of this came yesterday when the Bank of Spain released its quarterly report on the Spanish economy. According to the bank, gross domestic product fell by 1.1% in the final quarter of 2008 (over the previous quarter), following a 0.2% decline in the third quarter. GDP fell year on year by 0.8%.

Das ist, auf ein Jahr gerechnet, -4.4%.

Graphik, Spaniens BIP In Quartalsvergleich

Zitat:According to the Bank of Spain the main component driving the contraction in the second half of last year was household consumption, with the contraction in household expenditure accelerating in Q4 when compared with Q3. In particular, household consumption fell at a year-on-year rate of something over 1.5% in 2008 Q4, which meant that - taking the year as a whole - it was private consumption which contributed the most to the slowdown in GDP, to a greater degree even than the decline in residential investment (which was nonethelessdown 10% over the year).

Urks.
Zitat:The drop in household consumption and fixed capital investment was also to some extent offset by a surge in government spending. The government sector sustained aggregated domestic consumption in 2008, with government consumption increasing at a 5% rate over the year a whole. As a result public finances deteriorated rapidly, and moved from a surplus of 2.2% of GDP in 2007, to a deficit of approximately 3.4% of GDP in 2008

Und Spaniens Staatsausgaben haben das BIP schon massiv gestützt...

Zitat:So really, without these two factors - the imports slowdown and the increase in government spending - we could easily have been talking about a contraction at an annual rate of 7% plus, which is, well, very, very large.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atYNnu818TbE
Zitat:South Korea’s shipments fell 32.8 percent from a year earlier, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy said. Manufacturing in China shrank for a sixth month, the CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index showed.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/27cc509c-ee6f-11dd-b791-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:South Korea's government yesterday brought the country's stock exchange under state control, a move that could derail Seoul's ambitions of becoming a regional financial hub and spark a legal battle with the bourse.
Financial authorities last year declared the Korea Exchange (KRX) an illegal monopoly and said the National Board of Audit and Inspection should supervise its accounts and management. However, this recommendation could not come into force until the finance ministry's ruling yesterday.

Südkoreanische Börse nun unter Staatskontrolle - weil sie ein "illegales Monopol" ist.
Was das bringen soll?
Zitat:
"Turning the KRX into a public institution is apparently seen as a way for the current government to keep a tight rein on personnel, a move that will ultimately lead to a shake-up and 'parachute staff', dropped from the top into their jobs," Yu Heung-ryol, KRX union chief, told the Yonhap news agency.
The move to class KRX, which is mainly owned by Korean securities firms, as "quasi-governmental" comes at a tough time for an exchange which is looking to expand its foreign listings and itself expand abroad into smaller markets.

Nicht, außer mehr Einfluß für den Staat?

Aber interessant ist folgendes:

Zitat:Under South Korean law, a company is classed as a monopoly if its revenues exceed 50 per cent of the total sector. However, in spite of becoming the lone player in 2005, by merging with the Korea Futures Exchange and Kosdaq, the stock exchange only fell foul of the authorities last year.

Nach südkoreanischem Recht hat ein Unternehmen ein Monopol, wenn es mehr als 50% des Umsatzes des ganzen Sektors macht.
Das schreit ja geradezu nach Verstaatlichung von Bahn AG, Telekom, Post, ...

http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/2009/01/another-scary-chart.html
Graphik: Ausländische Anlagen in Sterling
Das ist die Menge Geld, die nicht in Großbritannien Lebende in Großbritannien angelegt haben. Alice Cook (ukhousingbubble) argumentiert, daß die Leute ihr Geld da wegen attraktiver Zinsen angelegt haben, und ein weiteres Senken des Zinssatzes zum Abziehen dieses Geldes und weiteren Verfall des Pfundes führen könnte.

Die Argumentation ist natürlich nicht von der Hand zu weisen, aber eventuell sind diese Investoren hauptsächlich scharf auf Schmerzen und weniger auf Rendite... aber wenn ich damit unrecht haben sollte, wären die Folgen gravierend:

Zitat:Second, these accounts are denominated in sterling, which means that before this money leaves these shores, it will be converted into foreign currency. The laws of supply and demand will work their dark magic. A large inflow of unwanted sterling into the foreign exchange market will lead to a collapse in the exchange rate.

The amount of cash held in these accounts is huge. In December 2008, it was an amount equal to 30 percent of UK GDP. The growth of these deposits is even more shocking. Between September 1997 and April 2008, they increased by 450 percent.


http://ukhousebubble.blogspot.com/2009/02/unknown-circle.html
Graphik: Kredit an "andere Finanzinstitute"
Zitat:OFCs are non deposit taking financial companies. Since they don't take deposits they are not regulated like regular high street banks. OFCs make up the famous shadow banking system that we hear about but never see. Credit to these companies has soared in recent months, particularly after the fall of Lehmans.

In Großbritannien gibt's eine Kreditklemme? Nicht für jeden... insbesondere nicht für das Schattenbankensystem.

Wobei sich hier die Frage stellt: Wird dem SBS das Geld geliehen, weil man es nur so vor dem Zusammenbruch bewahren kann, oder bekommt es das Geld nach dem Motto "alles auf die 17" eines verzweifelten Spielers?


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7865164.stm
Britische Gewerbeimmobilien:
Zitat:UK commercial property values fell by a record amount in 2008, according to Investment Property Databank (IPD).

Its UK Quarterly Property Index showed commercial properties lost 26.4% of their value last year - the most since records began in 1987.


-26.4% in einem Jahr - _viel_ schlimmer als erwartet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aq1MhEC7B6R8&refer=home
Zitat:North American college endowments lost an average of 22.5 percent on investments from July to November and the declines probably will get bigger after returns on private equity and real estate are calculated.

The funds shed $94.5 billion in asset value in the five months ended Nov. 30, according to a study released today by Commonfund and the National Association of College and University Business Officers. The loss, the biggest in 35 years, compares with a 29 percent decline in the same period by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, including reinvested dividends.


Die US-Collegefonds, haben von Juli bis November 22.5% verloren - und die Verluste werden wohl steigen, sobald die Ergebnisse von Immobilien und private equity berechnet sind.

Oh, und Harvard und Dartmouth sind noch gar nicht eingerechnet.


http://www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/aktien/marktberichte/:Das-Kapital-Magerkost-in-Amerika/468731.html?eid=313559
Die Amerikaner schnallen buchstäblich ihre Gürtel enger. Im vierten Quartal ist der reale private Verbrauch von Nahrungsmitteln saisonbereinigt mit einer Jahresrate von 13,8 Prozent gefallen, nach einem Minus von 7,3 Prozent im dritten Quartal. Derlei hat es seit Beginn des vierteljährlichen US-BIP-Ausweises 1947 nicht gegeben.
US-Lebensmittelkonsum
Urks.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/01/30/riding_the_empt.html
US-Eisenbahngütertransport über drei Wochen, endend 2009-01-24:
Zitat:According to the latest American Association of Railroads data for the three weeks ending Jan 24, 2009, commercial rail traffic continues to crash in the U.S. Leading the list is railcar loads of motor vehicles, which are off an incredible 65% year-over-year.
Graphik

Autotransport: -65%.
Erz: -57%
Farmprodukte: -50%
Metall: -49%
Mineralien: -44%
Holz: -40%
Jeweils gegenüber dem Vorjahr gerechnet.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/record-low-new-homes-sales-in-december.html
Zitat:The Census Bureau reports, New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 331 thousand. This is the lowest sales rate the Census Bureau has ever recorded (starting in 1963).

Graphik: New Home Sales
Auch hier gilt: Bald ist weitere Verschlechterung nicht mehr möglich.
Zitat:The months of supply is at an ALL TIME RECORD 12.9 months in December (this is seasonally adjusted)!

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/philly-fed-activity-declined-in-every.html
Zitat:Here is a new record that will never be broken! The Philly Fed index shows - for the first time ever - declining activity in all states in December (see bottom graph).

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for December.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for all 50 states for December 2008. The indexes decreased in all 50 states for the month (a one-month diffusion index of -100). For the past three months, the indexes increased in three states, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, and remained unchanged in one state, Alaska.


Im Dezember ist der "Philadelphia Fed state coincident index" zum ersten mal in allen 50 US-Bundesstaaten gefallen. Der setzt sich so zusammen:
Zitat:
Each of the regional indexes is computed using data on employment, real earnings, the unemployment rate and average weekly hours worked in manufacturing. Each index is then retrended so its long-term growth rate matched the corresponding growth rate of real earnings. (Quelle)

Und damit hat die Krise dann auch offiziell auch all die Bundesstaaten voll erfaßt, die mit der Immobilienblase nichts zu tun hatten.

Graphik dazu
Wie CR so schön schrieb: a new record that will never be broken Schlimmer als 50 von 50 kann's nicht mehr kommen.


http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/01/the_consumption_2.html
Graphik: Konsumwachstum in den USA
Rot: Haltbare Güter. Niveau: 1980.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/truck-tonnage-index-cliff-diving.html

Graphik: LKW-Transportindex

Zitat:The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index plunged 11.1 percent in December 2008, marking the largest month-to-month reduction since April 1994, when the unionized less-than-truckload industry was in the midst of a strike. December’s drop was the third-largest single-month drop since ATA began collecting the data in 1973. In December, the seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled just 98.3 (2000 = 100), its lowest level since December 2000. The not seasonally adjusted index edged 0.6 percent higher in December.

Compared with December 2007, the index declined 14.1 percent, the biggest year-over-year decrease since February 1996. During the fourth quarter, tonnage was down 6.0 percent from the same quarter in 2007.


http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/january-economic-summary-in-graphs.html

CR hat eine Zusammenfassung der Januarnachrichten über Ökonomie und Immobilienbranche der USA gemacht. Das sind 20 Graphiken, von denen nicht eine positiv ist.


http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE50S7NK20090130
Zitat:The state, which produces about half the United States' vegetables and fruit, is in its third year of drought and its main system supplying water to cities and farms may only be able to fulfill 15 percent of requests, scientists said.

The snowpack on California's mountains is carrying only 61 percent of the water of normal years, according to the survey by the state Department of Water Resources. Last year the snowpack held 111 percent of the normal amount of water, but spring was the driest ever recorded.
[...]
December through January tend to be the wettest months but thus far the Sierra has only received one third of its expected annual snowfall.

"A third of normal is devastating," said Elissa Lynn, a meteorologist with the state. "January is the biggest month for precipitation in the Sierra."


Die Chancen für eine massive Trockenheit in Kalifornien werden immer besser.
In Kalifornien kommt wirklich alles zusammen, was ein Land für ein abgrundtief schlechtes Jahr braucht: Finanzkrise, Trockenheit und Wasserrationierung, Wirtschaftskrise. Und brennen wird es sicher auch wieder genug.
Aber keine Sorge, es kann noch schlimmer kommen - das große Erdbeben fehlt noch.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/01/29/new_transport_t.html
Zitat:Some new surface transport trade data out from the BTS. It shows November trade between the U.S. and Canada and Mexico was down 13.8%, the biggest decline in eight years, and the second-largest in the history of NAFTA, eclipsed only by the months after 9/11.

Graphik

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7865259.stm
Zitat:Zimbabwe is revaluing its dollar again, removing twelve zeros from the currency with immediate effect.

The country's central bank is introducing seven new notes in an effort to stave off economic collapse.


Der Zentralbankchef hat aber Humor:
Zitat:The governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, Gideon Gono, said: "Yesterday's trillionaires, I am sorry, will not be able to buy their favourite drink today," according to the AFP news agency.

Ein erstes Mißtrauensvotum hat die BBC schon:
Zitat:Given the choice of multiple currencies, who would want to trade in Zimbabwe dollars?

John Robertson
Harare-based economist


In jedem Fall kann man jedoch feststellen, daß 12 Nullen nicht ausreichen - die Zahl der Nullen in der Regierung ist deutlich größer.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jan/29/zimbabwe-starving-food-aid-cut
Zitat:The World Food Programme is to cut the core maize ration in February from 10kg to 5kg a month – or just 600 calories a day – for 7 million Zimbabweans, about 70% of the people left in the country. The recommended ration is 12kg a month.

The WFP says it has cut the ration to meet increased demand and cope with a shortfall in donations. It says it requires another $65m to keep feeding Zimbabweans until the end of March. But donors are reluctant to put more resources into the beleaguered African state and what aid there is has been partly diverted to the cholera crisis that has claimed 3,000 lives.


Graphik
Noch ein Beweis der Überlegenheit der europäischen Zivilisation: Bei uns verbrennt eine einzelne Bank ja mehr pro Monat als 7 Mio. Simbabwer...
Gruß, Uwe

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