Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2009-01-29 10:25:58
Ausgabe 79
Anhängeblackswanchartael4-onclick.png (34 KB),blackswanchartael4.png (9322 Bytes),resources-for-wall-street.gif (49 KB)
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/01/2009-country-stock-market-performance.html
Zitat:But 19 countries in the black means that 65 countries are already in the red, and some are bleeding pretty badly. Seventeen countries are down more than 10%, including G-7 countries Germany and Japan. Canada is the best performing G-7 country so far in 2009 with a decline of 3.50%.

Aktienmärkte 2009
Israel ist übrigens im grünen Bereich, alle anderen Länder in der Gegend im roten... es scheint so, als wäre ein bischen "Krieg" gut für die Börse.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d99064aa-e65c-11dd-8e4f-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:The latest Financial Times economic weather map for Europe shows a further substantial deterioration since it was last published in October, when the devastating impact on the global economy of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the investment bank, was only just becoming apparent.
[...]
With policymakers struggling to keep pace with the downturn’s ferocity, the European Commission on Monday rushed out revised economic forecasts showing European Union gross domestic product would contract by 1.8 per cent this year – faster than in the US. The gloom was pretty universal. Spain and Ireland – previously among the eurozone’s best performers – would contract by 2 per cent and 5 per cent. German GDP was expected to fall by 2.3 per cent in 2009; UK GDP by 2.8 per cent.
[...]
There are some other possible bright spots. Eastern European economies such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia were still expected to see their economies growing this year – as was the Mediterranean island of Cyprus.

Die FT hat einen unerfreulichen Ausblick für Deutschland - gleichauf mit Großbritannien und Spanien, knapp besser als die Ukraine. Ich habe leichte Zweifel an dieser Sichtweise.
Aber insgesamt ist das eine gute Erinnerung daran, daß es lichterloh und überall brennt.

Graphik: Ökonomische Wetterkarte der FT


http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/01/country-default-risk-continues-to-rise.html
Zitat:Below we highlight CDS prices for sovereign debt. These prices measure the cost of protection against default for 38 countries around the world. Specifically, the CDS prices represent the cost per year to insure $10,000 worth of sovereign debt for five years.

CDS auf Staatsanleihen

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3e5c633c-ebdc-11dd-8838-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Der Rückschritt des internationalen Handels - zurück in die Zeit vor der Erfindung international operierender Banken - beschleunigt sich. Ein weiteres Anzeichen, daß das Banksystem seine Funktion nicht mehr erfüllt.
Zitat:In a striking example of how the global financial crisis and high food prices have strained the finances of poor and middle-income nations, countries including Russia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Morocco say they have signed or are discussing inter-government and barter deals to import commodities from rice to vegetable oil.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/personalFinanceNews/idUKLNE50P02R20090126
Zitat:Global pension fund assets in the 11 major pension markets fell by $5 trillion (3.6 trillion pounds) in 2008 hit by volatile markets, a Watson Wyatt (WW.N) report said on Monday.

The study said that over 2008, global pension assets fell to $20 trillion from $25 trillion, a fall of 19 percent which took assets below 2005 levels.


Weltweit fielen die Pensionsfonds von 25000 Mrd. Dollar auf 20000 Mrd. Dollar. Mal eben 20% weg.
Einziger Lichtblick:
Zitat:All countries in 2008 saw significant negative growth in pension assets, the study noted, except for Germany, which was protected by its high allocation to bonds.

http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/01/27/live-blogging-vikram-pandits-citigroup-investor-day-speech/
Ein besonderes Beispiel für Realitätsverzerrung liefert der Chef der Citigroup:
Zitat:12:53: Regulators believe that banks are well-capitalized. Pandit dismissed TCE, or tangible common equity, as a way to measure the health of banks. The more accurate number, he argues, is Tier 1 capital, which is the regulatory capital and is not as dependent on stock prices. He says the entire banking sector is essentially well-capitalized for business if you look at Tier 1. “When a bank is forced to raise additional common equity, it creates what I call a negative feedback loop,” he maintains. “Breaking this feedback loop,” he says, is in the interest of customers, regulators, shareholders and pretty much America itself.

Banken sind also gut kapitalisiert, und \"tangible common equity\" ist der falsche Maßstab für die Liquidität einer Bank.

FT Alphaville hat an dem Standpunkt einige Kritik;

Zitat:Of course by Tier 1 measurements banks have been reasonably well-capitalised for a while, with leverage ratios exemplary of the height of fiscal prudence to match. The problem is the market (reasonably) no longer has faith in Tier 1 capital, which includes intangible assets like deferred tax credits and preferred stock (incidentally, trust preferred securities have only been included in Tier 1 since 1996 — a perfect example of the rather arbitrary nature of the measure).

Und ich habe noch einen anderen Kritikpunkt: Was Pandit da macht, ist die Aufhebung aller Regularien zu fordern, die eine Bank zur Vorhaltung einer Kapitalreserve zwingen.

Zitat:1:31: An audience member asks, if TCE isn’t any good, what is the “more intelligent way to look at bank capital?” Pandit is all, “yeah, like we know.” What he actually says is “a more intelligent way to look at bank capital — that is the Holy Grail.” Pandit says that banks have more “risk capital” than anyone knows and says that regulators should offer more clarity on how they think about TCE. “You ought to go ask them and they will tell you.”

Ein Zuhörer: Was wäre denn ein bessere Maßstab für die Kapitalisierung einer Bank als \"tangible common equity\"?
Pandit: ein besserer Maßstab - das ist der heilige Gral.
Ah, ja.

Zitat:1:38: Pandit: “These are unprecendented times. These are times in which you choose between second-best. These are times for learning….the paradigm itself is shifting. It’s difficult for anyone to use conventional views and ways to handle a paradigm shift.” He then blatantly cheerleads for policymakers, which, we feel compelled to point out, now pretty much own his bank. “They really are being very thoughtful and very smart,” Pandit sends smooches to Washington. “I’m not saying they have all the answers, but they have a lot of the answers. I feel very good about the team in Washington…we’ll say to them, ‘we’re with you. Let’s do this together because we’re in it together.’” It’s amazing how optimistic a $301 billion backstop will make a bank CEO.

Insgesamt ließt sich das für mich wie der Versuch, die Pleite dadurch abzuwenden, laxere Regeln zu bekommen.
Und das kann weder funktionieren noch langfristig erwünscht sein.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/28/live-from-davos-2009/
Auch Blackstones Boss wirbt für laxere Regeln:
Zitat: In fact, Mr. Schwarzman is already making a splash. At a discussion panel on Wednesday, hopped off his stool during a debate moderated by CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo, grabbed the microphone, and boldly called for what private equity loves: More leverage!

Mr. Schwarzman argued that banks should be allowed lower capital ratios, freeing money normally laid away against losses for new lending. He also called for the end of accounting rules that forced lower and lower asset valuations. And, oh yes, the government should guarantee securitizations to help the market get moving.


Da bin ich ja mal gespannt, ob sich die Idee, einen Brand durch mehr Brennstoff zu löschen, durchsetzen wird.

http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZW20090128000145.1/Investcorp%20Ends%20S&P%20Contract%20After%20%22Unjustified%22%20Downgrade/#ZW20090128000145.1
Wenn eine Ratingagentur mal downgraded, muß das nicht unbedingt gut für sie sein:
Zitat:Bahrain and London-listed Investcorp Bank B.S.C. (INVCORP.BH) has terminated its public rating contract with Standard & Poors after an "unjustified" downgrade of the investment firm's credit rating, a company spokesperson said Wednesday.

Standard and Poor's said earlier Wednesday it lowered the long and short-term credit ratings on Investcorp to BB+/B from BBB/A-2.


Was mir bei der Gelegenheit auffällt:
a) die Ratingagenturen sind immer noch am Markt
b) die Besitzer der Ratingagenturen haben immer noch nicht für den Schaden bezahlt.
c) die systematischen Probleme des Ratingsystems sind immer noch unverändert.
Das ist eigentlich nicht nur ein kleines bischen erschreckend...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123292489602813689.html
In Seehandel: Containermarkt in den kommenden Jahren schrieb ich, über die Kapazitätszunahme im Seehandel:
Zitat von none:Beeindruckend: 2009 bis 2012 wachsen die Flotten um im Durchschnitt 13% - und der Containerverkehr um 0.7%.

Das Wall Street Journal schreibt zu dem Thema:

Zitat:Shippers are eager to avoid partially filled vessels at almost any cost. "To fill their big boats, these guys will cut their price to any level for customers," said Dirk Visser, an analyst at Dynamar NV, a Dutch consultancy.

With overcapacity and a drop in trade, the bottom recently fell out on shipping rates. The rate for shipping a container from Asia to Europe, the world's busiest trade lane, has fallen to around $300, one-tenth the cost of a year ago, even as some shippers cancel regular runs. Some ships have gone so far as to take containers free. The only cost to the shipper is roughly $500 in fuel and transit fees, which are assessed on all containers.

According to the most recent data available, the U.S., Japan, China and the European Union all suffered 10% declines in exports in November, auguring a bitter 2009 for global trade. Yet shipping companies aren't expected to cancel any orders for new ships, allowing the global fleet to increase by over 12% -- way ahead of expected demand.


ok, die Wachstumsrate beträgt vielleicht nicht 13, sondern nur 12% - aber der Einbruch auch nicht 0.7%, sondern momentan mindestens 10%. Und die Frachtraten sind mittlerweile nicht mehr kalkulierbar...
Zitat:Some companies are suspending routes and scrapping smaller vessels -- to little effect. Recent analyst reports predicted rates are unlikely to rise until the end of the economic downturn. "The challenging environment could continue in 2010 until a demand recovery narrows the demand-supply gap and improves the level of profitability in the sector," a J.P. Morgan & Co. report said.

Most of the new big ships were ordered before the economic bust in anticipation that the China-fueled boom in global trade would continue. But instead of canceling orders, shippers now see an opportunity to force a shakeout in what has long been a fragmented industry of family-led carriers.


Wir blähen also Überkapazitäten bewußt auf, um die kleineren Konkurrenten aus dem Geschäft zu drängen.

Eine riskante Strategie: Zwar sind Schiffe, die 13000 Container transportieren können, sicherlich effizienter als Kleinere, aber schuldenfinanzierte Giganten müssen nicht notwenigerweise gegen abbezahlte kleinere Konkurrenz gewinnen - insbesondere wenn die niedrigen Leitzinsen nicht weitergereicht werden.
Naja, in jedem Fall: Die nächsten Jahr kann man für 500$ seine komplette Wohnungseinrichtung nach Asien schiffen, wenn man denn möchte.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/28/51795/european-capacity-collapse-the-preview/
Den Artikeltitel finde ich (leider) einfach nur passend.

Die Quartalszahlen zur italienischen und französischen Kapazitätsauslastung sind da:

Zitat:And to today’s numbers. In France, capacity utilisation fell to 75.8 in January from 82.2 in October — the biggest decline ever seen. The previous largest drop was 2.1 points between July and October last year, according to JPM, and before that 1.7 points at the beginning of 1993.

In Italy there was also a significant decline, to 69.9 in January, from 74.4 in October.


Graphik dazu

Zitat von Alphaville zitiert David Mackie:At the moment we only have manufacturing output data through last November; on the basis of the collapse in capacity utilization, output fell very, very dramatically in December and January. Furthermore, this collapse in capacity utilization suggests a big decline in capital spending and inflation in the months ahead…

Das sind in der Tat Vorboten ganz, ganz schlechter Zahlen.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUKLM13829220090122
Zitat:Fortis Bank, principally owned by the Belgian state, said on Thursday it made a 14.1 billion euro ($18.30 billion) net loss in the first nine months of 2008 and expected a further 4 to 5 billion euro loss in the final quarter.

The company, formed from the carve-up of listed Fortis (FOR.BR) (FOR.AS) by the Belgian, Dutch and Luxembourg governments at the end of October, said it made an underlying profit of 1.2 billion euros in the first nine months.

However, a net loss resulted due to a 12.5 billion euro hit linked to the divestment of ABN AMRO and the carve-up transactions and 3.6 billion euros from the deterioration of its credit portfolio.


-14 Mrd in den ersten 9 Monaten 2008, und wahrscheinlich noch mal 4 bis 5 Mrd. im letzten Quartal.

Aber alles ist gut: im Kerngeschäft machte man +1.2 Mrd in den ersten drei Quartalen, die Verluste sind ja nur wegen des Kaufs von ABN AMRO und der Verschlechterung des Kreditportfolios. Kein Grund zur Beunruhigung.

Nun wüßte ich noch ganz gerne, ob das der Verluste der belgischen Fortis oder der Gesamtverlust von Benelux war...


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/8314652
Zitat:Bolivia's government seized control of energy producer Chaco from Pan American Energy, leftist President Evo Morales said on Friday, two days before the country votes on his proposed constitution.
"With this decree today, we nationalize all the shares of oil company Chaco. (They belong) to Bolivians now," Morales said during a speech given in one of Chaco's natural gas fields located in the central Cochabamba region.
Morales ordered Pan American Energy last year to transfer part of its 51 percent stake in Chaco to the Bolivian government so that state-run energy company YPFB, which at the time held a 49 percent stake, could become majority holder.
But talks over the transfer of shares had broken down, prompting the government to take control of the whole company.
Pan American Energy is controlled by oil giant BP Plc.

Die Spitzenpolitiker der linken Länder Südamerikas arbeiten hart daran, das internationale Vertrauen auf den absoluten Nullpunkt zu bringen.


http://www.kuenselonline.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=11864
Der Bezirk Bhutans, der rund um die Hauptstadt liegt, hat einen Mangel an Brennholz:
Zitat:This is because the increasing demand for firewood is far exceeding the allocated supply quantities established by the DFS. In 2008, Thimphu consumed 7,736 cubic meters or 967 truckloads of firewood from its three Forest Management Units (FMU) that supply the dzongkhag with timber.

At such a rate, the FMUs are used up faster than they can be replenished.

For this year, the Natural Resources Development Corporation Limited (NRDCL), the institution responsible for handling firewood orders, has submitted a request for 10,830 cubic metres or 1,354 truckloads of firewood from the DFS. According to the Divisional Forest Officer (DFO), Lobzang Dorji, this will not happen, “it will be difficult to meet even one third this year”, he said.

Das heißt: Schon 4000 Kubikmeter zu liefern wird nicht ganz einfach - und angefordert sind 10000.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9ec60848-e800-11dd-b2a5-0000779fd2ac.html
Graphik: BIP und Stromproduktion Chinas
Zitat:As 2009 started there was a broad consensus that the worst that could happen to Chinese economic growth would be a annual growth rate of 6 per cent. This would equal its lowest growth rate, according to official figures, of the past two decades. Much less than this would make it harder for the authorities to keep meeting the aspirations of the population.

However, various measures of economic activity suggest that an outright contraction in the Chinese economy is now at least thinkable. To take one widely discussed example, electricity production in November was down 7.8 per cent from a year earlier. This was the sharpest decline on record. Typically, electricity production has grown at more than 10 per cent.

Chinese imports in December were down 21.3 per cent from a year earlier. Falling commodity prices explain some of this. China may also be cutting its reliance on importing parts from other countries in favour of building and assembling everything itself. This might explain the torrid decline in exports for Korea and Taiwan. But it still looks as though China is suffering a significant fall in domestic demand.


China im Januar 2009: Immer mehr Leute sehen die Möglichkeit einer echten Rezession...

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/handel_dienstleister/:Szenen-einer-Krise-5-Still-ruht-das-Drehkreuz/467208.html
Zitat:Ein einziger Lkw steht an der Abladerampe des Exportzentrums von Lufthansa Cargo. "Wie Sie sehen, sehen Sie nichts", sagt Firmensprecher Nils Haupt. Dabei können hier 23 Laster gleichzeitig ihre Güter loswerden, die dann per Flugzeug in die Welt gehen. Die Rampe liegt verlassen unter dem grauen Himmel. "Deprimierend ist das", klagt Haupt.

Ein paar Hundert Meter weiter auf der Fläche vor dem Rollfeld warten zwei Jumbos und acht MD-11-Frachtflieger. Eigentlich sollten sie voll beladen in der Luft sein. Doch nur um ein Flugzeug stehen Paletten mit Kartons im Kreis. Arbeiter in neongelb leuchtenden Westen laden sie in den Bauch der Maschine.

Die anderen Flieger müssen warten. Und das kann dauern. Denn dem Carrier brechen die Aufträge im Sturzflug weg. Allein im Dezember transportierte er gut ein Fünftel weniger Güter als im Vorjahresmonat. "Das war einer der schlechtesten Monate in unserer Firmengeschichte", gibt Haupt zu.


http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/article637213.ece
Zitat:Politiken has surveyed the latest export figures for Sweden, Norway, Great Britain, the United States and Germany for November 2008 and compared them with figures for November 2007.

The tendency is clear - with the exception of Germany, Danish exports to these countries have fallen dramatically from 2007 to 2008.

The drop in exports to Sweden, for example, between November 2007 and November 2008 was at 22 percent. The corresponding figure for the U.S. was a drop of 32 percent.
[...]
The worst prospects are said to be for the United Kingdom. Exports to the U.K. have dropped 12 percent over the past year and the council expects negative British GDP in both 2009 and 2010. The Confederation of Danish Industries (DI) expects Germany, which is Denmark's largest export market, to be even harder hit than Britain.


Dänemark -> USA: -32%. Wow.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/India_bans_Chinese_toys_for_six_months/rssarticleshow/4024487.cms
Was die Welt in einer Weltwirtschaftskrise wirklich nicht braucht: Protektionistischen Blödsinn unter den Billigproduzenten...

Zitat:India on Friday slapped a ban on import of toys from China after cheap supplies from the neighbouring country upset the applecart of the domestic manufacturers.
The ban, notified by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade, will remain valid for six months.

While the government notification did not cite the reason for the ban, sources said it was concerned over a rise in imports of toys.

A concern had also been raised over the safety of children playing with the Chinese toys, which were found to be toxic.

Most of the varieties, including wheeled toys, dolls, stuffed toys, toyguns, wooden and metal toys, musical instruments, electric trains and puzzles are covered under the ban.
[...]
However, trade expert Arun Goyal said, "The ban would encourage smuggling of toys through Nepal borders. That would be more dangerous... It is bad, especially for the slum children, who an afford the cheap Chinese toys only."


und wahrscheinlich trifft's sowieso die Falschen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ar6hB_Hr347E&refer=home
Der Satyam-Fall zieht nun PricewaterhouseCoopers mit sich:
Zitat:PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP’s Indian affiliate, the auditor of Satyam Computer Services Ltd., said two partners were arrested by police as authorities extended the nation’s largest fraud inquiry.

Srinivas Talluri and S. Gopalakrishnan were remanded to judicial custody on charges of “conspiracy and co- participation,” A. Shivanarayana, a police spokesman in Andhra Pradesh state, said from the province’s capital Hyderabad, where Satyam is based. Price Waterhouse said in an e-mailed statement it didn’t know why two partners were detained.

Seven years after the implosion of Enron Corp. led to the dissolution of accounting firm Arthur Andersen LLP, the Satyam case has put PricewaterhouseCoopers in the spotlight. Indian police, fraud squad, markets regulator and accounting body have started investigations after Satyam founder Ramalinga Raju said Jan. 7 that he had fabricated $1 billion of assets.
[...]
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP may also face scrutiny in the U.S. after Satyam’s New York-listed equities lost 82 percent of their market value in two weeks. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether Satyam misled investors and officials from the SEC plan to coordinate inquiries with counterparts in India.


http://www.ftd.de/politik/europa/:Demonstrationen-erfolgreich-Island-ruft-Neuwahlen-aus/464902.html
Zitat:Die Isländer wählen am 9. Mai ein neues Parlament. Das kündigte der konservative Ministerpräsident Geir Haarde an. Er habe sich mit Außenministerin Ingibjörg Sólrún Gísladottír von der sozialdemokratischen Partei auf den Wahltermin geeinigt.

Haarde hatte sich zunächst für Wahlen gegen Jahresende ausgesprochen. Eine Abstimmung in der gegenwärtigen Notlage seien unverantwortlich, hatte der Regierungschef argumentiert. Gísladóttir forderte jedoch rasche Neuwahlen.
[...]
Seit Wochen fordern Demonstranten den Rücktritt der Regierung. Tausende Isländer hatten mehr als eine Woche lang jeden Tag bis in die Nacht hinein vor Parlament, Ministerien und Parteibüros protestiert. Dabei kam es auch zu gewaltsamen Auseinandersetzungen mit der Polizei - was sehr ungewöhnlich ist in Island.


Was ist eigentlich mit der isländischen Bankenaufsicht und den verantwortlichen Bankiers? Lernen die jetzt im Januar ohne Neopren im Atlantik zu schwimmen, oder bleiben die Hauptschuldigen ungestraft?

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1057952.html
Zitat:The coastal aquifer, a subterranean 'water tank' stretching from the area of Hadera down to the Gaza Strip, provides between a quarter and a third of the potable drinking water in Israel and is discussed extensively in the report.

Der küstennahe Grundwasserleiter/tank liefert zwischen 25 und 33% des Trinkwassers in Israel.
Zitat:
The Water Authority divides the aquifer into area cells, and according to the available data, the cells in the south, about half of the total, are running low on stored water. However, the report says that the quality of the water they contain is good overall.

Rund die Hälfte des Bereichs hat wenig Wasser übrig, aber die Wasserqualität dort ist in Ordnung.

Zitat:On the other hand, in the north, where most of the water reserves can be found, there are two central problems facing the aquifer. The first is the high concentrations of contaminants that spill into the aquifer cells through sewage, fertilizers, pesticides, fuel dumps and garbage. The second is that there are not enough wells from which water can be drawn.

Die andere Hälfte jedoch hat verhältnismäßig viele Wasserreserven von schlechter Qualität.

Zitat:The authors of the report recommended ways to stabilize the aquifer so that it could remain a reliable source of potable water in the future. Among the proposals is to draw less water and handle sources of pollution more efficiently.

Ich frage mich aber, wie Israel das hinbekommen soll...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0fd4fe70-ed58-11dd-88f3-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:But Japanese buyers are now regularly outbid in auctions. This month, two sushi bar owners, one from Hong Kong, paid $104,000 (€78,800, £73,800) for a 282lb blue-fin tuna, the highest price in years.
Das sind ja nur 580 EUR pro Kilogramm Fisch....
Zitat:
Each year, about 100m tonnes of fish, 5 per cent of the 2bn tonnes of seafood biomass, are hauled from the oceans, according to a recent study published in Science. Many conservationists espouse “peak fish” theories, suggesting that catches have reached a limit, or gone beyond.

Naja, das eigentliche Problem ist nicht, daß 5% der Biomasse weggefischt werden (das alleine wäre wahrscheinlich unproblematisch), sondern daß große, erwachsene, fortpflanzungsfähige Tiere weggefangen werden. Und das ist halt ein sehr wirksamer Beitrag zur Unterbrechung der Fortpflanzungskette.

Zitat:
That may not be true for all species. But for some it is undeniable. In November, the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas, which includes Japan, sliced the 2009 blue-fin quota by a fifth. Japan gobbles 90 per cent of all blue-fin. Some scientists say the quota must be halved to let stocks recover.

Äh, Kinder... Quoten für _teuren_ Fisch machen keinen Sinn, denn es ist einfach zu lohnenswert, den illegal zu fangen, und die Fischindustrie insgesamt ist nicht gerade leicht kontrollierbar.
Gerade bei dem teuren Zeug helfen nur Verbote.
Zitat:
Japan’s fishing industry faces crisis. The number of fishermen has sunk to 200,000 from a peak of 1m. That is still too many, compared with 10,000 in Norway. Too many boats chasing too few fish have devastated fish resources. By 2006, according to the Japan Economic and Social Research Institute, more than half of Japan’s fishing grounds had dangerously low stocks.

was dann im wesentlichen heißt: die kleinen Fischer gehen vor die Hunde, und die großen bauen größere Schiffe und fischen anderswo.
Zitat:Today’s policies stem from a desire to protect jobs and the notion that fishermen know better than scientists, he says.

Tja, nicht nur in Japan, und nicht nur bei Fisch. Das ist ein Problem, was sich wirklich global durch den Umgang mit Naturresourcen zieht.
Zitat:
Fish resources are devilishly difficult to manage internationally. Many fish species migrate wantonly across territorial waters. Indonesians have an economic incentive to grab juvenile tuna in their waters before they head for the high seas to be snagged – more rationally – as mature adults by stronger fishing nations. The idea of a war over fish is no more preposterous than that of a conflict over water or petroleum.

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/24012009/323/libya-eyes-nationalisation-oil-firms-kadhafi.html
Zitat:Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi said Tripoli could nationalise foreign oil firms operating in the country unless prices rise to 100 dollars a barrel, the state news agency JANA reported on Saturday.

"There have been calls for the nationalisation of the oil and gas industry," he said at a dinner on Friday night for visiting King Juan Carlos of Spain.

"We hope this will not happen. We hope oil prices will rise to a reasonable level," he said. "A price which stabilises at around 100 dollars ... is a reasonable target price."


Libyen könnte Ölfirmen verstaatlichen, wenn die Ölpreise nicht auf 100 Dollar pro Barrel steigen. "Wir hoffen daß dies nicht passieren wird. Wir hoffen, die Ölpreise steigen auf ein vernünftiges Niveau". Irre ich mich oder klingt das ein wenig nach Erpressung?

http://politiken.dk/newsinenglish/article635413.ece
Nicht nur Dubai wird von seinen Gastarbeitern verlassen (siehe Indians Flee Dubai as Dreams Crash - Fall out of Economic Crisis):
Zitat:Over the past 12 months, the number of Eastern European workers in Denmark has dropped by some 4,000, with employers tending to lay off the cheaper Eastern Europeans rather than their more expensive Danish counterparts, according to Berlingske Tidence.

Although Eastern Europeans tend to work for lower wages than their Danish construction colleagues, they also appear to be at the top of the list when layoffs have to be chosen as a result of the current recession.

According to figures from the Labour Market Board, the number of Eastern Europeans with an active working permit in Denmark has fallen from 12,784 to 8,814 – despite the fact that it has become much easier for companies to import foreign workers.


rund ein Drittel ist eine eindruckvolle Quote.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/updates.asp?id=65987
Das Thema aus Energiekrise in Pakistan ist noch nicht beendet: In Pakistan wird weiterhin regelmäßig der Strom abgeschaltet.
Zitat:Unscheduled and scheduled electricity loadshedding have continued to hamper the normal life of people across the country on Thursday.

According to reports, 10 to 12 hours of power cuts are being observed in various cities of Sindh, including Sukkur, Rohri, Panu Aqil, Sangrar and Khairpur.

Meanwhile, eight to 10 hours of loadshedding is being witnessed in urban areas of Hyderabad, Matli, Tandobago, Tando Muhammad Khan, Jamshoro, Badin, Nawabshah, Mirpurkhas, Umar Kot, Tharparkar, Ghotki and Obaro. However, rural areas bear prolonged power cuts of around 14 hours a day.

People held a protest demonstration against 16-hours of power outage in Thatta. The protestors staged a sit-in on the National Highway, causing a huge traffic jam.

In Faisalabad, domestic consumers of urban areas are bearing 10 to 12 hours of power cuts while in rural areas, this duration exceeds further.

Similarly, 14 to 16 hours of electricity loadshedding is being observed in various cities of Southern Punjab, including Multan, Muzaffargarh, Rahimyar Khan and Bahawalpur.


Das kann natürlich nicht wirklich überraschen, wo zu wenig ist, ist halt zu wenig: Strombedarf: 11000 MW, Verfügbar: 7000.

Aber Besserung ist in Sicht:
http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=139595

Zitat:Chashma Nuclear Power Plant (ChashNuPP-1) on Friday has started supplying 300 mega watt electricity to the nation grid system of the country after six months of its maintenance and upgradation.

Ein Kernkraftwerk mit 300MW Leistung geht an's Netz. Damit steht es dann 7300:11000.

Zitat:According to a media report, during the six months period, Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission experts modified the design of the ChashNuPP-1 in such a way the reliability in nuclear electricity generation has increased from 290 days to 325 days in a year.

Ok, das lohnt sich dann in 5 Jahren.
Zitat:On the other hand, ChashNuPP-2 is also in last phase of completion. Prominent Personalities of PAEC and Government would visit Chashma to review ChashNuPP-1 and ChashNuPP-2. According to the sources, arrangements in this respect are being finalized.

Und bald geht auch ein zweiter Reaktor ans Netz - naja, "bald" wie in "2011". Es bleibt also 7300:11000.

http://en.rian.ru/business/20090123/119772333.html
Zitat:Russia's crude production in 2008 declined 0.7% year-on-year to 488 million metric tons (9.8 mln bbl/d), while natural gas output increased 1.6% to 663 billion cubic meters, the Federal Statistics Service said on Friday.

0.7% weniger ist nicht viel, aber eben trotz Rekordölpreisen weniger als zuvor.

http://www.creditflux.com/Fundamentals/2009-01-28/Spanish-banks-seek-to-finetune-property-loans-reports-website
Während in den Vereinigten Arabischen Emeraten die Banken angehalten sind, ihre Ergebnisse nicht schnell zu veröffentlichen (siehe UAE: Banks are hereby required not to be in a hurry to publish their audited annual accounts), diskutieren spanische Banken mit der Zentralbank ...
Zitat:Spanish website Cotizalia reports that Spain's banks and cajas are negotiating on a one-to-one basis with the Bank of Spain to "fine-tune" their 2008 accounts in order to avoid taking catastrophic write-downs on loans. According to the article, the central bank has agreed to allow the banks to increase the "calendar of amortisation" of these troubled assets, which are said to be mostly loans to property developers.

nein, nicht etwa über schnellere Veröffentlichung, sondern über Bilanztuning zur Vermeidung von katastrophalen Abschreibungen.

Auch das ist nur bedingt vertrauensbildend.


http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/how-near-is-the-czech-economy-to-recession/
Zitat:Industrial Output Falls Like A Stone

Czech industrial production fell in November at the fastest rate since at least 2000, dropping by 17.4 percent year on year, following a decline of 7.6 percent in October.


Graphik: Industrieproduktion in Tschechien

Zitat:Exports were down 18% year-on-year in the month compared with a 10.7% fall in October. The statistics office report said the decline in exports was the highest in the entire history of the Czech Republic. Imports declined 13.2% compared with a 5.9% drop in October. Total imports slipped to CZK 195.2 billion from CZK 221.4 billion.

Graphik: Importe/Exporte

Zitat:In November, seasonally adjusted retail sales in retail trade (excluding cars) decreased by 0.3% month-on-month (at constant prices) and fell by 0.7%, year-on-year. As far as the automotive sector goes, seasonally adjusted sales were 3.4% down, m-o-m, and 5.1%. Sales were also down 0.7% month on month in October.

Graphik: Einzelhandelsumsätze

Graphik: BIP

Zitat:So What Is The Outlook For Czech GDP Growth in 2009?

Well, in trying to determine the future path of Czech GDP, the first thing we need to bear in mind - looking at the GDP chart above - is that the economy has been losing momentum since late 2006, that is the “stellar” catch-up growth component has been waning, and for some time. The second thing we need to bear in mind is that this is not necessarily a bad thing, since it means that the CR’s economy (unlike many others across the CEE) is certainly not on a boom bust cycle. The slowdown in quarter on quarter growth is also evident in the chart below. In fact in Q3 2008, Czech GDP grew by 1.0% in comparison to Q2 2008 and by 4.7% in comparison to Q3 2007.


Also: Aussichten schlecht, aber nicht so schlecht wie anderswo.

Wobei die große Unbekannte die Entwicklung bei Skoda ist - 2008 war ein Rekordjahr, 2009 wird definitiv keines (geplante Produktionskürzung in der ersten Hälfte 2009: 20%). Und Skoda alleine, ohne Zulieferer, hat einen Anteil vom tschechischen BIP von 4.5%.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/27/51716/banks-are-hereby-required-not-to-be-in-a-hurry-to-publish-their-audited-annual-accounts/
Banken in den vereinigten arabischen Emiraten sind von ihrer Zentralbank aufgefordert worden, sich nicht mit der Veröffentlichung ihrer Ergebnisse zu beeilen:
Zitat:The central bank asked banks not to rush to announce their results,” the banker, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Zawya Dow Jones. Under U.A.E. regulations, local banks have a 45-day period from Dec. 31 to report their results. “Banks are hereby required not to be in a hurry to publish their audited annual accounts,” Central Bank Governor Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi said in the letter, seen by Zawya Dow Jones. “It’s a very prudent step to ensure the central bank is able to provide guidance for consistency across all banks in the U.A.E., in particular regarding determination of fair value and on general provisioning such as portfolio level provisions,” said Sanjay Uppal, chief financial officer at Emirates NBD.

Ich bin sicher, daß dieser Schritt nur der Stärkung des Investorenvertrauens dienen kann. Es würde ja niemals Mißtrauen verursachen, wenn alle Banken einer Volkswirtschaft ihre Ergebnisse möglichst spät veröffentlichen.

Und ein weiteres Mosaiksteinchen:

Zitat:Dubai is offering incentives to tourists even though the winter months are generally the peak tourist season. Whereas 1Q-2008 saw a 90% occupancy rate, some hotels have reported 10-30% occupancy rates over the past few months.

Es scheint, als hätte Dubai zu viele Hotels.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-is-facing-return-of-threeday-week-1515307.html
Zitat:The prospect of the three-day week returned to haunt Britain yesterday as it emerged that ministers are considering paying firms to cut hours in order to survive the recession.
[...]
Major firms such as JCB have already downed tools for one day a week and are considering moving to a three-day week, with state help, if the recession gets worse. The firm's chief executive, Matthew Taylor, said that he is pressing Lord Mandelson, the Secretary of State for Business, to introduce compensation for workers if their hours are reduced. Some of the jobs earmarked for redundancy, he said, could be saved if the move is introduced by April.
[...]
Figures from the British Chambers of Commerce, which represent 100,000 firms, show that 39 per cent of businesses are planning to cut hours.

Ich dachte bisher, so Sachen wie 35 Stunden Wochen wären nicht mehr in, und nun kommen ausgerechnet die Briten mit 24 Stunden Wochen?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/4313724/UK-car-production-plunges-by-nearly-50pc.html
Zitat:A number of car makers such as Nissan, Honda and Jaguar Land Rover have cut production and jobs as the economic downturn hits credit and confidence among potential buyers of new cars.

A total of 53,823 cars were manufactured in the UK in December, a fall of 47.5pc from a year earlier, meaning 1.45m were manufactured in 2008 as a whole, a decline of 5.7pc.


Autoproduktion in Großbritannien:
2008-12: -47.5% gegenüber 2007-12.
2008: -5.7% gegenüber 2007.

Zitat:Paul Everitt, the chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said the figures demonstrated the "very dramatic" fall in demand for the final quarter of last year.

However, the fact that 76pc of all vehicles produced in the UK are for exports to more than 100 markets shows the strength and importance of the sector, he added.[/blockquote
Bei -47% noch von Stärke zu reden beweist, daß derjenige den Bodenkontakt verloren hat.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4331623/British-economy-is-on-the-brink.html
Zitat:The Bank of England says the average ratio of debt to equity within British banks is more than 30 to 1. In other words, the bank balance sheets are roughly 440 per cent of Britain's GDP.

As a result, the government is too small to help, in trying to bail out the banks, is in danger of chucking not just good money after bad but the entire economy after the banks.


Durchschnittliche Hebelung britischer Banken: 30.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/a4325216-e975-11dd-9535-0000779fd2ac.html
Homeowners who let out their properties last year rather than sell them for a cut price are being forced to reduce rents or risk losing their tenants as the market rapidly sours.
Letting agents saw a rush of so-called “accidental landlords” into the market last year, as falling house prices convinced property vendors to delay their sales.

Accidental landlords sind Hauseigentümer, die nicht zu niedrigen Preisen verkaufen wollten und daher die Häuser/Wohnungen vermietet haben.
Zitat:Many landlords have had to slash rents by around 20 per cent, according to agents. In the most oversupplied parts of London, falls in rental income have been as sharp as 30 per cent.

Mit der logischen Folge, daß die Mieten um 20% bis 30% eingebrochen sind...
Zitat:Even tenants who entered agreements six months ago are asking landlords to reduce the rent by 10 or even 20 per cent.

http://v2.ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/26/51661/london-property-datapoint-du-jour/
Zitat:It’s the percentage change in the average price of prime central London property from Sep. 2007 to Jan. 2009, adjusted for currency fluctuations:

Graphik: Londener Immobilienpreisverfall in verschiedenen Währungen
blockquote=none]The plus side for high-end London estate agents being that there are now plenty of foreign - particularly Middle Eastern - buyers looking to snap up some London property bargains. Full FT Weekend article here.
Das finde ich mal ausgesprochen eindrucksvoll.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a524770a-eb1c-11dd-bb6e-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Das Geld für die Finanzierung von "Chapter 11"-Pleiten ist ausgetrocknet, und man befürchtet zunehmende Zahlen von "Chapter 7"-Liquidationen.
Zitat:US companies face a greater risk of liquidation because sources of finance to let them reorganise under the country’s bankruptcy code are drying up in the global financial crisis.

In the US, companies on the verge of insolvency can restructure themselves under a Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection process, sometimes taking years.

But the credit crunch has severely limited the availability of so-called ‘debtor in possession’ financing that is vital to give them this second chance.

With previous big providers of DIP financing, such as GE Capital, shying away from the market, companies may have to rely on their existing lenders, says Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency.

It said on Friday there had been no substantial increase in DIP volumes in 2008, in spite of a jump in the number of bankruptcies, highlighting the reluctance of banks and investors to finance companies in bankruptcy.
[...]
Debtors also face the highest rates yet for DIP financing. The risk premium a debtor has to pay on the loan has more than doubled since 2001-2002, the height of the last downturn, according to Dealogic.
In 2001 the spread over Libor was 429bp versus 900bp now.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aW_panCbW3wo&refer=home
Zitat:Venture-capital investment dropped 33 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, hammered by a recession that drove software deals to their lowest levels in a decade and cut access to capital for alternative energy firms.

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/01/24/the-us-placed-about-13-trillion-of-treasuries-with-non-chinese-investors-in-2008/#more-4551
Brad Setser über die Käufer von US-Staatsanleihen:
Zitat:In 2007, my best estimate is that China accounted for $120.3b of the $247.2b increase in the outstanding stock of marketable Treasuries not held by the Fed. China absorbed 49% of the net increase.

In 2008, my best estimate** is that China bought $374.6 billion of the $1684.8 billion increase in the outstanding stock of marketable Treasuries not held by the Fed. China absorbed 22.2% of net issuance. Foreign central banks share of the total outstanding stock of marketable Treasuries not in the hands of the Fed also went down, falling from 47.2% at the end of 2007 to 44.5% at the end of 2008.***


Demnach ist China zwar ein wichtiger Abnehmer von US-Staatsanleihen, aber längst nicht so wichtig wie angenommen. Und insgesamt nehmen Zentralbanken "nur" 44.5% der US-Staatsanleihen auf.
Zitat von In der zweiten Hälfte 2008 sah das so aus:That implies that China bought a (stunning) $276 billion in Treasuries in the second half of 2008.

And it also implies that non-Chinese investors bought an (even more stunning) $892 billion of Treasuries in the second half of 2008.

Obviously, it would be a big deal if China stopped buying and started selling.**** But it would be much bigger deal if private investors lost their appetite for Treasuries.


Die alles entscheidende Frage ist: Verlieren die privaten Investoren ihren Appetit auf US-Staatsanleihen? Und wenn ja: verlieren sie ihn ganz oder treibt das nur die Zinssätze nach oben?

Apropos "private Investoren": das heißt in dem Kontext "alles außer Zentralbanken und deren direkten Ablegern".

Ein anderer Punkt zum Nachdenken: Setser schreibt China bought $374.6 billion ... of marketable Treasuries.
Laut http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh14.txt hatte China in den ersten 11 Monaten 2008 einen Handelsüberschuß zur USA von $246 Mrd. Das heißt, China kauft grob 50% mehr US-Staatsanleihen als es müßte, um den Handelsüberschuß loszuwerden, und das heißt, China investiert auch Gelder aus dem Handel mit anderen Ländern in den USA.
Was im Klartext heißt: China sieht US-Staatsanleihen als bessere Investition als die Staatsanleihen diverser anderer Handelspartner - und die Annahme, daß China langsam aus dem Dollar herausdiversifiziert, ist im Wesentlichen falsch - wie auch die Annahme, daß China viel Geld in Sachwerte investiert.


http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article970001.ece
Zitat:The State Board of Administration is supposed to play it safe. It protects $97.3-billion in pension money for nearly 1-million current and retired teachers, public employees and their families.

It invests an additional $25.3-billion for more than 800 school districts and state and local government entities to, among other things, pay police and teachers, buy books and health care for children and help hurricane victims.

But in audit after audit over the past eight years, the supposedly low-risk agency was warned again and again about making risky, complex investments, without proper controls.

Now, with the economy tanking, the overexposure to risk highlighted in those audits has come back to haunt the SBA. In the past 18 months, one-third of the agency's assets — $61.4-billion — have been wiped out.


Es ist schon eine bemerkenswerte Leistung für einen Pensionsfond - von dem man annehmen würde, daß Sicherheit der Anlagen allererste Priorität hat - rund ein Drittel des Wertes zu verlieren, oder?

Nicht ganz so schnell - wenn man natürlich über 8 Jahre sämtliche Empfehlungen und Warnungen, die in verschiedenen Audits geäußert wurden, in den Wind schlägt, ist der Verlust nicht mehr so bemerkenswert...

Zitat von Aber alles wird gut:"The SBA has recovered very nicely from every downturn,'' Williams said in December. "This one may be longer, it may be deeper, but it will pass. I don't think capitalism is dead.''

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/01/longterm-charts-of-the-financial-sector.html
Zitat:A look at long-term charts of the S&P 500 Financial sector is downright depressing. The first chart below dates back to 1990, and as shown, the sector closed at its lowest level since March 1995 yesterday. The sector is now down 79% from its highs in 2007. A chart of the sector all the way back to 1940 shows just how much the sector has fallen in such a short period of time.

Graphik: Finanzsektor im S&P 500 seit 1990
Graphik: Finanzsektor im S&P 500 seit 1940
Aus der zweiten Graphik kann man entnehmen, daß der Finanzsektor noch längst nicht das Niveau erreicht hat, daß er vor dem Ausbruch der Finanzalchemie in den 80ern hatte.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/ge-2009-to-be-extremely-difficult.html
Calculated Risk hat das hier aus der Investor Presentation von General Electric herausgefischt:
<p><div class='ufml-blockquote'><span>Zitat:</span><cite>Look at mortgage delinquencies: 10.74%!<p>And commercial delinquencies are rising faster too.</cite></div><br>Hypothekenzahlungsversäumnisse: 10.74%.<p>Und _alle_ Ausfälle stiegen deutlich von Q3 auf Q4 2008. Die werden in einem der nächsten Quartale einen erhöhten Abschreibungsbedarf haben.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aZEU3vrnWSW0
Zitat:Home prices in the Hamptons, New York’s oceanside resort favored by financiers and celebrities, fell 14 percent in the fourth quarter as Wall Street cut jobs and the U.S. recession spurred sales to plunge.

The median price in Long Island’s Hamptons and the North Fork slid to $690,000 from $800,000 a year earlier, appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said in a report today. The number of sales dropped 41 percent and the inventory of properties rose 19 percent.


was möglicherweise bedeutet, daß viel Zeug gar nicht mehr auf den Markt kommt, weil der Verkauf zu einem guten Preis eh' unmöglich ist.

Zitat:In a sign that the Hamptons luxury market is avoiding the property slump, prices rose 22 percent to a median of $1.16 million in the area south of the Montauk Highway. It includes Bridgehampton and East Hampton and the villages of Amagansett and Montauk, which have some of the most expensive homes.

Allerdings gehen die Preise der noch teureren Immobilien nach oben.

Zitat:
Many properties are also sitting on the market because sellers haven’t yet cut their price to reflect the economy’s decline, Miller said. On average, homes sold for 15.4 percent less than their asking price, compared with 8.1 percent a year ago.

“I have never seen sellers so disconnected from the market and my rough approximation is that they are about a year behind,” said Miller. “You had seven go-go years. That’s ingrained in the markets’ psyche.”


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6rFf0rRkpdk
Der Pensionsfonds aus USA: Pensionsfonds verliert $61.4 Mrd. hat hier investiert:
Zitat:Tishman Speyer Properties LP and BlackRock Realty, owner of Manhattan’s largest apartment complex, are relying on a reserve fund to pay debt on the property and have only six months of money left before it runs out, Fitch Ratings said in a report.

The fund for the Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village apartments has declined to $127.7 million as of Jan. 15, from $400 million when it was established. Property cash flow is not expected to improve from 2008 based on the borrower’s restated budget for 2009, the ratings company said.


Die haben also noch 127 Mio, und das soll für 6 Monate reichen -> Cash Burn Rate: 20 Mio. pro Monat.
Zitat:‘Although the property’s performance remains consistent, the cash flow generated from the property continues to require significant reserves to cover debt service obligations,” Fitch analysts Sue Ann Butera and Adam Fox in New York said.

Was bringt den Laden um? Die Schulden. Naja, nicht ungewöhnlich in der Branche...

Zitat:Tishman Speyer and BlackRock paid $5.4 billion for the properties in 2006 with plans to convert rent-regulated units to market rates. A $3 billion loan to finance the acquisition was bundled with commercial mortgages and sold as bonds. Fitch, Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service began to downgrade the commercial mortgage bonds in September because the owners were unable to convert as many units as planned.

5.4 Mrd für einen Appartmentkomplex in Manhattan? Naja, sportlich.
Zitat:The owners of the 80-acre, 11,200-unit complex have been facing higher costs to shift units to market price and less income than forecast from remaining rent-stabilized apartments. Overall expenses have also been higher than anticipated, Standard & Poor’s said in a report last year.

Aber 5.4 Mrd für 11200 Einheiten bedeutet, daß der Preis pro Appartment bei 480000 EUR gelegen haben muß. Das macht die Sache durchaus mehr sportlich.
Zitat:When MetLife sold the property in 2006, it estimated residents of 1,600 apartments would move out, die or have their rents reach the $2,000 deregulation threshold by the close of 2008, letting the landlord raise rents by any amount the market would bear. As of October, Tishman had only deregulated about 1,000 apartments, according to S&P, 38 percent fewer than MetLife estimated was possible.

Noch sportlicher wird die Sache dadurch, daß die meisten Appartments Mietobergrenzen von 2000 Dollar pro Monat hatten.
Nehmen wir mal an, die 3 Mrd Schulden müßten zu 5% Zins finanziert werden, dann würde das alleine 150 Mio. im Jahr kosten - bei 11200 Einheiten a 2000 Dollar pro Monat kommen aber meiner Rechnung nach nur 67 Mio im Jahr herein...

Was haben die Käufer geraucht? Wollten die wirklich allen Ernstes für die 9600 gebundenen Appartments 57 Mio. einnehmen, und für die 1600 anderen 100 Mio im Jahr = 5200 im Monat pro Appartment?
Und das wären nur die 5% für die 3 Mrd. schwere Anleihe...


http://www.aleablog.com/tarp-linked-nasdaq-government-relief-index-not-looking-good/
Diese wunderschön steile Graphik zeigt den NASDAQ TARP Index, der hier so beschrieben wird:
Zitat von none:The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (Nasdaq:NDAQ) today introduced the NASDAQ OMX Government Relief Index(sm) (Nasdaq:QGRI). The index enables investors to track the performance of U.S.-listed securities that are participating in U.S. government sponsored relief programs such as the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) or other direct government investments. The NASDAQ OMX Government Relief Index is the latest index launched by NASDAQ OMX Index Group and underscores its commitment to designing and calculating relevant world-class indexes.

Graphik: TARP-Index
Eine naheliegende Deutung ist, daß die betroffenen "securities" seit Anfang Januar um 35% gefallen sind...

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2850210520090128
Zitat:Wall Street firms slashed cash bonuses for New York City employees by 44 percent in 2008, as they reeled from record losses in the securities industry, New York State's comptroller said in a report issued on Wednesday.

Bonuses fell to $18.4 billion from $32.9 billion in 2007, the largest decline ever and the biggest percentage drop in more than 30 years, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said. The size of the bonus pool is the sixth-largest on record, he said.


Wir wollen mal festhalten: Das Jahr war für die die Boni vergebenden Unternehmen so desaströs wie kein anderes, die Verluste astronomisch, die Vernichtung des Kapitals der Besitzer unerreicht - und die Angestellten erhalten Boni. WOW.

http://www.vnbusinessnews.com/2009/01/vietnamese-trade-gap-narrows-imports.html

Zitat:The gap fell 88% to $300 million in January from $2.42 billion a year earlier, according to the General Statistics Office in Hanoi. The last time the shortfall narrowed was in 2006. Exports plunged 24% to $3.8 billion, while imports tumbled 45% to $4.1 billion.

Auf der "positiven" Seite: Das Handelsdefizit sinkt...

Zitat:The slump in January exports was led by a 52% drop in the value of oil shipments to $424 million, in spite of a 12% increase in crude exports by volume. Global crude oil prices have been on average 56% lower this month so far than during the same period in 2008.

‘Terrible Christmas’

Garment shipments tumbled 33% to $550 million, while footwear exports slumped 26% to $350 million.

“Lots of orders from the U.S. and Europe were canceled in November, and those would have gone out now,” said John Marron, managing director of Midas Clothing Ltd. in Ho Chi Minh City. “Buyers were expecting a terrible Christmas season, and wanted to see how much inventory and cash they would have afterward before placing any new orders.”

Aber, um beim positiven Grundtenor meiner Artikelserie zu bleiben: Alles wird gut.
http://www.vnbusinessnews.com/2009/01/grasp-opportunities-beat-recession.html

Zitat:Grasp opportunities, beat recession, minister tells businesses

Viet Nam has the potential to grow despite the global recession if it can grasp its opportunities, Minister of Planning and Investment Vo Hong Phuc told Sai Gon Giai Phong.

It depends on the global economic recovery. The crisis is forecast to last rather long. The US can recover from the crisis no earlier than the fourth quarter of this year.

However, the impact (on Viet Nam) will be lower than on other countries since agriculture still plays a major role in Viet Nam.

Though the crisis is present worldwide, it has mostly affected developed countries. Vietnam is a developing country, so it will not be affected much and will keep growing at a moderate rate.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast Vietnam’s growth rate will be 6.3% this year while the World Bank said 6.5%.
[...]
I think if Vietnamese enterprises understand how to make the most of their opportunities, they can overcome all difficulties.


Warum habe ich Zweifel daran? Vielleicht weil 6.5% Wachstum nur durch die Landwirtschaft doch ein wenig unrealistisch klingt, und weil die Exporte nicht wieder wachsen werden, bevor die Abnehmerländer sich erholen?
Eine wunderschöne Satire über Charttechnik aus dem elitetrader.com Forum:
Zitat:
The very rare black swan formation - note both feet and neck are complete and the rare vampire tooth variation is in place.

This is very bad. Very very bad.


Herrliche Satire

Gruß, Uwe

Wollen Sie den Digest abbestellen?