Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2009-01-08 10:05:09
Ausgabe 76
Anhängeskyline.jpg (139 KB)
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.


Skyline von Shanghai - aus Chips

Werk: Liu Jianhua - Unreal Scene (2008)

Foto: Cinghialino, von Flickr

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:Krise-des-Chemiekonzerns-LyondellBasell-ist-pleite/457709.html
Zitat:Der hoch verschuldete amerikanisch-niederländische Chemiekonzern LyondellBasell hat in den USA Gläubigerschutz beantragt. Das kontrollierte Insolvenzverfahren ist eine der größten Firmenpleiten der jüngsten Zeit in den USA.

Betroffen sei neben den US-Konzernteilen auch die deutsche Holdinggesellschaft Basell Germany, teilte der weltweit drittgrößte Petrochemiekonzern am Dienstagabend mit. Insgesamt hätten sich rund 80 Tochtergesellschaften an dem Schritt beteiligt. Das Unternehmen leidet unter einer Schuldenlast von rund 26 Mrd. $. Am Sonntag war die Frist für eine Umschuldung abgelaufen.


Da hatte die Gerüchteküche recht - und schnell kam das Ende außerdem.

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/01/2008-country-returns.html
Man kann nicht sagen, daß in 2008 alle Aktienmärkte abgestürzt sind, aber... fast alle.
Graphik: Weltweite Aktienmärkte in 2008

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2_wSc2UyOmk&refer=home
Zitat:Oil traders are seeking as many as 10 supertankers to store crude, potentially taking the amount hoarded at sea to almost five days of European Union demand, according to Frontline Ltd., the largest owner of the vessels.

About 25 of the carriers, each able to hold about 2 million barrels of crude, were already hired for storage. There are enquiries for 5 to 10 more, Jens Martin Jensen, Singapore-based interim chief executive officer of the company’s management unit, said by phone today. Traders are storing crude to take advantage of higher prices for supply in the future.

Thirty-five supertankers represent about 7 percent of the global fleet of very large crude carriers, according to data from London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. Storing oil in tankers may buoy rental rates that fell by a record 78 percent last year as slower economic growth sapped demand for energy.


Ist das nun eine Wette auf Contango oder die Bildung einer kriminellen Vereinigung zum Hochtreiben der Ölpreise?

Ansonsten habe ich eben noch einen Tankerindex bei Bloomberg "entdeckt":
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=TANKER%3AIND
Graphik: Tankerindex


http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/intel-business-deteriorates-rapidly.html
Zitat:Intel provides another example of the rapidly deteriorating business environment.

On Oct 14th, Intel projected revenue for Q4 2008:

[margin=0 0 0 2]Revenue: Between $10.1 billion and $10.9 billion.[/margin]

Then Intel warned on November 12th and lowered their revenue projection to $8.7 billion to $9.3 billion:

[margin=0 0 0 2]Intel Corporation today announced that fourth-quarter business will be below the company's previous outlook. The company now expects fourth-quarter revenue to be $9 billion, plus or minus $300 million, lower than the previous expectation of between $10.1 billion and $10.9 billion. Revenue is being affected by significantly weaker than expected demand in all geographies and market segments. In addition, the PC supply chain is aggressively reducing component inventories.[/margin]

And now today Intel reported a significant miss: Intel Announces Preliminary Fourth-Quarter Financial Information

[margin=0 0 0 2]Intel Corporation today announced preliminary fourth-quarter financial information with revenue of approximately $8.2 billion, down 20 percent sequentially and down 23 percent year over year. Revenue will be lower than the company's previous expectation, provided on Nov. 12, 2008, as a result of further weakness in end demand and inventory reductions by its customers in the global PC supply chain.[/margin]

This is a pretty significant decline in revenues and suggests much lower business investment in equipment and software in Q4 2008.


23% weniger Einnahmen gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Das ist beeindruckend.

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/01/05/the-china-not-investing-corporation/
Ein wunderschöner Artikeltitel...
Zitat:“Zhang Hongli, executive vice president of the China Investment Corp (CIC), said the $200 billion fund would be prudent in making decisions and slow the pace of its asset investments as global financial markets remained turbulent and the world economy fell into recession. “From September of last year, CIC already adjusted its investment plans for the start of this year,” Zhang said according to the Caijing magazine Web site, which cited a report by the official Xinhua news agency. “Now, cash is king and we will try as far as possible not to make investments,” he was reported as saying.”

Welche feine Selbstironie Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

http://www.badische-zeitung.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/chinesischer-computerriese-lenovo-streicht-tausende-stellen--10067883.html
Zitat:Die Absatzzahlen sind eingebrochen – jetzt muss der Computergigant Lenovo aus China einen folgenschweren Schritt tun. Infolge der weltweiten Wirstchaftskrise streicht der Konzern weltweit rund 2500 Jobs .

Dies entspricht elf Prozent aller Stellen im Konzern.Das Unternehmen teilte am Donnerstag mit, auf diese Weise sollten rund 300 Millionen Dollar eingespart werden.

Grund für den Sparkurs seien sinkende Verkaufszahlen weltweit – vor allem aber in der Volksrepublik. Lenovo ist der viertgrößte PC-Hersteller weltweit.


http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=949
Zitat:Beijing: The worst in a decade

For those who have worked in the Beijing real estate industry over the past 10 years, 2008 has been the worst. Latest figures revealed by the Beijing Bureau of Statistics show that housing sales area between January and November totaled 7.389 million square meters, a drop of 52.4% over the same period of 2007.

A 50+% decrease in sales leaves much new housing vacant. By the end of December, 2008, the number of salable houses and apartments under construction in Beijing reached 188,031, while finished but unsold houses and apartments totaled 174,290, leaving over 360,000 units on the market. If they are sold at 120,000 a year, the rate in 2007, it will take at least 3 years to sell them all, and that’s if no more are built.


Peking: Der Vorrat an Häusern - ob fertiggestellt oder im Bau - reicht für 3 Jahre. In den USA ist's knapp ein Jahr - bei den derzeitigen Verkaufszahlen, nicht denen vom letzten Jahr.

Das scheint zwar der schlimmste Überhang in China zu sein, aber anderswo sieht's nur saumieserabel statt katastrophal aus:

Zitat:In Nanjing, 4.44 million square meters of housing was sold in 2008. A local government department declared on its website that Nanjing’s remaining salable units totaled 51,618. At the 2007 rate, it will take about 15 months to sell them all

Tja, was wird die Verkaufszahl in 2009 wohl sein?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/06/content_10614803.htm
Zitat:China faces a threat of "abnormal" cross-border capital flow because of global financial tumult, the country's foreign exchange regulator said Tuesday.

Such capital movement, resulting from the world economic slowdown and financial crisis, will bring with it potential risks, said Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

China has cut interest rates and seen its economy slowing down since the global financial crisis hit the country's exporters. That could reduce its attraction to foreign investors and lead to capital outflows.

More money flowing out of the border could increase the risk of liquidity strain in the country, which is especially dangerous amid the global financial crisis.


Ausländisches spekulatives Geld - nach China geflossen wegen der Hoffnung auf langsame Aufwertung des Yuan - fließt ab. Und das kann Folgen für die Liquiditätsversorgung im Land haben (Übersetzung: Es führt zu mehr Unternehmensinsolvenzen).
Zitat:China's central bank said Tuesday it will also strengthen scrutiny of cross-border capital flows and study ways to tackle "abnormal changes" in the balance of payments.

Oder vielleicht auch nicht, wenn ich das mal frei als "wir werden euch daran hindern, euer Geld abzuziehen" interpretiere.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/05/content_10608146.htm
Zitat von Dezember2008:Hong Kong's housing market is recovering in December from the November gloom but was still far behind the boom in 2007, revealed the Land Registry's latest statistics here Monday.

The Land Registry recorded 5,437 registration of flat sale and purchase agreements in December, up 43.6 percent from November but still down 65.1 percent from the same period in 2007.

Using a 12-month moving average, the figure for December, however, represented an 8.2 percent drop on November and a 22.2 percent dip on December 2007.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/06/content_10614435.htm

Zitat von Alles wird gut!!!19!:There were 113,298 sale and purchase agreements for all types of building units registered in 2008 in Hong Kong, Hong Kong Land Registry said on Tuesday.

The figure is down 22.2 percent on 2007 but up 14.3 percent on 2006.

The total consideration involved in these agreements was 413.11billion HK dollars (53.34 billion U.S. dollars), down 21.4 percent on 2007 but up 31.1 percent on 2006.


Verkaufszahlen -22.2% ggü. 2007 und +14.3% ggü. 2006.
Umsatz -21.4% ggü. 2007 und +31.1% ggü. 2006. Das müßte man noch um die Inflation bereinigen, dann wird die 2008er-Zahl noch etwas schlimmer.

Zitat von none:
There were 162,912 assignments of building units lodged for registration in 2008, up 2.9 percent on 2007 and 29.3 percent on 2006.

Baugenehmigungen oder Anträge auf selbige: _Zunehmend_. Oops. Ist das der Versuch, einen fallenden Markt durch mehr Überangebot zu stabilisieren?

Untertitel: Zahlen lügen nicht, sie täuschen nur.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/02/content_10591181.htm

Zitat:The value of total retail sales of Hong Kong in November, provisionally estimated at 20.5 billion HK dollars (2.65 billion U.S. dollars), went up 1.1 percent over a year earlier, official figures released Friday indicated.

Umsatz: +1.1%.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/02/content_10595196.htm
Zitat:After netting out the effect of price changes over the same period, however, the volume of total retail sales fell 2.8 percent over a year earlier in November.

Inflationsbereinigt: -2.8%.

Wenn man unterstellt, daß Hong Kong etwas stabilere Verhältnisse als China hat, dann muß es in China noch deutlich schlimmer sein (und ich habe nicht einen Bericht gefunden, der dagegen gesprochen hätte) - und wie in aller Welt die dann in Q4/2008 um eine technische Rezession herumgekommen sein könnten, erschließt sich mir nicht.


http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/06/content_10613212.htm
Einzelberichte über den chinesischen EDV-Binnenmarkt:
Zitat:However, although the present selling was higher than the previous months, it did not reach the level in the same period of 2007. Now the shop sells 300 notebook PCs per month, but it sold more than 500 PCs per month in 2007.

-40% weniger Notebooks.

Zitat:Wu Linguo, another electronics dealer who opened 22 storefronts in Zhongguancun said that his company suffered a 30 percent decrease in sales in November last year compared to the previous month, while December saw another 15 percent drop.

Oktober->November: -30% Umsatz.
November->Dezember: -15% Umsatz.
Zusammen: -40%.

Zitat:Li Zhongjin, chief business officer of Dinghao Market, another major mall here, said earlier last month that about 5 percent of electronics shops in Zhongguancun area had gone out of business. Other industry insiders estimated a 30 percent drop of wholesale volume in Zhongguancun.

Ich dachte, die Binnenkonjuktur sollte den Exportausfall ausgleichen und nicht verschlimmern?

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-01/07/content_10618533.htm
Zitat:The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the aggregate operating profits for enterprises with annual sales of at least 5 million yuan grew only 4.9 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months of last year, marking the weakest performance since May 2002.

Those companies' profits grew 19.4 percent year-on-year in the first eight months of last year and 36.7 percent in 2007, so the 4.9-percent growth rate indicated a freefall-style collapse, in line with the recent sharp declines in industrial output and export growth.


Die Gewinne der Unternehmen mit mindestens 5 Mio. Yuan Jahresumsatz:
2007: +36.7%
2008, Januar bis August: +19.4%
2008 insgesamt: +4.9%.
Das ist ein massiver Einbruch - rein rechnerisch müssen die letzten 4 Monate, auf ein Jahr hochgerechnet, bei -14% gelegen haben.

Daneben hat der Artikel noch einen Hinweis zur Binnennachfrage in China:

Zitat:"The good news is we still have a full house today. The bad news? Our daily sales have dropped 30 percent since November. Customers who used to buy two bottles of liquor now buy only one bottle."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/16c7ceba-dcbe-11dd-a2a9-000077b07658.html
Heute war die erste Staatsanleihenausgabe der Eurozone in 2009, und was passierte?
Zitat:Investors shunned one of the most liquid and safest assets in the world on Wednesday as a German bond auction failed in a warning for governments seeking to raise record amounts of debt to stimulate their slowing economies.

It is the first eurozone bond auction of the year and an ominous sign of potential trouble ahead for governments around the world, with an estimated $3,000bn expected to be issued in sovereign debt this year – three times more than in 2008.

The auction of 10-year bonds failed to attract enough bids to reach the €6bn the government wanted to raise. Although a number of German bond auctions failed last year, it was almost unheard of before the credit crisis.


Versteigert wurden 6 Mrd, geboten wurden 5,237 Mrd, und zugeteilt 4,058 Mrd.

Das schließt sich nahtlos an die Versteigerung 10jähriger im November an (siehe Deutsche Staatsanleihen).


http://www.badische-zeitung.de/nachrichten/wirtschaft/der-deutsche-export-bricht-ein
Zitat:Der Exportweltmeister Deutschland hat im November 2008 eine heftige Schlappe hinnehmen müssen: Die Ausfuhren brachen um fast elf Prozent im Vergleich zum Vormonat ein – das ist der stärkste Rückgang seit 1990.

Das beantwortet, wenn auch spät, meine Frage aus Economists über Chinas Zahlen: "und der Exportweltmeister?", die ich mir gestellt hatte, als die chinesischen Exporte (in demselben November) und 2.4% eingebrochen waren.

Zitat:Der Wert der Ausfuhren betrug 77,1 Milliarden. Das teilte das Statistische Bundesamt mit. Auf Jahressicht seien die Ausfuhren um 11,8 Prozent zurückgegangen.

Dem Statistischen Bundesamt zufolge wurden Waren im Wert von 67,4 Milliarden Euro eingeführt – 5,6 Prozent weniger als im Vormonat und 0,9 Prozent weniger als im Vorjahresmonat.


Tja, aber was tun, wenn der Rest der Welt unsere Waren nicht will?

btw: Diese Nachricht wird jeglichen Verstand in Regierung und Opposition ausschalten und für richtig Geldverschwendung sorgen. Und ich wette, alle Maßnahmen gehen am eigentlichen Problem "Binnennachfrage" vorbei.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/07/50849/from-the-desk-of-b-ramalinga-raju/
Zitat:The chairman of Satyam Computer Services, which ranks as India’s fourth-largest software operation, has fessed up to years of book-cooking. Shares in the company crashed 80 per cent on Wednesday, taking the wider Indian stock market down 7 per cent.

Satyam Computer - Nummer vier unter den indischen Softwareherstellern - hat über Jahre die Bücher frisiert... und das nicht um ganz kleine Summen.

http://www.emfis.de/global/global/nachrichten/beitrag/id/Bilanz_Skandal_bei_Satyam_Aktie_minus_81_Prozent_ID76657.html

Zitat:Wie Raju in einem offenen Brief an die Bangkok Stock Exchane mitteilte, hätten von den in der Bilanz ausgewiesenen 53,61 Milliarden Rupien an Barmitteln und Liquiditätsreserven 50,4 Milliarden Rupien nicht existiert. Die operative Marge habe im dritten Quartal nicht bei 24 Prozent – wie berichtet – sondern nur bei 3 Prozent des Umsatzes gelegen. Zugleich sei der Umsatz mit 21 Milliarden Rupien um 22 Prozent niedriger als ausgewiesen gewesen.

Vergangene Woche war der Konzern mit dem Plan gescheitert, zwei größere Firmen, die nicht aus dem IT-Sektor stammten, zu übernehmen. Raja räumte heute ein, dass diese Transaktion der letzte Versuch gewesen sei, die Bilanz mit fingierten Vermögenswerten aufzublähen. Im Gegenzug habe er aus fremden Quellen 12,3 Milliarden Rupien aufgetrieben und in das Unternehmen geschleust, um Satyam operativ am Laufen zu halten.


Das Verhältnis Rupie:Dollar ist etwa 50:1.

btw: Die 12.3 Mrd. könnte ein Übersetzungsfehler sein, das sind wahrscheinlich eher 1.23 Mrd.

Zurück zu Alphaville und einem Auszug aus dem Geständnis:

Zitat:4. None of the board members, past or present, had any knowledge of the situation in which the company is placed. Even business leaders and senior executives in the company, such as, Ram Mynampati, Subu D, T.R. Anand, Keshab Panda, Virender Agarwal, A.S. Murthy, Hari T, S V Krishnan, Vijay Prasad, Manish Mehta, Murli V, Sriram Papani, Kiran Kavale, Joe Lagioia, Ravindra Penumetsa, Jayaraman and Prabhakar Gupta are unaware of the real situation as against the books of accounts.

"Niemand außer mir hat irgendetwas gewußt"?

Naja, dann entläßt man die genannten eben nicht wegen Bilanzfälschung, sondern Unfähigkeit.

Satyam scheint sowieso ein unheimlich sauberes Unternehmen zu sein:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Infotech/Software/Old_client_files_forgery_lawsuit_against_Satyam/articleshow/3041117.cms

Zitat:A small innovator company, which Satyam Computer Services once worked for when the dotcom boom started in 1997, has now come back to
haunt the billion-dollar technology services firm. The innovator firm, Upaid, has filed a lawsuit in a Texas court alleging that Satyam provided forged documents to Upaid in patents filing that eventually resulted in the company losing its patents infringement case against telecom giants Qualcomm and Verizon.

Fälschung von Dokumenten, die in Patentschriften eingingen.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Infotech/World_Bank_bans_Satyam_for_8_years/articleshow/3882667.cms
Zitat:The
World Bank on Tuesday confirmed an earlier report that it has barred Satyam Computer Services from doing business with it for eight years, starting September this year, due to data theft and paying bribes to its staff.

Datendiebstahl und Bestechung bei der Weltbank.

Aber auf der positiven Seite steht das zu Buche:
http://www.goldenpeacockawards.com/GPA_RESULTS_ANNOUNCEMENT_2008.pdf
[blockquite]GOLDEN PEACOCK GLOBAL AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE IN CORPORATE GOVERNANCE – 2008
4. Satyam Computer Services : Under Risk Management and Compliance Issues
Ja, so ein Unternehmen verdient auch einen Preis für Risikomanangement und Compliance.

Ich möchte auch die Buchprüfungsgesellschaft für einen Sonderpreis vorschlagen (nein, ich weiß nicht, wer das ist - aber egal wer's war: schließen).


http://www.reuters.com/article/reuterscomService5/idUSTRE5011W520090102
Zitat:December car sales halved from the same period a year ago to 72,377 units in the largest year-on-year fall in the last eight months, the industry group said.

Dezember: halbiert gegenüber dem Vorjahr (anderswo habe ich -49.9% gelesen).

Zitat:Spanish car sales fell 28.1 percent in 2008, car industry group ANFAC said on Friday, the sharpest ever yearly drop, due to Spaniards cutting back spending as their country heads toward recession.

2008 insgesamt: -28.1%.

... und dann eine massive Bankenrettung via Kapitalerhöhungen.

Ich frage mich allerdings, wie der spanische Staat das hinbekommen will - vor dem verlorenen Jahrzehnt und soundsovielen Rettungsaktionen war der japanische Staat finanziell gesund, und die Verbraucher waren es sowieso.
Spanien hat da ganz andere Voraussetzungen.

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-and-demography/why-spains-economic-crisis-is-something-more-than-a-housing-slump/
Edward Hughes schreibt über Spanien... und wieder nichts, was eine tolle Zukunft verheißt.

Zitat:One of the reasons why there is little room for optimism in the Spanish case is the need to correct the current account deficit, which, while it is now steadily falling back as internal demand weakens, is still running at something like an 8% of GDP annual rate. The deficit dropped again in October, according to the latest data from the Bank of Spain, hitting 7.86 billion euros, down from 8.11 billion euros in September and 9.02 billion euros in October 2007. As can be seen in the chart (below) the deficit has now been dropping steadily since March last year. The driving force behind the fall is more a question of declining imports than rising exports though, and, please note the very important point that the income account, which is the net balance of interest paid on loans and dividends on equities, still continues to deteriorate.

Außenhandelsdefizit: um die 8%.
Die Importe fallen, daher fällt es mit, aber die Zinszahlungen überschreiten die Einnahmen aus Anlagen, und das Verhältnis wird schlimmer.

Zitat:The reason for the deterioration in the income account isn’t that hard to find, it lies in the growing external indebtedness of the Spanish economy (see chart below). This debt has now risen from 870 billion euros in Q3 2004 (or around 90% of GDP) to 1,686 billion euros in Q3 2008 (or around 155% of GDP). In fact the size of the debt has more or less doubled over this period, and it is still rising. The reason for the increase in debt isn’t hard to find, since it lies in the need to attract funds to finance the large increase in the goods and services trade deficit which was created by attempting to run the Spanish economy so far above what could be termed its “capacity”, and for so long.

Der Grund dafür? Auslandsschulden - gestiegen von 870 Mrd. Euro (Q3 2004, = 90% des BSP) auf 1686 Mrd. Euro (Q3 2008, = 155% des BSP).
Graphik: spanische Auslandsschulden

Zitat:So basically Spain’s problem isn’t simply a construction boom that went wrong. Spain’s current economic malaise has deep structural roots that go back over a number of years - probably the best part of a decade. Basically Spain’s economy overheated way beyond capacity for at least six years, and the smoking gun for this is what happened to the current account deficit (see chart below), as imports were steadily sucked in to meet the voracious demand, that was, of course, fuelled by the large rise in construction activity and the wealth-effect of steadily rising property prices.

Graphik: Monatliches Defizit

Zitat:Finally, (below), one last chart on Japan, again prepared by the Japanese economist Richard Koo. The thick blue line [...] shows the perception of large businesses of the willingness of banks to lend to them, as surveyed by the Bank of Japan for the Tankan index. You will note the line plunges twice, and it is the second plunge, or “credit crunch”, which interests me at the moment. This was the crunch that finally drove Japan decisively off into deflation, and produced that now famed “liquidity trap”. Basically the first credit crunch was resolved via large scale government contruction spending, the guaranteeing of bank deposits, and the swallowing by the banks of a large number of non-performing loans. Does all this sound familiar? It should. But then Japan reached a point were the financial system could struggle forward no further. So the crunch broke out again, and this time the only way to resolve the problem was with two massive injections of capital into the banking system. These injections served to push the Japan government debt to GDP ratio sharply upwards, and it is this part of the story that I feel we will see repeating itself here in Spain. Maybe in 2010, maybe in 2011. It all depends how far the system can limp forward before it folds in on itself.

Graphik: Kreditsituation in Japan

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/06/50799/uk-house-prices-nearly-where-they-should-be/
FT Alphaville hat diese schöne Graphik:
Graphik: Langzeithauspreistrend in .UK
und schließt daraus
Zitat:… where they should be if you’re a fan of mean reversion anyway. But still nowhere near as low as they will be if previous downward trends are to be believed (more like nearly halfway there).

daß die Hauspreise fast den halben Sturz hinter sich haben.

Ich möchte das um eine Kleinigkeit ergänzen: Demnächst fällt auch die Trendlinie wieder - der Sturz wird noch ein kleines bischen länger dauern.

Und er ist jetzt schon nicht ohne...


http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/01/december_auto_s_1.html

Year-over-year change in monthly sales
Category Nov 2008 Dec 2008
domestic cars -39.9% -33.9%
domestic trucks -36.9% -38.8%
imported cars -29.5% -31.9%
imported trucks -35.8% -31.4%
all vehicles -36.7% -35.6%

Das heißt, Importeure schneiden immer noch besser, wenn auch fürchterlich schlecht ab.

Zitat:In early 2008, the primary problem for U.S. auto manufacturers was the sharp hike in gasoline prices, which explains the collapse of sales of SUVs at the same time that imports of smaller cars were on the way up.
[...]
By contrast, the current problems for the auto sector resulted from the broad collapse in overall consumer spending. With the aggregate picture as bleak as it is, consumers seem reluctant to buy any kind of car, regardless of the price of gasoline.

Früh in 2008 war das Problem der US-Hersteller der Spritpreis - daher sind die Verkäufe von SUV eingebrochen während gleichzeitig die Importe von Kleinwagen stiegen. Das derzeitige Problem ist, daß Käufer grundsätzlich zögern, Geld auszugeben.

Das und die Graphiken im Artikel bestätigen meine Vermutungen.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123117246022354083.html
Zitat:About 20% of banks reduced credit limits on existing credit cards of prime borrowers and 60% of banks lowered limits for nonprime borrowers, according to the Federal Reserve's latest survey of senior loan officers in October.
Risikoaversion - als wäre da irgendwo eine Krise?
Zitat:"We are taking a more aggressive look at accounts to control risk given the current economic environment," said a spokeswoman for Bank of America Corp. "We are closing accounts with zero balances that have been inactive for more than a year and may adjust customers' credit lines up or down" based on "their risk profile and performance," she said.

A spokeswoman for J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said "we will lower credit lines for customers who are showing signs of increased risk or inactivity."


Seufz. Mit anderen Worten: immer einen Cent Schulden auf der Kreditkarte lassen, wenn man sie denn behalten will.

Aber die Sache hat noch ganz andere Nebenwirkungen:

Zitat:About 30% of your credit score is based on the percentage of your credit limit you've actually used, or the "credit utilization ratio," said Gail Cunningham, senior director of public relations for the National Foundation for Credit Counseling. A lower credit limit can lead to a higher utilization ratio and negatively impact your score.

Wenn so eine Kreditkartenfirma das Limit auf der Karte senkt, kann das zu einer Verschlechterung der Risikobewertung führen (und, so stelle ich mir vor, in der nächsten Runde dann zu einer weiteren Senkung des Limits Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht ).
Zitat:Many banks are also closing inactive cards to avoid the liability of keeping credit lines open to people who haven't used them in the past but might tap as financial situations worsen.

This can also have a negative impact on your credit score by increasing the ratio of outstanding debt to available credit. A loss of a long-standing credit card may also shorten your credit history.


Ist dieses System marode...


http://www.wtvn.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=&article=4808443
Zitat:Ohio is one of several states where unemployment claims systems have buckled under an onslaught of telephone calls and web site hits.

The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services says callers have been unable to get through this week.

Spokesman Brian Harter said Tuesday the section of the state's web site that enables people to make claims online is down.

Harter said the telephone hot line generally receives about 7,500 calls a day, but has been getting about 80,000 each of the past two days.


Die Telefonleitungen und die Webseiten des "Department of Job and Family Services" in Ohio sind hoffnungslos überlastet - und das wohl weniger, weil Unternehmen gerade massiv einstellen...
Zitat:He expected the agency to hire temporary help to handle the increase in benefit requests.

Auf der anderen Seite stellt das Arbeitsamt jetzt - temporär (vielleicht) - Leute ein.
Zitat:Unemployment claims systems in New York and North Carolina are experiencing similar problems due to a surge in callers.

Eine weitere Bestätigung:
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=6586680

Zitat:Systems in New York, North Carolina and Ohio were shut down completely by technical glitches and heavy volume, and labor officials in several other states are reporting higher-than-normal use.

Ähnlich ist es in North Carolina:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/06/north-carolina-jobless-cl_n_155786.html

Zitat:Unemployment is up so much in North Carolina that the state's Internet site for benefits crashed twice this week under a rush of claims.

Once the system was back up, the state set one-day records both for the amount of unemployment benefits paid and for the number of transactions, officials said Tuesday.

The number of people trying to sign up online for new or continuing benefits was as much as triple pre-recession levels Sunday and Monday, the Employment Security Commission said. That volume, together with a phone line problem, overwhelmed the agency's computers and prevented some people from filing claims.


Rekorde der negativen Sorte.
Zitat:
The phone line problem was fixed Sunday, when 74,000 people tried to access the system, and the ESC thought the overload problem had been handled as well. But the system failed again Monday when about 55,000 people tried to file.

Hm.

Zitat:The recession has pushed the jobless rate in North Carolina to 7.9 percent in November, the last month for which figures are available. That was the highest since October 1983.

Also eigentlich schreit das ja geradezu danach, sehr viel Geld auf die EDV zu werfen.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/US-companies-face-409-billion-rb-13997269.html
Zitat:Volatile markets have saddled U.S. companies with a $409 billion deficit on pension plans, reversing a $60 billion surplus a year earlier, and will cut into earnings in 2009, consulting firm Mercer said.

As of December 31, pension plans among members of the Standard & Poor's 1500 had $1.21 trillion of assets and $1.62 trillion of liabilities, Mercer said in a report released on Wednesday. At the end of 2007, pension plan assets totaled $1.66 trillion and liabilities totaled about $1.6 trillion, Mercer said.

Mercer estimated pension expenses will increase to about $70 billion this year from $10 billion in 2008, reducing overall profitability by about 8 percent.


2007: Pensionsverpflichtungen: 1600 Mrd., Anlagewert: 1660 Mrd.
2008: Pensionsverpflichtungen: 1620 Mrd., Anlagewert: 1210 Mrd.
-28%...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/01/fed-fears-long-recession.html
Zitat von From the FOMC Minutes:All told, real GDP was expected to fall much more sharply in the first half of 2009 than previously anticipated, before slowly recovering over the remainder of the year as the stimulus from monetary and assumed fiscal policy actions gained traction and the turmoil in the financial system began to recede. Real GDP was projected to decline for 2009 as a whole and to rise at a pace slightly above the rate of potential growth in 2010. Amid the weaker outlook for economic activity over the next year, the unemployment rate was likely to rise significantly into 2010, to a level higher than projected at the time of the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. The disinflationary effects of increased slack in resource utilization, diminished pressures from energy and materials prices, declines in import prices, and further moderate reductions in inflation expectations caused the staff to reduce its forecast for both core and overall PCE inflation. Core inflation was projected to slow considerably in 2009 and then to edge down further in 2010.

Kerninflation sinkt deutlich in 2009 und wird 2010 weiter fallen => Deflation.
"disinflationary effects ..." => Deflation.
Bruttosozialprodukt wird in ganz 2009 fallen, und in 2010 wieder steigen.

Mich dünkt, da ist ein Anflug von Realismus zu bemerken.

Gruß, Uwe

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