Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2008-12-31 23:23:54
Ausgabe 74
AnhängeScreenshot-3.png (43 KB),Screenshot-BRIC.png (40 KB),Screenshot-Balt+Is.png (41 KB),masterfraud.png (185 KB)
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Beginnen will ich diesmal mit einem Meisterwerk:

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/24/business/24views.html
Zitat:Tribune looks to be the megadeal most at risk. Sam Zell’s $12 billion buyout of the company, the publisher of The Los Angeles Times and The Chicago Tribune, was financed nearly entirely with debt. Operating cash flow was down by 66 percent in the third quarter. Tribune is on the cusp of breaching its debt covenants, and some of its bonds trade for as little as 9 cents on the dollar. With the advertising market deteriorating in line with the economy, Tribune has few easy options to stabilize its revenue.
Ich kann mich erinnern, daß ich bei 12 Mrd Dollar für einen Zeitungsverlag mehr als nur ein bischen erstaunt war, von daher erstaunt mich jetzt weniger, daß das schief geht. "9 cent on the dollar".
Zitat:Another deal facing big challenges is Freescale, the semiconductor company that Carlyle, TPG, Blackstone and Permira bought for $17.6 billion in 2006. Carlyle recently wrote down its stake in Freescale to half of what it paid. One big problem is that 90 percent of Freescale’s sales in its cellular products division are tied to Motorola, whose handset sales have declined sharply. Freescale is trying to sell the division, but it needs to fetch enough to make a big dent in its debt.
und auch das war schon damals kein Schnäppchen.
Zitat:The Spanish-language broadcaster Univision was the subject of a heated bidding war in the summer of 2006 before a group led by Haim Saban paid $13.7 billion to acquire it. It is now having problems on several fronts. Debt is up by $845 million since the end of last year, and cash flow is falling. Next year, its debt-to-operating-cash-flow ratio will be a huge 13 times, assuming it refinances some of the borrowings it has coming due.

Der Artikel nennt noch einige LBOs, die in mehr oder weniger großen Schwierigkeiten stecken:
Harrah’s Entertainment, HCA und Clear Channel Communications.


http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=stock-market-strategy-halts-fishing-collapse
Zitat:Perhaps the best way to fight the decades-long decline of fish populations, primarily from overfishing, is to give the fishing industry clearer incentives to preserve them. That conclusion leapt from a recent analysis of the effect of “catch share” incentives by resource economist Christopher Costello and others at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

The researchers analyzed more than 11,000 fisheries over 50 years and found that those being managed using catch shares were about half as likely to collapse as those without catch shares. And when fisheries switched to catch shares, fish populations stopped declining and, according to some analyses, may have reversed course. “I’ll be honest,” Costello says, “I was really surprised” by the size of the effect.

The system of catch shares works somewhat like a stock market: individual fishers can net a designated percentage of the total amount of a species set aside for fishing annually. The cap on each fish type is adjusted yearly by the government according to how the species is faring. If the population increases, the shares increase in value, too. And fishers can buy and sell shares to one another.

Catch shares give fishers a financial motive to treat the ocean with care, because they are literally invested in the future of their quarry.


Richtig überraschend ist das nicht, denn daß Fischfangquoten funktionieren ist eh' bekannt - aber daß der Handel mit Quoten zumindest keine negativen Auswirkungen hat, ist eine ausgesprochen erfreuliche Nachricht - im Hinblick auf Emissionshandel und den Umgang mit der Umwelt überhaupt.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=acGxZX3NKc1I&refer=transportation
Zitat:Passenger traffic, or kilometers flown multiplied by the number of travelers, slumped 4.6 percent from a year earlier, IATA said today in a statement on its Web site. That compares with a 1.3 percent decline in October and a 2.9 percent drop in September. Freight traffic plunged almost 14 percent, the sixth straight monthly decrease.

http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2008/12/31/chemical-giant-lyondellbasell-mulls-bankruptcy/
Zitat:LyondellBasell Industries, the world’s third-largest independent chemical company, told lenders on Monday it is considering filing for bankruptcy protection amid plunging sales and a cash crunch, people familiar with the matter said.
[...]
The chemicals industry has been battered over the past year, first by high prices for oil and natural gas, which are key components of plastics and other chemicals, then by the weak economy, which has driven down demand for products. Companies have been forced to slash budgets and shut down production. On Sunday, Dow Chemical Co. announced that Kuwait had pulled out of multibillion-dollar joint venture to produce commodity chemicals.

Das klingt ja fast, als wäre die Firma operativ am Ende, nicht?

Zitat:LyondellBasell, which is privately held, was created last year when Dutch chemical company Basell International Holdings BV paid $12.7 billion to buy Houston-based Lyondell Chemical Co. Basell paid $48 a share, a premium of about 20%. The resulting debt burden is proving too heavy amid a decline in sales. The company has annual sales of about $54 billion and 16,000 employees, according to its Web site.

Nope, ist sie nicht - die Schuldenlast ist "nur" zu hoch, nach einem besonders wagemutigen Merger.

Zitat:The company’s situation has deteriorated rapidly over the past three months as global industrial production has declined. Falling oil and gas prices have helped LyondellBasell by reducing its costs. But they’ve made it harder for it to borrow because its credit is based, in part, on the value of its inventory, which has also declined. As chemical and commodity prices fall, the company has been forced to pay back lenders to remain in compliance on loans, say several people familiar with the company.

LyondellBasell’s bonds have been trading at distressed levels in recent months. A $100 million unsecured bond issue trades at about 30 cents on the dollar, a sign that investors are concerned about default. Another $225 million issue trades at around 23 cents, according to the investment banking firm of Robert W. Baird & Co.

Last year’s merger, which closed in December, made LyondellBasell one of the world’s largest chemical companies, but it saddled it with a heavy debt load. Some analysts questioned the deal. “This really isn’t a good time to buy. You should be waiting a couple more years for assets to get cheap,” HSBC analyst Hassan Ahmed said when the deal was announced that July.


da hatte der Analyst definitiv recht.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a_lJWUAmsu8c&refer=latin_america
Chevron hat ein potentielles $27 Mrd. Problem:
Zitat:If the judge follows the recommendation of a court- appointed panel of experts, he could order Chevron Corp., which now owns Texaco, to pay as much as $27 billion in damages.

The case, which has languished for 15 years in U.S. and Ecuadorean courts, highlights the growing human and environmental toll of the global quest for oil.


Die Schuldfrage ist diffizil, weil zwar Texaco für 25 Jahre Abwasser einfach so in die Umwelt entlassen hat, aber auch Petroecuador dasselbe danach für 17 Jahre tat.
Zitat:
Both sides in the Amazon case agree that for a quarter of a century, until 1990, Texaco discharged 16 billion gallons of wastewater that’s a byproduct of drilling.

In 1993, 76 people who lived near the wells -- including members of the indigenous Cofan and Quichua Indian tribes and people who came to the Amazon from other parts of Ecuador for jobs -- sued White Plains, New York-based Texaco in New York federal court.

Chevron Blames PetroEcuador

They claimed the pollution had ruined their livelihood as farmers and fishermen and made them and their families sick.

Chevron says Texaco had completely cleaned up its mess by 1998. PetroEcuador, which took over Texaco’s operations in 1990 -- and not Texaco -- is to blame for today’s pollution, Chevron says.


Und natürlich ist auch noch die Ursache umstritten. Es liest sich wie das übliche "Wir sollen schuld sein? Ach nein, es gibt noch 100 andere Sachen, die krank machen, aber unsere zählt nicht dazu".

Ein kleines Detail am Rande:

Zitat:As Texaco was dumping waste in Ecuador, environmental regulators in U.S. states were outlawing open-air pools.

Texas banned unlined waste pits that leaked into groundwater as far back as 1969, says Steve Seni, former assistant director of environmental studies at the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the oil industry.


In Texas war es längst verboten, Abwässer so zu entsorgen daß sie ins Grundwasser entkommen konnten.

http://www.ftd.de/technik/it_telekommunikation/:Kein-Ende-der-Krise-Infineon-zweifelt-an-Qimonda-Rettung/455539.html
Zitat:Der Halbleiterkonzern Infineon bangt trotz des staatlichen Rettungspakets für Qimonda um die Zukunft seiner angeschlagenen Speicherchiptochter. Zwar wurden dieser unlängst Notdarlehen über 325 Mio. Euro und Bürgschaften für Kredite über 280 Mio. Euro zugesagt. Es sei allerdings "nicht sicher gestellt", dass die Maßnahmen "es Qimonda ermöglichen, ihre Verpflichtungen zu erfüllen", notierte Infineon am Dienstag in seinem aktuellen Geschäftsbericht.

Die Hilfen seien ferner kein Garant dafür, "dass Qimonda weitere operative oder strategische Initiativen erfolgreich umsetzen kann, die geeignet sind, ihre finanzielle Lage zu verbessern."Für den Fall, dass die Tochter mit den Kreditverhandlungen und der Sanierung scheitere, "könnte Qimonda Schwierigkeiten haben, ihren fälligen Verpflichtungen nachzukommen", teilte Infineon mit.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/79640a24-d508-11dd-b967-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:The steel business faces a fall in production in 2009 of at least 10 per cent, analysts say. This would be the biggest year-on-year fall for more than 60 years.

Analysten sagen, daß die Stahlproduktion in 2009 mindestens 10% fällt. Das wäre der stärkste Fall seit 60 Jahren.
Ok, Analysten sagen viel und selten liegen sie richtig, aber...

Zitat:According to the gloomiest projections, it could be at least four years before output returns to the levels of 2007.

Nach den pessimistischsten Vorhersagen dauert es mindestens 4 Jahre, bevor die Stahlproduktion wieder das Niveau von 2007 erreicht.
Zitat:According to World Steel Dynamics, a US steel consultancy, steel production could fall next year by 13.9 per cent compared with this year.

Michael Shillaker, an analyst at Credit Suisse, is slightly less gloomy, forecasting a year-on-year fall in 2009 of 10 per cent, with a pick-up only around the middle of the year.


-13.9 oder -10%. Naja, katastrophal ist beides.

Und wie ist der historische Kontext?

Zitat:The biggest fall in demand over one year for the steel industry since the end of the second world war was the 8.7 per cent drop in 1982, towards the end of a downturn in global industry. That was the third consecutive year in which steel industry output fell. There have been only three occasions since 1900 when output has declined for three years in a row. Other similarly bleak periods for the industry were 1930-32, 1944-46 and 1990-92.

In 1945, the final year of the second world war, steel output fell 27.3 per cent – the biggest year-on-year fall since the industry started collecting comprehensive data at the start of the 20th century.


-10% wäre also schon der Negativrekord für Jahre, in denen nicht Weltkriege enden. Wow.

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/12/29/the-collapse-of-financial-globalization/
Bard Setzer über den "near-total collapse of private capital flows.":
Zitat:Both private capital inflows to the US and private capital outflows from the US have fallen sharply. They have gone from a peak of around 15% of US GDP to around zero in a remarkably short period of time …

Graphik: Flüsse privater Gelder in/aus den USA
Zitat:Financial globalization — the growth in private cross-border flows, and associated rise in private inflows and private outflows — doesn’t seem to have been as central to the ability of the United States to sustain large current account deficits as some thought back in 2004 and 2005.

Private Gelder sind relativ unbeteiligt an der Finanzierung des US-Defizits.

Zitat:But even if “private” Treasury purchases since mid-2007 are counted there still would have been a stunning fall in private capital flows. Direct investment flows have continued. Other financial flows though have largely gone in reverse, with investors selling what they previously bought. In the third quarter foreign investors sold about $90b of US securities (excluding Treasuries) and Americans sold about $85 billion of foreign securities. And the reversal in bank flows on both sides (as past loans have been called) has been absolutely brutal.

end-of-financial-globalization-41.png
Zitat:This sharp fall has bearing on the bigger debate over the role global capital, global savings and foreign central banks played in helping to to create the conditions that allowed US households to sustain a large deficit for so long — and whether American and other policy makers should have paid more attention to the risks that came with the surge in foreign demand for US financial assets earlier this decade.

Zitat:Think of the process this way. Suppose a US bank lends a billion dollars to a bank in London that lends that money to a hedge fund domiciled the Caribbean that buys a billion dollars of US securities. That chain results in an outflow and inflow, but the outflow just financed the inflow — it doesn’t help to finance the current account deficit. By contrast, China’s purchases of Treasuries and Agencies reflect in large part China’s current account surplus — not Chinese banks borrowing from US banks. They certainly help to finance the US current account deficit.

I think we now more or less know that the strong increase in gross capital inflows and outflows after 2004 (gross inflows and outflows basically doubled from late 2004 to mid 2007) was tied to the expansion of the shadow banking system.


China hat also im wesentlichen direkt US-Staatsanleihen aus dem Handelsüberschuß gekauft und damit das US-Defizit finanziert.
Und die privaten Gelder, die geflossen sind, sind größtenteils in das Schattenbankensystem geflossen.

Zitat von Fazit:At this point, I don’t really think that there can be much doubt that the enormous increase in central bank reserves over the last five years was central to the process that allowed the US to run large current account deficits during a period when private demand — that is private inflows net of private outflows — for US financial assets wasn’t there. At least not on the scale needed to finance the United States big deficits.

Es gab schon 5 Jahre lang keinen großen Bedarf privater Investoren an US-Staatsanleihen.

=> Sobald China, Japan, ... keinen großen Außenhandelsüberschuß mehr haben - und der Zeitpunkt ist sehr nahe - wird es keine ausländischen Käufer für US-Staatsanleihen mehr geben.
Und das heißt dann nicht nur, daß die USA die FED-Bilanz nicht mehr "sterilisieren" kann, sondern auch, daß die USA massive Probleme haben werden, im Ausland zu kaufen. Das kann eine ganz, ganz üble Kettenreaktion werden.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b886520-d6a2-11dd-9bf7-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:Investors pulled a net $32bn from hedge funds last month, making 2008 the first year in their recorded history that the funds have had significant outflows and ending the industry’s 18 years of asset growth.

Money has been taken out of funds following every strategy, even those – such as macro funds – which were showing returns, according to data from fund trackers Hedge Fund Research.
[...]
Conrad Gann, chief operating officer of TrimTabs, said: “We estimate outflows in November were $32bn, and there is an additional pipeline of redemptions that have not been filled, there could be $80bn [of redemptions] in December.

“There are $57bn of redemptions that we know are in, that are not reflected yet,” he said.
[...]
The funds had outflows of $43bn for the 10 months to the end of October, according to HFR. With TrimTabs’ estimate of further significant redemptions for November and December, the funds will show outflows of more than $100bn for the full year. In 1994, the only previous time they had outflows, the figure was $1m.


2008-01 bis 2008-10 flossen 43 Mrd. aus den Fonds ab, 2008-11 32 Mrd., und im Dezember könnten bis zu 80 Mrd. abfließen.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aa5835d8-d508-11dd-b967-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:Record volumes of government bonds from the industrialised nations – intended to reverse what could be the worst recession since the Great Depression – threaten to curb access to credit markets by emerging economies
.
Analysts warn that emerging market borrowers could be crowded out of the credit markets by $3,000bn of government bonds expected to be issued by the big developed economies in 2009 – three times more than in 2008. The US alone is expected to issue about $2,000bn next year.

Die entwickelten Länder werden im nächsten Jahr Anleihen für $2000 Mrd mehr machen als in diesem Jahr...
Zitat:Emerging market governments and corporates need to repay $6,865bn of debt in 2009, according to ING Wholesale Banking. This includes bonds, loans, interest payments and trade finance.

David Spegel, global head of emerging markets strategy at ING, said: “Refinancing risk is going to be one of the biggest problems for emerging market issuers in 2009.


... und die emerging markets könnten diejenigen sein, die deshalb ihre Anleihen nicht oder nur zu höheren Strafaufschlägen loswerden.

Econompicdata hat diese wunderschöne Graphik erzeugt:
Graphik: Auslandschulden der BRIC-Länder
Das ist die Summe der Auslandsschulden, die der jeweilige Staat und Unternehmen aus Land in 2009 bezahlen oder refinanzieren müssen.


http://www.ajc.com/news/content/business/stories//2008/12/21/creditcards_1221.html?cxntlid=homepage_tab_newstab&imw=Y
Zitat:
Johnson’s mood soured when he got to a letter from American Express, saying it had slashed the credit limit on his account.
[...]
“Other customers who have used their card at establishments where you recently shopped have a poor repayment history with American Express,” the letter said. Johnson complained to American Express by phone and letter.
[...]
Johnson checked his charges to try to figure out what might have raised a red flag in the American Express data-mining model. He didn’t see anything but typical transactions, including purchases at Amazon, Ruby Tuesday, Wal-Mart, Starbucks and Federal Express.

Ich verstehe ja, daß Kreditkartenunternehmen massive Angst vor faulen Krediten haben - aber daß sie erstklassigen Kunden den Kredit kürzen weil weniger erstklassige Kunden bei denselben Läden eingekauft haben, geht wohl doch einen Schritt zu weit, jedenfalls wenn man Selbstmord als Ziel des Unternehmens ausschließt.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081227/ap_on_re_as/as_taliban_shadow_government_4
Zitat:Two months ago, Mohammad Anwar recalls, the Taliban paraded accused thieves through his village, tarred their faces with oil and threw them in jail.

The public punishment was a clear sign to villagers that the Taliban are now in charge. And the province they took over lies just 30 miles from the Afghan capital of Kabul, right on the main highway.
[...]
In a growing number of regions, insurgents have put in place:

• Militant commanders who serve as self-described governors and police or military chiefs of provinces.

• A 10 percent "tax" — a forced payment at gunpoint, Western officials say — on rich families, or donations by poorer families of food and shelter for fighters.

• A military draft that forces fighting-age males to join the Taliban for months-long rotations.

A parallel judicial system run by religious scholars who impose such punishments as tarring, public humiliation and the chopping off hands.

• The closing of Afghan schools or the forcing of schools to replace science with more religious study.

• Manned Taliban or militant checkpoints to demand highway taxes and search vehicles for government employees or foreigners.


Ich bin wirklich beeindruckt von den großen Erfolgen der Demokratisierung im mittleren Osten.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a4p3KXdCTPuA&refer=australia
Zitat: Macquarie Office Trust, Australia’s biggest office property trust by assets, plunged in Sydney trading as it negotiates to refinance a $74.5 million loan.

Macquarie Office shares fell 12 percent to 29 Australian cents at the close of trading today on the Australian stock exchange, extending their loss this year to almost 80 percent, after the company said banks agreed to extend the existing facility to March 1, 2009.


Australiens größter Immobilienfonds hat Zahlungsschwierigkeiten. Es geht um 74 Millionen.

Und das ist nicht der einzige Fonds der Gesellschaft, der in Schwierigkeiten steckt...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=MOF%3AAU&sid=a_AYjnP3xW8Y

Zitat von Flashback:Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Macquarie Group Ltd. funds are selling almost A$900 million ($587 million) of Australian office properties, the Australian Financial Review reported.

Macquarie Direct Property, which in August was forced to freeze cash redemptions, has put half its A$1 billion assets up for sale to increase cash holdings, the newspaper said, citing the fund's Chief Executive Officer Richard Cutler.

Another Macquarie fund plans to sell its half-stake in the No.1 Martin Place building in Sydney, while Macquarie Office Trust is selling buildings in Adelaide and North Sydney.

Macquarie ist eine Gruppe von Immobilienläden, die sich auf Immobilien in Kalifornien und Australien spezialisiert hat. Ja, Kalifornien, da wo die Immobilienpreise immer nur steigen...

Auch die letzte Quartalsbilanz von Macquarie Office Trust liest sich interessant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=MOF%3AAU&sid=ab8h5ZYgLxhk


September 30, 2008 December 31, 2007
Total assets $ 5,323,039 $ 5,749,778, davon
Deferred rents 61,140 49,292
Due from affiliates 1,707 1,740
Deferred leasing costs and value 159,913 192,269
of in-place leases, net
Deferred loan costs, net 33,471 38,725
Total liabilities 5,211,662 5,391,794

Ich lese das als "bereits tief unter Wasser" - wenn auch nur 40% des "deferred" permanent verzögert ist (deferred rents sind Mieten, bei denen der Vermieter zugestimmt hat, daß sie erst später gezahlt werden).

Auch Einnahmen und Ausgaben sind erhellend:

For the Three Months Ended For the Nine Months Ended
September 30, September 30, September 30, September 30,
2008 2007 2008 2007
Revenue:
Rental $ 84,432 $ 92,592 $ 256,710 $ 233,725
Tenant 28,133 27,534 82,431 75,241
reimbursements
Hotel 6,301 6,705 20,168 19,954
operations
Parking 13,034 12,369 40,154 34,190
Management,
leasing and 1,518 1,716 5,332 6,586
development
services
Interest and 2,159 3,869 8,901 8,829
other
Total revenue 135,577 144,785 413,696 378,525

Expenses:
Rental
property 33,211 33,566 97,661 85,509
operating and
maintenance
Hotel
operating and 4,102 4,208 13,084 12,598
maintenance
Real estate 12,886 13,435 39,993 33,114
taxes
Parking 4,519 3,173 12,675 9,802
General and 9,052 8,973 52,797 27,888
administrative
Other expense 1,574 1,949 4,507 3,127
Depreciation
and 46,677 55,746 143,446 135,593
amortization
Interest 65,455 66,119 195,605 155,293
Loss from
early 1,463 12,440 1,463 20,776
extinguishment
of debt
Total expenses 178,939 199,609 561,231 483,700


Das ist ja durch die Bank tiefrot...

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=94a27bcc-8fd7-4a49-bac6-c4917db792c5
Zitat:Argentina's November industrial production growth was flat compared with a year earlier, its worst performance since October 2002, due largely to sinking auto production, the government said on Monday.

Factory output was down 0.9 percent in November from a month earlier, according to the government's seasonally adjusted data.

Production in the automotive sector slid 24.4 percent from November 2007 and 23.1 percent from October, as carmakers reacted swiftly to a sharp drop in demand in both the local market and the country's main export market, Brazil.

Steel and aluminum production fell 11.1 percent year-on-year in November and 13.8 percent from October. Oil refining dropped 12.4 percent from November 2007 and 12.9 percent from October.


Fabrikproduktion -0.9%, Automobilsektor -23.1%, Stahl und Aluminium -13.8%, Öl -12.9%, alles von Oktober auf November.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c513c9c6-d091-11dd-ae00-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:The government estimates more than 10m migrant workers have lost their jobs so far, while 6.5m university students will enter the workforce next year.

Danke, daß endlich meine Frage nach belastbaren Zahlen zur Arbeitslosigkeit unter Wanderarbeitern (China: Anstelle von Fakten bekommt man Gelaber) beantwortet wird. Ich hätte allerdings eine weniger verheerende Zahl schöner gefunden.

Zitat:Employment is being impacted by factory closures and many migrant workers are returning to their home towns
But even if China achieves 8 per cent growth, it will only be able to create a maximum of 9m jobs next year, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao said at the weekend.

16.5<->9 Millionen.
Aber es wird noch schlimmer:
Zitat:GDP growth fell from 11.9 per cent for the whole of last year to 9 per cent in the third quarter and more pessimistic forecasters, such as Royal Bank of Scotland, put growth at 5 per cent for the whole of next year.

Diese 10 Millionen arbeitslosen Wanderarbeiter wurden arbeitslos während die Ökonomie noch 9% wuchs. Wieviele Wanderarbeiter werden wohl bei 4, 0 oder -4% entlassen? Und will ich die Antwort auf diese Frage wirklich wissen?

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1666253,00.html
Zitat:More than 90% of China's 160 million acres (400 million hectares) of grasslands are classified as "degraded," slowly losing the diverse collection of native plants that normally flourish there and fueling the massive dust storms that blow across China every spring.
90% von Chinas Grasland ist geschädigt.

Zitat:Nomadic herders have raised camels, goats, cows, and sheep on these grasslands for hundreds of years, but in the middle of the 20th century, China's population boom and demand for more meat sent livestock numbers soaring. By 1990, some regions were literally grazed bare, herders whose animals were dying off descended into poverty, and grasslands that used to harbor hundreds of plant species had turned to wasteland.
... wegen Überweidung (u.a.).
Zitat:Nearly 20 years on, the crisis is far from over. Eight hundred thousand acres (2 million hectares) of grassland continue to turn into desert every year, and climate change, bringing yet more drought to dry land, hasn't helped. Still, if there hasn't been sweeping progress, there has been —for better and for worse — a lot of action.

2 Mio. Hektar neuer Wüste im Jahr sind langfristig doch etwas viel.
Zitat:Beijing has sunk millions of dollars into the effort to stop the advance of the desert and has set up a system of laws to manage the land from afar; herders are being relocated and it's now forbidden to graze on badly hit areas. The slow process of regrowth has started in limited areas, and the sand storms hitting Beijing have been less severe in the last few years. Though some scientists chalk uo the latter to fluctuations in weather, others say it's a sign that the grasslands are starting to return to health. "Maybe some places are getting better, but some places are getting worse," says Jiang Gaoming, a plant ecologist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Und allzu viel Fortschritt (zum Positiven) hat es trotz einiger Maßnahmen noch nicht gegeben.
Zitat:Not all efforts have been executed with such sensitivity. As herders lose animals and income, some communities have been scheduled for "ecological emigration," moved by the government from their native areas to less distressed land and, in the bargain, put in training programs to learn new trades. In Xinjiang, another remote province due west of Inner Mongolia, some 600,000 of the region's one million herders are scheduled to be switched to farming or blue-collar jobs by 2010.

Und mit dem üblichen gefühlvollem Vorgehen von kommunistischen Großdiktaturen wird die Gelegenheit ergriffen, Menschen umzusiedeln und beruflich umzupflanzen - und das auch bei sowieso eher weniger geschätzten Minderheiten (Mongolen).
Und die kommen auch noch auf den Arbeitsmarkt, auch wenn sie eigentlich gar nicht wollen.

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/?id=386603
Zitat:THE average unit price of Shanghai's new residential properties, excluding those built for relocated residents, fell more than 10 percent in the second half of 2008 as compared to the previous six months, a latest industry report has found.
Und wenn der Preisverfall alleine nicht reicht, um schlechte Laune zu machen:
Zitat:``The local housing market has suffered extremely low transaction volumes during the second half of 2008, plagued by growing concerns over the economic slowdown both at home and abroad,'' said Xue Jianxiong, an analyst with E-House, the largest integrated real estate service provider in the country.

About 33,000 units of new homes have been sold during the second half, a decline of 25 percent from 44,000 units in the first six months, E-House said.

Die Volumina sind auch massiv gefallen: Insgesamt heißt das, daß die Umsätze um 33% eingebrochen sind.

Chinas aufstrebender Mittelstand...


Hier ist noch eine Geschichte, die der Beachtung wert ist:

South China Mall


Bild: South China Mall, von Philip Gostelow für The National.

Zitat von Wikipedia sagt:South China Mall in Dongguan, China was the largest mall in the world. It has leasable space for over 1,500 stores in approximately 6.5 million square feet (600,000 square metres) of total floor area.

This mall has seven zones modeled on international cities, nations and regions, including Amsterdam, Paris, Rome, Venice, Egypt, the Caribbean, and California.

Although the mall opened in 2005, it suffers from a lack of retailers. Much of the retail space remains empty, with 99.2 percent of the stores vacant. Many analysts say that the main reason the mall is so far largely unoccupied is that it is located in the suburbs of Dongguan, which means that it is only practical to travel there using a car. The mall was scheduled to close in July 2008.


99.2% Leerstand ist beeindruckend.
Das Einkaufszentrum war wohl für Chinas aufblühenden Mittelstand gedacht - und was bedeutet es wohl, daß es leer steht? Vielleicht daß es diesen Mittelstand nicht in so großer Zahl gibt?
Und was bedeutet das wohl für Chinas Chance auf Wachstum durch Belebung der Binnennachfrage?

http://www.thenational.ae/article/20080612/REVIEW/206990272/1042

Zitat:There was nothing else to do, because the South China Mall, which opened with great fanfare in 2005, is not just the world’s largest. With fewer than a dozen stores scattered through a space designed to house 1,500, it is also the world’s emptiest – a dusty, decrepit complex of buildings marked by peeling paint, dead light bulbs, and dismembered mannequins.
[...]
The situation is even more complicated in China, where per capita income is about a fifteenth of the UAE’s. Much is expected of China in the next decade. Its economy continues to experience double-digit growth, and its factories now assemble most of the toys, shoes and microchips in the world. The country expects to quadruple its year 2000 per-capita income by 2020. China is rising, and before long – the conventional thinking goes – there will be a gigantic Chinese consumer class, four or five hundred millions of prosperous, educated people looking to stroll through malls and buy lots of stuff they don’t need. (At present, fewer than 10 per cent of China’s population of 1.3 billion have enough discretionary income to count as “middle-class”.)

About 500 new malls have been built in China over the last five years, estimates Kevin Jiang, a researcher at the Mall China Information Center. All of them are waiting for the arrival of this coming mega-middle class, as are the rest of China’s countless “visionary” development projects. These include a from-scratch “eco-city” for 500,000 residents north of Shanghai, a compound of a hundred luxury villas in the Ordos desert of Inner Mongolia and a thousand-acre theme-park replica of the old imperial Summer Palace, which was destroyed by British and French troops in the nineteenth century.



South China Mall 2


Bild: South China Mall, von Philip Gostelow für The National.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601092&sid=a.1gJ707Hc2A&refer=italy
Zitat:Italian retail sales contracted for a 22nd month in December as the worst recession since 1992 eroded consumer confidence and spending.
Italiens Einzelhandelsverkäufe brauchen den 22. Monat ein...

Zitat:A seasonally adjusted index of sales rose to 31.9 from 28.5 in November, remaining below the limit of 50 that indicates a contraction. The gauge, based on a survey of 440 executives prepared by Markit Economics for Bloomberg LP, also showed annual sales fell at the fastest pace in the near five-year history of the data.

... wenn auch nicht mehr ganz so drastisch wie im November.
Zitat:
Declining sales prompted retailers to cut staff for a 12th month, the report said. The rate at which staff numbers were reduced was the fastest since Markit first compiled the data in January 2004.

und 12 Monate hintereinander haben Einzelhändler netto entlassen.

Micht dünkt, die italienischen Probleme sitzen tief - außer dem hohen Problem, daß sich als Ministerpräsident wählen läßt um Recht beugen zu können.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWdmP.o6Py1s
Zitat:Japan's economy will probably shrink at an annual 12.1 percent pace this quarter, the sharpest drop since 1974, as exports collapse, Barclays Capital said.

Gross domestic product in the three months ending tomorrow will fall at almost three times the 4.1 percent rate previously predicted, said Kyohei Morita, chief Japan economist at Barclays in Tokyo, after reports last week showed industrial production and exports posted the biggest declines on record in November.


12.1% Minus wäre fürchterlich - und das ist die Vorhersage für das vierte Quartal 2008.

Und damit wäre die Sache noch nicht vorbei, denn

Zitat:“Given the speed and the length of the contraction, this recession could be the most severe in the postwar era,” Morita said. “We expect negative growth will continue for a fifth straight quarter to the April-June period of 2009.”

Rezession bis mindestens ins 2. Quartal 2009.

Zitat:Plunging sales of cars and electronics are forcing companies from Toyota Motor Corp. to Panasonic Corp. to idle plants and fire workers. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled a record 42 percent this year, eclipsing a 39 percent slide in 1990 that helped trigger a decade of economic stagnation and deflation.

Der Nikkei fiel dieses Jahr um 42%, mehr als die 39%, die 1990 ein Jahrzehnt von Stagnation und Deflation mit ausgelöst haben.

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav122208.shtml
Zitat:As if electricity blackouts weren’t bad enough, now residents in rural Kyrgyzstan are having difficulties accessing water. Without electricity, Kyrgyzstan’s new water pumping system is inoperable; and some pumps have been damaged by the irregular supply of power.

"The energy crisis and the drinking water supply have a direct connection. If there is no electricity, in most cases it means there is no water," Talant Ormushev, head of production at the Department of Rural Water Supply, told EurasiaNet.

According to Ormushev, the majority of Kyrgyzstan’s villages receive water supplied by water towers that, in turn, depend on electricity to fill their tanks. But electricity supplies are sporadic, with some villages reportedly receiving only five hours of power per day.


Einige Dörfer haben 5 Stunden Strom am Tag - zu wenig für die Wasserpumpen, und einige Wasserpumpen sind durch die unregelmäßige Stromversorgung bereits beschädigt.
Zitat:"The water pumps are not supposed to work in this emergency situation. Technologically they must work constantly. Every time you switch off and then switch on the electricity, they come under pressure. It results in early deterioration and breakage," said Turdukul Ishenbaev, the Department of Rural Water Supply’s representative in the Alamedin region.

Ishenbaev explained the increasing burden the burnt-out pumps are having on consumers. Villages collectively scrape together the repair fees. "To change a broken pump machine ... costs around 60 thousand som ($1,500). Every household must collect 100-200 som (up to $5). It’s a big financial burden for villagers."


Bruttosozialprodukt pro Kopf, landesweit: $1600.

Zitat:"Rotating blackouts influence drinking water quality in many ways. First, bactericidal lamps and chlorine drips to disinfect water work electrically," she explained. "Second, to change or repair water pumps takes several days. After 24 hours, pathogens grow in the standing water inside the pipes, filters don’t work properly and sand and dirt mixes with water. Silt-up is occurring."

Und natürlich hat das auch Auswirkungen auf die Wasserqualität...
Zitat:Ironically, areas where the Taza Suu project has been completed are now more vulnerable to disruptions, having sold or dismantled their old means for distributing water. "Before the new [Taza Suu] pipe, we took water from the river and used donkeys to transport jugs. Then we sold [the donkeys and the jugs]. Now there is no water again, and we don’t even have [tanks] to store the water," said a villager in Issuk-Kul oblast.

Vor dem Bau der Wasserpipeline wurde das Wasser in Krügen mit Eseln geholt. Jetzt sind die Esel und die Krüge verkauft...
Zitat:Editor's Note: Arlsan Mamatov is the pseudonym for a Kyrgyz journalist.

Es lebe die Pressefreiheit.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aIqmVJ9L4JCI&refer=asia
Zitat:South Korea's National Pension Service, the nation's biggest investor with 225 trillion won ($178 billion) in assets, will add bonds and cut back on equity investment from an earlier target after the stocks slumped.

Domestic stocks will account for 17 percent of its assets by the end of 2009, down from its initial plan of 20.3 percent, the fund said today in an e-mailed statement. Bonds will make up 69.3 percent of assets next year, from 60.4 percent earlier, according to the statement. The fund expects assets to rise to 256 trillion won by the end of next year, it said.


Südkoreas Pensionsfonds fährt seinen Aktienanteil zurück (von 20.3 auf 17%). Das ist sehr wahrscheinlich die richtige Richtung. Dafür kommen dann mehr Staatsanleihen.
Und nächstes Jahr werden die Anlagen des Fonds um 13% wachsen (das scheint mir leicht optimistisch zu sein - netto zahlen auch die Koreaner nicht 24 Mrd Dollar in einem Jahr in den Fond ein...).

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=NPSVCZ%3AKS&sid=a_yvgjSfKg5E

Zitat von Flashback:Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's National Pension Service, the country's largest investor, is ``steadily'' buying stocks as the deepening credit crisis drags equity markets lower.

The NPS, which had 228 trillion won ($189 billion) of assets at the end of August, was among pension funds that were net buyers of 3.2 trillion won in Kospi Index shares this month, according to stock exchange data. That helped to buffer overseas investors' net sales of 2.7 trillion won.


Im September haben die noch koreanische Aktien gekauft, und damit den Aktienmarkt Koreas deutlich gestützt, nachdem ausländische Gelder abgezogen wurden...
Ist das nun ein Pensionsfonds oder ein Aktienmarktmanipulationsvehikel?

Naja, von "228 trillion won ($189 billion) of assets at the end of August" auf "225 trillion won ($178 billion)" jetzt: -11 Mrd Dollar.
Oh, und vorher waren die Erfolge auch eher beschränkt:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=NPSVCZ%3AKS&sid=al2B3YfFZEBY

Zitat: Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's National Pension Service, the country's largest investor, posted negative returns for the first eight months of the year after global stock markets were roiled by credit turmoil.

The pension fund's return averaged a negative 1 percent between January and August, the Ministry for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs said in a statement today. It forecast annual returns to fall, the first drop since 2005. The fund had 228 trillion won ($197 billion) of assets at the end of August.


Einmal hatten sie am Ende des August $197 Mrd, einmal am selben Augustende $189 Mrd, jetzt haben sie $178 Mrd und von Januar bis August im Mittel -1% (im Mittel über was? Naja, nehmen wird mal an, sie meinen "-2 Mrd in dem Zeitraum") => von rund 200 Mrd auf 178 Mrd.
Wenn man ihnen glauben kann, natürlich.

http://www.abp.nl/abp/abp/english/about_abp/press_service/press_releases/Q3_2008.asp
Zitat:The Stichting Pensioenfonds ABP announces that the return on investments over the first nine months of 2008 came to -9.8%. As a result, the assets held by ABP are now valued at €195 billion. The value of the nominal pension liabilities rose to €166 billion. The coverage ratio after the first nine months of 2008 came to 118%, partly due to the development in the interest rate.

ABP has notified De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) that the coverage ratio of the pension fund has fallen below the required coverage ratio of about 125%. At the end of the third quarter the coverage ratio was 118%. With this percentage the pension fund still has financial buffers of several tens of billions of euros, but less than pension fund regulator De Nederlandsche Bank requires. There is therefore a shortage of reserves.

ABP is now legally required to draw up a recovery plan in which the fund shows that the asset position will satisfy the statutory requirements within a period of 15 years maximum. ABP will present DNB with a recovery plan by the end of this year.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb228bfa-d385-11dd-989e-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:Russia is bracing for further unrest as the rouble on Friday slid to a new low against the euro after a succession of moves to devalue its currency.
A cut on Friday extended six weeks of devaluations by Russia’s central bank designed to offset the impact of the global economic crisis and falling oil prices as the country’s main export commodity approached its lowest level since 2004.

Der Rubel verfällt...
Zitat:Analysts at Barclays Capital said the best case scenario would see Russian policymakers, facing the mounting evidence of a recession, allowing a one-off depreciation of 10 per cent or more.

... und wird voraussichtlich weiter verfallen.

Und was könnte die Folge sein? Zivilisierte Briefe an den Kreml, vielleicht?
Nein, so wohl nicht:

Zitat:Mikhail Sukhodolsky, a deputy interior minister, warned on Christmas Eve that there could be further protests. “The situation may be exacerbated by a growth in frustration of workers over the non-payment of wages or those threatened with dismissal,” he said.

His remarks coincided with criticism of the Kremlin’s rough handling of the protests in Vladivostok. Moscow-based Omon riot police detained about 61 people in the protests against car import duties designed to prop up domestic car producers, but making foreign vehicles prohibitively expensive for ordinary Russians.


Nein, die Leute protestieren, obwohl sie zu ihrem eigenen Besten gezwungen werden, und müssen dann eingesperrt werden.

Und wie umschreibt man das schön?

Zitat:Mikhail Kasyanov, the former prime minister who now leads the liberal People’s Democratic Union opposition movement, said that an unspoken social contract between the government and the people, swapping political freedoms for prosperity and consumer goods, had broken down.

“It was a deal,” he told the FT in an interview this week. “But it has fallen apart and that is why people are appearing on the streets. The process has started . . . Things could spin out of control when people wake up and realise their neighbours have lost their jobs and they are at risk of losing theirs.” He added that “the authorities had reacted “cynically and in a very nervous manner for nothing,” against a peaceful demonstration.


Zynische und sehr nervöse Reaktionen gegen friedliche Demonstrationen in Rußland? In China ist ein Sack Reis umgefallen.

Aber obwohl ich eigentlich der Meinung bin, daß alles gut ist, was Putin die Chance auf eine frühzeitige Rente gibt: Offene Proteste auf der Straße mit Bildern von Straßenschlachten im Fernsehen und Internet sind sicherlich nichts, was den Rubelverfall stoppen könnte. Und unter Putin wird Rußland jedenfalls keine Atomwaffen an Terroristen verkaufen...


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/business/worldbusiness/30gazprom.html?partner=rss&emc=rss
Zitat:A year ago, Gazprom, the Russian natural gas monopoly, aspired to be the largest corporation in the world. Buoyed by high oil prices and political backing from the Kremlin, it had already achieved third place judging by market capitalization, behind Exxon Mobil and General Electric.

Today, Gazprom is deep in debt and negotiating a government bailout. Its market cap, the total value of all the company’s shares, has fallen 76 percent since the beginning of the year. Instead of becoming the world’s largest company, it has tumbled to 35th place. And while bailouts are increasingly common, none of Gazprom’s big private sector competitors in the West is looking for one.


Wobei ich gerade anderenorts etwas von Rekordgewinnen von Gazprom in 2008 gelesen haben, in der Größenordnung von $10 Mrd - und von beachtlich hohen Anleihen, die 2009 und 2010 fällig werden, die aber zusammen um die $16 Mrd wiegen.

Es ist durchaus denkbar, daß die wirklich überschuldet sind...

Zitat:As oil prices rose, so did their stocks. But rather than investing sufficiently in drilling and exploration, Russia’s president at the time, Vladimir V. Putin, used them to pursue his agenda of regaining public control over the oil fields, and much of private industry beyond.

As a result, by the time the downturn came, they entered the credit crisis deeply in debt and with a backlog of capital investment needs.


Naja, aber warum einen Bailout machen und nicht die Unternehmen pleite gehen lassen und dann verstaatlichen?

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:Folgen-der-Finanzkrise-Kuwait-stoppt-Schl%FCsselprojekt-mit-Dow-Chemical/454885.html
Zitat:Vor gut einem Jahr wurde das Projekt beschlossen - nun kommt das Aus: Kuwait bläst wegen der Finanzkrise das Joint-Venture mit dem US-Chemieriesen Dow Chemical im Wert von 17 Mrd. Dollar ab.

Das Kabinett habe das Projekt K-Dow Petrochemicals abgesagt, gegen das sich Widerstand im Parlament regte, meldete die amtliche kuwaitische Nachrichtenagentur Kuna am Sonntag. Kuwait sehe angesichts der Finanzkrise keine Vorzüge mehr in dem Projekt, hieß es in Medienberichten.

Die staatliche Petrochemical Industries (PIC) hatte das Joint Venture erst Anfang des Monats mit Dow Chemical besiegelt. Im Zuge der Vereinbarung sollte Dow Chemical von Kuwait für seinen Anteil etwa 7,5 Mrd. $ erhalten. Mit dem Geld wollte Dow einen Großteil der 18,8 Mrd. $ teuren Übernahme des US-Spezialchemiekonzerns Rohm & Haas bezahlen.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/28/business/dow.php

Zitat:The Kuwaiti cabinet said that as a result of the global economic upheaval and falling oil prices, there could be "unpredictable consequences to any global firm," and that the Dow deal would bring an unacceptably high risk. It called on the government's Supreme Petroleum Council to "take the necessary legal steps toward implementation of the cancellation without harming the interests of the state."

Also ist entweder Dow Chemical in einer sehr schwierigen Position - oder Kuweit.
Zitat:The K-Dow deal, which was to have an enterprise value of $17.4 billion, was announced late last year, but it was only four weeks ago that the two companies signed an agreement to finalize the alliance, under which Dow was to sell 50 percent of its plastics business assets to Petrochemical Industries for $9.5 billion and combine some other units. It would have been Kuwait's largest overseas deal.

Und für mein Gefühl ist Kuweit in Problemen...
http://www.livemint.com/2008/12/23234136/Dow-Chemical-to-exit-petrochem.html
Zitat:Mumbai: Dow Chemical Co., the world’s second largest chemical manufacturer, is going through a restructuring, closing 20 plants, suspending work at another 180 factories, and laying off 5,000 of its 46,500 employees across 175 countries.

In India, too, Dow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd is writing a new script. Ramesh Ramachandran, who took over as president and chief executive of the company’s India operations last year, wants to exit the petrochemical business in the country to focus on speciality chemicals. The company currently buys petrochemical products from its parent for trading in India.


... aber Dow Chemical halt auch.

http://www.ftd.de/politik/international/:Einheitliches-Geld-Golfstaaten-schaffen-gemeinsame-W%E4hrung/455618.html
Zitat:Die Golfstaaten haben sich nach Angaben des Kooperationsrates GCC auf die Einführung einer gemeinsamen Währung geeinigt. Saudi-Arabien, die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate, Kuwait, Katar, Oman und Bahrain hätten der Währungsunion zugestimmt, sagte der stellvertretende GCC-Geschäftsführer Nasser al-Kaud am Dienstag. Über Details wie den Sitz der Zentralbank solle in den nächsten fünf Monaten entschieden werden.

Über die für 2010 anvisierte Währungsunion debattiert die GCC, eine vergleichsweise lose politische und wirtschaftliche Vereinigung, bereits seit Jahren. Das Treffen des Kooperationsrats am Montag und Dienstag war durch einen Streit zwischen den beiden größten Mitgliedstaaten Saudi-Arabien und den Vereinigten Arabischen Emiraten über eine Abkehr von der Dollar-Bindung und die Einführung eines Währungskorbes belastet worden.


Also, _das_ ist bestimmt der Beginn einer Währungsgemeinschaft voller Harmonie und gemeinsamen Interessen. Das wird bestimmt noch viel besser funktionieren als die Opec.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601104&sid=aXm6dvjY3.Ag&refer=mideast
Zitat von Die gute Nachricht zu Anfang:U.A.E. banks’ “exposure to mortgages is not significant and not comparable to the U.S.,” he added.

Economic growth in the U.A.E., the second-biggest Arab economy, will slow to 2.7 percent in 2009 and 3.5 percent in 2010, led by a slump in its real-estate and banking industries, Standard Chartered Plc said Dec. 15. The U.A.E. economy probably grew 7 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund estimates.


Ok, ok, 2.7% ist immer noch sehr viel. Kein Grund zur Sorge...

Zitat:Mortgage lending makes up an average 9 percent of the overall loan book at the U.A.E.’s top 11 banks that Moody’s rates, Tofarides said. The overall exposure to the real-estate industry, including mortgages, loans to property developers and contractors, averages 16 percent. U.A.E. banks’ exposure to the real estate sector can’t exceed 20 percent of their deposits, according to current regulations, although that doesn’t apply to Islamic banks.

Hypotheken machen als nur 10% des Kreditgeschäfts aus. Und das ist ungefährlich.
Auch wenn 50% der Hypotheken ausfallen und die Banken um den Faktor 20 gehebelt sind?

Dubai:

Zitat:Dubai house prices will start to fall in the fourth quarter, ending a housing boom that pushed prices up 43 percent in the first three months of the year, Colliers International said Dec. 3. The price of villas in Dubai tumbled 19 percent in October from September, HSBC Holdings Plc said Nov. 12.

Der Preis von Villen in Dubai sank von September auf Oktober um 19%. Davon müssen wohl ziemlich viele auf dem Markt sein.

Zitat:Construction and real estate account for almost 50 percent of Dubai’s GDP, according to S&P, which said there may be a “sharp correction in this market.”

Dubei: fast 50% des Bruttosozialproduktes mit Immobilien und Bau erwirtschaftet.
Wenn der Bereich auch nur, sagen wir mal, 25% fällt, dann sehen die einem Wachstum des BSP von -10% entgegen.
Wenn der Bereich um 50% fällt, und der Ölpreis im nächsten Jahr unter 50$ bleibt, dann sehen die einem BSP-Wachstum von -30% entgegen.

Aber in den "fast 50%" steckt noch eine andere Nachricht: All das, was die in Dubai aufbauen wollten - Medienindustrie und so - erwirtschaftet noch nichts Nennenswertes. Damit wird auch fraglich, ob Dubai die Leute, die in ihren Wolkenkratzern arbeiten sollen, überhaupt wird ins Land locken können.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=a04XPja.g.Ns&refer=europe
Zitat:Spanish home prices fell in the third quarter as the end of a decade-long construction boom led to the economy to contract.

The price of used and new homes fell 1.7 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months when prices declined 0.3 percent, the Madrid-based National Statistics Institute said today. Compared with a year earlier, home prices fell 3 percent in the third quarter.


Spaniens Hauspreise sind in einem Jahr um 3% gefallen. Da hatte ich mit deutlich Schlimmerem gerechnet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aDeya8Ha_0Vk&refer=uk
Zitat von Neues aus dem zukünftigen Armenhaus:The U.K. pound weakened to a record 98 pence per euro after an industry report said house prices will probably extend declines next year, boosting the case for deeper interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England.

Das ist ein sehr signifikanter Sturz:
Graphik: Pfund/Euro über 5 Jahre
Das ist ganz, ganz schlecht - seit mittlerweile etwas über 2 Jahren muß Großbritannien netto Öl importieren und in Dollar zahlen... ich habe keinerlei Ahnung, wie die da heraus kommen wollen.
Zitat:
Britain’s currency also dropped versus 14 of its 16 most- traded counterparts, falling for a second day against the Swiss franc and tumbling to a 14-year low against Japan’s yen. Property research company Hometrack Ltd. said U.K. house values slid 8.7 percent this year, led by a 10.1 percent drop in London, and that prices will “inevitably” decline in 2009.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/dec/29/house-prices-fall
Zitat von Der Guardian hat noch mehr zu den Hauspreisen:House prices dropped by an average 8.7% in 2008 and are set to fall by another 12% next year, property information firm Hometrack said yesterday.
[...]
Melanie Bien, director of mortgage brokers Savills Private Finance, said her company measured the drop in house prices in 2008 at closer to 12% and expected prices to fall by another 11% in the new year.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN3048991520081230
Zitat:Gasoline demand averaged 9.134 million barrels per day during the week ending Dec. 26, down 2.9 percent from the previous week and down 3.8 percent from the same week a year ago, according to the weekly report.

The four-week moving average for gasoline demand, which is often more indicative of long-term trends, was down 3.0 percent compared to year-ago levels, according to MasterCard. Year-to-date, gasoline demand was running 3.2 percent below 2007, the report said.


Laut Mastercard ist der Benzinbedarf in den USA um 3% gegenüber letztem Jahr eingebrochen. Die gewinnen die Daten aus den Kreditkartenzahlungen an Tankstellen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=aWkHUVLFA3LI&refer=transportation
Zitat:General Motors Corp., battling a 22 percent decline in U.S. sales this year, is offering financing discounts including no-interest loans for as long as five years on some 2008 and 2009 models.

The rates range from no interest to 5.9 percent annually, are available through Jan. 5 and may be used with cash rebates of as much as $4,250, Detroit-based GM said today in a statement. The interest-free financing is on models including 2008 Chevrolet TrailBlazer sport-utility vehicles and Saab 9-5 sedans.


Kaum gibt Vater Staat Geld, wird's auch gleich wieder zum Fenster heraus geworfen. 5 Jahre ohne Zinsen bedeuten beim 9-5 ($40000) locker $10000 verlorene Zinsen.

Ok, in dem Fall kann man GM noch nicht mal einen Vorwurf machen, Vater Staat will das ja so.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601209&sid=aDMdKyrurYNc&refer=transportation

Zitat:Reviving GM’s sales has become a priority for U.S. policy makers including the Federal Reserve because of concern that the automaker and its suppliers might go bankrupt and deepen the year-old recession by firing millions of workers. The funds for GMAC are on top of $13.4 billion the Treasury agreed earlier this month to lend to GM and Chrysler LLC.

“The economy has stopped on a dime, and the Fed is looking anywhere there are large markets they can affect in big ways,” said Greg Prost, chief investment officer at Ambassador Capital Management in Detroit, which manages about $800 million. “If they are going to save the car companies, there is going to have to be financing.”

GMAC will now lend to vehicle buyers with credit scores of 621 or higher, compared with a previous standard of at least 700, according to a company statement. The higher threshold had excluded about 42 percent of U.S. consumers.


Staatsgeld ist ja so wertlos, damit kann man jeden bedienen. Ist es nicht zum Kotzen?

Übrigens meine ich "jeden": Laut Wikipedia ist der Fico-Medianwert 723.

Zitat:The company said it won’t finance “higher-risk transactions,” instead concentrating on prime customers who are more likely to repay using “responsible credit standards.” The relaxed policy “will allow us to return to more normal levels of financing volume, and should help in efforts to stabilize the U.S. auto industry,” GMAC President Bill Muir said in today’s statement.
prime customers mit FICO 621? Bill Muir lebt in einem Alternativuniversum.

Zitat:GMAC will pay an 8 percent dividend on the Treasury’s $5 billion of senior preferred equity. The company will also issue warrants in the form of additional preferred equity that will equal 5 percent of the preferred-stock purchase and pay a 9 percent dividend if exercised.

Also, GM bietet Kredite von 0 bis 5.9%, und GMAC zahlt 8% Zinsen? Welche Drogen muß man nehmen, um das für ein nachhaltiges Geschäftsmodell zu halten?

Zitat:GMAC’s 8 percent bonds due in 2031 jumped 6.75 cents to 54.75 cents on the dollar to yield 15.1 percent at 1:09 p.m. in New York, according to Trace, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority’s debt-pricing service. The bonds, which traded at a low of 25 cents on Nov. 24, have jumped 21.75 cents since the Fed on Dec. 24 said it had approved GMAC’s bank holding company application. GM’s stock rose 5.6 percent in New York Stock Exchange

Ich verstehe den Anleihenmarkt nicht mehr. Da wird GMAC noch mehr Miese machen, und noch 23 Jahre laufende GMAC-Anleihen steigen im Wert...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKSEL00041520081229
Zitat:SEOUL, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has injected $800 million of new capital into its South Korean banking arm to lift its capital ratio, Citibank Korea said on Monday.

Sixty percent of the injection will be used to issue new shares while the remaining 40 percent will be for subordinated debt, both to be acquired by the New York-based banking giant, Citi said.


Ich hab' eine Weile geglaubt, der Unsinn mit den Tochterunternehmen wäre dadurch bedingt, daß man Tochterunternehmen dann auch mal Pleite gehen lassen kann. Die letzten Jahre haben mich davon überzeugt, daß das nicht der Fall ist.
Nein, Tochterunternehmen sind dazu da, zusätzliche Risiken zu verstecken.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123064533193442343.html
Zitat:"The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March 2004 levels," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee. He added that both composite indexes and 14 of the 20 metropolitan areas are reporting new record declines. As of October, the 10-city index is down 25% from its mid-2006 peak and the 20-city is down 23%, Mr. Blitzer said.

The indexes showed prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 19% in October from a year earlier and 3.6% from September. The drop marks the 10-city index's 13th straight monthly report of a record decline.

In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices dropped 18% from the prior year, also a record, and 2.2% from September.

Zitat:For the seventh-straight month, no region was able to avoid a year-over-year price drop. Phoenix and Las Vegas were again the worst performers, with drops of 33% and 32%, respectively, from a year ago. San Francisco, Miami, Los Angeles and San Diego followed, with declines between 27% and 31%.

Year-over-year, Dallas and Charlotte again had the best relative performance, with declines of 3% and 4.4%, respectively.

http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/12/30/the-scariest-housing-related-chart-ever/
Auflistung: Hauspreisverfall in Kalifornien
Medianwerte kalifornischer Hauspreise laut Dataquick. 46% runter seit dem Gipfel. Der Autor betitelt sie mit The Scariest Housing-Related Chart Ever, und es fällt schwer, das zu bestreiten.

Hier ist das in eine Kurve umgesetzt (Quelle: Econompicdata).
Hauspreisverfall in Kalifornien
Allerdings neigen die Dataquick-Daten eventuell etwas zur Übertreibung.

http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=12&year=2008&base_name=falling_house_prices_its_worse

Zitat:However bad the picture appears, the current reality is likely somewhat worse.

It is important to remember that the index averages sale prices over the three months from September through November. Sales contracts are typically signed 6-8 weeks before sales are closed. This means that the contracts for the homes sold during this period were mostly written up in the months July through September. Most data show the economy turning sharply lower in September, which means that two of the three months in which the contracts in the October index were signed preceded the sharp downturn.


Die Hauspreisdaten für den Oktober reflektieren die dramatische Entwicklung im September noch nicht.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/12/office-rents-off-as-much-as-25-in-new.html

Zitat von From the NY Times: A Renter’s Market for Manhattan Offices:Even to industry veterans who have lived through other downturns, the precipitous decline in the Manhattan office market, especially in Midtown, has been startling.
[...]
Brokers say that actual rents have fallen much further than the data suggests. Studley said that the asking rents for 40 percent of the spaces included in its research are listed as “negotiable.”
[...]
[A]ctual rents have slipped as much as 25 percent since the summer, said Mitchell L. Konsker, a vice chairman of Cushman & Wakefield.

Das wird sicherlich dem einen oder anderen Immobilien"besitzer", der gehebelt sprich kreditfinanziert auf immer steigende Preise gesetzt hat, das Genick brechen.

Bei so viel düsterer Realität wird's doch mal Zeit, etwas Positives zu zeigen:
http://www.realestatelibrary.com/norent.html

Zitat:In San Diego, prices are expected to continue to rise because our population is increasing faster than we are building houses. That's the bottom line. People are coming from other states, from other countries, and we're having babies. Unless some disaster causes the number of people to decrease, home prices are expected to continue to climb.

Zitat:So how do you become a millionaire? Buy a house for $250,000 and pay it off in 20.6 years and you'll be one. How? In 10.3 years the house will be worth $500,000 and in another 10.3 years it'll be a million. Oh, you haven't paid off the loan yet? That's right, you still owe around $100,000 on it, so really you have $900,000 in equity, which is what we call the difference between what the house is worth and what you owe on it. OK, so you have another year to go, but in any event, at the end of the 22 years you'll own the house free and clear.

Zitat:The Amazing Power Of Leverage

That reminds me of one of the best advantages to buying real estate, the benefit of leverage. As I said, if you buy a house for $400,000 in ten years it'll be worth $800,000 so you doubled your money in 10 years. By the way, this is not theory, but actual events that we have witnessed and participated in. We own many properties ourselves, and so I'm able to look back and give you the benefit of having done it.

But here's my point - you didn't have to come up with the whole $400,000 for the house, you only put 10% down. You only invested $40,000! So when your $40,000 becomes $400,000, that isn't a double, it's a ten-fold increase in your money!


Das ist ein wirklich wunderbarer Text, der einen viel verstehen läßt.

Abschließend möchte ich die Earthtimes zitieren:

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/12242.html
Titel: U.K. house prices continue to climb forever upwards
Hm, ja, in Zimbawbe-Dollars vielleicht.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/30/us/30divorce.html?_r=1
Zitat:With nearly one in six homes worth less than the mortgage owed on it, according to Moody’s Economy.com, divorce lawyers and financial advisers around the country say the logistics of divorce have been turned around. “We used to fight about who gets to keep the house,” said Gary Nickelson, president of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers. “Now we fight about who gets stuck with the dead cow.

Wo fast jedes sechste Haus weniger wert ist als seine Hypothek, haben Scheidungsanwälte die ganz neue Erfahrung, daß nicht mehr darum gekämpft wird wer das Haus behält, sondern wer es los wird.

Zitat:As a result, divorce has become more complicated and often more expensive, with lower prospects for money on the other side. Some divorce lawyers say that business has slowed or that clients are deciding to stay together because there are no assets left to help them start over.

Zitat:Mr. Abramowitz said he was in the middle of several cases where the value of the real estate could not be determined. “All of a sudden,” he said, “prices are all over the place, people aren’t closing, and it becomes virtually impossible to judge how far the market has fallen, because nothing is selling.

es ist noch nicht mal mehr feststellbar, was ein Haus wert wäre - es verkaufen sich keine Häuser.
Zitat:“There’s three other houses for sale on our same road,” she said. “There’s no way our house would sell.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/business/28wamu.html
Die New York Times hat da einiges über die Art und Weise, wie WaMu Kredite vergab, zusammengeschrieben. Ich zitiere mal die interessantesten Punkte:

Zitat:As a supervisor at a Washington Mutual mortgage processing center, John D. Parsons was accustomed to seeing baby sitters claiming salaries worthy of college presidents, and schoolteachers with incomes rivaling stockbrokers’. He rarely questioned them. A real estate frenzy was under way and WaMu, as his bank was known, was all about saying yes.

Babysitter mit Gehältern von Collegepräsidenten und Schullehrer mit Einkommen ähnlich denen von Aktienhändlern? Kein Problem.

Zitat:Yet even by WaMu’s relaxed standards, one mortgage four years ago raised eyebrows. The borrower was claiming a six-figure income and an unusual profession: mariachi singer.
Mr. Parsons could not verify the singer’s income, so he had him photographed in front of his home dressed in his mariachi outfit. The photo went into a WaMu file. Approved.

Mariachi ist eine mexikanische Musikform, die typischerweise mindestens 8 Instrumente erfordert - und üblicherweise singen die Leute selbst. Große Reichtümer kann man bei den Leuten nicht erwarten.
Naja, um einen Kredit zu kriegen, brauchte der Mann sich nur im Outfit vor sein Häuschen stellen und fotografieren lassen.

Zitat:While Mr. Parsons, whose incarceration is not related to his work for WaMu, oversaw a team screening mortgage applications, he was snorting methamphetamine daily, he said.

“In our world, it was tolerated,” said Sherri Zaback, who worked for Mr. Parsons and recalls seeing drug paraphernalia on his desk. “Everybody said, ‘He gets the job done.’ ”


Klar, Kontrolleure arbeiten besonders gut, wenn sie unter Drogen stehen. Ist doch bei Dir auch so?

Zitat:WaMu gave mortgage brokers handsome commissions for selling the riskiest loans, which carried higher fees, bolstering profits and ultimately the compensation of the bank’s executives. WaMu pressured appraisers to provide inflated property values that made loans appear less risky, enabling Wall Street to bundle them more easily for sale to investors.

Je riskanter der Kredit, desto höher die Gebühren, desto höher die Boni für die Chefetage.
Um das aber gebündelt auf den Markt werfen zu können, mußte das wieder etwas weniger riskant aussehen, deshalb wurden ... die Werte der Immobilien hochgerechnet.

Auch das ist ein Grund, warum die Blase entstand.

Zitat:“It was the Wild West,” said Steven M. Knobel, a founder of an appraisal company, Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson, that did business with WaMu until 2007. “If you were alive, they would give you a loan. Actually, I think if you were dead, they would still give you a loan.

Zitat:“It was a disgrace,” said Dana Zweibel, a former financial representative at a WaMu branch in Tampa, Fla. “We were giving loans to people that never should have had loans.”

If Ms. Zweibel doubted whether customers could pay, supervisors directed her to keep selling, she said.

“We were told from up above that that’s not our concern,” she said. “Our concern is just to write the loan.”


Zweifelt der Mitarbeiter daran, daß der Kunde den Kredit sich leisten kann? Warum tut er das, er soll doch den Kredit vergeben...

Zitat:WaMu underscored its eagerness to lend with an advertising campaign introduced during the 2003 Academy Awards: “The Power of Yes.” No mere advertising pitch, this was also the mantra inside the bank, underwriters said.

“WaMu came out with that slogan, and that was what we had to live by,” Ms. Zaback said. “We joked about it a lot.” A file would get marked problematic and then somehow get approved. “We’d say: ‘O.K.! The power of yes.’ ”

Zitat:On the other end of the country, at WaMu’s San Diego processing office, Ms. Zaback’s job was to take loan applications from branches in Southern California and make sure they passed muster. Most of the loans she said she handled merely required borrowers to provide an address and Social Security number, and to state their income and assets.

Die meisten der Kredite erforderten von den Schuldern gerade mal Adresse, Sozialversicherungsnummer, und die Angabe von Einkommen und Besitz. Seufz.

Zitat:
On one loan application in 2005, a borrower identified himself as a gardener and listed his monthly income at $12,000, Ms. Zaback recalled. She could not verify his business license, so she took the file to her boss, Mr. Parsons.

He used the mariachi singer as inspiration: a photo of the borrower’s truck emblazoned with the name of his landscaping business went into the file. Approved.


Ein Gärtner mit Monatseinkommen von $12000? Es gibt Schwierigkeiten beim Überprüfen seiner Lizenz? Ein Photo vom LKW, und gut ist.

Zitat:On another occasion, Ms. Zaback asked a loan officer for verification of an applicant’s assets. The officer sent a letter from a bank showing a balance of about $150,000 in the borrower’s account, she recalled. But when Ms. Zaback called the bank to confirm, she was told the balance was only $5,000.

The loan officer yelled at her, Ms. Zaback recalled. “She said, ‘We don’t call the bank to verify.’ ” Ms. Zaback said she told Mr. Parsons that she no longer wanted to work with that loan officer, but he replied: “Too bad.”


Das ist nahezu unglaublich. "Wir rufen nicht bei der Bank an, um Angaben zu prüfen".

Zitat:The sheer workload at WaMu ensured that loan reviews were limited. Ms. Zaback’s office had 108 people, and several hundred new files a day. She was required to process at least 10 files daily.
“I’d typically spend a maximum of 35 minutes per file,” she said. “It was just disheartening. Just spit it out and get it done. That’s what they wanted us to do. Garbage in, and garbage out.”

Ok, bei 35 Minuten maximal pro Antrag kann man auch nicht viel Zeit für einen Anruf bei der Bank opfern.

Zitat:By 2005, the word was out that WaMu would accept applications with a mere statement of the borrower’s income and assets — often with no documentation required — so long as credit scores were adequate, according to Ms. Zaback and other underwriters.

“We had a flier that said, ‘A thin file is a good file,’ ” recalled Michele Culbertson, a wholesale sales agent with WaMu.


"Eine dünner Ordner ist ein guter Ordner". Hey, möglichst wenig Informationen...

Zitat:Martine Lado, an agent in the Irvine, Calif., office, said she coached brokers to leave parts of applications blank to avoid prompting verification if the borrower’s job or income was sketchy.

“We were looking for people who understood how to do loans at WaMu,” Ms. Lado said.


Die Frau schulte Mitarbeiter darin, daß sie Teile von Anträgen nicht ausfüllten, wenn diese Teile Überprüfungen herausfordern würden. "Wir suchten Leute, die verstanden wie man Kredite bei WaMu machte". Wozu nur? Eine Stempelmaschine kann das doch viel besser...

Zitat:With a fixed income of about $3,200 a month, the couple needed a fixed-rate loan. But their broker earned a commission of three percentage points by arranging an option ARM for them, and did so by listing their income as $7,000 a month. Soon, their payment jumped from roughly $1,000 a month to about $3,000, causing them to fall behind.

Übel.

Zitat:
In September, Mr. Killinger was forced to retire. Later that month, with WaMu buckling under roughly $180 billion in mortgage-related loans, regulators seized the bank and sold it to JPMorgan for $1.9 billion, a fraction of the $40 billion valuation the stock market gave WaMu at its peak.

Im September 2008 ist dann der Boss des Ladens entlassen worden... und etwas später hat JP Morgan Chase den Laden aufgekauft - für 1.9 Mrd (nicht lange später hat JP M. C. dann 25 Mrd vom Staat bekommen).

Ich bin sicher nicht sicher, wie viele Milliarden JP Morgan Chase zuviel gezahlt hat - aber wahrscheinlich eine astronomische Summe.

Zitat:Some shareholders were irate that Mr. Killinger and other executives were excluding mortgage losses from the computation of their bonuses. Others were enraged that WaMu turned down an $8-a-share takeover bid from JPMorgan.

Hypothekenverluste sind bei der Berechnung der Managerboni _nicht_ berechnet worden.

Ich vermute, dem Aufkäufer von WaMu ist _sehr_ unwohl. Und ich würde, wäre ich Topmanager bei WaMu gewesen, mich längst in ein Land begeben haben, das kein Auslieferungsabkommen mit den USA hat.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123059909346041273.html
Zitat:Typically, pawnshop customers have a household income of about $29,000, according to Dave Adelman, president of the 2,400-member National Pawnbrokers Association. But operators around the country say they are seeing a surge in new activity fueled in part by a different clientele: middle- and upper-middle-class customers facing ravaged stock portfolios, tightened bank credit and unexpected layoffs. In areas dogged by high unemployment and foreclosure rates, the pawn business is especially robust.
Typische Leihhauskunden haben $29000 Jahreseinkommen - aber Leihhäuser haben nun einen zusätzlichen Kundenkreis - die besser Verdienenden.
Zitat:Even Beverly Loan has seen a shift in customer patterns. "We have had so many $50,000-plus loans and more businesses [as clients] than ever before," said Chief Executive Officer Jordan Tabach-Bank. Many business clients, he said, are "getting loans to meet payroll or other obligations because their lines of credit are frozen."

Zitat:This year, the number of first-time pawnshop users is up 10%, according to Mr. Adelman of the pawnbroker trade group. Owners say the rate at which people are coming back to retrieve property and pay off loans has fallen about 10%. That leaves the store on the hook to sell the goods.

10% mehr Kunden, und 10% weniger Auslösungen.
Zitat:Though some pawnbrokers now have more items to sell -- the result of higher loan defaults -- their general prospects remain healthy. Richard Shane, managing director at Jefferies & Co., who covers the pawnshop industry, said publicly traded companies, such as Cash America International Inc., are doing well in this difficult economy. (Pawn balances at the company rose by 16% in the quarter ended Sept. 30.) Banks, moreover, continue to make funds available to them "because the businesses are strong and cash flow is strong," said Mr. Shane.

Gute Aussichten für noch eine Industrie...

Oder vielleicht doch eher "Depression"?

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1868932,00.html?cnn=yes

Zitat:Gaming revenue in Clark County, which includes downtown Las Vegas and the Strip, is down 8.5% for the year, to $8.3 billion. But the revenue for October, the last month for which figures are available, is off an ominous 24.3% vs. the same month in 2007. Visitor volume is down 3% over last year, though the city's convention business is holding steady.

Las Vegas:
8.5% weniger Spieleinnahmen in diesem Jahr.
24.3% weniger Spieleinnahmen im Oktober gegenüber dem Vorjahresoktober.
3% weniger Besucher.

Zitat:The recession is hitting Las Vegas on all fronts. Nevada legislators have struggled to close a deficit of more than $1 billion in the 2009 budget. Budget projections for 2010 and 2011 also look grim. Construction on Boyd Gaming's $4.8 billion Echelon resort was stopped last August just as three of its towers reached the 12th floor (the tallest would have risen to 55 stories). Construction won't resume until 2010, though the cranes will remain towering above the site (it's cheaper to leave them in place — and these days no one else in town needs them).

A mile or two down the Strip, MGM Mirage just sold off Treasure Island for $775 million to billionaire casino operator Phil Ruffin. The cash infusion should help the corporation finish construction on its $9.1 billion CityCenter, the largest private construction job in the U.S.


Der Artikel hat übrigens ein Bild vom CityCenter. Ich kenne jemanden, der sich bei so einem Anblick fragt, worum die in die Höhe bauen, wo sie doch so viel Land haben...
Zitat:From any vantage point, the situation is grim. Construction in the area dropped 92% in October, compared with the same month a year earlier. In November the county issued 80 new home permits, down from an average of almost 500 permits a month in 2007. Housing prices have deflated with a deafening groan. Keith Schwer, who runs the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas, estimates that 50% of homeowners owe more than what their home is worth.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123024947406734259.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Zitat:Across the U.S., many state lotteries are reporting hefty declines, with ticket sales down nearly 10% in California and more than 4% in Texas over the past few months. In good years, these lotteries have turned over more than $1 billion apiece to education programs, the most common lottery beneficiaries.

Lottery officials have long praised their games as low-cost entertainment that grow even more appealing to players when the economy turns down. But lottery sales nationwide fell about $215 million, or nearly 2%, from July through September compared with the same stretch in 2007, according to La Fleur's magazine, which tracks the lottery business.


Noch eine angeblich rezessionsfeste Industrie erlebt einen Einbruch: Die Lotterien.
Zitat:At focus groups held for the commission earlier this year, about half the players said the poor economy had prompted them to cut back on lottery purchases. Die-hard players -- those who bought tickets in the previous month -- reported small cutbacks. But 27% of less-frequent players, those who bought tickets some time in the past year, reported declines of 81% to 100% in their lottery purchases, Mr. Heith said.

und das sieht noch ein bischen schlimmer als: Dauerspieler "small cutbacks", aber 27% der Gelegenheitsspieler spielen 81 bis 100% weniger.
Zitat:But Jose Torres, a disabled forklift driver who lives nearby, said that if anything, the recession has prompted him to spend a little more, maybe $2 a day instead of $1. "We need the money -- we're broke," he said.
Das ist natürlich auch eine Methode, mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit mehr broken zu werden.

Und wen trifft der Einbruch:

Zitat:In some states, lottery officials are warning programs that benefited from lottery sales that they will be receiving less money. Massachusetts, which uses much of its lottery funds to aid cities and towns, expects net proceeds to drop to $863 million from $913 million last fiscal year.

In Bridgewater, 25 miles south of Boston, that aid accounts for about 10% of town revenue, and a cut this year would probably require closing a library or a center for senior citizens, said Paul Sullivan, the municipal administrator.


Natürlich wieder das Sozialsystem. Ich bin immer wieder fasziniert, auf wie tönernen Füßen Staaten ihre soziale Infrastruktur aufbauen.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/broward/sfl-flbrecruits1220sbdec20,0,1493841.story?track=rss
Zitat:In a crumbling economy, jobs disappear and opportunities fade. But one employer always has openings: the U.S. military.

Just four years after South Florida recruiters struggled to meet even half their quotas, the Army is exceeding enlistment goals by appealing to a wide range of candidates who see limited job options in the civilian world.

Zitat:Said Capt. Robert Brown, who commands Army recruiters in Broward County Click here for restaurant inspection reports: "There is no question that the economy and the unemployment rate have been driving traffic into the recruiting station. We put a mortgage broker in the Army the other day. These are people looking for that stability, the paycheck and health benefits."

Stabilität und Gesundheit im Militär? Im US-Militär? Manchmal zweifele ich ja an der geistigen Stabilität der Leute.

Zitat:Just three years ago, with the economy strong and U.S. casualties in Iraq running high, the Army failed to meet its annual goal of 80,000 enlistees by almost 9 percent. Shortfalls in South Florida ran as high as 50 percent.

Now, fatalities in Iraq are fewer, jobs are scarce and the Army has sweetened incentives. Enlistment bonuses can run as high as $40,000. A new GI Bill taking effect next year will cover tuition and fees for any in-state public university and provide allowances for housing and books.

The maximum age for enlistment was raised to 42 in 2005, minimum test scores were lowered and the Army began issuing more waivers for criminal offenses. A felony conviction for cocaine possession, for example, does not necessarily disqualify an otherwise good candidate.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/28401097/for/cnbc/
Etwas Neues aus Venezuela:
Zitat:Venezuela will seize several gold mining concessions that previous governments granted private operators, in a bid to supplement falling oil prices with proceeds from state-controlled gold, President Hugo Chavez said Saturday.

Chavez named no specific contracts or companies to be affected, but his mining minister has vowed to next year take over the nation's largest mine, Las Cristinas, which is operated by Canadian mining company Crystallex International Corp.

"We are taking back some concessions that former governments have given, and whose permits are still held by some rich people," in order to reduce public reliance on oil, Chavez said.


Naja, ist der Ruf ist ruiniert, braucht man sich um das Vertrauen der Investoren in das Land ja auch keine großen Sorgen mehr machen. Und rich people sind ja von Natur aus böse und schuldig.

Zitat:Crystallex won a contract to develop the mine in 2002, but was forced to halt construction after Venezuela's environment ministry denied its final permit last May.

Mining operations have not yet begun at Las Cristinas — located in Venezuela's biologically rich Imataca Forest Reserve, which covers 8.6 million acres (3.5 million hectares). Environmentalists warn that mining there could upset the delicate ecology.

Venezuela produced roughly 4.2 tons (4.3 metric tons) of gold in 2007, and Chavez said he hopes to double that figure next year. The country is also rich in diamonds, bauxite and other minerals.


Also hat Crystallex die Mine aufgebaut und produktionsfertig gemacht, aber nie produzieren dürfen, und wird jetzt enteignet.

Na, wie lange es wohl dauert, bis das Ausland wieder bereit ist in Venezuela zu investieren? DUmmheit stirbt nie aus, ich weiß, aber Chavez geht da sehr weit.

Beenden möchte ich diesen Newsletter mit Grüßen von BRIC, Baltischen Tigern und Island.
Aktienkurse der BRIC-Länder, 2005 bis jetzt.
Blau Brasilien, Grün Rußland, Gelb Indien, Rot China. Wenn man die Inflation einrechnet, ist der Kursgewinn sicherlich noch geringer.

Aktienkurse der Baltischen Länder und Islands, 2005 bis jetzt.
Blau Estland, Grün Lettland, Gelb Litauen, Rot ist Island.

Aufgrund der großen Nachfrage noch ein Bonusbild:
London, Tokio, Frankfurt, New York
London, Tokio, Frankfurt, New York

Gruß, Uwe

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