Uwe Ohse

2008-11-06 14:57:12

Alles wird gut! #56 (Digest)

Sendedatum 2008-11-06 14:57:12
Ausgabe 56
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:

Aber der Bärenmarkt ist vorbei:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bear-market-has-ended-says-morgan-stanley-992370.html

Zitat:Bear market has ended, says Morgan Stanley

Analysts at the US investment bank Morgan Stanley are recommending
that clients start to buy shares again after more than a year of
falling markets. In an investment strategy report, analysts at the
bank said that all four indicators they use to gauge the equity
market outlook have started to indicate a turn in the downward trend.

Und nun zu den zukünftigen Leichen:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200811052044DOWJONESDJONLINE001009_FORTUNE5.htm

Zitat:A top General Motors Corp. (GM) executive on Wednesday said the
next 100 days could represent the most crucial time in the history
of the troubled company and entire U.S. auto industry.

die nächsten 100 Tage seien entscheidend für GM und die ganze US-Autoindustrie. Am 12. Februar ist die Sache also entschieden.

Zitat:Now they're pushing hard for speedy implementation of a $25 billion
loan program approved this fall to help auto makers modernize
plants. The Energy Department has said it could take six to 18 months
to write rules and issue the loans.

Clarke made a case that domestic auto makers, despite decades of
downsizing and job cuts, remain relevant to the national economy. GM,
Chrysler and Ford Motor Co. (F), he said, spend $35 billion a year
on payroll in the U.S. and provide benefits to 750,000 retirees.


35 Mrd Löhne und Pensionen. 25 Mrd gewünschte Stütze. Wetten, daß da
noch mehr kommt?
Und weiter mit den Totgeglaubten:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFDvjXsYCcXg

Zitat:MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the bond insurers crippled
by credit-rating downgrades, posted wider losses than analysts
anticipated after slumping credit markets forced them to increase
reserves for claims.

MBIA dropped 22 percent in New York trading as the company reported
a $806.5 million net loss after setting $961 million aside for
guarantees on home-equity loan bonds. Ambac fell 41 percent as it
recorded a $2.43 billion net loss after reserving $3.1 billion.

Leiche von Ratingagentur abgewertet:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Moodys-cuts-Ambac-Baa1-outlook/story.aspx?guid={16668E11-9E4E-4C0E-96E8-5D5E8A9659C4}

Zitat:Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday downgraded the insurance
financial strength rating of Ambac Assurance Corp. and Ambac Assurance
UK Ltd. by several notches to Baa1 from Aa3 and cut Ambac Financial
Group's senior unsecured debt to Ba1 from A3. The move reflects
Moody's view of Ambac's diminished business and financial profile
resulting from its exposure to losses from U.S. mortgage risks and
disruption in the financial guaranty business more broadly. The
outlook for the ratings is developing.

Sind die wieder schnell!
Bock zum Gärtner:

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/11/fed-hires-bear-stearns-risk-boss

Zitat:former Bear Stearns chief risk officer Michael Alix has landed a
job in the office of the Federal Reserve charged with assessing the
safety and soundness of domestic banking institutions.

Der risk management-Chef von Bear Stearns macht nun dasselbe für die FED.
Er hat zwei Jahre bei Bear Stearns verbracht, damit dürfte die FED dann
2010 oder 11 erledigt sein Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article5078799.ece
Zitat:Construction activity in the UK fell at a record rate last month as
demand for new houses and commercial property continued to wane amid
the global financial turmoil, according to a key industry survey.

The CIPS/Construction Purchasing Managers' Index measured construction
activity at 35.1 in October — the eighth consecutive monthly fall
this year.


UK: Bauaktivität fällt mit Rekordgeschwindigkeit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEJwkP6e4q8U
Zitat:New York City commercial real estate transactions plunged 61 percent
in 2008 through October as the global credit crisis roiled lending
and sidelined buyers.

About $17 billion of transactions have closed so far and the market
is headed for its worst year since 2004,


wir sind erst auf dem Niveau von 2004 - der Hammer nimmt erst Geschwindigkeit
auf, er ist noch nicht unten...

Zitat:[...]
Macklowe paid $6 billion last year for seven Midtown skyscrapers,
primarily using short term debt. His lender, Deutsche Bank AG, took
control of the towers in February and sold five of them for $2.83
billion. Macklowe also sold the General Motors Building and three
other buildings for $3.97 billion to Mortimer Zuckerman's Boston
Properties Inc.

Man achte darauf, welcher Bankname da erwähnt wird.
Zitat:[...]
Two properties remain on the market five months after they went up
for sale. They are Worldwide Plaza on Eighth Avenue, a 1.7 million
square-foot tower, and 1540 Broadway in Times Square, the former
Bertelsmann Building.

The seller of both buildings: Harry Macklowe's lender, Deutsche Bank.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/omb/pdf/sumss11_08.pdf
Zitat:- Before this crisis passes, we expect there to be 31,000 fewer jobs
in the securities sector of our local economy alone, and a total of
147,000 fewer private sector jobs total.

Interessante Quote: 1 Job in der Finanzindustrie auf 3.75 sonstige verlorene
Jobs.

Zitat:- We are now forecasting that our tax revenues in FY 2009 will be
$2.6 billion less than they were last year, and that they will be
$3.1 billion below FY 2008 levels in FY 2010. Since last June when
we adopted the budget, our forecast for tax revenues is down by $285
million for this year and down by $1.3 billion in FY 2010.

- On the expense side, our pension funds are down 20% so far this year.
If they remain at these levels on June 30, 2009, then we will face
large increases in our already heavy pension costs over the next
few years. We plan to apply $1.1 billion of the funding previously
set aside for the City’s future Retiree Health Benefits liability
toward funding this expense in FY 2010 through FY 2012.


Ergo: Entweder der Markt erholt sich massiv, oder die Fondmanager riskieren
viel bis zum 30.6., oder NY zahlt.
Möchtest Du in der Situation Fondmanager sein?

Die Leerstandsvorhersage und Mietpreisvorhersage aus dem PDF:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SRJFaJfFVuI/AAAAAAAADt0/zLLSOilRn2s/s1600-h/Bloomberg1.jpg
Arg optimistisch, wenn Du mich fragst: Von 2000 auf 2003 stieg die
Leerstandsrate von 2.x auf 12.x, von 2007 auf 2009 soll sind von 5.x
auf 12.x steigen?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=awS5vZQvmwd4
Zitat:Credit card companies were shut out of the market for bonds backed
by customer payments in October for the first time in more than 15
years, as investors shunned the debt amid the global credit freeze.

Kreditkartenfirmen konnten ihre Kredite nicht versilbern.
Der Markt ist lernfähig.

Zitat:``Nobody is eager to put money to work given the uncertainty in the
market,'' said James Grady, a managing director at Deutsche Bank
AG's asset management unit. ``When you think it can't get worse,
it continues to get worse. There is not a demand'' for these bonds.

Top-rated credit card-backed securities maturing in three years traded
at a gap, or spread, of 475 basis points over the London interbank
offered rate, or Libor, during the week ended Oct. 30, JPMorgan Chase
& Co. data show, 25 basis points higher than the previous week. The
debt was trading at 50 basis points more than Libor in January.

http://www.clusterstock.com/2008/11/broke-consumers-hit-credit-cards-for-a-few-last-pennies
Zitat:Total loans from commercial banks to consumers grew by $89 billion
for the 12 months ending in September. $61 billion of that was credit
card debt, and the amount in recent weeks has exploded.
[...]
Commercial Banks, Outstanding Credit Card Balances ... SOARED
by an eye-opening + $7.1 billion in the WEEK ending October 15th,
representing a +1.9% single-week rate of expansion ... or ... nearly
ONE-HUNDRED PERCENT annualized (+98.4%).
[...]
* Credit Card Loans, 10 months Sep07-thru-Jul-08 ... up + $29.1 billion

* Credit Card Loans, 10 weeks Aug-08-to-mid-Oct-08 ... up + $32.3 billion

"In other words, Commercial Bank 'exposure' via the total amount of
Credit Card 'loans' outstanding has risen MORE in the last ten WEEKS,
than it did in the previous ten MONTHS COMBINED !!!


Und:

Zitat:What consumer spending there is has been fueled in part by credit
card. Greg notes this uncomfortable piece of data: the second largest
"merchant-vendor" for credit card use is now McDonalds. This suggests
that many consumers are in serious distress when they need to get
their $4 Big Mac and fries with a credit card.
Roubini über China:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/roubini-foresees-chinese-hard-landing.html

Zitat:There is thus now a growing risk of a hard landing in China. Let us be
clear what we mean by hard landing. In a country with the potential
growth of China hard landing would occur if the growth rate of the
economy were to slow down to 5-6% as China needs a growth rate of
9-10% to absorb about 24 million folks joining the labor force every
year; it needs a growth rate of 9-10% to move every year about 12-14
million poor rural farmers to the modern industrial/manufacturing
urban sector.
Da ist ein wachsendes Risiko einer harten Landung Chinas...
Zitat:[...]
But the worst is still to come in the next few quarters: after an ok
second quarter in the U.S. (boosted by the tax rebates) U.S. retailers
hoped that the consumer downturn would be minor: they thus placed
over the summer massive orders for Chinese (and other imported)
goods for Q3 and Q4. But now the U.S. holiday season clearly looks
like the worst that the U.S. will experience in decades and the
result of it will be a huge overhang of unsold Chinese good. Thus,
you can expect that orders of Chinese goods for Q1 of 2009 and the
rest of 2009 will be sharply down dragging Chinese exports to the
U.S. into sharply negative territory.
Im Sommer seien aus den USA noch massive Bestellungen chinesischer Waren
für das 3. und 4. Quartal gekommen. Da es aber noch nach der schlimmsten
Weihnachtssaison seit mehreren Jahrzehnten aussieht, werden wohl etliche
unverkaufte chinesische Waren übrigbleiben.
Daher kannst Du erwarten, daß Bestellungen chinesischer Waren in 2009
sehr gering sein werden.

Zitat:And it is not just Chinese exports to the U.S.: until a few months
ago the U.S. was starting to contract but the rest of the advanced
economies (Europe, Canada, Japan and Australia/New Zealand) were
growing at a sustained rate, thus boosting Chinese exports. But
there is now strong evidence that a severe recession has now started
in almost all of the advanced economies. You can thus expect that
Chinese export growth to Europe, Canada, Japan, etc. will sharply
decelerate in the next few quarters, thus adding to the fall in
Chinese net exports.

Der Slowdown kommt da erst noch - und es sieht dort jetzt schon weniger als
optimal aus.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122592835021203025.html
Zitat:The report, titled "Shopper in Crisis," found that 41% of upper-income
consumers reduced spending on nonessential groceries, and a fourth of
these consumers said they gave up favorite brands over six months in
2008. Nearly one-third of high-income shoppers said they bought more
private-label products during the second quarter, up from about 20%
in the first quarter of this year.
41% der höheren Einkommen haben ihre Ausgaben bei nicht essentiellen Lebensmitteln reduziert.

Zitat:"This isn't belt-tightening, it's belt-notching," says Thom Blischok,
president of consulting and innovation for IRI. "These ritual changes
are much deeper and happening much faster than we expected."

die Leute schnallen ihren Gürtel nicht nur enger, sie machen sogar noch
mehr Löcher hinein...
Erinnere Dich an diesen Ausblick, wenn Du den letzten Punkt dieser Mail
siehst.
Vom 17.1.2001, als Satire gemeint und keine geworden:

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784

Zitat:"My fellow Americans," Bush said, "at long last, we have reached the
end of the dark period in American history that will come to be known
as the Clinton Era, eight long years characterized by unprecedented
economic expansion, a sharp decrease in crime, and sustained peace
overseas. The time has come to put all of that behind us."
http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/finanzdienstleister/:Verspekuliert-WestLB-bringt-Sparkassen-in-N%F6te/434726.html
Zitat:Zahlreiche Sparkassen haben weit stärker in riskante Wertpapiere
investiert als bislang bekannt. Nach FTD-Informationen steht in
Nordrhein-Westfalen eine ganze Reihe von Instituten vor hohen
Abschreibungen - vor allem kleinere Häuser sind betroffen.

Die Düsseldorfer Landesbank, die den NRW-Sparkassen zu 50,4 Prozent
gehört, hatte den kommunalen Instituten zwischen 2003 und 2006
in großem Stil sogenannte CDO-Papiere verkauft. Die Transaktionen
erfolgten im Rahmen eines "House of Europe" getauften Programms, das
alles in allem 5 Mrd. Euro schwer war. Die WestLB-Investmentbanker
hatten die hochkomplexen Kreditpapiere nicht nur vertrieben, sondern
selbst strukturiert.


Dem Artikel fehlt leider Substand (Zahlen, Namen).
Gruß, Uwe

Wollen Sie den Digest abbestellen?