Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2008-11-04 10:05:31
Ausgabe 55
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


schon etwas älter:
Zitat:
Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate
real estate. That will purge the rottenness out of the system. High
costs of living and high living will come down. People will work
harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and
enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent
people.

das klingt wie der Traum aller Fundis, und stammt von Andrew Mellon,
Finanzminister der USA, 1931.

Das schrieb jemand über die 30er:

Zitat:
A particularly destabilizing aspect [during the crisis] was the
tendency of fears about the soundness of banks and expectations of
exchange-rate devaluations to reinforce each other...

Ein destabilisierender Aspekt während der Krise war die Tendenz, daß sich
die Furcht über die Gesundheit der Banken und die Erwartungen von
Währungsabwertungen gegenseitig verstärkt haben.
Zitat:
An element that the two type of crises had in common was the so-called
"hot money," short-term deposits held by foreigners in domestic banks.

Ein Aspekt, den beide Arten Krisen gemeinsam hatten, war das sogenannte
heiße Geld, kurzfristige Anlagen von Auslaendern in heimischen Banken.
Zitat:
On one hand, expectations of devaluation induced outflows of the
hot-money deposits (as well as flight by domestic depositors), which
threatened to trigger general bank runs.

Auf der einen Seite hat die Erwartung von Abwertung zur Flucht dieser
Gelder (zusammen mit den Geldern einheimischer Anleger) gefuehrt, was
Banks Runs hätte auslösen können.
Zitat:
On the other hand, a fall in confidence in a domestic banking system
(arising, for example, from the failure of a major bank) of ten led to
flight of short-term capital from the country, draining reserves ....

Auf der anderen Seite hat das gesunkene Vertrauen ins heimische Bankensystem
(zum Beispiel wegen des Scheiterns einer großen Bank) dazu geführt daß
das kurzfristig angelegte Geld aus dem Land floh, und damit die
Währungsreserven verringerte.
Zitat:
Other than abandoning the parity altogether, central banks could
do little in the face of banking and exchange-rate crises, as the
former seemed to demand easy money policies while the latter required
monetary tightening.

Außer die Parität (Währung, Kaufkraft) aufzugeben, konnten die Zentralbanken
wenig tun angesichts von Bank- und Währungskrisen, da das eine eine
Lockerung der Zinsen und das eine eine Anhebung erforderte.
Anders gesagt: mehr als den Dingen ihren Gang lassen konnten die
Zentralbanken nicht.

Interessant ist vielleicht der Autor dieser Worte: Bernanke. Ja, genau der.

Obiges ist natürlich aus der Sicht eines Bankers geschrieben, der sich
bemüht hat, die Sache auf geringere Komplexität herunterzubrechen.
In die Gleichung müssen heute noch Furcht um/vor
- Versicherungen
- Staatsbankrott
- Shadow banking system
- Pensionsfonds (und damit verbunden sind weite Teile der Industrie und
eben auch die Staatshaushalte), und
- deutlich höhere Abhängigkeit aller großen Nationen vom Außenhandel
, und von diesen Akteuren auf dem Markt sind einige bereits Spielbälle
des Marktes.
Bis jetzt trifft das die kleineren Nationen. Aber so "well contained"
wie alle anderen Probleme der letzten anderthalb Jahre gewesen sind,
kann man wohl nicht hoffen, daß das so bleibt.

Wenn das letzte Jahr eines gezeigt hat, dann das: Die Vernetzung der Welt
durch Globalisierung hat ganz gewaltige Rückkopplungseffekte gebracht.

Ich kenne ausgesprochen wenige Leute, die Rückkopplungseffekte überhaupt
verstehen... _nicht gut_.


Und nun eine kleine Story über die depfa:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/02/business/02global.html

Zitat:On a snowy day two years ago, the school board in Whitefish Bay,
Wis., gathered to discuss a looming problem: how to plug a gaping
hole in the teachers’ retirement plan.

It turned to David W. Noack, a trusted local investment banker,
who proposed that the district borrow from overseas and use the
money for a complex investment that offered big profits.


um ein klaffendes Loch zu stopfen...
Zitat:Soon, Whitefish Bay and the four other districts borrowed $165
million from Depfa and contributed $35 million of their own money
to purchase three C.D.O.’s sold by the Royal Bank of Canada,
which had a relationship with Mr. Noack’s company.

The schools’ $200 million was actually used as collateral for
a complicated form of insurance guaranteeing about $20 billion of
corporate bonds. That investment — known as a synthetic C.D.O. —
committed the boards to paying off other bondholders if corporations
failed to honor their debts.

If just 6 percent of the bonds insured went bad, the Wisconsin
educators could lose all their money. If none of the bonds defaulted,
the schools would receive about $1.8 million a year after paying
off their own debt. By comparison, the C.D.O.’s offered only a
modestly better return than a $35 million investment in ultra-safe
Treasury bonds, which would have paid about $1.5 million a year,
with virtually no risk.
[...]
Last March the delicate web tying Wisconsin, Dublin and Manhattan
became an anchor dragging everyone down.
[...]
Most, if not all, of the $200 million would probably be lost.


wurde beim CDO-Spiel mitgemacht. Und Depfa saß auf 165 Millionen
Schulden, die voraussichtlich nicht gezahlt werden können.
Und ebenso verwickelt war die New Yorker Transit Authority (U-Bahn) und:
Zitat:The Depfa fallout doesn’t end there. Rating agencies have
downgraded the bonds of more than 75 municipal agencies backed by
Depfa, including in California, Connecticut, Illinois and South
Dakota. Officials in Florida, Massachusetts and Montana have cut
budgets because of C.D.O.’s or similar risky bets.

Ich ahne, daß die Depfa dauerhaft nur beschränkt erfolgreich sein wird.

War da nicht die ganze Zeit von kurzfristigen Refinanzierungsschwierigkeiten die Rede? Das da oben klingt mehr wie systematisch Scheiße (lies den Artikel).

Hm, jetzt wo ich das geschrieben habe, hab' ich mal nachgelesen:

1922 Gründung auf Preußische Landespfandbriefanstalt
1949 -> Wiesbaden
1951 Umbenannt in Deutsche Pfandbriefanstalt
1991 Börsengang.
2001 Aufspaltung in Depfa Bank plc in Dublin, und Aareal Bank.
2006 Nachsteuergewinn: 526 Mio EUR.
Finanzierungsvolume on balance sheet: 167.438 Mio (167 Mrd)
off balance sheet: 21.855 Mio.
Dabei 5.5 Prozent der Anlagen "lower then A3".
Kernkapital (Tier I): 3156 Mio.
"Supplementary" (T2): 1350 Mio.
Kernkapitalquote: 9.5%. (2005: 12.4%)
Kapitalquote (T1+T2): 13.5&. (2005: 16.9%)
Tatsächliche Hebelung: 37fach (Bilanz durch (T1+T2)).

353019720 Mio Aktien.
Buchwert pro Aktie: 7.87 EUR.
Aktienkurs 2006: 12.01-15.6.
Dividende pro Aktie: 0.40 EUR.
Die Differenz zwischen Buchwert und Aktienkurs (rechnen
wir mal 5.9 EUR) entspricht 14.8 Jahresdividenden.

Forward looking statement:
The public finance market holds more than at any
time before considerable potential for DEPFA.
(stimmt, wenn auch negativ)
Governments are more open to new ways to manage
their public finances in light of the growing expend-
iture demands related to ageing populations. Due to
its specialisation on public sector clients DEPFA is
ideally placed to profit from significant additional
business opportunities that are arising from these
client demands. The scope of DEPFA’s activities has
moved in step with the changing demands of the
public sector; whereas previously DEPFA’s client
activities were very centred on debt financing the
Bank has built up capabilities in added value areas
of advisory, derivative products and structured
solutions. The strong performance of Infrastructure
Finance activities and Client Product Services in 2006
shows that the Bank is well on track to deliver the
right products and advisory services for clients.

http://www.focus.de/finanzen/banken/depfa-bank-wachstum-ohne-risiko_aid_257688.html

Zitat von Focus Money zur Depfa:
Das Geschäftsmodell von Depfa ist genial.
Fazit: Die Gewinnmarge sollte dadurch auch in den kommenden
Jahren hoch bleiben. Die Aktie ist mit einem KGV von 8,9 auf
Basis des für 2007 erwarteten Gewinns deutlich unterbewertet.
Zitat:
2007 (Juli) von der HRE gekauft, letzter MDAX-Tag 2.10.2007.
Kaufpreis: um die 5 Mrd (Aktien und Bargeld gemischt).
Ergo: Ein Kaufpreis um die 14 EUR pro Aktie.
Zur Erinnerung: Buchwert pro Aktie: 7.87 EUR.

Wer übernimmt mit einem Aufschlag von 15 Jahresdividenden
eine Bilanz in Höhe vom 317fachen des Jahresgewinns?

Sorry, ja, die HRE.

Bruckermann, der Chef der Depfa, erhielt für seine Depfa-Aktien
54 Mio EUR in Bar und HRE-Aktien im Wert von 70 Mio (er hat uebrigens
am 14.5.2008 seine Kandidatur für den Aufsichtsrat der HRE zurückgezogen -
aus persönlichen Gründen).
2008 (September) existentielle Schwierigkeiten.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081031/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_7
Zitat:DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan – Intelligence officials say an Arab
al-Qaida operative is among 27 people killed in suspected U.S. missile
strikes in Pakistan.

Hm, 26 Kollateralschäden für einen Mann der Al Qaida.
Das ist sicherlich angetan, Pakistan zu stabilisieren.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/venture-capital-trusts-could-struggle-to-survive-says-study-983593.html
Zitat:One in 10 venture capital trusts face not being able to pay managers
a fee for their services because of the effects of the credit crisis,
a study has shown.

Analysis by law firm Taylor Wessing shows an increasing number
of trusts struggling to survive in the downturn, with one trust,
Hygea VCT, needing to pay fees that equate to nearly 1,000 per cent
of its liquid asset base.


1000% des flüssigen Kapitals? Gutes Management.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTVEGdCJauGI&refer=home
Zitat:Home Depot Inc., Sears Holdings Corp. and other retailers may lose
as much as 8 percent of their holiday sales this year because lenders
and stores are clamping down on financing.

Home Depot und Sears fürchten um ihr Weihnachtsgeschäft, weil Kreditgeber
vorsichtig werden. Der wahre Schuldige ist damit ausgemacht Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Hartford-Financial-loses-half-its/story.aspx?guid={5BD8629F-48D6-4372-B592-00C9DFDFE724}
Zitat:The company reported a big third-quarter loss late Wednesday and said
that it couldn't gauge the amount of extra capital it has because
of market volatility.

Die Firma kann nicht sagen, wieviel Kapital sie hat. Da ist der erfolgte
Absturz der Aktie um 52% an dem Tag echt noch moderat.
Weißt Du, wer am 6.10. dort Geld investiert hat? In Höhe von 2.5 Mrd Dollar?
Die Allianz.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/cds-pricing-in-increasing-treasury.html#c2871834302544597446
Zitat:
Stimulus can really can work at times. Now, no. Why? Most of the
'consuming classes' in the US are locked into bad numbers with the
wrong trajectories. The middle class has seen its wages stagnate
for ten years, and decline in real terms. The working class has
seen its wages plummet in real terms for a generation. Both have
been encouraged and situationally coerced into resorting to debt to
make up the shortfall to maintain expected levels of consumption,
levels expected by themselves and by macroeconomic operationalists.
[...]
What really happens with that stimulus in this context is that
consumption is simply sucked back into the parasitical FIRE machine,
with its loans and cards and baubles and tax discrimination: that's
the point, dope the hamsters so they start running round in their
wire wheels again.
[...]
What the 90% of the population in the US which is not going to retire
comfortably on money rent needs from this crisis is a rise in their
wages and a reduction in their costs. We don't need one shot stimulus,
we need real wage increases. Those wage increases will have to come
out of the fat pie chart of equity speculators and management.

er hat Recht. "real wage increases".
btw: das ist ein Punkt, der auch auf Deutschland zutrifft.

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto103120081944589603
Zitat:Polygon, the Anglo-US hedge fund group which built a name for
investor activism at companies such as British Energy, is suspending
redemptions in its flagship $4bn Global Opportunities multi-strategy
fund while it unwinds the fund and returns money to investors.

Global Opportunities sieht wohl keine Gelegenheiten mehr... naja, ein
Räuber weniger.

http://www.ftd.de/boersen_maerkte/aktien/marktberichte/:Wall-Streeter-New-Yorker-Monsterrabatte/433076.html
Zitat:Als schick gilt, nicht mehr die Original-Designerhandtasche für 1235
$ zu kaufen, sondern die Billiganfertigung für 49,99 $. Selbst wenn
die US-Börsen vereinzelt wieder Lebenszeichen von sich geben, die
Konjunkturlage sieht wenig vielversprechend aus. Einzelhandelsexperten
flüchten sich ebenfalls in Galgenhumor: Wir dürften das magerste
Weihnachtsgeschäft erleben, seitdem die Beatles das letzte Mal in
der Stadt waren, unken Analysten in New York.

Inflationsbereinigt eher noch schlimmer, unke ich.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=CPMIPROD%3AIND
Zitat:Index der chinesischen Industrieproduktion. Auf 5 Jahre gehen:
Eine auffällige Delle.

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/asia-europe-box-rates-plummet-to-new-lows/20017575976.htm
[2008-09-30 bereits]
Zitat:FREIGHT rates in the Asia-Europe trades have crashed to record lows
as consumer demand continues to crumble, with the crisis compounded
by the first signs of customer insolvencies.

A 20 ft container could now be shipped from Hong Kong to Hamburg
for as little as $350, excluding surcharges, compared with around
$1,400 per teu last summer.

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/viewArticle.htm?articleId=20017585735
[2008-10-30, also genau einen Monat später]

Zitat:In the last 12 days there has been on average one bankruptcy every
three days, which is “just the start”, according to Tufton
Oceanic research director Andreas Vergottis.

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/dry-bulk-vessel-resales-grind-to-a-halt/20017585812.htm

Zitat:Dry bulk vessel resales grind to a halt

According to one sales and purchase manager of an Asia-based dry
bulk operator who prefered not to be named there is currently no one
willing to buy a bulk ship in the market at the moment and activity
has effectively ceased.

“There has been no deals done in the past weeks and I see no buyers
at all,” said the manager.
[...]
A shipbroker based in Shanghai also said there had been no secondhand
bulker sales in over a month.
[...]
And the newbuilding market has been quiet since May this year.”

“I would say prices of dry bulk vessels in general have fallen by
at least 50% from its peak in July,” said the unnamed sales and
purchase manager.

He said the value of dry bulk vessels, using a handysize bulker as
an example, was falling by a million dollars a day. “This is just
my guess as no one is even asking for a price.”

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/news/precious-shipping-forecasts-repeat-of-mid-80s-slump/20017585832.htm

Zitat:The Baltic Dry Index currently sits at 885 points, while it hit an
all time low of 554 points in July 1986. Speaking to Lloyd’s List
Mr Hashim pointed out that operating costs were now five times what
they were in 1986. “Just accounting for the increased cost we are
currently operating at less than half the lowest point ever.”

"operating at less than half of the lowest point ever".

http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/home/blogView.htm?blogId=20001008961
LC = Letter Of Credit:

Zitat:Now falling scrap values have seen some Indian banks refuse to honour
LCs, in the fear that ships are no longer worth enough to cover the
sum guaranteed.

mir scheint, dieses Problem muesste dringend beseitigt werden.

http://www.thekansan.com/news/x635410392/Food-pantry-in-great-need
Zitat:“Demand has gone up,” Brazil said. “We used to do 80 families
a month, and now we are doing 200 or more.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/03/business/03gm.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Zitat:The Treasury Department has turned down a request by General Motors
for up to $10 billion to help finance the automaker’s possible
merger with Chrysler, according to people close to the discussions.

ich weiß nicht, ob ich das für weise halte. Ok, ich weiß, ich halte es nicht für weise - damit riskieren sie immerhin, nicht nur ein paar zehntausend Arbeitsplätze, sondern 200000 plus Zulieferer.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3ULWoNehBVc&refer=home
Zitat:GMAC LLC, the money losing home-loan and auto finance lender, will
halt new vehicle loans through its financial services unit in seven
European countries as global credit markets deteriorate.

Zitat:The company will stop originating loans in the Czech Republic,
Finland, Greece, Norway, Portugal, Slovak Republic and Spain,
Detroit-based GMAC said today in statement.
Nunja.

http://www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/:Zwangsurlaub-Porsche-schickt-Mitarbeiter-l%E4nger-in-Winterferien/433442.html
Zitat:Ein Porsche-Sprecher bestätigte am Samstag einen Bericht des
Nachrichtenmagazins "Der Spiegel", wonach das Stammwerk vom
22. Dezember bis 9. Januar geschlossen wird. Dadurch würden rund
480 Wagen weniger gebaut

Aha, noch einer.

Zitat:Dem "Spiegel" zufolge will Porsche bei anhaltend flauen Verkaufszahlen
im kommenden Jahr Teile der Produktion des Boxster und des Cayman vom
finnischen Auftragsfertiger Valmet nach Zuffenhausen verlagern. Der
Porsche-Sprecher sagte, diese Möglichkeit sei 2005 vereinbart
worden. Die finnische Firma hängt derzeit fast ausschließlich von
den Produktionsaufträgen von Porsche ab, der Vertrag läuft bis 2012

Globalisierung: Wenn es einem Land schlecht geht, reißt es die Anderen mit.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1529666a-a9db-11dd-958b-000077b07658.html
Zitat:Fears are growing in the shipping industry over the potentially big
losses that could emerge this week on derivatives triggered by the
October collapse in rates to charter dry bulk ships.

Derivate auf Schiffsfrachtpreise..

Zitat:Traders in forward freight agreements – derivatives based on
short-term charter rates – could owe significant sums if they
were betting on a rise in charter rates for ships carrying coal,
iron ore and other commodities.
[...]
However, Philippe van den Abeele, managing director of Castalia
Fund Management, a hedge fund specialising in FFA trading, said he
expected hedge funds to experience bigger problems over speculative
charters of actual ships.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afRIrkrdlQkE
Zitat: Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in October at the fastest
pace in 26 years as the credit crisis deepened and companies
reduced orders.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index dropped to 38.9,
worse than anticipated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News
and the lowest level since September 1982, the Tempe, Arizona-based
group reported today. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between
expansion and contraction.


Am Rande notiert:

Zitat:``That beacon of light from overseas economies has basically burned
out,'' said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS
Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``We're now at the
weakest point of the cycle in terms of the U.S. economy.''

Export bricht ein.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aaBkIuBgIhkw
Zitat:
Ford Motor Co., GMAC LLC and Chrysler LLC were shut out of the
market for bonds backed by auto loans for the fifth straight month,
adding pressure on the automakers to consider mergers and seek
taxpayer funding.

Der Markt für durch Autokredite gesicherte Anleihen ist seit 5 Monaten
für Ford, GMAC und Chrysler zu.

Zitat:Sales of auto bonds slumped to $500 million last month, compared with
$9 billion in October 2007, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. data.

9000->500 Mio.

Zitat:``They have no access to funding at reasonably economic levels,'' said
Eric Johnson, president of 40/86 Advisors Inc. in Carmel, Indiana,

Ansonsten hier mal summarisch aus verschiedenen Quellen zusammengetragen:
Autoverkäufe in den USA; Oktober 2008, jeweils gegen Vorjahresmonat.


Mini: +56.4%
Audi: + 0.3%
VW: - 7.9%
BMW: -13.9%
Toyota: -25.9%
Honda: -28.4%
Ford: -29%
Nissan: -33%
Mercedes-Benz: -34.3%
Chrysler: -35%
Lexus: -37.6%
GM: -45%

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/verasun-preps-for-bankruptcy-5100.html
Zitat:VeraSun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), a cash-strapped ethanol company
that lost big in hedging corn prices, said late Friday it had filed
for bankruptcy.

Zitat:The ethanol maker said it had suffered serious losses in the third
quarter from the corn contracts and poor margins. Faltering financial
markets also compounded its financial woes, VeraSun said.
[...]
The company has lined up $250 million from Ableco Finance, part
of Cerberu Capital Management, that it plans to use to restructure
operations in an attempt to settle its debts.
[...]
VeraSun claims to be the largest ethanol producer in the world, citing
data from the Renewable Fuel Association and its own estimates. As
of Sept. 5, the company was running 14 ethanol plants that, combined,
had the capacity to produce 1.4 billion gallons of ethanol per year,
or about 14 percent of the U.S. ethanol production capacity. VeraSun
was adding three more plants to bring its total capacity to 1.64
billion gallons per year by the end of 2008.
[...]
VeraSun is in poor financial health, with $1.5 billion in debt,
Osborne wrote in his research note. During and before the third
quarter ended, the company had signed contracts to hedge corn
prices. But VeraSun made the wrong bets as corn prices began to fall,
requiring the company to pay much more than the spot market price
during the third quarter.

VeraSun previously said those agreements will lead to a net loss
of between $63 million and $103 million for the third quarter (see
Green Light post). The company has yet to announce its third-quarter
earnings.


Hm, ja, die waren offenbar sehr Kornpreisbullish.

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=4c47678b-04cc-4762-8dd5-0189e67fef60
Zitat:The natural gas wellhead in northern British Columbia damaged in
an apparent attack early Friday morning as yet to be repaired,
an EnCana official said Saturday.
[...]
The attack was the third in October, raising concerns for the safety
of people living along the sour gas pipelines.
[...]
The town has been the scene of considerable friction between energy
companies and residents fighting the expansion of sour-gas wells in
the area.

Sour gas is natural gas tainted with toxic hydrogen sulphide. Many
in the area believe sour-gas wells pose a risk to human and livestock
health.


ich dachte bisher, soetwas kommt nur in Drittweltländern vor.
Ich hoffe, daß das hierzulande nicht mit CO-Pipelines geschehen wird.

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=1004
Zitat:In 2006, China’s top planning body, the National Development and
Reform Commission, warned about a looming coal surplus. China then
had 2,734 coal projects under development. When completed, coal
production would be raised by 800 million tons, more than enough for
the forecasted demand. The N.D.R.C. made a similar judgment over the
thermal power sector in 2003, resulting in a ban on the construction
of coalbased power plants due to concerns of supply overhang.

But just a few months ago, the central government announced that
it was expecting a coal shortfall of 40 million tons this year. And
that supply crunch is especially serious after the heavy snowstorms
in February and the Sichuan earthquake in May. To meet the demand,
the country will increase coal production capacity by 222 million
tons, raising the total supply to about 2.7 billion tons.

Due in part to a lack of available coal, China has faced a serious
power supply shortage this summer. During the hot season the country
has a power capacity shortage of 10,000 megawatts


Hm, insgesamt ist die Planung weniger als optimal.

Zitat:The coal shortage is also being felt in other sectors. In July,
China’s top 20 aluminum smelters, including Aluminum Corp. of China,
cut production by about 10 percent to reduce power consumption.

Over the long run, coal will continue to be China’s largest
energy supply source. China plans to raise its coal production by
6.5 percent this year to 2.7 billion tons, and to 3.1 million tons
by 2010. For reference, the U.S. consumed about 1.1 billion tons
of coal in 2007. China’s largest coalproducing province of Shanxi
plans to raise production to 700 million tons per year by 2010, up
from 540 million tons last year. The province is home to China’s
largest coal reserves, 270 billion tons, accounting for 25 percent
of China’s total.


Klimawandel?

Die Lösung der Spritkrise:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY6OUZaCpts&feature=related
und das wird doch schon zum Problem:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/07132008/news/regionalnews/pol__pump_up_gas_theft_law_119722.htm

Zitat: Citing a Post report last week on how high gas prices have sparked a
new crime trend, Assemblyman William Colton (D-Brooklyn) is drafting
a bill to jail thieves for up to four years for using hoses and
siphon pumps to steal gas from parked cars.

Wenn uns das Öl ausgeht:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/HealthSci/Saturn_moon_oil_can_solve_fuel_crisis/articleshow/3660236.cms

Zitat:Cassini-Huygens, a joint robotic space mission promoted by Nasa,
the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency, currently
studying Saturn and its moons, has discovered oil and gas deposits
on Titan, Saturn's largest satellite. The estimated reserves exceed
terrestrial deposits by some 100 times.
[...]
Many scientists say extraterrestrial sources of energy could provide
humankind with enough heat and energy for hundreds of years to come
and would help it cope with a snowballing energy crisis.

Süße Träume wünsche ich euch. Wir werden, wenn/falls wir so weit kommen,
Öl in nennenswerten Mengen auf dem Titan abzubauen und nach Hause zu
schicken, längst gelernt haben, ohne Öl auszukommen.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article5051815.ece
Zitat:House prices have fallen in the past 12 months by more than the
average Briton earns in a year, new figures show. The average home
is now valued at £27,000 less than in October last year, while the
national average salary is about £25,000.

Diese Gegenüberstellung der Zahlen ist durchaus angemessen.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3287261/Italian-bond-weakest-since-lira-as-Europe-crisis-deepens.html
Zitat:Investor flight from Italian bonds have pushed the yields on the
country's debt to the highest level since the days of lira, raising
concerns over Rome's ability to finance its budget deficit as a
repayment falls due next year.
[...]
Italy's public debt is the third largest in the world after the US
and Japan. At 107pc of GDP, it is the highest of any major economy
in the eurozone and almost double the 60pc limit stipulated by the
EU's Maastricht treaty.

Morgan Stanley calculates that Rome needs to roll over €198bn next
year as a clutch of maturities comes due. This compares with €173bn
for Germany, €135bn for France, and €57bn for Spain. Four EU
states have had to cancel bond auctions this month due to a buyers'
strike.

"The outflows from Italian bonds have been relentless over the last
year," said Simon Derrick, currency chief at the Bank of New York
Mellon. "It has reversed all the inflows since 2003 and the intensity
does reflect significant concerns about the level of public debt."


das könnte interessant werden.

Zitat:Risk consultants Stratfor warned week that Unicredit has exposure
of $130bn in central Europe and the Balkans, while Intesa has lent
$50bn to the region.

das auch.

Zitat:Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's premier, insists that Italian banks are in
fine health and have largely avoided investments in US toxic assets,

zu schade, daß es auch andere toxic assets gibt.

Zitat:but Italy's financial stability committee has held three sessions
over the last two weeks to discuss banking tensions.

mir scheint, die Realität hält auch da Einzug.

Und dann wechselt der Artikel zu Osteuropa:

Zitat:In Eastern Europe, the brief respite following Hungary's $25bn rescue
package from the IMF was already giving way to fresh angst. Romania
was forced to deny persistent rumours that it was seeking an emergency
loan from the fund.

Rumänien.

Zitat:The country's prime minister, Calin Popescu Tariceanu, may have
inadvertently fuelled fears when he told local TV that the global
economy was sinking like the Titanic. "On the lower levels, people are
in water up to their necks, while on the upper floors the music still
plays on, just as it did in the film. And those people listening to
the people listening to the music, not knowing that the Titanic has
hit an iceberg, that's us here in Romania. That's just what we're
like," he said.

Ein schöner Vergleich: unten in der Titanic steht das Wasser den Leuten
schon bis zum Hals, und oben spielt noch die Band.

Zitat:Meanwhile, Poland's central bank was in talks with the Swiss
authorities and the ECB for a Swiss franc swap accord to relieve
intense strains in the credit markets. Heavy use of foreign loans
for mortgages and business debt has led to a sudden squeeze as the
zloty crumbles, falling 21pc against the franc since August.

Please _what_? Polens Zentralbank möchte mit Schweiz und EZB ein Swapgeschäft über Schweizer Franken machen? Ich hoffe ja mal, daß die
EZB so laut wie irgend möglich nein sagt.
bzw: "foreign loans for ... business debt" klingt insgesamt nicht gut.

Zitat:A report by JP Morgan said Poland was in worse shape than Hungary,
citing concerns that the country's banks and companies will have
to pay back $96bn in foreign currencies next year. Poland's foreign
reserves are just $59bn.

Na, dann Mahlzeit.

Zitat:Polish officials vehemently disputed the claims.

Naja, wem glaubt man heute?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=a_8BXM.7oID0&refer=india
Sri Lanka: 28% Inflation, Außenhandelsdefizit in Höhe von 7.9% des BIP,
Leitzins 10.5%, Auslandsschulden in Höhe von 46% des BIPs, und 3.27
Mrd Dollar Währungsreserven - genug für den Importbedarf von 2.2 Monaten.

Am Beispiel Pakistans konnte man sehen, daß die Reserven für 4 Monate keinen Monat halten...
Und dann dieses:

Zitat:The government's increased reliance on dollar-denominated short-term
commercial debt

short-term heißt mit etwas Pech "nicht refinanzierbar".

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abPM9GUQijz8&refer=home
Zitat:India's central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates for the second
time in two weeks and reduced the amount of money lenders must hold
in reserve in a bid to protect the economy from the global slowdown.

The Reserve Bank of India lowered its repurchase rate to 7.5 percent
from 8 percent, reduced the amount of deposits that lenders need to
set aside as reserves to 5.5 percent from 6.5 percent, and cut the
amount of money lenders are required to keep in government bonds to
24 percent from 25 percent.


Die vorgeschriebenen Reserven von 6.5 auf 5.5 Prozent zu senken? Ob das
die richtige Idee ist?

Zitat:The steps signal a U-turn from the Reserve Bank's policy stance just
a week ago, when Governor Duvvuri Subbarao said a ``heightened vigil''
was needed to fight inflation.

Hu? Vor einer Woche noch Gequatsche über Inflationsgefahren, und dann
diese Wendung? Was ist da los?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122567258950691883.html
Zitat:Treasury and banking regulators say as many as 1,800 publicly held
institutions could apply for government investments in coming weeks,
out of concern that failing to do so could make them losers in a
banking sector reshaped by the Treasury's $700 billion rescue plan.

Depending upon conditions still being crafted by Treasury, thousands
more private banks could apply for government capital as well,
a Treasury spokeswoman said Sunday.


wer hätte das gedacht? Welche eine Überraschung...

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/10/30/aig-afffiliates-borrowing-markets-equity-cx_md_1030markets39.html
Zitat:American International Group is borrowing from Peter to pay, um,
Peter. The government-controlled insurer is replacing the expensive
credit line it received when it was rescued by the federal government
last month with a cheaper one, also from Uncle Sam.

Nick Ashooh, a spokesperson for AIG, said some of the cash the
insurer has borrowed through the commerical paper facility has been
used to pay down AIG’s original borrowing from the government. As of
Thursday afternoon, the balance on the initial loan had fallen by $6.5
billion, to $65.5 billion, from $72.0 billion a week ago. Meaning,
government-owned AIG is essentially paying off one government loan
with another.


Hm, daß der Staat btw. die FED das mitmacht kann man als Zeichen deuten, daß
der Originalkredit (12%) zu teuer ist, um AIG überleben zu lassen, nicht?

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/commentary/guestcommentary?art_id=10146
Der Autor behauptet, bezüglich Staatsschulden, daß sich die tektonischen
Platten unter den Schuldenbergen zu bewegen begannen.

Zitat: while nominal bond yields have declined, the credit risk component
of US Treasuries has been on an increasing trend since last year.
According to data provided by CMA DataVision, the credit specialists,
the 10-year credit default swap spread – a form of insurance
contract against issuer default – has risen steadily - from 1.6
basis points (0.016%) in July 2007, to 16 basis points in March 2008,
to 30 basis points in September, to over 40 basis points on October
27 – see the chart below for the spread history so far this year.

<http://www.prudentbear.com/images/stories/guest2008/g103108.gif>;

In other words the cost of insuring against a US government default
has risen by 25 times in little over a year. Similar trends have
been evident in the UK and German government bond markets.
[...]
Signs of strain in the US Treasury market are already there, despite
the current low yields. Recent auctions have shown poor bid-to-cover
ratios, and long tails (the difference between the average accepted
yield, and highest yield), both signs of shallow demand. Delivery
failures in the secondary market have also hit record levels, a sign
of poor liquidity. Market observers should keep a close eye on the
progress of future auctions, particularly as the issuance schedule
picks up.


schöne Aussichten.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/citigroup-14-billion-in-losses-from.html
Zitat:From the Citigroup 10-Q filed with the SEC on Oct 31st (hat tip Ray):

In the third quarters of 2008 and 2007, the Company recorded net
gains (losses) from securitization of credit card receivables
of ($1,443) million and $169 million, and ($1,398) million and
$747 million during the first nine months of 2008 and 2007,
respectively.


sprich:
2007-01 bis 2007-09: +747 Mio.
2008-01 bis 2008-09: -1398 Mio.
2 Mrd Differenz.

Zitat: As the environment for consumer credit continues to deteriorate, the
Company has taken many actions to manage risks such as tightening
underwriting criteria and reducing credit lines. However, credit
card losses may continue to rise well into 2009, and it is possible
that the Company's loss rates may exceed their historical peaks.

Kommentar von Calculated Risk:

Zitat:"It is more than just possible that loss rates will exceed their
historical peaks during the current recession - it appears highly
probable."

Aus demselben Artikel:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SP-wGou6XqI/AAAAAAAADlo/6vL9YGue3Ds/s1600-h/CreditCardChargeOff.jpg

Zitat:Kreditkartenabschreibungen in %, 1985 bis jetzt.

Noch kein Rekordniveau, aber auffällig.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/euro-fever-sweeps-through-scandinavia-as-currencies-dive--new-rush-to-join-the-euro-as-sweden-and-denmark-moot-polls-981757.html
Zitat:The Danish and Swedish governments have begun preparing the ground
for referendums on joining the euro, as part of a huge political
reversal across Europe's northern fringes in favour of the single
currency. Although voters have overwhelming rejected the euro in the
past, both countries are now pointing to the recent damage inflicted
on their national currencies as evidence that staying out has left
them dangerously over-exposed to market vagaries.

"The financial turmoil has made it clear to all Danes that there is
both a political and economic cost of staying out of the eurozone
and that's why we should join it as soon as possible,


Der wievielte europäische Versuch, eine Volksabstimmung zu ignorieren,
ist das eigentlich? Ich will ja nicht sagen, daß der Euro für Dänemark
falsch wäre (ich will auch nicht das Gegenteil behaupten), aber Wahlen zu wiederholen bis sie endlich gefallen, ist kein guter Stil.


http://www.ftd.de/politik/europa/:K%FCstenimmobilien-im-Visier-Spanien-verstaatlicht-Privatbesitz/432767.html
Spanien hat eine massive Enteignung von Küstenimmobilien begonnen.
Zitat:Nach dem Beschluss der Regierung darf Privatbesitz, der zu nahe am
Meer liegt - im Stadtbezirk ist die Grenze 20 Meter - verstaatlicht
werden. Vivians Block steht zwar 50 Meter vom Wasser entfernt. Die
Bauherren hatten 1964 mit Erlaubnis der Behörden dem Meer künstlich
Boden abgerungen. Jetzt aber gilt plötzlich wieder die alte Grenze,
und damit fällt das Hochhaus unter das Küstengesetz.

"Als wir vor 20 Jahren kauften, sagte uns niemand, dass hier etwas
illegal sei. Unsere gesamten Ersparnisse stecken in dieser Wohnung",
klagt Vivian. Eine Entschädigung sieht das Gesetz zumeist nicht vor,
auch der Weiterverkauf der bedrohten Immobilien ist strikt untersagt.


unglaublich, allerdings nicht der einzige Bericht darüber.

Zitat:Vor einigen Tagen statuierten die Behörden im Süden von Teneriffa
ein Exempel. Cho Vito, ein malerisches Fischerdorf, das vor 40
Jahren an einem Felsen über dem Meer erbaut worden war, wurde
abgerissen. Weinende Bewohner sahen zu. Auch Vivian weinte, als
sie die Bilder im Fernsehen sah. "Seither können wir nicht mehr
ruhig schlafen."

Rechtssicherheit wie in Rußland.
Gruß, Uwe

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