Uwe Ohse

2008-10-29 19:58:17

Alles wird gut! #53 (Digest)

Sendedatum 2008-10-29 19:58:17
Ausgabe 53
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3208dfc-a51d-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:The European bond markets are about to get a little crowded. With
governments and banks expected to swamp the markets with more than
€2,600bn ($3,255bn) in new debt next year, competition among
issuers to attract investors will never be greater.
2600 Mrd EUR neue Anleihen in 2009. Neuer Rekord, selbstredend.
Oder vielleicht auch nur ein Rekordversuch, denn:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bcebf04e-a48f-11dd-8104-000077b07658.html

Zitat:Austria, one of Europe's stronger economies, cancelled a bond auction
yesterday in the latest sign that European governments are facing
increasing problems raising debt in the deepening credit crisis.

The difficulties of Austria, which has a triple A credit rating,
highlights the extent of the deterioration, which saw benchmark
indicators of credit risk such as the iTraxx index hit fresh record
wides yesterday.

Austria is the fourth European country to cancel a bond offering in
recent weeks amid growing worries over its exposure to beleaguered
eastern European economies such as Hungary.


Die anderen 3: Spanien, Belgien, Ungarn.
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/73124/000119312508216521/dex991.htm
Northern Trust hat Geld vom Bailout-Paket angenommen. Naja, passiert auch anderen. Aber das ist ein echtes Juwel einer Presseerklärung:
Zitat:“Northern Trust fully supports the U.S. government’s efforts to
strengthen our nation’s financial system,”

sind die nicht uneigennützig?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/228fca86-a523-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
[geht hauptsächlich um den Kapitalbedarf der Deutschen Bank, geschätzt 9 Mrd EUR, aber dann kommen die CDS:]
Zitat:Deutsche’s CDS were trading with a spread of about 157.5 basis
points, which means it costs about €157,500 annually to insure
€10m of the bank’s bonds against default.
That is near where Deutsche’s cost of protection peaked at
October’s start, when it briefly exceeded 170bp. It is also a
dramatic rise from its low of just above 70bp in mid-October, after
a series of bail-out packages by European governments, including
Germany, were announced.
The next-riskiest bank in the iTraxx index of European investment
grade companies was UBS trading at 140bp. Credit Suisse was at
133.75bp, UniCredit of Italy at 125bp and Barclays of the UK at
123.75bp, according to Markit Group.

Hm, riskiest bank in the iTraxx index of European investment grade
companies. Anders gesagt: Absturzkandidat #1 in dem Club.
Ich glaube, als deutscher Bankenaufseher hat man entweder einen sehr gesunden Schlaf oder gar keinen mehr.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/024a69e8-a52d-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:Argentine pension funds were preparing on Tuesday to liquidate their
assets in Brazil, to comply with a government order to repatriate
funds that could enable it to support the peso, which this week fell
to five-year lows against the dollar.
[...]
The funds will be given three days to sell their portfolios of shares
in companies in Brazil and in other neighbours – valued at 1.8bn
pesos ($540m, €430m, £345m) – and repatriate the cash. No date
has been set, but it should begin in the next few days.

Da hat's jemand aber eilig.
http://blogs.ft.com/gapperblog/2008/10/mrs-watanabe-and-the-sudden-rise-of-the-yen/
Zitat:
The accounts showed that it was common for Japanese retail investors
to be offered leverage of 20 times or more for their cash. In other
words, they could deposit the equivalent of $1,000 and take trading
positions of $20,000. A lot of them had used the opportunity to buy
higher-yielding foreign assets.

Mrs. Wanatabe steht hier für den japanischen Privatinvestor.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/files/prior_dow_prices_relative.PNG
2 Graphiken:
1. Dow Jones
2. Jahre seitdem der Dow Jones zum ersten Mal diesen Stand erreicht hat.
für einen ordentlichen Bärenmarkt müßte der Dow noch etwas fallen, sagen
wir mal auf den Stand von 1990.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/27/useconomy-usa
Zitat:
America's smaller banks are claiming they could be vulnerable to
government-funded predatory takeovers as their larger rivals enjoy
huge cash injections from a $250bn (£157bn) Treasury bail-out.

Kleine amerikanische Banken haben Angst davor, von von der Regierung bezahlten Räubern gekauft zu werden. Na, das Geld vom Bailout muß ja genutzt werden, nicht?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/2008/10/goldman_hungary_and_regulators.html
Zitat:Morgan Stanley and Goldman are - by far - the biggest prime brokers,
with Morgan Stanley the number one.
But as banks, they're prevented by regulators from lending as much
relative to their capital resources as they had been as securities
firms.
So the US authorities should have known - and presumably did know -
that by allowing Morgan Stanley and Goldman to become banks they were
in effect forcing a serious contraction in the hedge-fund industry,
which in turn would lead to sales of all manner of assets held by
hedge funds and precipitate turmoil throughout the financial economy.

MS und GS konnten, nachdem sie normale Banken waren, nicht mehr so viel
verleihen und haben Hedgefonts zum Verkaufen gezwungen.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/28/17543/is-this-the-real-reason-for-todays-equity-market-gains/
Zitat:Gut wrenching declines in US and global equity markets during
October coupled with bond market outperformance will undoubtedly
require MASSIVE monthly asset rebalancing by US pension funds –-
rotating OUT of bonds and INTO stocks. This may have a profound
“short-term” impact on performance of risk assets since the
required rebalancing appears to eclipse even the large rotation after
the 1987 stock market crash.

Ist der Grund für die Aktienrally (ahem) etwa, daß US-Pensionsfonds
am Monatsende aus Bonds heraus in Aktien hinein müssen, weil ihre
Bonds nun mehr als X% des Portfolios ausmachen, und sie da nur soundsoviel halten dürfen?
Oh weh, oh weh.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d44428c-a4e2-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html
[Steinmeier in Islamabad über IMF-Bailout für Pakistan]
Zitat:“I hope the decision will be taken soon. It won’t help to have
it in six months, or six weeks. Rather, we need it in the coming
six days,” he said after meeting Pakistan’s president Asif Ali
Zardari and foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi.

Warum nicht in 6 minutes? Ich meine, neulich hatten die Pakistanis
noch Geld für bis in den Februar hinein... ah, aber das ist ja schon
zwei Ewigkeiten her (14 Tage).
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/72bcd4f6-a4ef-11dd-b4f5-000077b07658.html
Zitat:Kutayba Al Ghanim replaced his brother Bassam Al Ghanim as chairman
of Gulf Bank after depositors on Monday started to withdraw deposits
from the stricken bank. It was the first known bank run in the region
during the crisis and came despite the Kuwaiti central bank’s pledge
to support the bank and guarantee all bank deposits in the country.

bank run.
Dürfen Journalisten dieses Wort benutzen?
Gruß, Uwe

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