Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2008-02-03 14:43:13
Ausgabe 33
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=633485538
Zitat:Sean Egan von einer angeblich unabhängigen Ratingagentur Egan-Jones
behauptet, daß 200 Mrd Dollar nötig sein, um den 7 (??) Versicherern
AAA-Status zu geben bzw. erhalten.


Hm, das ist eine Summe, die viel realistischer klingt als die 11 oder 15
Milliarden, die letzten durch die Ticker liefen, nicht?
Frage: Wie konstruiert man eine Rettung mit 200 Mrd Kapital, _ohne_ daßdie Fed direkt eingreift?

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/02/san-diego-reo-prevalence-above-50.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/02/san-diego-reo-prevalence-above-50.html
REOs in San Diego
Nette Graphik, für die man 2 Sachen wissen muß:
- REO ist Real Estate Owned. Nein, nicht "owned" beim Endkunden, "owned"
beim Geldverleiher, nachdem eine Zwangsversteigerung gescheitert ist.
- Ein "short sale" ist ein Verkauf, bei dem Bank/Hypothekenverleiher erlaubt hat, das Ding für weniger als die ausstehende Geldsumme zu verkaufen. Wird gemacht, um Zwangsversteigerungen zu vermeiden. Mit anderen Worten: Verlust für die Bank.
100% auf der Graphik entspricht allen versuchten Verkäufen, wenn ich das
richtig verstehe.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=511874&in_page_id=1770
Zitat:It found that in some parts of Britain, the average mortgage debt
is more than 90 per cent of local property prices.

In einigen Bereichen Großbritanniens sind die durchschnittliche Hypotheken >90% der Werte. Anders gesagt: 10% Sturz der Immobilienpreise
= Katastrophe.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article3294727.ece
Zitat:CREDIT card customers who pay off their balance each month are as
much risk from being cut off by their lender as those that have lost
control of their spiralling debts..

Credit checking agencies say banks are beginning to weed out customers
with faultless borrowing histories because they can make little
profit on them.


Banken wollen Kunden loswerden, die _keine_ Schwierigkeiten hatten, Kreditkartenrechnungen zu bezahlen, wegen "wenig Profit".

Und wer ist es?

Zitat:
It comes as credit card company Egg was accused of withdrawing cards
from some of its most responsible customers as part of a cull of
those said to have a "higher than acceptable risk profile".

The lender, part of US investment bank Citigroup, wrote to 161,000
customers - 7% of its total base - last week to warn them their
cards would be withdrawn in 35 days. They can still repay balances
over time.


Citybank?
Zitat:
However, credit checker Experian said better customers may be less
welcome in future as banks chase profitable business to offset losses
from delinquent borrowers with rising bad debts.
"Put yourself in their shoes. You spend very little and pay it off
every month. You are not an ideal customer for them," said Peter
Brooker, a spokesman for the company.

"better customers may be less welcome". Can't make this up.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bank-america-countrywide-face-hurdles/story.aspx?guid=%7B850195A9-C3A0-4886-8362-C820317275ED%7D
Zitat:Bank of America's planned acquisition of distressed mortgage company
Countrywide Financial Corp. may have hit a major snag this week
when hedge SRM Global Fund unveiled its 5.2% stake in the target,
issued a blistering attack on Bank of America and asked the SEC to
investigate trading ahead of the announcement.

Ah, so wird BofA also aus dem Kauf von Countrywide herauskommen - ein
Hedge Fond hat die SEC gebeten, einige Handel von vor der Ankündigung
zu prüfen.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/primenewswire/135505.htm
Zitat:The Securities Law Firm of Klayman & Toskes,
P.A. ("K&T")(http://www.nasd-law.com) announced today that it is
investigating the damages sustained by institutional and retail
customers in a collateralized debt obligation ("CDO") called Norma
CDO I Ltd. ("Norma"). Norma, brought into existence by Merrill Lynch
(NYSE:MER), bet heavily on the success of the sub-prime market. Just
nine months after it sold about $1.5 billion in securities to its
investors, the value of Norma has been decimated in the collapse
of the housing market and is reported to be worth only a fraction
of its original value.

Ich glaube nicht, daß Merrill Lynch in der Zukunft noch eine große
Rolle im Markt spielen wird, außer als (wahrscheinlich ignoriertes)
abschreckendes Beispiel.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120182463055033655.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Zitat: NEW YORK -- Merrill Lynch & Co. has bought back, from Springfield,
Mass., complex debt securities that rapidly collapsed in value
during the credit crisis.
The securities, known as collateralized debt obligations, were
repurchased at the same price of $13.9 million that Merrill initially
sold them to the city last spring.
[...]
"The City of Springfield and the Springfield Financial Control
Board have said that neither body approved the purchases of these
investments," said Mark Herr, a Merrill spokesman. "After carefully
reviewing the facts, we have determined the purchases of these
securities were made without the express permission of the city. As
a result, we are making the city whole and we have taken appropriate
steps internally to ensure this conduct is not repeated."

und das ist noch nicht genug Ärger in dieser Angelegenheit:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/02/business/02legal.html?em&ex=1202101200&en=d17d707f1eab8c1b&ei=5087%0A

Zitat:William Galvin, the Massachusetts secretary of state, filed a
civil fraud complaint against Merrill a day after the firm took
the unusual step of agreeing to reimburse Springfield for losses on
the investments.
[...]
“They are alleging fraud against a municipality, which carries with
it much more gravitas than a simple lawsuit,” Mark A. Flessner,
a partner at Sonnenschein Nath & Rosenthal in Chicago, said of the
complaint. An official in Mr. Galvin’s office said the Springfield
case was part of a larger investigation into Merrill’s sales of
similar investments to other Massachusetts towns and cities.

"part of a larger investigation". Hört, hört. Wenn ich in Akten
investieren würde, dann in die von Anwaltskanzleien.
Und wenn ich shorten würden, dann Merrill und Citygroup. Rückwirkend zu
Freitag, natürlich. Ok, zugegeben, bei der City hätte ich das schon imAugust getan, und bei Merrill allerspätestens im September, wenn ich dennmit Geld spielen würde.

Apropos Merrill:


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120191503643937097.html
Zitat:"The Subprime Cleanup Intensifies"
Federal criminal prosecutors in New York are investigating whether
UBS AG misled investors by booking inflated prices of mortgage
bonds it held despite knowledge that the valuations had dropped,
according to people familiar with the matter.

Eine Bank, die Investoren täuschte? Ja, wie denn _das_?
Gruß, Uwe

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