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"Dynamic processes related to ice flow not included in present models but suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea-level rise."

The difference – 60 per cent – could be down to the difficulty in modelling the behaviour of glaciers. If temperature rise were stabilized at 2 C above 1780 levels (the end of the pre-industrial era), the models project a sea-level rise of between 0.4 and 1.4 m in a few centuries.

A differential of 60 per cent would be enough to bring that up to between 0.6 and 2.2 m. (These figures are probably an underestimate, since ice sheets break up in a non-linear way.)

A summer ice-free Arctic wasn't due for another 50 to 70 years under the worst-case climate change scenarios examined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

'Things are happening much faster in the Arctic. I think it will be summer ice-free by 2015,' said David Barber, an Arctic climatologist at the University of Manitoba.

Permafrost is largely permanently frozen peatlands that cover much of the northern areas of Canada, Alaska and Russia. They contain more than twice the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere, based on a new study published in September by Ted Schuur, an ecologist at the University of Florida.

Burning of fossil fuels contributes about 8.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide each year, but the permafrost holds more than 1,670 billion tonnes. 'It's bigger than we thought,' Schuur said in a release.

He estimates that thawing permafrost could add 0.8 to 1.1 billion tonnes per year in the future -- almost as much as deforestation currently adds. Ominously, carbon from melting permafrost is not included in climate models.

Retail trade sales were down 2.0 percent (±0.5%) from October 2008 and were 8.5 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 25.2 percent (±2.3%) from November 2007 and gasoline stations sales were down 22.0 percent (±1.7%) from last year.

But even more concerning for the U.S. is that export traffic is declining sharply. For the LA area ports, outbound traffic continued to decline in November, and was 18% below the level of November 2007. Export traffic is now at about the same level as in late 2006. So much for the export boom!

The key supports for the economy earlier this year - consumer spending, exports, and investment in non-residential structures - are all declining sharply now.

Container traffic shrunk by 1.5 per cent in November from a year ago to 2.29m twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), the standard industry measurement, Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority said. Monthly traffic volume has been slowing since July, although total shipments have increased by 9 per cent to 27.8m TEUs through November from a year ago.

The coal price has halved from the July record of 1,080 yuan after the world's fourth-biggest economy grew at the slowest pace in five years in the third quarter. China may face a surplus of coal, fuels and power within the next two years on waning demand and a ``sizable'' expansion in capacity, Wang Siqiang, a deputy director at the National Energy Administration, said on Dec. 12.

The company plans to cut new-store openings to seven from as many as 30, and will shut six underperforming outlets, Pieter Schats, chief executive officer for Toys “R” Us Asia, said today in an interview in Hong Kong. It opened 40 outlets this year. Same-store sales dropped by as much as 8 percent so far in December, its peak month.

“It’s a hell of a hit,” Schats said. “People’s discretionary spending will be significantly curtailed next year. During these times you have to take a real hard look at store performance.”

A stake of as much as 90.1 percent in Centro will be used to pay off some of the debt, according to a statement yesterday. Melbourne-based Centro faces the prospect of collapse if it doesn’t finalize terms of the transaction with its bankers within a month, it said.

In that context, the Government has decided either through the National Pensions Reserve Fund or otherwise and subject to terms and conditions, to support, alongside existing shareholders and private investors, a recapitalisation programme for credit institutions in Ireland of up to €10 billion.

AIG, once the world's largest insurer, said it agreed to add $5 billion in cash to the fund, which will eliminate liquidity issues associated with the company's securities lending program and facilitate the repayment of its debts.

Berlin - Josef Ackermann warnt vor möglichen Abschreibungen in dreistelliger Milliardenhöhe, die der deutschen Bankenbranche drohen, heißt es in mehreren Presseberichten. Deswegen schlug der Chef der Deutschen Bank zeigen beim Konjunkturgipfel in Berlin vor, mit staatlicher Hilfe eine sogenannte Bad Bank zu gründen, die den Geldhäusern Wertpapiere abkaufen soll, deren Preis in der Finanzkrise stark gesunken sei, berichten die "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" ("FAZ"), und die "Financial Times Deutschland" ("FTD"). Die Deutsche Bank wollte sich mit Verweis auf die "vertraulichen Gespräche" nicht äußern.

Thirty states are at risk of having the funds that pay out unemployment benefits become insolvent over the next few months, according to the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. Funds in two states, Indiana and Michigan, have already dried up, and both states are borrowing from the federal government to make payments to the unemployed....

So-called level-three assets, classified as hard to value and hard to sell, rose 15.5 per cent from the second quarter, according to analysis by the Market, Credit and Risk Strategies group of Standard & Poor’s.