Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2008-12-12 23:47:44
Ausgabe 69
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3692255/Asian-trade-in-free-fall-as-exports-to-West-dry-up.html
Zitat:Flemming Nielsen, from Danske Bank, said exports from Korea and Taiwan both shrank by over 20pc last month. "The numbers are terrible. Intra-Asian trade is in free-fall. Taiwan's exports to mainland China in November were down a whopping 42pc."

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3078296/the-true-extent-of-britains-debt.thtmlhttp://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
Zitat:How much is Britain’s true national debt? Gordon Brown says 37% of GDP, the ONS says 43% of GDP – but this is just government debt. The reason Britain is in so much trouble is that our corporate and household debts are huge. It is the combination that makes us such a credit liability – but no one has ever put together a combination.

Until now.

Michael Saunders from CitiGroup has calculated ‘external debt’ – ie, what Britain owes the rest of the world. It is not 40% but 400% of GDP, the highest in the G7 by some margin. The next down, France, is 176%. America, flagellating itself for blowing such a debt bubble, is just 100%. Japan is about half America. The below graph shows ‘external debt’ – both in mid-2008, and five years ago.


Die Graphik zeigt die "externen" Schulden in Prozent des Bruttosozialproduktes - Mitte 2008 versus 5 Jahre zuvor:
Schulden der G7-Staaten
Und das sind die eher kurzfristigen Verbindlichkeiten (bis 1 Jahr)
Kurzfristige Verbindlichkeiten der G7-Staaten
Wow. Das wird noch interessant.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/3710374/Switzerland-may-have-to-print-money-to-stave-off-deflation.html
Zitat:Thomas Jordan, a board member of the SNB, said the bank was mulling extreme measures to stabilise the financial system and cushion the economy as it falls into recession next year.

"We could engage in quantitative easing and we could intervene in foreign exchange markets or we could buy up bonds and try to influence long-term interest rates. All these options are open and we're not limited in any way in choosing from among these instruments," he said.


Das klingt alles, naja, ziemlich amerikanisch - und weniger nach einer Schweizer Nationalbank.

Ein Bonmot aus dem Artikel:

Zitat von none:Quantitative easing is the tool pioneered by the Bank of Japan to stave off deflation. It is tantamount to printing money.

Japans quantitative Erleichterung war also Pionierarbeit Bild: Lächelndes Gesicht

Zitat:David Bloom, currency chief at HSBC, said the shift in policy was breathtaking. "The SNB are the hard men of central banking; they are even harder than European Central Bank. What they are saying is that inflation is no longer a problem, it's the solution. They want stimulus any way they can get it."

The banking sector makes up 20pc of Swiss GDP, leaving the country extremely exposed to the credit crisis. The liabilities of Credit Suisse and UBS are equal to seven times national GDP. This has echoes of the situation in Iceland before the country collapsed, although Swiss banks have a much better mix of assets.


http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12758009&source=features_box_main
Zitat:The gloom is spread all over the place. Exports dropped across all big traded goods and all parts of the world. Exports to America fell by 6.1%; those to the ASEAN countries, which had grown by 21.5% in October, fell by 2.4%. The faster decline in imports meant that China’s monthly trade surplus reached a record $40.1 billion. Exports last fell in 2001.

Das ist schon nicht gut: Export -2.4% im November nach +2.4% im Oktober.
Zitat von none:The rapidity of the decline is as striking as its extent. Trade growth in October was similar to preceeding months; exports grew by more than 19% from a year earlier. A sudden drop in just a month has surprised even the most pessimistic economists. Some analysts point out that a global shortage of trade finance in November may have exaggerated the decline, but the Chinese juggernaut is definitely stumbling.

Ich hätte nicht gedacht, daß meine Befürchtungen so schnell eintreffen.
Zitat:The consequences for the Chinese economy, which has seen dizzying rates of growth since economic reforms began in 1978 (growth in the 1990s averaged 10.5%), could now be dire. Its growth is unusually driven by its exports, which have made it the world’s factory. According to the World Bank, 27% of world GDP in 2006 came from exports (up from 21% in 1990). The corresponding figures for China that year show it to be particularly dependent on exports: 40% of its GDP came from exports in 2006, compared with 11% for highly open America and 29% for Britain. Thus the potential for a drop in exports to drag down China’s growth is correspondingly greater.

Hm, ja. Natürlich ist ein exportorientiertes Land wie China bei einem Crash des Welthandels stark betroffen. Und natürlich trifft das auch auf Großbritannien zu. Und auf den Exportweltmeister?
Tolle Aussichten, wohin man schaut.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aMtclSyeEF8E&refer=asia
Wie der Titel schon vermuten läßt: Südkoreas Währung brauchte Stabilisierung:
Zitat:South Korea and Japan will increase an existing won-yen arrangement to $20 billion from $3 billion in place since May 2005, according to statements by the central banks of both countries today. China and South Korea will sign an accord worth 38 trillion won ($28 billion), the People's Bank of China said.

Und Japan und China spenden leihen tauschen bereitwillig. Kein IWF im SPiel, keine westliche Nation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aLAJNW1YqWZU&refer=asia
Zitat:Output at factories, utilities and mines dropped 0.4 percent in October from a year earlier after a revised 5.45 percent gain in September, the Central Statistical Organization said in New Delhi today. Economists expected an increase of 2.1 percent. India last recorded a decline in output in April 1993.

Deutsch: Industrieproduktion fiel im September zum ersten Mal seit 1993, um 0.4% - erwartet worden war ein Anstieg um 2.1% (nach 5.45% im September).
Und dabei hat das Land einen gewaltigen Nachholbedarf...

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2008/12/bad-news.html
Der Reichtum der US-Haushalte fällt schneller als je zuvor seit Beginn der Statistik (1953).
Household "net worth" der USA

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/12/12/50376/the-graphic-ib-revenue-destruction/
Schade, schade - daß die Skala bei 0 endet...
Erträge nach Sparte, 2004 bis 2008
Wahrscheinlich kann man das weltweit übertragen.

http://www.heise.de/newsticker/Nortel-laesst-sich-zu-Insolvenzverfahren-beraten--/meldung/120253
Zitat:Der größte nordamerikanische Netzwerkausrüster Nortel Networks hat einem Zeitungsbericht zufolge Berater engagiert, die unter anderem ein Insolvenzverfahren unter Gläubigerschutz prüfen sollen. Wie das Wall Street Journal (WSJ) am heutigen Mittwoch unter Berufung auf informierte Personen schreibt, soll sich der Konzern auch bei der kanadischen Regierung nach möglichen Hilfen erkundigt haben. Ein Unternehmenssprecher betonte aber, der Konzern stehe nicht unmittelbar vor einem Zusammenbruch. Das Einschalten von Experten sei eine provisorische Maßnahme für den Fall, dass Nortels Sanierungspläne scheitern sollten, hieß es.

Ob die da dieselbe kanadische Regierung meinen, die sich gerade durch ein Maximum an Handlungsfähigkeit nach Zwangsbeurlaubung des Parlaments auszeichnet? Die sich im Moment Sorgen um die kanadischen Pensionsfonds machen sollte?
Und über dasselbe Nortel, dem wir diesen schönen Aktienkursverlauf verdanken?
Kursverlauf von Nortel
(Graphik von ftd.de)

Sagenhaft: der Kurs steht bei weniger als 1/2000stel des Maximums.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/12/11/50297/gmac-warns-on-capital-raising/
Kaum bekommen GM und Chrysler Geld, möchte auch GMAC welches:
Zitat:GMAC said Wednesday it could drop its attempt to become a bank holding company after failing to raise the capital needed, casting doubt on its ability to survive the financial crisis. The ailing consumer lender part-owned by GM is seeking a bank charter so it can access the US government’s $700bn rescue fund for the financial industry, but it needs a minimum of $30bn of regulatory capital to gain Federal Reserve approval. GMAC said its efforts to raise the capital through a $38bn debt exchange had so far been unsuccessful and it might withdraw its application for the charter if it does not reach the capital threshold by the end of the week.

Das ist ein sehr gefrässiges schwarzes Loch.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJP3g3Yhzat0&refer=home
Zitat:Treasuries rose, pushing rates on the three-month bill negative for the first time, as investors gravitate toward the safety of U.S. government debt amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
[...]
If you invested $1 million in three-month bills at today’s negative discount rate of 0.01 percent, for a price of 100.002556, at maturity you would receive the par value for a loss of $25.56.

US-Staatsanleihen mit 3-monatiger Laufzeit sind so begehrt, daß man für das Recht, sie zu haben, gerne etwas bezahlt.

Langsam wird diese Flucht in die Sicherheit unsinnig.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/12/09/50222/return-of-the-crock/
Diese Graphik zeigt den Unterschied in den vergebenen Hypotheken in Großbritannien zwischen den letzten 3 und den vorhergehenden 12 Monaten:
Hypothekenvergabe in Großbritannien, Stand 2008-12
Positiv betrachtet: Es kann nicht mehr nennenswert fallen.

Zitat von UBS banking analyst Alistair Ryan:
… once declining house prices becomes the only thing that the UK population can recall, a reduction in demand for home ownership risks becoming permanent. Nothing wrong with that, one might argue. In Victorian times, home ownership was as low as 10% and apart from the Dickensian squalor, things seemed to work well enough. The minor issue along the way is the £1.2 trillion of mortgage debt accumulated by the same population along the way. We believe it is highly unlikely that a nation weighed down by the rising negative equity implicit in permanently declining house prices will be anything other than a deflationary nation.

Hm, ja, wie kann Großbritannien vermeiden, daß 1.2 Milliarden Pfund Hypothekenschulden (Pi mal Daumen 65% des BSP) eine andere Wirkung haben als vernichtend zu sein?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081206.bcolympics06/BNStory/National/home
Zitat:As stock markets dive, companies go belly up and economic fears stalk the land, overseers of the 2010 Winter Olympics have revised their budget, and the new document is full of sober reminders that what seemed fiscally fit just six months ago is no longer so buff.

Die Veranstalter von Vancouver 2010 haben gerade gelernt, daß ein halbes Jahr einen großen Unterschied ausmachen kann.
Zitat:While neither official would spell out just how much of a boost is needed, they said there is no extra money to cover the increase, so it must be financed by slashing expenses. What was once hoped, during the good times, to be a healthy surplus over budget expectations in domestic corporate sponsorships has been scaled back to the original target of $760-million.

"healthy surplus" nach Olympiaden? Ja, klar. Montreal (1976) ist ja schon 2006 mit dem Abstottern der Schulden (jenseits einer Milliarde) fertig geworden, und Turin 2006 war auch ein so großer Erfolg, daß keine Zahlen veröffentlicht wurden. Und die 7 Mrd., die Athen im Minus geblieben ist, sind auch healthy. Und Sydney... oh, und Peking, klar.
Und 2002 in Salt Lake halt glatt 56 Mio. Überschuß erwirtschaftet.
Zitat:The Games' biggest sponsor, Bell Canada and affiliates including The Globe and Mail and CTV, is in for at least $200-million. That represents the largest corporate sponsorship in Canadian history.

Bell and its affiliates are paring back, slashing thousands of jobs this year as they struggle to increase longer-term profits. But there is no risk to VANOC, said Loring Phinney, Bell vice-president of Olympic and corporate marketing: “We are a very stable organization.”


Bell Canada entläßt lieber Tausende als 200 Mio. bei Olympischen Spielen zu sparen? Das nenne ich soziales Engament. Vorbildlich, Bell Canada.
Zitat:As he put it: “There isn't a city in North America that wouldn't kill to be in the position Vancouver is, having the Olympics here in 2010, during the current economic crisis.”

Puh, wenn Realitätsverlust strafbar wäre, käme der nicht mehr aus dem Gefängnis heraus...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=akvj96Z9xjTE&refer=china
Zitat:Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China’s November car sales plunged 10 percent, the biggest decline in more than three years, extending a global rout in auto demand that has caused carmakers to seek government support.

Sales dropped for the third month in four, sinking to 522,800 cars, sport-utility and multipurpose vehicles, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said in an e-mailed statement today. Before August, there hadn’t been a decrease for more than three years.


Und hier ist etwas süßes von GM:
Zitat:
GM, the biggest overseas automaker in China, is counting on emerging markets and a U.S. government bailout to help it weather a plunge in North American sales. The automaker aims to boost China sales to 1.2 million next year, 9.1 percent more than this year’s target, Kevin Wale, president of the carmaker’s China unit, said in a Bloomberg TV interview aired today. The tally this year may rise 6.8 percent to 1.1 million.

GM möchte also 1.2 Millionen Autos in China im nächsten Jahr verkaufen, 9% mehr als sie in diesem Jahr zu erreichen hoffen. Wie das?
Wollen die ihren Lagerbestand an Hummers verschenken und als Verkauf darstellen?
Zitat:Emerging-market auto sales are also slumping as the effects of the global recession spreads. Brazil’s tally tumbled 25 percent in November, the most in at least six years, causing the local automakers’ association to cut its full-year forecast and warn of little growth next year. Indian car sales fell 6.6 percent in October.

Dies ist nicht gut.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aef3HNwXDtNM&refer=australia
Zitat:Wheat plunged to the lowest price in 18 months on signs of waning demand for grain from the U.S., the world’s largest exporter.

U.S. exporters sold 207,576 metric tons in the week ended Nov. 27, the smallest total since the end of May, the Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, bought 240,000 tons from Russia and France on Dec. 2, shunning U.S. grain. Wheat futures have tumbled 64 percent from a record in February.


Steigender Dollar => USA verkaufen weniger Getreide, weil sich die Käufer anderswo versorgen.
Zitat:As demand falls, supplies are expected to increase. Global production may jump 12 percent to a record 682.4 million tons in the year ending May 31, the USDA has said. Farmers in Australia may collect 20 million tons, up 53 percent from the prior year’s drought-damaged crop, the agency said.

Growers in the U.S. may increase production 21 percent to 68 million tons, the government said. Canada is the second- biggest shipper of wheat, followed by Russia and Australia, USDA data show.


Wir können also demnächst mit einem deutlichen Verfall der Getreidepreise rechnen.

Das ist übrigens auch wieder eine auffallende Nicht-Ganz-Parallele zur großen Depression: Der Crash der Getreidepreise war 1928, der Aktiencrash 29. Diesmal ist es umgekehrt - es droht also gar keine Gefahr, das zeitliche Zusammentreffen bedeutet genau gar nichts (Sarkasmus off).

btw: Kanada, das in den 20ern Getreide (im Massen) exportiert hat, und das in den 20ern vielleicht die am stärksten gewachsene Volkswirtschaft der Welt gewesen ist (wo auch immer ich nachgesehen habe: Platz 1 bis 5), hatte seine hungrigen 30er - und 1933 50% weniger Exporte (nach Wert) als 1929, 40% weniger Bruttosozialprodukt, eine Arbeitslosigkeit von 30%, und das trotz massivem Lohnverfalls.
Zum Hunger in den 30ern - in einer der Kornkammern der Welt - haben einige wetterbedingte Mißernten beigetragen, aber ein anderer Faktor war, daß die Bauern Maschinen und Saatgut auf Kredit gekauft haben, und in der Folge Bankrott gingen (ein Teil von denen wird vorher, wie so viele andere auch, an der Börse Geld verspielt haben).
Das kann heute alles nicht passieren, niemand kauft Saatgut auf Kredit und Bauern sind nicht verschuldet? Ein süßer Traum - in Deutschland arbeitet der Mehrzahl der landwirtschaftlichen Betrieb mit Fremdkapital.

Da haben ein paar Mißernten


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7b29a13e-c22a-11dd-a350-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Zitat:Huge volumes of US Treasury bonds issued as part of an effort to reverse an economic slump threaten to stop access to credit by Latin American governments facing financing needs of an estimated $250bn next year, a group of prominent economists from the region has warned.

Daß derzeit US-Schatzanleihen in Massen ausgegeben werden, verspricht nichts gutes für die Finanzierung der Staaten Lateinamerikas.

Zitat:The risk that Latin American and other emerging market borrowers may be “crowded out” from credit markets by a US fiscal deficit that could exceed $1,000bn next year has not been much emphasised in the scramble to save the US economy. But the economists said “powerful and innovative” new mechanisms were required to deal with the threat in order to direct money back into the region.

Wie kann das sein, wo doch Merrill Lynch gerade 2% Wachstum für Lateinamerika in 2009 angekündigt hat? Siehe Vorhersagen für 2009.
Zitat:Unless credit found its way to the region, the economists said governments would be forced to choose between two unappetising alternatives: painful fiscal adjustment that would reinforce the downturn or distortive measures, such as import restrictions and capital controls.

Irgendwo habe ich mal gelesen, daß 50% der Aussaat mittlerweile kreditfinanziert ist. Das ist alles in allem nicht gut.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081203.RTICKERHOMESALES03/TPStory/Business
Zitat:The housing market slowed dramatically in Greater Vancouver last month, with the number of existing homes sold falling by 70 per cent from the year before.

Last month, 874 resale homes were sold through the Multiple Listing Service (MLS), compared with 2,883 sales in November, 2007, according to information released yesterday by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).

The benchmark price declined by 13 per cent from May to November, from $568,411 to $495,704.

For the 11 months ended in November, prices have fallen by 8.3 per cent. In the past three years, prices are up by 20 per cent, and they are up by 60 per cent over the past five years.


Aber, um dem Titel meines Newsletters treu zu bleiben: Alles wird gut, denn der Preisverfall ist praktisch beendet:
Zitat:Home prices have become overvalued in many parts of Canada, and prices nationally may have to correct by an average of 10 per cent to fall in line with economic fundamentals, Carl Gomez, vice-president of research at Bentall Capital LP, said in an interview.

Wo kann ich Carl Gomez shorten?

http://www.seatradeasia-online.com/News/3440.html
Zitat:Speaking to Seatrade Asia Online the Scot, based in Singapore, cited the huge volume of capesizes and very large ore carriers still to be delivered as the impending ‘biggest disaster for bulk’ combined with miners around the world slashing output. With the Baltic Dry Index closing yesterday on 666, Denholm is certain it will plunge lower still, especially when taking into account the perilous state of the banks. ‘There’ll be no trade finance, credit or liquidity for Q1 and Q2 next year,’ he said, adding, ‘Futures for Q1 and Q2 are a dead man’s heartbeat.’
With capesizes now being fixed for as little as $1,000 a day, Denholm warned, ‘There will be a lot more blood spilt.’

Schöne Aussichten: Keine Wende im Containermarkt in nächster Zeit, keine Wende im Schüttgutmarkt - und das nicht nur wegen allgemeiner Krise, sondern massiver Überkapazitäten.
Zitat:One sector that remains resilient in the downturn are handysizes, observed the Pacific Carriers executive as they are small enough to get letters of credit and are short on supply. While capes have been trading at $1,000 to $4,000 a day, handys can still get $11,000 a day.

Große Schiffe (80000 Tonnen und mehr): 1000-4000$ pro Tag, kleinere (naja, 10000 bis 35000 Tonnen): 11000 Dollar pro Tag.
Das könnte eine Marktineffizienz sein.
Gruß, Uwe

Wollen Sie den Digest abbestellen?