Uwe Ohse
Sendedatum 2008-11-24 23:46:46
Ausgabe 63
Hallo,

hier eine weitere Ausgabe des beliebten Newsletters für Masochisten und Weltuntergangssekten. Je nach Newsreader kann die Darstellung weniger als perfekt befriedigend sein, daher könnte sich ein Blick auf die Onlineversion lohnen, die außerdem verschlagwortet ist.

Links: Blog und Digest

Inhaltsverzeichnis:

Inhalt:


http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aZLQ2PxWqK9Q&refer=bond
Zitat:Bahamas’s credit rating outlook was cut to negative from stable by Standard & Poor’s on concern a “rapidly” slowing economy will hurt the country’s finances.

Frage am Rand: Wieso existiert S&P eigentlich noch?
Zitat:The Bahamas’s dependence on tourism, which accounts for more than 60 percent of its GDP, is exacerbating the economy’s weakness, according to S&P.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601095&sid=aT9cscmH.iCo&refer=east_europe
Zitat:Kazakhstan plans to spend 2.2 trillion tenge ($18.3 billion), almost 20 percent of gross domestic product, to support the $100 billion economy amid the global financial crisis.

Government spending will include $5 billion to make discount-rate mortgages available to homeowners and $4 billion to buy shares and subordinated debt from the country’s largest banks, Prime Minister Karim Masimov said today during a government meeting in the capital Astana.

Oh, auch dort haben Banken Giftmüll auf ihrer Bilanz - und gleichzeitig Konsumenten wenig Geld.
Zitat:The government moved last month to spend $4 billion to buy stakes in the country’s largest banks to boost capitalization and liquidity amid the global credit turmoil.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aYK7VtU4C7AY&refer=bond
Zitat:Indonesia plans to cut rupiah bond auctions by a third and borrow from the World Bank and Australia to fund its 2009 budget gap as a global financial crisis damps investor appetite, said a finance ministry official.

Indonesien wird seine Anleihen nicht los und ruft den IWF.

Zitat:``The market is very dynamic,'' said Waluyanto. ``In our experience in the past, foreign investors can come back in a very short period. When they go now, in one or two months they come back.''
Ah, ich fürchte, diesmal könnte das anders sein...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/24/18624/annals-of-bank-exposures-autos-and-shipping-edition/
Zwei Graphiken. Die erste gibt an, wie viel Geld europäische Banken
seit 2005 an GM, GMAC und Ford geliehen haben (der Artikel warnt
davor, daraus Schlüsse zu ziehen, weil die Schulden weiterverkauft
sein oder abgehedged sein könnten). Platz 4: Deutsche Bank.

Die zweite gibt an, wieviele Prozent ihrer Anlagen europäische
Banken in Schiffe gesteckt haben. Mit 10% dabei: HSH Nordbank und
NordLB. Zum Glück wußten wir ja schon länger, daß die Landesbanken
in jedes Klo greifen.

Geldverleih an GM, GMAC und Ford
Schiffskredite


http://optionarmageddon.ml-implode.com/2008/11/24/leverage-by-the-numbers/
Screenshot der wesentlichen Tabelle auf der Seite:
Hebelungen amerikanischer<br>Banken

Und die ganz unangenehme Wahrheit über das außerbilanzielle Zeug:

Zitat:All of those leverage ratios are high. And they
actually understate the truth. For instance, besides the $2.1
trillion of assets Citi has ON its balance sheet, it has another
$1.2 trillion OFF its balance sheet. The only reason I didn’t
include these in my calculation is I wasn’t sure how much
off-balance sheet exposures the other banks have and I wanted the
leverage calculations to be consistent. (I tried to look it up in
their SEC filings, but disclosure varies by company. Citi is
the only one of the bunch that spells it out
clearly.
)

Nun hätte ich das Ganze gerne für deutsche Banken. Oder nicht?

P.S.: Der schöne Titel stammt von FT Alphaville.


http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2446382720081124
Zitat:The spread or risk premium on 10-year U.S. Treasury credit default swaps hit record wide levels on Monday, prompted by worries about how the cost of rescuing banks and carmakers would affect U.S. creditworthiness, CMA DataVision said.
Ach nee? Wer hätte denn das ahnen können?
Zitat:Ten-year U.S. Treasury CDS edged out to 49.8 basis points from 49.3 basis points at Friday's close, according to the credit data company.

Five-year Treasury CDS grew to 43.5 basis points versus 43.0 basis points late Friday, it said.

The risk premiums have nearly doubled from levels seen two months ago after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Prior to the financial crisis, default risk premiums on U.S. government debt had been running in the low-to-mid single digits.


Soll heißen, die Risikoprämien sind um 0.4% gestiegen. Deutlich weniger als ich erwartet hätte, aber immer noch Rekordniveau. Naja, wer _da_ Geld für 10 Jahre investiert, weiß hoffentlich besser als ich, was werden wird.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/nar-re-default-rate-50-of-modifications.html
Zitat:The Realtors are reporting that foreclosure sales - that is distress sales being foreclosures or short sales - have risen from what they thought was 35% to 40% of all existing home sales, now they are saying it is 45% of all existing home sales. They also are saying they are seeing further softening toward the November numbers.

And they are hearing from the Realtors they talk to that the re-default rate on a lot of these loan modifications are running at 50% - that is half those of modifications aren't working.


Zwangsversteigerungen machen in den USA nun knapp 50% der Hausverkäufe (ausgenommen Neubauten) aus, Tendenz steigend.
Und die Hälfte der Änderungen an den Hypothekenbedingungen schlägt fehl, der Hypothekennehmer kann trotzdem nicht zahlen.

In dem Markt ist der Boden noch nicht erreicht.


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=a55.vWF5YPhA&refer=govt_bonds
Zitat:The global economic crisis has cut funding for biotechnology companies to the lowest level in a decade, triggering bankruptcies and threatening development of drugs based on biomedical breakthroughs.

In the past month, at least five biotechnology businesses have sought bankruptcy protection, according to company news releases, and others may be heading toward a similar fate. Those at highest risk have experimental compounds moving into costly human research. Peptimmune Inc., a 6-year-old closely held firm, says it’s struggling to pay for clinical trials of its promising multiple sclerosis drug.


http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=2165
Zitat:As part of the agreement, Treasury and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation will provide protection against the possibility of unusually large losses on an asset pool of approximately $306 billion of loans and securities backed by residential and commercial real estate and other such assets, which will remain on Citigroup’s balance sheet. As a fee for this arrangement, Citigroup will issue preferred shares to the Treasury and FDIC. In addition and if necessary, the Federal Reserve stands ready to backstop residual risk in the asset pool through a non-recourse loan.

In addition, Treasury will invest $20 billion in Citigroup from the Troubled Asset Relief Program in exchange for preferred stock with an 8% dividend to the Treasury. Citigroup will comply with enhanced executive compensation restrictions and implement the FDIC’s mortgage modification program.


Die 20 Mrd sind mehr als der Marktwert der Citygroup, IIRC, und 306 Mrd sind unfaßbar viel.
http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=2164
Zitat:I am saddened to say that the markets will line up one of the remaining survivors for a pre holiday turkey shoot. It has been the history of this rolling crisis since August 2007 that the worst outcome ensues. The market will seek another prey and relentlessly pursue it.
Übersetzung: Nun werden sich die Märkte ein anderes Opfer suchen.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/11/citigroup-bailout-terms-of-agreement.html

Zitat:Taxpayers are conceivably on the hook for 90% of ($306 billion - $29 billion), in other words about $249 billion. But where does this money come from? Congress did not appropriate $249 billion for this.
und
Zitat:Dividends: Institution is prohibited from paying common stock dividends, in excess of $.01 per share per quarter, for 3 years without UST/FDIC/FRB consent.

Executive Compensation: An executive compensation plan, including bonuses, that rewards longterm performance and profitability, with appropriate limitations, must be submitted to, and approved by, the USG.

Oh, wie böse, die Citygroup hat jetzt endlich einen Grund, die Dividende zu kürzen.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19a347e6-b986-11dd-99dc-0000779fd18c.html
Aus der Abteilung "gefällt mir gar nicht":
Zitat:“Sentiment in the banking sector has weakened by the day,” wrote Mr Ackermann, who acknowledged Deutsche was under fire for its high leverage, exposure to potential writedowns and the outlook for its operating performance.
[...]
The letter shows Mr Ackermann’s alarm at the market value placed on Deutsche, which is only about one-third of its book value. “Nothing, either in respect of future losses or capital requirements, justifies the current heavily discounted price level of our stock,” he wrote.

Its shares fell almost 3 per cent on Friday to €18.80, compared with more than €90 a year ago.

The Swiss-born chief executive, who has run Deutsche since 2002, said the bank was cutting leverage, bolstering capital and reducing some of its most worrying exposures as “immediate measures” to address market concerns.


Um den letzten Absatz zu übersetzen: Ackermann sagt, die Bank würde ihre Hebelung reduzieren, Kapital verstärken und einige ihrer am meisten Besorgnis erregenden Positionen reduzieren.

Irre ich mich oder kommt das etwas spät?


http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/11/graphs-fdic-bank-failures.html
Ein Weg ist die reine Zahl der scheiternden Banken:
limit, Bank Failures FDIC Nov<br>2008

Ein anderer die inflationsbereinigte Schadenssumme:
limit, Bank Failures FDIC<br>Nov 2008 - in dollars


http://cbs2chicago.com/local/surrogate.egg.donor.2.870811.html
Zitat:In these tough times, many young women are turning to the baby business. The number of surrogate mothers or egg donors is up 30 percent, CBS 2's Kristyn Hartman reports.

The people at Alternative Reproductive Resources say since the economic downturn they've been putting in a lot more phone time each and every day.

"If we got 50 to 60 calls before, it's probably 75 to 100 calls now," company president Robin von Halle said.

All from women -- inquiring about how they can help someone realize the dream of having a baby. They earn money in the process. A qualified egg donor is compensated $7,000; gestational surrogates receive $25,000.


Bald werden wir auch von zunehmenden Blut"spenden" und Organ"spenden" durch lebende Spender lesen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=abYTR9BqGlBo
Zitat:Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said today the central bank is simultaneously reducing interest rates and expanding its balance sheet in quantitative easing, while not adopting one strategy ``in favor of another.''

Quantitative easing? Was könnte das wohl sein?

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2006/el2006-28.html sagt dazu:

Zitat:On March 19, 2001, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) embarked on an unprecedented monetary policy experiment, commonly referred to as "quantitative easing," in an attempt to stimulate the nation's stagnant economy. Under this policy, the BOJ increased its target for "current account balances" of commercial banks at the BOJ far in excess of their required reserve levels. This had the expected impact of reducing the already low overnight call rate (which is roughly equivalent to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy instrument, the federal funds rate) effectively to zero. In addition, the BOJ committed to maintain the policy until the core consumer price index registered "stably" a 0% or a positive increase year on year.

Die BOJ hat sich also bemüht, möglichst viel Geld von Banken zu bekommen (Zinszahlung?), und hat was konkret damit gemacht?

http://europe.pimco.com/LeftNav/Viewpoints/2006/Masanao-+Quantitative+Easing.htm sagt:

Zitat:Operationally, the quantitative easing policy required the BoJ to purchase trillions of yen of financial securities, including about $120 billion per year of Japanese government bonds in an operation known as “Rinban.” The BoJ also purchased asset-backed securities and equities, and extended the terms of its commercial bill purchasing operation up to 12 months. The combined effect of these operations was to effectively flood the Japanese financial system with excess liquidity.

The BoJ also explicitly pre-committed to maintain the quantitative easing regime at least until year-on-year changes in the consumer price index excluding fresh foods (the core CPI) became positive in a stable manner. With quantitative easing tied to the core CPI, the BoJ’s explicit commitment to its policy regime was much stronger than the Fed’s commitment to maintain easy monetary policy for a “considerable period” or its commitment to being “patient” in raising rates.


ABS und sonstiges Zeug damit gekauft. Ziel: Die Banken um jeden Preis flüssig zu machen.
Das hat auch irgendwann funktioniert (und das ist Bernankes Hubschrauber).

Das wird aber den USA nur beschränkt helfen - selbst wenn die Banken (irgendwann, in Japan lief das Programm 5 Jahre) wieder flüssig sind, bleibt immer noch das Problem auf Konsumentenseite. Warum sollten Banken Geld an Leute (oder Firmen) verleihen, die mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit Konkurs gehen...
_Ich_ vermute ja, daß man besser das Konsumentenproblem angehen sollte.

btw: Das Programm hat Japan zwar aus dem Schlamassel befreit, aber jetzt sind sie wieder drin - und wenn die Berichte über die hohe Hebelung japanischer Privatinvestoren richtig sind, dann sogar recht tief.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/greenerliving/3502220/Green-scheme-scrapped-as-household-recycling-is-sent-to-landfill.html
Zitat:One council has scrapped a recycling scheme due to a
global collapse in the market for waste materials, and is diverting
recyclable waste to landfill sties instead.

Hertfordshire county council has withdrawn a scheme that allowed
residents to recycle everyday items like yoghurt pots, margarine
tubs and other types of plastic packaging, because it has become
uneconomical to do so.


Recycling ist also unökonomisch. Ich dachte bisher, das machte man
der Ökologie und nicht der Ökonomie zuliebe...

http://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/boerse/432166/index.do
Zitat:Weltbank-Chef Robert Zoellick hat vor einer neuen Blase in der Wirtschaft gewarnt. Da die Märkte weltweit inzwischen mit flüssigem Kapital reichlich ausgestattet seien, drohe eine Wiederholung der Verhältnisse nach dem Platzen der Technologieblase 2001, sagte Zoellick am Donnerstag gegenüber dem Sender ZDF.

Nur _wo_ ist das flüssige Kapital?

http://wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=3&threadid=65854#400698
Zitat:A share is itself a derivative, composed of several underylings: capital value changes, dividends, an option that it might be taken over upping the price, and a set of entertaining variable tax consequences, since dividends and capital growth/lose are taxes quite differently from each other and for different classes of investor.

Das trifft's doch ganz gut.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/21/18551/the-steepening-curve-redux/
Zitat:Quite a few commentators have been knocked off their
chairs the past couple of days by the seeming ability of the
S&P, DJIA, FTSE et al to just keep falling, dammit.

What’s happening in the stock markets doesn’t even come close to
the chaos in credit though. US corporate bond markets are
not just crashing, they’re failing. Just take a look at the
two graphs below, from Bank of America’s credit team. On the left,
spreads in the secondary market. On the right,
issuance.


US Corporate bond yields and issuance

Uh, das ist böse. Und eine direkte Konsequenz daraus, daß Banken lieber der FED Geld leihen als ihrer Aufgabe nachzugehen.


http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,591804,00.html
Zitat:Die größte deutsche Landesbank rutscht tief in die Problemzone: Die LBBW macht nach Informationen der Nachrichtenagentur dpa in diesem Jahr wegen der Finanzkrise zwei Milliarden Euro Verlust. Insidern zufolge will sie nun einen Notkredit über fünf Milliarden Euro beantragen.

2 Mrd Verlust? Eine unsere ach so wichtigen, sicheren und professionellen Landesbanken?
Das kann nur üble Nachrede sein...

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/11/20/alt-a-losses-outstripping-expectations-moodys-says/
Zitat:Severe delinquencies on recent-vintage Alt-A RMBS are quickly getting worse than expected, Moody’s Investors Service said earlier this week; the rating agency said worsening trends in Alt-A have forced it to undertake a revision of lifetime loss projections for 2006 and 2007 vintages, as a result. Moody’s last revised its loss expectations for the Alt-A sector six months ago.

As of Oct. 2008, serious delinquencies for Alt-A pools — including option ARMs — averaged 20.3 percent of current balance for the 2006 vintage and 17.5 percent for the 2007 vintage, up from 16.9 and 12.2 percent six months ago. At the same time, prepayment rates on these pools are at historical lows and are currently averaging in the mid to high single digits, Moody’s noted. Serious delinquencies refers to mortgages more than 60 days in arrears, in this case.

Eine sehr positive Überraschung wäre es ja, wenn eine dieser Ratingagenturen mal _nicht_ Monate hinterherhinken würde.

Aber wenn 20% der Hypotheken seit 60 oder mehr Tagen nicht bezahlt werden bzw. gleich abgeschrieben / zwangsversteigert / bankrott sind, dann heißt das nichts Gutes für den Rest der Rezession...


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7739245.stm
Zitat:China has said its employment outlook is "grim", amid worries that economic problems could lead to social unrest.[...]
Chinese leaders are already warning that an economic downturn could lead to further protests by those facing financial hardships.

Mich beschleicht der Eindruck, daß nicht alles wirklich gut ist im Reich China.

Zitat:Maintaining employment stability is important in China because the leadership fears people who lose their jobs could protest.

Meng Jianzhu, minister of public security, this week warned the police to be "fully aware of the challenges brought by the global financial crisis".


Chinesische Tradition ist es doch, daß das Militär solche "Herausforderungen" "annimmt" Bild: Trauriges Gesicht

Zitat:Professor Joseph Cheng, of Hong Kong's City University, said the legitimacy of the Chinese government was built on economic growth.

"If people see that economic growth can no longer be maintained, then the very basis of the government has been eroded," he said.

Die Legitimisierung der chinesischen Regierung sei auf Wirtschaftswachstum gebaut.
Um Mao zu zitieren: Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.

Das kann noch lustig werden.


http://projects.nytimes.com/creditcrisis/recipients/table
Die Seite versucht dem Geldfluß des TARP zu folgen - und stellt den Geldern des TARP die Abschreibungen und Kapitalzuflüsse gegenüber.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/11/20/dont-panic-about-the-stock-market/
Zitat:Don’t panic about the stock market

Panic about the credit markets instead. Interest rate on 3-month
Treasuries at 0.02%; interest rate on high-yield (junk) bonds over
20%.

This is an economic emergency.


Was ihn da nicht nur leicht beunruhigt ist das die Spreads für Junkanleihen bei 20% liegen.

Siehe die Anleihenseite des Wall Street Journals, auf das wesentliche reduziert hier: Auf das Wesentliche reduzierter Screenshot: Firmen-Junkanleihen und bessere Anleihen verglichen


http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2008/11/20/goldman-backs-off-its-oil-super-spike-theory/
Zitat:That ‘’super spike” in oil prices that Goldman insisted would lift crude to $200 a barrel ….? Turned out to be a dagger that has pierced Goldman itself. It never really turned out to be that prescient: instead of the 50% jump in oil that Goldman anticipated back in May, when it made the call with crude trading at $132, the price of a barrel never got more than 11% higher. And has since, of course, lost fully two-thirds of that price in the intervening four months.

Now Goldman is left with the ignomy of summarily abandoning the investors who listen to its research calls, telling them effectively that they’re on their own. On Thursday, Goldman said it was ”closing” its recommendations for oil trades. Meaning that in a perilous time when the traders who pay attention to Goldman’s recommendations could use some guidance the most, Goldman has opted to give them the least.


Ok, Goldman Sachs sagt "wir wissen nicht, wo der Ölpreis hingehen wird". Damit ist der letzte größere Öl-Bulle aus dem Spiel, und der Boden so ungefähr erreicht.
Gruß, Uwe

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